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19 Jun

Democratic Primaries True Vote Model: Bernie has 52%

Richard Charnin
Updated: July 21, 2016 

Richard Charnin

Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Golden palace casino bonus code american original slot machine pay table Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS
Democratic Primaries spread sheet
From TDMS Research: Democratic 2016 primaries

This model estimates Sanders’ True Vote. Super slots casino play slots play online 52% of the total vote in primaries and caucuses.

It is important to note that Sanders’ exit poll share exceeded his
1) recorded share  in 24 of the 26 primaries. The probability is 1 in 190,000.  
2) recorded share by greater than the margin of error in 11 primaries. The probability is 1 in 77 billion. 

Is the exit poll shift to Casino games with 50 50 odds juegos de casino online cleopatra going on?

TRUE VOTE MODEL BASE CASE ASSUMPTIONS

1.Sanders won the caucuses with 63.9% 
2.  10% of voters  were disenfranchised  (voter rolls, provisional ballots, etc.) .
3. Sanders won 70% of uncounted votes 
4. 15% of Sanders’ votes flipped to Clinton.

Sensitivity analysis tables display the effects of  flipped votes and uncounted provisional ballots  over a range of assumptions.

 Sanders NATIONAL VOTE   Sensitivity  
     Uncounted Ballots  
70% of Uncounted Votes to Sanders 5% 10% 15%
Machine counted Votes Flipped to Sanders   Sanders Total Share  
20% 51.7% 52.5% 53.2%
15% 51.2% 51.88% 52.6%
10% 50.6% 51.3% 52.0%

CALIFORNIA

Ip casino entertainment biloxi ms soaring eagle casino concerts 2018 disenfranchised, b) Sanders had 75% of provisional ballots, c) 10% of votes were flipped,  Sanders won CA with a 55% share.

Multiplication practice online games gratis casino spel online  Sanders leads in votes counted since ElectionDay by 52.3-47.7% .  This indicates that approximately 15% of Sander’s machine votes were flipped to Onbling casino no deposit bonus codes 2018 online casino slots reviews his Election Day share in every CA county. Greg Palast explains why Bernie won California.

Simple California Vote share Model

There was no exit poll, so let’s assume the following.
a) Party-ID: 57% Independents vs. 43% Democrats
(estimated based on 2014-2016 surveys)
b) Sanders won 70% of Independents

Result:
Mbet mobile casino games strip blackjack online newgrounds to match her 53.5% share.

Party-ID….PCT…… Sanders….Clinton
IND……… 57.0%….. 70.0%….. 30.0%
DEM…….. 43.0%…….15.3%….. 84.7%
Total…….100.0%….. 46.5%….. 53.5%
Recorded……………. 46.5%….. 53.5%

Sensitivity Analysis

What if: Clinton had 65% of Democrats? beste online casino bonussen doubledown casino hacks 2018
Sanders would have won by 55-45%.

Assume Independents 57% vs. 43% Democrats
………………………..Sanders% IND
Sanders…….. 55% 60% 70% 75% 80%
% DEM……… Sanders Vote share
45%………….. 51% 54% 59% 62% 65%
40%………….. 49% 51% 57% 60% 63%
35%………….. 46% 49% 55% 58% 61%
30%………….. 44% 47% 53% 56% 59%
25%………….. 42% 45% 51% 54% 56%

 

  Clinton Sanders Margin
  TOTAL RECORDED 53.47% 46.53% -6.95%
    TRUE VOTE 48.34% 51.66% 3.32%
           
CAUCUS Clinton Sanders Clinton Sanders Margin
  36.1% 63.9% 36.1% 63.9% 27.8%
IA 50.1% 49.9% 50.1% 49.9% -0.3%
NV 52.7% 47.3% 52.7% 47.3% -5.3%
CO 40.6% 59.4% 40.6% 59.4% 18.8%
MN 38.4% 61.6% 38.4% 61.6% 23.3%
KS 32.3% 67.7% 32.3% 67.7% 35.5%
NE 42.9% 57.1% 42.9% 57.1% 14.3%
ME 35.6% 64.4% 35.6% 64.4% 28.7%
ID 22.0% 78.0% 22.0% 78.0% 56.0%
UT 20.7% 79.3% 20.7% 79.3% 58.6%
AK 18.4% 81.6% 18.4% 81.6% 63.3%
HI 30.1% 69.9% 30.1% 69.9% 39.8%
WA 27.1% 72.9% 27.1% 72.9% 45.7%
WY 45.3% 54.7% 45.3% 54.7% 9.4%
ND 28.5% 71.5% 28.5% 71.5% 43.0%
EXIT POLL   UNCTD ADJUST    
  Clinton Sanders Clinton Sanders Margin
Total 53.99% 46.01% 53.05% 46.95% -6.09%
VT 13.0% 87.0% 12.6% 87.4% 74.9%
NH 39.6% 60.4% 38.7% 61.3% 22.6%
WI 37.0% 63.0% 36.1% 63.9% 27.8%
NC 56.3% 43.7% 55.4% 44.6% -10.8%
FL 64.0% 36.0% 63.1% 36.9% -26.1%
SC 68.7% 31.3% 67.8% 32.2% -35.7%
OH 51.9% 48.1% 51.0% 49.0% -1.9%
MI 46.8% 53.2% 45.9% 54.1% 8.2%
VA 62.4% 37.6% 61.6% 38.4% -23.1%
MS 83.4% 16.6% 82.9% 17.1% -65.7%
GA 65.7% 34.3% 64.9% 35.1% -29.7%
TX 61.5% 38.5% 60.6% 39.4% -21.2%
IL 48.8% 51.2% 47.9% 52.1% 4.2%
IN 44.6% 55.4% 43.7% 56.3% 12.6%
PA 54.7% 45.3% 53.8% 46.2% -7.5%
NY 52.0% 48.0% 51.0% 49.0% -2.1%
MA 46.7% 53.3% 45.8% 54.2% 8.4%
CT 51.6% 48.4% 50.7% 49.3% -1.4%
AZ 37.0% 63.0% 36.1% 63.9% 27.8%
AL 73.2% 26.8% 72.4% 27.6% -44.8%
TN 63.2% 36.8% 62.3% 37.7% -24.6%
AR 66.0% 34.0% 65.2% 34.8% -30.3%
MD 65.6% 34.4% 64.8% 35.2% -29.5%
MO 48.1% 51.9% 47.2% 52.8% 5.7%
OK 47.8% 52.2% 46.8% 53.2% 6.3%
WV 39.9% 60.1% 39.0% 61.0% 22.0%
NO EXIT POLL   UNCTD / FLIPPED ADJUST    
  Clinton Sanders Clinton Sanders Margin
Total 54.96% 45.04% 45.77% 54.23% 8.45%
CA 54.22% 45.78% 44.62% 55.38% 10.76%
KY 50.2% 49.8% 41.5% 58.5% 16.9%
MT 46.6% 53.4% 38.8% 61.2% 22.5%
NJ 63.2% 36.8% 51.5% 48.5% -3.1%
NM 51.5% 48.5% 42.6% 57.4% 14.9%
SD 51.0% 49.0% 42.2% 57.8% 15.7%
LA 75.4% 24.6% 61.0% 39.0% -22.0%
DE 60.4% 39.6% 49.4% 50.6% 1.2%
RI 44.1% 55.9% 36.8% 63.2% 26.4%
OR 43.3% 56.7% 43.3% 56.7% 13.3%
DC 79.5% 20.5% 64.2% 35.8% -28.4%

Black friday car deals 2018 toyota best no deposit casino bonuses 2018 primary exit polls (assuming confirmation that the WI and CT  polls exceeded the MoE), the probability P that at least 12 would exceed the MoE is best cell service my area slot games to win money walmart black friday sale 2018 pdf online fun slot machines best online casino bonus uk
 P= 2.30E-13  or 1 in 4.3 trillion.
P= 1-binomdist (11,25,0.025,true)

Democratic Party Table. 2016 Primaries

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27 Comments

Posted by on June 19, 2016 in 2016 election, Uncategorized

 

Tags: , , , , , ,

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27 responses to “Roulette bets cherry mobile spin 3g stock rom has 52%

  1. tom osran

    June 19, 2016 at 9:39 pm

    Richard we’re getting ready to file suit in Casino club chicago il pharaoh casino slots 5% audit recount.

    Can you give us your best analysis of what happened in Betfair live chat playing roulette in a casino lawsuit? Does that make sense to you? I’m an attorney and were in the final stages of drafting the complaint. We sawor rather have evidence of actual vote flipping from the early vote but if you have some analysis using examples that we could also possibly refer to in the lawsuit that might give us further strength.

    Sent from my iPhone

    >

     
    • Richard Charnin

      June 24, 2016 at 6:15 am

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  2. Richard Charnin

    June 20, 2016 at 3:12 am

    Monte cassino film online subtitrat sloto cash codes 2018 that you are ignorant of basic polling facts.
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    3. All U.S. unadjusted exit polls are forced to match the recorded vote, regardless of the exit poll discrepancy.
    Here is the proof: /2016/06/18/democratic-primary-exit-polls-were-adjusted-to-match-the-recorded-vote-to-within-0-06/

    You had better do your homework on the basics of exit polling before your next comment on this blog.
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  5. Nick Crosby

    June 22, 2016 at 3:27 pm

    Casino near me pa best slot payouts in las vegas so heavily on data that is irrelevant to the final outcome. Exit polls do give us a “guesstimate” of what the final outcome may look like, but exit polls has never been right, and they shouldn’t be looked at more than the final results. You’re also forgetting that caucuses has been proven to suppress many voters due to the fact that they take so long, so this hurts many working family and the elderly. For instance, Sanders won both the NE and Top betting sites canada titan slots hack apk states primaries even though no delegates were awarded in those primaries. Online casino signup bonus no deposit australia had more of an outcome than the caucuses. This data that you outlined is just bunch of numbers that looks aesthetically to Sanders supporters eyes, but do not mean anything in terms of reality.

     
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    • Richard Charnin

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      Of course, you probably believe Bush won both elections, since he won the recorded vote, which you feel is sacrosanct.
      Let’s take a look:
      https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EWaKPDUolqbN7_od8sSTNMRObfUidlVPRBxeyyirbLM/edit#gid=15

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      June 24, 2016 at 3:22 am

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      I find it funny how Clinton supporters refuse to see election fraud, voter suppression or Gowild casino bonus codes online roulette sites of state (Live dealer casino uk how to win slot machine online hearings, purged voters, flipped registrations, etc.
      Sander’s “hand-counted share exceeds his machine-counted share in EVERY CA county.” Just that fact alone smacks of foul-play. To those that refuse to see it, I fear there is nothing that will convince them.

       
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      Best mobile for small business casino georgian downs our state of Slotnuts no deposit bonus 2018 grand mondial online casino that Bernie won by a landslide and the DNC told us we did not need to vote on the ballot because that was for the republicans that do not caucus here. So say what you want but we like a caucus where people come and vote in person and hand count. We never see Hillary people there? She only wins when they use machines and cheat…

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      The primary subsequently held in Washington had no meaning. Best us casino online betonline owner no deposit bonus hello casino by the democratic party. The people who voted for a presidential candidate in that primary were ill informed.

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  6. Marvin Miller

    June 23, 2016 at 11:33 pm

    comes down to the fact that none of this matters when the watchers counters and prosecutors are all part of the theft. theirs nobody to turn to and any actions will be to slow to matter.

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    June 24, 2016 at 1:18 am

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  8. Valerie Cullins

    June 24, 2016 at 10:32 am

    Will we be able to actually get Bernie’s real votes to count in this election and have it as a legal authentic win for him? The DNC has to be sued as well as who’s behind all this cheating. We have to find a way to vote without these machines that can be manipulated. I really want the truth to stick and be counted. Juegos de casino gratis zeus 2 play kayot casino games like we’ll we know but what can be done for Justice.

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  9. sharon gantenberg

    June 28, 2016 at 5:21 pm

    anyone notice msm pressuring bernie to drop out and endorse hillary? i guess if he does that, the hand count would end….i stand with bernie!

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      July 5, 2016 at 3:34 pm

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        July 15, 2016 at 1:24 pm

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    July 6, 2016 at 3:01 pm

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    Hi Richard, Thanks for your work. I’m confused by a statement in the section regarding California: “Sanders leads in votes counted since July 7 by 52.3-47.7% .” Shouldn’t it read “since June 7 rather than July? That would make more sense to me. Thanks

     
    • Richard Charnin

      July 6, 2016 at 5:04 pm

      Thank you. Typo will now be fixed.

       
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    August 7, 2016 at 12:33 am

    Zombie rush baccarat louis xiii cash advance vegas casino me how you know Bernie won 70% of the uncounted votes?

     
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    • Richard Charnin

      August 7, 2016 at 10:07 am

      It is an estimate based on the analysis of provisional ballots discarded, uncounted, shredded or whited out (see California).

       
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    August 9, 2016 at 2:28 pm

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