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Implausible: the PA Unadjusted Exit Poll

18 Nov
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Richard Charnin
Nov. 18, 2016

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

Trump won the PA recorded vote (party-id) by 48.8-47.7%.
How to buy guild bank slots wow chumba casino bonus  49.1-48.0% (2:56 pm Nov.15).
Clinton won the PA exit poll  by 50.5-46.1%

PA Recorded Vote
Trump wins: 48.8-47.7% (68,000 vote margin)
Trump won Independents: 56.6-33.5%
Party ID: 41.5D- 38.5 R- 20I

PA Unadjusted exit poll
Clinton wins: 50.5-46.1% (262,000 vote margin)
Clinton won Independents: 50-43%  (implausible)
Party ID: 41.5D- 38.5R- 20I

PA True Vote Model
Trump wins 48.6-47.7% (54,000 vote margin)
Trump wins Independents: 62-32%
Party ID: 39.1D -29.2R -31.7I

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Clinton wins 47.8-47.4%
Trump won Independents: 48-42%
National Party ID: 37D- 33R- 30I

National True Vote Model 
Gallup Party-ID:  32D- 28R- 40I (8% Party ID  advantage to Independents)

Before Undecided Voter Allocation (UVA)
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Trump wins the recorded Electoral vote: 306-232

True Vote: After Undecided Voter Allocation
Trump wins  48.5%-44.3% (5 million vote margin)
Trump wins the  Electoral Vote: 351-187

 

2016-presidential-election-table_nov-10-2016

Election Model: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sGxtIofohrj3POpwq-85Id2_fYKgvgoWbPZacZw0XlY/edit#gid=1141167047

Gender Vote Clinton Trump
Avg 45.90% 49.65%
Diff   3.75%
OH 42.89% 52.11%
NC * 46.64% 50.06%
NJ 54.64% 41.88%
PA * 47.95% 49.05%
MI 47.24% 47.28%
MO 37.83% 57.23%
IA 42.54% 51.99%
FL * 46.71% 48.82%
WI * 46.63% 48.39%

SUMMARY COMPARISON (based on Party-ID)

Unadj   Reported   True Vote  
Vote Clinton Trump Clinton Trump Clinton Trump
Avg 48.39% 45.80% 46.15% 49.65% 46.47% 49.65%
Diff   -2.59%   3.51%   3.18%
OH 47.0% 47.1% 43.5% 52.1% 43.9% 51.1%
NC * 48.6% 46.5% 46.7% 50.5% 46.6% 50.5%
NJ 59.8% 35.8% 55.0% 41.8% 50.7% 46.4%
PA * 50.5% 46.1% 47.7% 48.8% 47.7% 48.6%
MI 46.8% 46.8% 47.5% 47.8% 47.5% 47.8%
MO 42.8% 51.2% 38.0% 57.1% 47.2% 56.8%
IA 44.1% 48.0% 42.2% 51.8% 42.4% 50.2%
FL * 47.7% 46.4% 47.8% 49.1% 45.9% 47.7%
WI * 48.2% 44.3% 46.9% 47.9% 46.5% 48.0%
Unadj   Reported   True Vote  
%Ind Clinton Trump Clinton Trump Clinton Trump
Avg 47.33% 40.30% 38.61% 52.67% 35.00% 55.23%
Diff   -7.03%   15.06%   20.23%
OH 50.0% 34.0% 38.0% 52.0% 38.0% 51.0%
NC 44.0% 44.0% 38.5% 56.0% 36.5% 58.5%
NJ 67.0% 28.0% 51.0% 48.0% 46.0% 52.0%
PA 50.0% 43.0% 36.0% 56.0% 32.0% 62.0%
MI 32.0% 52.7% 35.0% 56.0% 33.5% 56.6%
MO 45.0% 40.0% 28.0% 62.0% 30.0% 60.0%
IA 42.0% 41.0% 35.0% 51.0% 35.0% 51.0%
FL 48.0% 43.0% 43.0% 47.0% 32.0% 53.0%
WI 48.0% 37.0% 40.0% 50.0% 32.0% 53.0%

Pennsylvania

 Unadj EP Party-ID Clinton Trump Johnson Stein
Dem 41.5% 90% 6% 1% 3%
Rep 38.5% 8% 91% 1% 0%
Ind 20.0% 50% 43% 3% 3%
Calc 100% 50.4% 46.1% 1.4% 1.8%
Unadjusted 100% 50.5% 46.1% 1.8% 1.6%
Votes (000) 5,950 3,005 2,743 107 95
Margin -262
Margin -4.4%
Reported Party-ID Clinton Trump Johnson Stein
Dem 41.5% 90% 6% 1% 3%
Rep 38.5% 8% 91% 1% 0%
Ind 20.0% 36% 56% 5% 3%
Calc 100.0% 47.63% 48.73% 1.80% 1.85%
Reported 100.0% 47.65% 48.79% 1.90% 1.66%
Votes (000) 5,950 2,835 2,903 113 99
Margin 68
Margin 1.1%
True Vote Model Adjusted Clinton Trump Johnson Stein
Dem 39.1% 90% 6% 1% 3%
Rep 29.2% 8% 91% 1% 0%
Ind 31.7% 32% 62% 4% 2%
True Vote 100.0% 47.7% 48.6% 2.0% 1.8%
Votes (000) 5,950 2,836 2,890 116 108
Margin 54
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2 Comments

Posted by on November 18, 2016 in 2016 election

 

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2 responses to “Implausible: the PA Unadjusted Exit Poll

  1. jeffreyaackerman

    November 18, 2016 at 7:01 am

    Is the independent rate for one area applied to other areas? Casino theater my konami slots guide best android mobile under 10000 march 2018 to areas where it may be unrepresentative ? Money talks online no deposit bonus rtg casinos will vote at the same rates everywhere ?

     
    • Richard Charnin

      November 18, 2016 at 9:11 pm

      Independent rate is a function of the state party-id.
      Assume same undecided rate everywhere.
      It’s only a model.

       
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