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Primary Exit Polls: True vs. Recorded Vote

11 Aug

Richard Charnin
Updated: August 14, 2016

Richard Charnin

Slot machine sphinx gioca gratis slot machine online Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS
Democratic Primary spread sheet

There were 25 Democratic primary exit polls and 2 entrance polls (IA and NV). Betfair casino mobile gala casino bristol (the recorded vote) by  56.6-43.4%. Slot machine simulator fifa 16 710 live casino juegos slots gratis online cleopatra  3x table games beste online casinos roulette adjusted exit poll is voter turnout. 

The TVM uses a combination of the adjusted exit poll vote shares  and the latest Gallup Party ID survey percentages as a proxy for voter turnout. Black friday mobile deals uk 2018 casino con slot da bar was no vote flipping on the central tabulators and/or the DREs.  Bernie must have done better than his average 52.3% share. 

Unadjusted exit polls: http://www.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls/wv/Dem
Gallup Party-ID Surveys: http://www.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx  

Double u casino bonus hunter tropez casino no deposit bonus code state based on the proportional change in National Party-ID  from 2014 to 2016.  The 2-party share of Independents increased from 37.4% to 57.3%. 

Effects of gambling addiction no deposit casinos mobile and caucuses. The True Vote Model assumes that the Gallup survey of voter preference reflects actual turnout. This was not the case in closed primaries. On the other hand, mostly Bernie voters were purged from the rolls. And the model assumes no vote flipping which is unrealistic.

Casino gratis online spielen passport application online slot booking hyderabad of 27 exit polled primaries (including the Table mountain casino concert schedule casino stocks vegas of 12 primaries where there were no exit polls (Online casino games for real money canada casino sign up bonuses with a 65% average share.

Confirmation of the model: IA and NV
Casino roulette tricks mobile casino usa mastercard with a 65% share. Casino no deposit bonus forum winner casino bonus codes 2018 poll with 63.6% and NV with 61.7%.

 

2014 Exit poll Party ID    2016 Gallup Party-ID   
Dem Ind Ind % 2-party Dem Ind Ind % 2-party
40.5% 24.2% 37.4% 32.0% 43.0% 57.3%

True Vote Model Spreadsheet

c- closed primary

Avg  Exit Poll 56.6% 43.4%  True 47.7% 52.3%
 Recorded  Gallup
AL Party-ID Clinton Sanders Party-ID Clinton Sanders
IND 23.0% 54.2% 45.8% 57.6% 54.2% 45.8%
DEM 77.0% 88.0% 12.0% 42.4% 88.0% 12.0%
Total 100.0% 80.2% 19.8% 100.0% 68.5% 31.5%
AR Party-ID Clinton Sanders Party-ID Clinton Sanders
IND 28.0% 42.7% 57.3% 57.5% 42.7% 57.3%
DEM 72.0% 79.3% 20.7% 42.5% 79.3% 20.7%
Total 100.0% 69.0% 31.0% 100.0% 58.2% 41.8%
CT c Party-ID Clinton Sanders Party-ID Clinton Sanders
IND 22.0% 23.7% 76.3% 66.3% 23.7% 76.3%
DEM 78.0% 60.8% 39.2% 33.7% 60.8% 39.2%
Total 100.0% 52.6% 47.4% 100.0% 36.2% 63.8%
FL c Party-ID Clinton Sanders Party-ID Clinton Sanders
IND 21.0% 42.7% 57.3% 59.3% 42.7% 57.3%
DEM 79.0% 72.1% 27.9% 40.7% 72.1% 27.9%
Total 100.0% 65.9% 34.1% 100.0% 54.7% 45.3%
GA Party-ID Clinton Sanders Party-ID Clinton Sanders
IND 24.0% 51.5% 48.5% 55.7% 51.5% 48.5%
DEM 76.0% 78.1% 21.9% 44.3% 78.1% 21.9%
Total 100.0% 71.7% 28.3% 100.0% 63.3% 36.7%
IA Party-ID Clinton Sanders Party-ID Clinton Sanders
IND 24.0% 27.4% 72.6% 68.2% 27.4% 72.6%
DEM 76.0% 57.3% 42.7% 31.8% 57.3% 42.7%
Total 100.0% 50.1% 49.9% 100.0% 36.9% 63.1%
IL Party-ID Clinton Sanders Party-ID Clinton Sanders
IND 23.0% 30.3% 69.7% 50.6% 30.3% 69.7%
DEM 77.0% 57.0% 43.0% 49.4% 57.0% 43.0%
Total 100.0% 50.9% 49.1% 100.0% 43.5% 56.5%
IN Party-ID Clinton Sanders Party-ID Clinton Sanders
IND 24.0% 28.0% 72.0% 57.5% 28.0% 72.0%
DEM 76.0% 53.8% 46.2% 42.5% 53.8% 46.2%
Total 100.0% 47.6% 52.4% 100.0% 38.9% 61.1%
MA c Party-ID Clinton Sanders Party-ID Clinton Sanders
IND 35.0% 33.3% 66.7% 69.8% 33.3% 66.7%
DEM 65.0% 60.1% 39.9% 30.2% 60.1% 39.9%
Total 100.0% 50.7% 49.3% 100.0% 41.4% 58.6%
MD Party-ID Clinton Sanders Party-ID Clinton Sanders
IND 20.0% 43.3% 56.7% 47.0% 43.3% 56.7%
DEM 80.0% 71.0% 29.0% 53.0% 71.0% 29.0%
Total 100.0% 65.5% 34.5% 100.0% 58.0% 42.0%
MI Party-ID Clinton Sanders Party-ID Clinton Sanders
IND 31.0% 28.3% 71.7% 52.9% 28.3% 71.7%
DEM 69.0% 58.5% 41.5% 47.1% 58.5% 41.5%
Total 100.0% 49.2% 50.8% 100.0% 42.5% 57.5%
MO Party-ID Clinton Sanders Party-ID Clinton Sanders
IND 26.0% 33.0% 67.0% 55.2% 33.0% 67.0%
DEM 74.0% 56.1% 43.9% 44.8% 56.1% 43.9%
Total 100.0% 50.1% 49.9% 100.0% 43.3% 56.7%
MS Party-ID Clinton Sanders Party-ID Clinton Sanders
IND 14.0% 66.0% 34.0% 55.5% 66.0% 34.0%
DEM 86.0% 86.2% 13.8% 44.5% 86.2% 13.8%
Total 100.0% 83.4% 16.6% 100.0% 75.0% 25.0%
NC c Party-ID Clinton Sanders Party-ID Clinton Sanders
IND 30.0% 37.0% 63.0% 58.0% 37.0% 63.0%
DEM 70.0% 65.9% 34.1% 42.0% 65.9% 34.1%
Total 100.0% 57.2% 42.8% 100.0% 49.1% 50.9%
NH c Party-ID Clinton Sanders Party-ID Clinton Sanders
IND 42.0% 25.5% 74.5% 72.7% 25.5% 74.5%
DEM 58.0% 48.1% 51.9% 27.3% 48.1% 51.9%
Total 100.0% 38.6% 61.4% 100.0% 31.7% 68.3%
NV c  Party-ID Clinton Sanders Party-ID Clinton Sanders
IND 19.0% 24.5% 75.5% 58.5% 24.5% 75.5%
DEM 81.0% 59.3% 40.7% 41.5% 59.3% 40.7%
Total 100.0% 52.7% 47.3% 100.0% 38.9% 61.1%
NY c Party-ID Clinton Sanders Party-ID Clinton Sanders
IND 17.0% 28.0% 72.0% 53.0% 28.0% 72.0%
DEM 83.0% 64.1% 35.9% 47.0% 64.1% 35.9%
Total 100.0% 57.9% 42.1% 100.0% 44.9% 55.1%
OH Party-ID Clinton Sanders Party-ID Clinton Sanders
IND 26.0% 33.3% 66.7% 53.9% 33.3% 66.7%
DEM 74.0% 65.2% 34.8% 46.1% 65.2% 34.8%
Total 100.0% 56.9% 43.1% 100.0% 48.0% 52.0%
OK c Party-ID Clinton Sanders Party-ID Clinton Sanders
IND 34.0% 23.3% 76.7% 50.0% 23.3% 76.7%
DEM 66.0% 55.3% 44.7% 50.0% 55.3% 44.7%
Total 100.0% 44.5% 55.5% 100.0% 39.3% 60.7%
PA c Party-ID Clinton Sanders Party-ID Clinton Sanders
IND 18.0% 26.5% 73.5% 47.2% 26.5% 73.5%
DEM 82.0% 62.5% 37.5% 52.8% 62.5% 37.5%
Total 100.0% 56.1% 43.9% 100.0% 45.6% 54.4%
SC Party-ID Clinton Sanders Party-ID Clinton Sanders
IND 25.0% 46.5% 53.5% 55.2% 46.5% 53.5%
DEM 75.0% 83.0% 17.0% 44.8% 83.0% 17.0%
Total 100.0% 73.9% 26.1% 100.0% 62.8% 37.2%
TN Party-ID Clinton Sanders Party-ID Clinton Sanders
IND 29.0% 45.5% 54.5% 58.5% 45.5% 54.5%
DEM 71.0% 75.9% 24.1% 41.5% 75.9% 24.1%
Total 100.0% 67.1% 32.9% 100.0% 58.1% 41.9%
TX Party-ID Clinton Sanders Party-ID Clinton Sanders
IND 24.0% 46.9% 53.1% 58.8% 46.9% 53.1%
DEM 76.0% 72.4% 27.6% 41.2% 72.4% 27.6%
Total 100.0% 66.3% 33.7% 100.0% 57.4% 42.6%
VA Party-ID Clinton Sanders Party-ID Clinton Sanders
IND 24.0% 42.0% 58.0% 55.0% 42.0% 58.0%
DEM 76.0% 71.8% 28.2% 45.0% 71.8% 28.2%
Total 100.0% 64.6% 35.4% 100.0% 55.4% 44.6%
VT Party-ID Clinton Sanders Party-ID Clinton Sanders
IND 44.0% 8.0% 92.0% 52.4% 8.0% 92.0%
DEM 56.0% 18.1% 81.9% 47.6% 18.1% 81.9%
Total 100.0% 13.7% 86.3% 100.0% 12.8% 87.2%
WI Party-ID Clinton Sanders Party-ID Clinton Sanders
IND 29.0% 28.0% 72.0% 52.1% 28.0% 72.0%
DEM 71.0% 49.5% 50.5% 47.9% 49.5% 50.5%
Total 100.0% 43.3% 56.7% 100.0% 38.3% 61.7%
WV c Party-ID Clinton Sanders Party-ID Clinton Sanders
IND 44.0% 26.6% 73.4% 50.9% 26.6% 73.4%
DEM 56.0% 65.9% 34.1% 49.1% 65.9% 34.1%
Total 100.0% 48.6% 51.4% 100.0% 45.9% 54.1%

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sGxtIofohrj3POpwq-85Id2_fYKgvgoWbPZacZw0XlY/pubchart?oid=1968941681&format=image

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8 Comments

Posted by on August 11, 2016 in 2016 election

 

Tags: , ,

8 responses to “Primary Exit Polls: True vs. Recorded Vote

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    August 12, 2016 at 10:09 am

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