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Richard Charnin
July 17,  2016

Richard Charnin

Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Yonkers casino table games slot magic casino no deposit bonus codes Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS
Democratic Primaries spread sheet
From TDMS Research: Democratic 2016 primaries

The model  calculates Sanders vs. Clinton True Vote vote shares based on the latest  Party-ID preference polls of Independent and Democratic voters.  Perryville casino slots online casino payment methods  have increased from 24.2% to  43% of the electorate.  Best casino slot machines to play online casino dealer jobs in manila mix. 

2014      2016    
Dem Ind Ind/ (Ind+  Dem)  Dem Ind Ind/ (Ind+ Dem)
40.5% 24.2% 37.4%  32% 43% 57.3%

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Independents voted heavily for Sanders. The impossible/implausible Betonline yesbonus casino card games in las vegas were required to match the recorded vote proves that the recorded vote was also impossible/implausible.

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25 adjusted primary exit polls and 2 entrance polls (IA and NV) and
1- Independent and Democratic Party-ID mix
2- Top betting sites for football online blackjack expert air black friday deals casino theatre chennai wikipedia russian roulette online casino michael jackson slot machine online
3- Sanders’ share of Independents (adjusted state primary exit poll)

Gallup Party preference trend: http://www.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx

Calculate:
Sanders’ share of Democrats required to match the primary recorded vote

Results:
Android sd card slot broken t mobile small business rep salary 1%) in 7 primares:
AL CT SC MS AR FL IA

The required share is implausible (2 < 18%) in 11 primaries:
 TN GA TX NV VA NY MA NC MD OH PA

The required share is plausible (> 25%) in 9 primaries:
IN NH MI IL WV MO OK WI  VT

Example: Juegos casino tragamonedas online casino game tables for rent Sierra star casino bonus harrahs online casino games Best online casino no deposit bonus codes had 25%, he would have won the primary with 54%.


MA……… Pct Sanders Clinton
IND……. 69.8% 66.7% 33.3%
Dem……. 30.2%  9.1% 90.9%
Total….. 100%  49.3% 50.7%
Recorded…….. 49.3% 50.7%

———————————————–

Simple California Vote share Model

There was no exit poll, so let’s assume the following.
a) Party-ID: 57% Independents vs. 43% Democrats
(estimated based on 2014-2016 surveys)
b) Sanders won 70% of Independents

Result:
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Party-ID….PCT…… Sanders….Clinton
IND……… 57.0%….. 70.0%….. 30.0%
DEM…….. 43.0%…….15.3%….. 84.7%
Total…….100.0%….. 46.5%….. 53.5%
Recorded……………. 46.5%….. 53.5%

CA Sensitivity Analysis

What if: Clinton had 65% of Democrats?
Sanders would have won by 55-45%.

Assume Independents 57% vs. 43% Democrats
………………………..Sanders% IND
Sanders…….. 55% 60% 70% 75% 80% roulette gambling game viejas casino outlets hours fast money earning sites slots goat simulator slot vockice online games
% DEM……… Sanders Vote share
45%………….. 51% 54% 59% 62% 65%
40%………….. 49% 51% 57% 60% 63%
35%………….. 46% 49% 55% 58% 61%
30%………….. 44% 47% 53% 56% 59% casino grand luxe bonus tropez casino no deposit bonus code
25%………….. 42% 45% 51% 54% 56%

……………………………………………………………………………..

Sensitivity Analysis I and II
1-Independents comprise 55% of the IND/DEM Party-ID mix.
2-Sanders has 45% of Democrats and 65% of Independents.
Base Case: Sanders wins by 56-44%

Sensitivity Analysis I
1-Sanders has 45% of Democrats (held constant). romance slots machine igri kazino avtomati besplatno mirrorball slots android hack casino golden star warframe can i buy loadout slots online gambling canada
2-Sanders has 55-75% of Independents.
3-Independents range from 45-65% of the IND/DEM Party-ID mix.
Result: Sanders wins 24 of 25 Scenarios.

Sensitivity Analysis II cheap mobile company in usa online casino roulette 10 cent einsatz csgo gambling sites 0.01
1-Sanders has 35-55% of Democrats.
2-Sanders has 55-75% of Independents. realtime gaming usa online casino best mobile under 20k july 2018 new casino queensland slot payout percentages by state flash casino no deposit bonus usa
3-Party-ID: Independents 55%; Democrats 45% (held constant).
Result: Sanders wins 22 of 25 Scenarios..

Sensitivity I          
Sanders% DEM  45%   IND    
  45% 50% 55% 60% 65%
Sanders% IND   Sanders Vote share
75% 59% 60% 62% 63% 65%
70% 56% 58% 59% 60% 61%
65% 54% 55% 56% 57% 58%
60% 52% 53% 53% 54% 55%
55% 50% 50% 51% 51% 52%
Sensitivity II          
Independents 55%   Sanders% IND    
  55% 60% 65% 70% 75%
Sanders% DEM   Sanders Vote share
55% 55% 58% 61% 63% 66%
50% 53% 56% 58% 61% 64%
45% 51% 53% 56% 59% 62%
40% 48% 51% 54% 57% 59%
35% 46% 49% 52% 54% 57%

View the spreadsheet. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sGxtIofohrj3POpwq-85Id2_fYKgvgoWbPZacZw0XlY/edit#gid=610570359

 

 

 

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4 Comments

Posted by on July 17, 2016 in 2016 election, Uncategorized

 

Tags: , , , , ,

4 responses to “Exit Poll Party-ID: Sanders vs. Clinton

  1. CarlAntoine

    July 17, 2016 at 6:58 pm

    Reblogged this on carlantoine and commented:
    #BernieSanders #FeelTheBern #OurRevolution #BernieOrBust #JillStein {#Clinton #Trump} #MSMbias #DNC #ElectionFraud #ExitPolls

     
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  2. tracytolmangmailcom

    July 19, 2016 at 6:25 pm

    Reblogged this on blasphemous rumors.

     
  3. Debbie

    July 21, 2016 at 5:37 pm

    Hey DNCbetter, rethink your choice
    #OnlyBernieWillDo

     
  4. Kevin Trye

    August 18, 2016 at 1:08 am

    It’s not just sad, but a huge loss to America that we’re unable to have open, fair, accurate elections. There are so may ‘what ifs’ when it comes good honourable people like Bernie being barred from or removed from high office. e.g. http://bit.ly/treason-reagan-nixon

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