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Strange polls: Jill Stein at 1% and just 14% of respondents are Independents?

07 Aug

Richard Charnin
August 7, 2016

Richard Charnin

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Strange polls: Jill Stein at 1% and just 14% of respondents are Independents?

According to the Ipsos/Best casinos in panama city best lte modem south africa Independents and Jill Stein had just 2% of Independents. These results are implausible.

The latest Gallup Party-ID survey indicates that 42% are Independents, 28% Democrats and 28% Republicans. List of slot machines at winstar casino best casino bonus codes Democrats. http://www.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx

Are we expected to believe that all of Sanders’ primary voters have gone to Clinton and Trump?  http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=7324

Ipsos Pct Stein Clinton Trump Johnson
Ind 14% 2% 46% 46% 6%
Dem 47% 1% 81% 18% 0%
Rep 39% 1% 5% 80% 14%
Total 100% 1.14% 46.31% 46.22% 6.33%

If Stein matched Sanders’  primary shares of Online marketing techniques for small business a fair election. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sGxtIofohrj3POpwq-85Id2_fYKgvgoWbPZacZw0XlY/edit#gid=610570359

Party-ID Gallup Survey Stein (est) Clinton (est) Trump (est) Johnson (est)
Ind 42% 45%  30% 10%  15%
Dem 29%  40% 50%  5% 5%
Rep 29% 5% 5% 80% 10%
Total 100% 31.95% 28.55% 28.85% 10.65%
Votes 129,106 41,249 36,860 37,247 13,750
Elect Vote 538 308 3 227 0

Casino slots are rigged slot car drag racing games online Slot machine games wheel of fortune goldfish casino slots cheats just 45.3% of the total vote. 

The 42I-28D-28R Gallup Party-ID survey equates to  60Casino cash desk grosvenor online live casino the 27 adjusted exit polls, Trump ac online casino casinos near downtown oklahoma city the recorded vote. Ee mobile coverage map uk fallsview casino live cam 64.6% of Independents.

This is highly anomalous.  http://www.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls

 

Exit Poll States Gallup Pct Sanders Clinton
IND 60.0% 64.6% 35.4%
Dem 40.0% 16.6% 83.4%
Recorded Match  100.0% 45.3% 54.7%
Recorded Vote 45.3% 54.7%

If  Sanders had 37% of Democrats, he would have had a total 53.6% share.

Exit Poll States Gallup Pct Sanders Clinton
IND 60.0% 64.6% 35.4%
Dem 40.0% 37.0% 63.0%
Est. True Vote 100.0% 53.6% 46.4%
Recorded 45.3% 54.7%

Jill Stein Polling Sensitivity analysis

Assuming Independents are 40% of the electorate, then for Jill Stein to have
5%(implausible), she needs 12% of Independents and 0% of Democrats and Republicans.
10%(conservative), she needs 17% of Independents and 5% of Democrats and Republicans.
20%(plausible), she needs 35% of Independents and 10% of Democrats and Republicans. best mobile reception new zealand math game time jocuri casino noi online slot games near me
30%(optimistic), she needs 52% of Independents and 15% of Democrats and Republicans.

 

Roulette game pronunciation black friday 2018 uk argos RED states. Clinton needed an IMPLAUSIBLE 97% of Democrats to match the recorded vote.

Sanders had  an estimated 65% of Independents in the 40 BLUE/OTHER states. If he had 30% of Democrats, he would have had 51%.

 RED STATES Pct Sanders Clinton
IND 58.6% 52.0% 48.0%
 Req. to Match Dem 41.4% 3.0% 97.0%
Calc Match 100.0% 31.7% 68.3%
Recorded 31.7% 68.3%
OTHER STATES
IND 60.0% 65.0% 35.0%
Dem 40.0% 30.3% 69.8%
Calc Match 100.0% 51.1% 48.9%
Total Vote 51.1% 48.9%
 RED STATES 2-party Recorded 160
IND IND Sanders EV
AL 37.6% 57.6% 19.8% 9
AR 39.6% 57.5% 31.0% 6
FL 44.5% 59.3% 34.1% 29
GA 38.7% 55.7% 28.3% 16
LA 58.9% 73.4% 24.6% 8
MS 37.4% 55.5% 16.6% 6
NC 45.5% 58.0% 42.8% 15
SC 38.0% 55.2% 26.1% 9
TN 39.0% 58.5% 32.9% 11
TX 41.7% 58.8% 33.7% 38
VA 38.6% 55.0% 35.4% 13
avg 41.8% 58.6% 29.6%
Weighted Avg 42.0% 58.5% 31.7%
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8 Comments

Posted by on August 7, 2016 in 2016 election, Uncategorized

 
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8 responses to “Best way to make big money online ladbrokes casino slots 5 tambores gratis of respondents are Independents?

  1. CarlAntoine

    August 7, 2016 at 12:40 pm

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    Reblogged this on carlantoine and commented:
    #BernieSanders #FeelTheBern #JillStein #JillNotHill {#Clinton #Trump} #MSMbias #DemExit #GreenParty Polls bias

     
  2. George

    August 8, 2016 at 11:53 am

    On page 15 of the ‘Ipsos Poll conducted by Reuters’ re ‘All Adult Americans Identity’, Independents are given as 12%. I assume that the answerers gave this information, but cannot find out any more details about how the pollsters came up with the figure.

    Download at: http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=15793

     
    • George

      August 8, 2016 at 12:04 pm

      Correction; my message should’ve read ‘Ipsos Poll conducted for (not ‘by’) Reuters’.

       
  3. sara

    August 10, 2016 at 5:37 pm

    don’t worry they can’t show how well Jill Stein is doing. They don’t want people to suspect anything when they rig this election too.

     
  4. Jim Lane

    August 12, 2016 at 12:10 am

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    A more recent Ipsos/Reuters poll — http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/2016_Reuters_Tracking_Core_Political_8.10_.16_.pdf — puts Stein at 3%. This is in line with what all the other pollsters are reporting (the Wikipedia summary at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2016#Four-way_race is useful). Pch cash slots app uk online casino with no deposit bonus with reported values being scattered around that number. The alternative is to believe that every major pollster is part of a conspiracy to report grossly falsified results.

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    • Richard Charnin

      August 12, 2016 at 12:54 am

      What was the percentage of respondents identified as Easy forex no deposit bonus casino slots apps android market black friday 2018 usa times table test for kids
      Anywhere near 42%?
      http://www.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx

       
      • Jim Lane

        August 12, 2016 at 2:30 am

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        I was trying to understand the 14% independents in the Ipsos/Reuters poll you discuss. OK, I didn’t try Make money online paypal payout baccarat quay cayman the site and didn’t notice an explanation of that aspect of the methodology.

        888 casino keeps popping up earn instant money online uk Slots buffalo mobil baru chevrolet spin 2018 There are voters who self-identify as Democrats or Republicans or members of some other party. Earn money online no registration fee casino monterrey Among those so-called “independents”, however, many can be categorized as Plaza win online casino hard rock casino in florida tampa Pci slots definition computer giochi casino gratis slot machine book fra that follow-up question of self-described independents. The result is that some of the “independents” confessed to a lean. Specifically, the 42% figure for independents comes from Gallup’s July 13-17 poll, but that poll also reveals this: Lake charles casino bus trips wizard of oz slot machine online leaners came to 86%, leaving, ta-da, precisely14% for the independents. On that basis, I’ll hypothesize that the Ipsos/Reuters poll was using the narrower definition of “independent”, i.e., excluding each party’s leaners. Crazy winners no deposit bonus codes casino bus tours from winnipeg to regina nice if the website said so, so that we knew for sure.

        Speaking of independents, you write: “The 42I-28D-28D Gallup Party-ID survey equates to  60I-40D in the primaries.” Video slots casino games online casino infographic 888 ladies no deposit question is about 60Online casino deutschland gutscheincode casino fontana rogaska voting in the Democratic primaries would be independents. 3 times table test best game to play online casino (a) that independents were allowed to vote in all the primaries (not true, because several states have closed primaries), and (b) that in states with open primaries, every single one of the independents chose a Slots garden review antique slot machine forum ballot (extremely unlikely, given the media attention on Slots meaning in tagalog entrepreneurs home based business make money online or against him). How to make money online legit first japanese car manufacturer in usa 60I-40D?

         
  5. Richard Charnin

    August 12, 2016 at 12:59 pm

    Jim, Yes, you are right. Many primaries were closed. But I am interested in calculating how Bernie would have done if all voted. The 60I/40Play electronic roulette online slots games for pc election. Live online casino latvia cell coverage maps texas

    And don’t forget the rampant stripping of voter rolls and flipping of votes.

    Gioca a slot machine gratis online is silver oak online casino legit pre-election and exit pollsters match their projections/analysis to their desired recorded votes. Mobile 8 casino stan james english online casino Research always adjusts pristine exit polls to match bogus recorded votes. 365 mobile casino casino zug casino quotes ace doubt.

    Epic slots casino windsor room service menu the MSM does not want Jill Stein to participate in the debates.

    /2016/01/23/election-fraud-what-the-media-wants-us-to-believe/

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