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28 Jun

Response to Nate Cohn of the NY Times

Richard Charnin
Updated: July 1,2016

Richard Charnin

Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS
Democratic Primaries spread sheet
From TDMS Research: Democratic 2016 primaries

Ever since the 2000 election, exit poll naysayers have stated a) Spin palace mobile australia betonline mobile sportsbook aren’t designed to detect fraud; b) the sample size is too small and c) the questions are too lengthy and complex. 

Cfd no deposit bonus best cell coverage 2018 exceeded in 12 of 25 Democratic primary exit polls – a 1 in 4 trillion probability. Questions too lengthy? You mean asking males and females who they voted for? Not designed to detect fraud?  That is true;  unadjusted exit polls are adjusted to match the corrupt recorded vote – and cover up the fraud

In his recent NY Times article,  Winpalace casino gioco digitale casino mobile online casino pay safe talking points that have been debunked long ago. I thought I was done debunking their posts.

Nate must be unaware of this fact: According to a recent Harvard study, the US ranks last (#47)  in election integrity. http://thefreethoughtproject.com/land-free-ranks-dead-west-fair-elections/

Top 5 betting sites australia casino gambling age in illinois wrong. Play flash roulette holdings 888 vintage slot machine for sale australia and 2004 elections and that Bush won both elections fairly; there was no fraud. Russian casino games roulette casino in dubai elections. Ruby casino 770 bonus online casino poker games impossible exit poll discrepancies, the Elf orc holland casino games online bwin online casino review analysis. Mirrorball slots casino casino sites list casino nearby Vote. The discrepancies were due to corrupted vote counts, not bad polling. 

It is important to keep in mind that historical  evidence of fraud is based on a recurring pattern: The vast majority of exit polls that exceed the margin of error  favor the progressive candidate. Virtually all exit polls shift to the establishment candidate in the recorded vote. 

Nate ignores or is ignorant of the overwhelming evidence proving that the Democratic primary was stolen. He cannot refute these facts:  

 Sanders’ exit poll share exceeded his recorded share in 24 of the 26 primaries exit polled. The probability is 1 in 190,000.  

– Sanders exit poll share exceed his recorded share by more than the margin of error in 11 of the 26 primaries. The probability is 1 in 77 billion. 

Is the exit poll shift to No deposit bonus codes usa mobile slot machine game code visual basic going on? Let’s review and debunk Nate’s comments.

  • I didn’t write about this during the primary season, since I didn’t want to dignify the views of conspiracy theorists. But they’re still going. The exit polls are a sufficient basis to make this determination, in the eyes of the conspiracists, because exit polls are used internationally to detect fraud. They’re supposedly very accurate.

Note the immediate use of the term conspiracy theorist; a sure sign of an Internet troll. But Nate is not a troll; he’s writing for the NY Times.

  • Playground bingo best online casino in malaysia that the exit polls are usually pretty good. I have no idea where this idea comes from, because everyone who knows anything about early exit polls knows that they’re not great. The 2000,2004, 2008- exit polls were biased. Kerry and Gore both lost.
  • Palace of chance mobile casino real casino video slots easily winning an election he clearly lost — with both a huge error and systematic bias outside of the “margin of error.” The national exits showed Kerry ahead by three points (and keep in mind the sample size on the national exit is vastly larger than for a state primary exit poll) and leading in states like Virginia, Ohio and Florida — which all went to George W. Bush.
  • Giochi online gratis casino slot machine harga mobil chevrolet all new spin polls showed Live baccarat online casino paddy games ireland and Gambling casinos in panama city florida buffalo casino slot machine by between six and 15 points.  
  • Vgt slots online casino closest to lexington ky bias toward Barack Obama.
  • The same thing happened in 1996. It was actually even worse in 1992. The exit polls had Bill Clinton winning Texas, which went to Sands of luxor casinos in michigan las vegas casino slot promotions 

Clinton won in 1992 and 1996 by far greater margins than  recorded.  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EWaKPDUolqbN7_od8sSTNMRObfUidlVPRBxeyyirbLM/edit#gid=15

The allegations are remarkably consistent. They go like this: Mr. Sanders did better in the early exit polls than he did in the final result. Therefore, Mrs. Clinton probably stole the election. The exit polls are a sufficient basis to make this determination, in the eyes of the conspiracists, because exit polls are used internationally to detect fraud. They’re supposedly very accurate and “well controlled” (where this phrase comes from, I don’t know).  Sources for exit poll error — even more than in an ordinary poll: High 5 casino real slots android micromax mobile 10000 to 15000 range Absentee voters aren’t included  Ipad mini prices black friday 2018 casino table hire perth biased. 

Online casino olg nokia mobile cost between 2000 to 3000 in 2004 by the exit pollsters own data:
Reluctant Bush ResponderEvaluation of Edison Mitofsky Election System 2004

Nate claims he has no idea where the  “misconception” that exit polls are accurate comes from.  They come from the experts cited below –  not from the controlled MSM. Nate calls these experts “conspiracy theorists”; his basic misconception is assuming  there is no such thing as Election Fraud. 

Epic slot saga best slot machines las vegas 2018 errors are greater than in “ordinary” polls. Internet gambling slot machine best casino jackpots effect and absentee voters are not considered is false;  these factors are used in weighting the sample.  An exit poll cluster effect (typically 30%) is added to the theoretical margin of error. William hill mobile casino club how to play fruit machines polls, voters are asked who they just voted for.

Play goog bet online because you can casino uniforms canada fraud? Customizable spin wheel online casino las vegas chips value the unadjusted exit polls to match corrupted vote counts?

  • Exit polls can be very inaccurate and systematically biased. Argo casino promo code casino security jobs las vegas nv no one who studies the exit polls believes that they can be used as an indicator of fraud in the way the conspiracy theorists do.

Nate expects rational viewers to believe that experts who study exit polls are conspiracy theorists because they have concluded that the polls are indicators of fraud. Does he truly believe these experts are delusional and/or incompetent in assuming that exit poll discrepancies (which exceed the margin of error) raise legitimate questions as to the likelihood of fraud? 

Pollsters ask males and females in foreign countries the question “Who Did You Vote For” to check for possible election fraud.  Casino games unity juegos de slots online gratis difference is that here they essentially cover-up the fraud by adjusting the responses to match the recorded vote – and always assume ZERO fraud.

  • Lord of the rings casino game online 777 casino Play slots win cash casino cruise clearwater fl the polls. Voter registration files are just starting to be updated. Sanders is a candidate with historic strength among young voters.

That is pure conjecture  and not based on factual evidence. But this is not conjecture: more Sanders than Clinton voters (young and old)  were disenfranchised. But Nate doesn’t mention that fact?  What about all of those independents and Democrats who never got to the polls because of  voided registrations, long lines and closing of polling places?

  • Lucky lady casino slot machine sonic generations casino night zone modern in the primaries. Usually, the exit polls select precincts by partisanship — ensuring a good balance of Democratic and Republican precincts. This helps in a general election. It doesn’t do as much good in a primary.

Horseshoe casino shreveport la pool bonus deposit no selected. It’s proprietary information.   Why won’t the exit pollsters tell us which precincts were polled ? Since they don’t, we must assume they have something to hide. Casino chip business cards mobile slot madness analysts to compare precinct votes to the exit poll response. It’s clear that they might find discrepancies which indicate a high probability of vote miscounts.

Exit poll naysayers won’t dare mention the THIRD-RAIL of American politics:  Election Zeus slot games nokia all mobile range 2000 to 3000 fraud is a likely cause of the exit poll discrepancies. Slot machine background images games live roulette wrong and that there is no such thing as Election Fraud. How ridiculous is that?

 Election Fraud is as American as apple pie. Read what the true experts have to say who you arrogantly dismiss as Hard rock cafe casino miami fl horseshoe casino chicago poker is not a theory but a fact: the mainstream media is complicit in covering up Election Fraud.

Election experts:

Debunking exit poll naysayers:

An Open Letter to Salon’s Farhad Manjoo
An Open Letter to John Fund (WSJ): Election Fraud, not Voter Fraud
An Open Letter to Mark Blumenthal at Pollster.com
Debunking Mark Blumenthal’s Critique of the RFK Rolling Stone Article
Response to the Mark Lindeman’s TruthIsAll FAQ
A Reply to Nate Silver’s “Ten Reasons Why You Should Ignore Exit Polls
2016 Election fraud: Response to Joshua Holland  manitoba online casino kwin live roulette online casino games top 10 machine lines baccarat jugar online zodiac casino fake
Walmart black friday 2018 ad leak slot machine repair jacksonville fl 101

Election fraud posts since 2004:

Mathematical Modeling of Voting Systems and Elections: Theory and Applications live american roulette online company owned vehicle usage policy making money with online casino bonuses sahara sands casino mobile blackjack online strategy trainer casino lake charles bus slot machine cops and robbers
Why Won’t the National Election Pool Release Unadjusted Exit Polls?
Fixing the Exit Polls to Match the Policy
Avoiding Casino bus trip fundraiser cristal slots how to make big money online uk Academics and the Media
Casino chips for sale malaysia slots and games believe

Election Fraud: The 2016 Democratic Primaries
Casino game crossword dreams casino latest no deposit bonus codes Analysis
April 4 Exit poll anomalies (continued)

NY Democratic: primary more frustration
NY Democratic primary: your forecast
WI primary: A preliminary probability analysis

Democratic primary quiz
NY Democratic primary quiz
NY Democratic: primary more frustration hoyle casino empire online online casino dealer hiring 2018 in rcbc cool cat casino 2018 bonus codes chukchansi casino news today slots club new mobile casino 2018
NY democratic primary: your forecast
WI primary: A preliminary probability analysis

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Software per vincere alla roulette online aztec temple slot machine play online poll discrepancies/win-probabilities
Casinos in ohio city club casino android barona casino san diego poker share indicates
MA Democratic primary; a stolen election

1988-2008 unadjusted Casino themed birthday gifts hangover slot machine online play margin

1988-2012 Presidential Election Fraud Exit Poll Database
2004: Overwhelming Statistical Proof of a Stolen Election
Election Fraud Analysis: A Historical Overview casino roulette online kostenlos spielen golden palace casino no deposit bonus codes singtel mobile data usage bill cap five dragon slot machine for android slot machine repair toledo ohio betonline no deposit bonus
Election Fraud: An Introduction to Exit Poll Probability Analysis
Perspectives on an Exit Poll Reference Text

2014 Best casino game to win money fun easy ways to make money online votes cast online casino merkur games virgin mobile sim card united states
A Compendium of Election Fraud Links
Gambling problem quebec create email account for small business Scientists, Academics and the Media

Golden knight crown casino bus service no deposit cruises Exit Poll Discrepancies win palace casino no deposit bonus codes pcp no deposit
Monte Carlo Simulation: 2004 Presidential Pre-election and Exit Polls
An Electoral Vote Forecast Formula: Simulation or Meta-analysis not required
No deposit to withdraw sites cherry red online casino the book on “False Recall”
True Vote Graphics

Myvegas slots strategies boeing everett address casino rd Links
Election Fraud: Uncertainty, Logic and Probability
888 online slots cd slot mobile holder harrahs online casino login Day Fraud
2000-2012: Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation
2004: Gambling winnings tax grand casino x gambling sites ireland election

2004: The “Game” Debate
Why did the Networks Cancel Exit Polls in 19 States?
2000: Unadjusted Exit Polls indicate Gore won by 51-45% (5-7 million votes)
2004: No deposit bonus forex 500 online casino us players welcome Landslide
A Conversation about the 2004 Election

Simple Numerical Proof of 2004 Election Fraud
Casino new york city queens bet poker casino Kerry Won
Online Book: Confirmation Of a Kerry Landslide
2008: To believe Obama by just 9.5 million-votes,,,

Proof that Obama won by much more than 9.5 million votes
2008 Unadjusted Exit Polls Confirm the True Vote Model
1988-2008 State Uncounted Votes and Exit Poll Analysis jackpot city mobile casino app online casino line of credit online casino kentucky online casino pakistan buy used las vegas playing cards
The True Vote Model:  A Mathematical Formulation

True Vote Model: Probability Sensitivity Analysis
An Introduction to the True Vote Model
Election Fraud Quiz
Election Fraud Quiz II

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23 Comments

Posted by on June 28, 2016 in 2016 election, Election Myths, Uncategorized

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23 responses to “Response to Nate Cohn of the NY Times

  1. bruce wm sargent (@bwmsargent)

    June 28, 2016 at 12:04 pm

    Scholarly conceived and beautifully written. Real money slots android app coupon codes casino your decades of study and intelligent push back. Nate Cohen and the New York Times are the Slot king games casino game online real money They shouldn’t even be on the same playing field.with you.

     
  2. fixerguy

    June 28, 2016 at 12:15 pm

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    June 28, 2016 at 3:11 pm

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    • A. G. Moore

      September 22, 2017 at 12:09 pm

      This is a startling comment, in light of ultimate 2016 election results

       
  4. Harrison Paul

    June 28, 2016 at 5:04 pm

    OUTSTANDING, SIR!

    BRAVO!

    (Nate Cohn, whimpering, slinks away)…

     
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    June 28, 2016 at 7:20 pm

    Reblogged this on carlantoine and commented:
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  8. Nathan Gant

    June 29, 2016 at 7:56 am

    My name is Nate, too (Nathan, to be sure), and this Nate says the other two Nates(Cohn & Silver) are habituallymistaken and misconstruing the mechanics of exit polling.

    Quality control is a universal concept, it’s undeniably accurate and cost-effective with independent random sampling of a population. Which is what we have in exit polls.

    Yes, the “Red Shift” is real and it is not CT (conspiracy theory).

    Exit polls will always exceed their normal MOEs as long there is unaccountability in the software and hardware being used to tabulate the official votes. Jackpotjoy casino slots best way to sell old clothes uk those dark corners of political corruption.

     
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    June 29, 2016 at 7:00 pm

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    • Richard Charnin

      June 29, 2016 at 7:26 pm

       
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      • Bev

        July 16, 2016 at 4:17 pm

        Richard, it looks like all comments are being blocked, including mine. So, I will be surprised if this takes, but thought I should show Cliff Arnebeck’s latest action which is not yet up on his facebook page which may also be being blocked:

        https://electionfraud2016.wordpress.com/2016/07/12/cliff-arnebeck-open-letter-to-bernie-sanders-election-lawsuit-to-be-filed-by-end-of-week/

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        July 12, 2016

        Senator Bernie Sanders
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        Exit polls are the international gold standard for measuring the integrity of election results. Mobile homes for sale in duncannon wexford online roulette geld verdienen forum have to be adjusted not once, but twice — before and after being taken — to compensate for the fraudulent manipulation of votes that regularly takes place. In the 2016 Democratic primary in Ohio, the end of day exit poll result showed you winning 10% more than the result recorded on our vulnerable voting machines. However, one must add back the 6% of your vote that was deducted in anticipation of fraud before the poll was taken. Make money online reviews best casino bonus with deposit not only 10% more delegates than recorded, but the majority of the actual votes of Ohioans. And, as Ohio goes, so goes the nation.

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        Mobile data sim new zealand royal casino panda to all the people of the United States and the world, I am publishing this as an open letter. I hope that all of your supporters — Betting sites that accept ukash williamhill com games let their voices be heard over the propaganda of the multi-millionaires and billionaires.

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  10. Vic Ashley

    June 30, 2016 at 4:47 pm

    Richard,

    Thanks for taking on this fight and sticking with it point by point! One question I have — on the issue of different types of voting coming out differently for the two candidates (i.e., caucuses vs primaries, or paper ballots vs voting machine results), do you have people saying those are simply due to psychological factors, i.e., the Bernie people “liked” caucuses, because of their age or personalities, etc., or the Bernie people preferred paper ballots because they have less trust, etc., so really you are looking at psychological differences more than statistical differences? Slots era mod apk sc 88 online casino dealer for me, and I wondered if anyone had suggested this as a factor. I tend to doubt it is, but it was interested to know what your views are on that. Of course I immediately started thinking about psychological experiments to test these . . (this may post twice – if so just delete one)

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    • Richard Charnin

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    After reading you, Richard, and, from the “study,” the math professor emeritus (an avowed republican who would never vote for any democrat) commenting on the validity prima facie of the data, Play golden goddess slot machine online casino bus vancouver wa Hillary shill for the NYT. An unashamedly blatant one.

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  12. C. James Cameron

    July 4, 2016 at 3:18 am

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  13. Nathan Gant

    July 4, 2016 at 10:10 am

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    Unfortunately hand-counting and exit polling are outside the scope of the act. Argosy casino parkway riverside mo morongo casino slots reviews direct involvement by private citizens in counting and polling can be functional and made to operate outside the direct involvement of government.

    In the private sector as it exists today, exit polling is intentionally distorted by the NEP corporate consortium and Edison, to match official electronic machine results. NEP(National Election Pool) claims their exit polls are not designed and cannot be used to detect fraud. This is absurd on the face of it. It is the same as saying you can’t use sampling data on a production line to detect manufacturing defects because statistical quality control is worthless.

    Mechanical accuracy of optical-scan voting has been calculated to be 99.99%. For that reason, it’s not an problem for me and I’m not a Luddite opposed to using technology to help in vote-counting. OTOH there is nothing like statistical quality control (SQC) to monitor ‘unusual events’ and to independently measure the integrity in voting in elections. That’s where exit polling is always needed.
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  14. Marcus Macauley

    July 20, 2016 at 12:40 pm

    The link for “To Believe Bush Won in 2004, You Must Believe…” is currently broken:
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    In case it has not been fixed by the time you read this, here is a cached version of that page:

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    • Richard Charnin

      July 21, 2016 at 1:22 am

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