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2016 Election Model- Nov.1 update

01 Nov

2016 Election Model- Nov.1 update

Richard Charnin
Nov.1, 2016

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Casino boat jacksonville florida earn extra money online data entry uk Votes and the National Poll

Trump has pulled ahead in a number of polls: ABC,  LA Times.

 Slots huuuge casino hack mandarin casino bonus codes 2018 45.0-43.2% with 283-255 EV.

The 2016 Election Model uses nine  polls adjusted for a) Gallup party-affiliation survey weights and b) undecided voters who typically break 75% for the challenger. Trump is the assumed challenger and HRC/Obama is the incumbent.

Deals on black friday 2018 canada cheap cell service 2018 split (27Popular table games casino top us online casinos for us players affiliation  survey (40I- 32D- 28R) and  undecided voters are allocated:
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Trump has a  98.6% popular vote win probability.
Trump is winning Independents by 45-33%

9-Poll………….……………….. Electoral Vote….. Trump Popular Vote
Average……. Clinton Trump…. Clinton.. Trump…Win Prob (3% MoE). best buy canada black friday 2018 ps4 casino quotes car audio black friday 2018 deals casino games for mobile online casino forums uk
Poll…….…… 45.0%… 43.2%….… 283…… 255……..43%
Gallup Adj…. 42.1%… 44.5%….… 196…… 342……..82%
Undecided.… 44.1%… 50.5%……..140…… 398…….98.6%

ABC Poll- Unadjusted

Party-ID  Pct Stein  Clinton  Trump  Johnson
Ind 30% 4% 32% 55% 8%
Dem 39% 2% 88% 5% 0%
Rep 31% 0% 4% 89% 2%
Calc 100% 2.0% 45.2% 46.0% 3.0%
Poll 96% 2.0% 45.0% 46.0% 3.0%
Gallup 96.6% 2.2% 42.1% 48.5% 3.8%

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Party-ID Pct Stein Clinton Trump Johnson
Ind 40.0% 4% 32% 55% 8%
Dem 32.0% 2% 88% 5% 0%
Rep 28.0% 0% 4% 89% 2%
Total 96.6% 2.2% 42.1% 48.5% 3.8%
ABC  Sensitivity   Analysis
Ind 40.0% Dem 32.0% Rep 28.0%
Trump % Rep
Trump 85.0% 87.0% 89.0% 91.0% 93.0%
% Ind Trump
59% 49.0% 49.6% 50.1% 50.7% 51.2%
55% 47.4% 48.0% 48.5% 49.1% 49.6%
51% 45.8% 46.4% 46.9% 47.5% 48.0%
Clinton
59% 41.6% 41.0% 40.5% 39.9% 39.4%
55% 43.2% 42.6% 42.1% 41.5% 41.0%
51% 44.8% 44.2% 43.7% 43.1% 42.6%
Vote Share Margin
59% 7.4% 8.5% 9.6% 10.8% 11.9%
55% 4.2% 5.3% 6.4% 7.6% 8.7%
51% 1.0% 2.1% 3.2% 4.4% 5.5%
Vote Margin (000)
59% 9,229 10,626 12,023 13,419 14,816
55% 5,238 6,635 8,032 9,429 10,825
51% 1,247 2,644 4,041 5,438 6,834
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1 Comment

Posted by on November 1, 2016 in 2016 election

 

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One response to “2016 Election Model- Nov.1 update

  1. Marko

    November 3, 2016 at 6:55 am

    Richard ,

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