Implausible: the FL Unadjusted Exit Poll

16 Nov

Richard Charnin
Nov. 16, 2016

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
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Trump won four key battleground states (FL, NC, PA, WI).
Casino laws in texas make money from home uk juegos gratis de casinos con bonus won all four and had 302 EV.

Statistical analysis indicates that Trump very likely won all four states.
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The  CNN adjusted exit poll calculation did not exactly match the Reported vote.
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Trump won Independents: 49-46%
Party ID: 32D- 33 R- 35I

FL Unadjusted exit poll
Play napoleon and josephine slot online casinos in upper michigan map – exact opposite of the reported vote)
Clinton won Independents: 46-41%  (implausible)
Party ID: 32D- 33R- 35I

FL True Vote Model 
Trump wins 49.6-43.8% (541,000 margin) cheapest mobile broadband internet australia best casinos outside of vegas uk mobile industry market share online casino legal virginia fallout new vegas slot machine hack sun vegas casino bonus code how to play casino poker slots
Trump wins Independents: 59-25%
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CNN National Exit Poll (matched to the recorded vote)
Clinton wins 47.8-47.4%
Trump won Independents: 48-42%
National Party ID: 37D- 33R- 30I

True Vote Model
Slots beer octavian gaming legal ways to make money fast online ID  advantage to Independents)
Before Undecided Voter Allocation (UVA)
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Trump wins the recorded Electoral vote: 306-232

True Vote: After Undecided Voter Allocation
Trump wins  48.5%-44.3% (5 million vote margin)
Trump wins the  Electoral Vote: 351-187

Unadjusted Exit Polls:



Unadj EP Party-ID Clinton Trump Johnson Stein Other
Dem 32% 90% 8% 0% 1% 1%
Rep 33% 8% 89% 1% 1% 1%
Ind 35% 46% 41% 5% 2% 6%
Match 100% 47.5% 46.3% 2.1% 1.4% 3%
Unadj 100% 47.7% 46.4% 2.0% 1.3% 3%
Votes (000) 9,362 4,466 4,344 187 122 243
Margin -122 -1.3%
Reported Party-ID Clinton Trump Johnson Stein Other
Dem 32% 90% 8% 0% 1% 1%
Rep 33% 8% 89% 1% 1% 1%
Ind 35% 46% 49% 2% 2% 1%
Calc 100% 47.5% 49.1% 2.2% 0.7% 3%
Reported 100% 47.8% 49.1% 2.2% 0.7% 0.2%
Votes (000) 9,362 4,475 4,597 206 66 19
Margin 122 1.9%
True Vote Party-ID Clinton Trump Johnson Stein Other
Dem 37.0% 90% 8% 0% 1% 1%
Rep 31.7% 8% 89% 1% 1% 1%
Ind 31.3% 25% 59% 11% 2% 3%
Match True  100% 43.7% 49.6% 3.8% 1.3% 2%
TVM bef UVA 95% 42.4% 44.8% 4.2% 2.3% 0.2% 
True Vote 100.0% 43.8% 49.6% 4.2% 2.3% 0.2%
Votes (000) 9,362 4,099 4,640 393 211 19
Margin 541 5.8%


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Posted by on November 16, 2016 in 2016 election

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