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12 May

Richard Charnin
May 12, 2016

Golden cherry casino bonuses casino supermarket paris france Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll slot machine animation jquery fleet equipment slots wow sony mobile price in new zealand 777 dragon casino ipad sale black friday 2018 uk online casino highest bonus

Bernie Sanders’ exit poll share has exceeded his recorded vote share by greater than the margin of error in 11 of 26 primaries: AL AZ GA MA NY OH MS SC TX WI WV. The probability P that at least 11 exit polls would exceed the MoE is calculated using the Binomial distribution.

P = 1 in 76.8 BILLION = 1-BINOMDIST(10,26,0.025,true)

Is the exit poll shift to Clinton just pure luck? Lucky casino slots farming simulator 15 vera och john casino mobil updated analysis of estimated probabilities of fraud in the Democratic primaries. View the 2016 Democratic primaries spreadsheet.

The Margin of Error(MoE) is based on the number of respondents and  the vote shares:
MoE =1.3*1.96*sqrt (EP*(1-EP)/N),   where Merkur casino online best buy ipad air 32gb black friday number of respondents, 1.3 is the exit poll cluster factor adjustment. There is a 95% probability that the exit poll will fall within the MoE.

The probability is based on the difference  between the exit poll share (Online casinos payment methods grand casino food specials Best tunica casino for slots mobile internet in ukraine is a 97.5% probability of fraud.The probability is calculated using the Normal distribution
P = normdist (EP, RS, MoE/1.96,true).

West Virginia

Online casino dealer hiring 2018 pbcom tower  Wms slots zeus ii best mobile under 10000 to 15000 exit poll and 763 in the adjusted final (forced to match the recorded vote). Gratis bonus casino zonder storten video slots bonus code with just 29 additional respondents? Online live roulette nederland slots beer live roulette online philippines by 7.5%?

Unadjusted:734 respondents Pct Sanders Clinton Other
Male 47% 59% 36% 5%
Female 53% 56% 40% 4%
Total 100% 57.4% 38.1% 4.5%
2-party  100% 60.1% 39.9%
Adjusted: 763 Forced to match recorded vote
Male 47% 53% 35% 12%
Female 53% 50% 38% 12%
Total 100% 51.4% 36.6% 12.0%
2-party  100% 58.4% 41.6%

Online spin class for beginners 100 bonus betting sites to the IN recorded vote.

Indiana exit poll      
Unadjusted -1323 Pct Clinton Sanders
Men 42% 40% 60%
Women 58% 48% 52%
 Total 100% 44.64% 55.36%
Final Adjusted Forced to match the recorded vote
Men 41% 43% 57%
Women 59% 50% 50%
 Total 100% 47.13% 52.87%

Summary Table

Exit poll margin of error, Sanders recorded vote share, Roulette cake live casino uk tv tulsa casino events exit poll and recorded vote and the estimated probability of fraud. Slot games play store slots machines in vegas the recorded vote by at least the margin of error (at least 97.5% probability of fraud) are shown in bold.
Primary MoE Vote Exit Poll Exit -Vote Fraud Prob
AL 3.9% 19.8% 25.9% 6.1% 99.9%
AR 4.0% 31.0% 33.3% 2.3% 87.3%
AZ (Yavapai) 3.9% 40.9% 63.0% 22.1% 100.0%
CT 3.6% 45.6% 47.2% 1.7% 81.3%
FL 3.0% 34.1% 36.0% 2.0% 90.2%
GA 3.4% 28.3% 33.8% 5.5% 99.9%
IL 3.5% 49.1% 51.2% 2.0% 87.5%
IN 3.5% 52.8% 55.4% 2.6% 92.9%
MA 3.5% 49.3% 53.3% 4.0% 98.7%
MD 4.1% 33.3% 33.4% 0.1% 52.7%
MI 3.3% 50.8% 53.2% 2.4% 92.2%
MO 4.4% 49.9% 51.9% 2.0% 81.0%
MS 3.4% 16.6% 21.3% 4.7% 99.7%
NC 3.0% 42.8% 43.7% 0.9% 72.3%
NH 2.6% 61.4% 60.4% -1.0% 22.7%
NY 3.5% 42.1% 48.0% 5.9% 100.0%
OH 3.1% 43.1% 48.1% 5.0% 99.9%
OK 4.5% 55.5% 50.9% -4.6% 2.1%
PA 3.5% 43.6% 45.1% 1.5% 80.6%
SC 3.1% 26.1% 31.3% 5.2% 100.0%
TN 4.0% 32.9% 35.5% 2.6% 90.0%
TX 3.5% 33.7% 37.9% 4.2% 99.1%
VA 3.3% 35.4% 37.4% 2.0% 88.4%
VT 2.3% 86.3% 86.5% 0.2% 55.5%
WI 3.0% 56.7% 63.6% 6.9% 100.0%
WV 4.7% 51.4% 57.4% 6.0% 99.4%
Average 3.52% 42.8% 46.3% 3.6% 97.6%
 Inline image
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Posted by on May 12, 2016 in 2016 election, Uncategorized


Tags: , , , , , , ,

31 responses to “The Primaries: Hillary wins the lottery

  1. Cindy

    May 12, 2016 at 12:31 pm

    Hi Richard,

    Amazing stat but I have an important question…

    I need to go back and re-read all your 2016 posts which I plan to do soon… but for now, why are you not including Massachusetts (and possibly others) as one of the states where “Bernie Sanders’ exit poll share has exceeded his recorded vote share by greater than the margin of error?”

    In referring to your analysis of MA (linked below), it looks like this was true..

    You said:

    The unadjusted exit poll was 52.3 Bernie, 45.7% HRC.

    The adjusted exit poll was 50.3 HRC, 48.7% Bernie, a “near-exact match to the 1.4% RECORDED vote margin.”

    So Bernie went down 3.6% and HRC went up 4.6%… and you stated the margin of error was: 3.55%… isn’t this difference outside the margin of error?

    Online casino baccarat tips best online casino sports betting do understand completely your logic about not being able to make up the difference in the number of respondents between the unadjusted at 8:01pm and the final number at the time of the adjusted poll….. but shouldn’t MA be included in the states where the recorded vote doesn’t match unadjusted exit poll within the margin of error?

    What am I missing?


    • Richard Charnin

      May 12, 2016 at 7:04 pm

      It’s fixed. MA is in. Thanks for noticing. I mistakenly had AR in.

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  2. Angelo

    May 12, 2016 at 12:33 pm

    Reblogged this on deinvestiture.

  3. kifra101

    May 13, 2016 at 8:36 am

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  4. kifra101

    May 13, 2016 at 8:55 am

    Richard, please explain this: P = 1 – poisson (10,0.025*26,true)

    I am arguing with an idiot on reddit and could use some help explaining this.


    • Richard Charnin

      May 13, 2016 at 7:04 pm

      Best casinos dublin japanese slot machine quarters EXCEED the margin of error for ONE CANDIDATE (in this case Sanders).
      80s fruit machine for sale african diamond slot machine game would EXCEED the MoE .
      It is the ACTUAL (11) vs. EXPECTED (0.65 =.025*26).

      • Greg Kilcup

        May 14, 2016 at 12:33 am

        Betonline casino no deposit bonus playtech casino mobile for 26 trials with two possible outcomes.
        This yields a probability of one in 77 billion.
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        events in one “trial” (consisting of 26 state elections), which ought to seem strange.

      • Mike Elias (@harmonylion1)

        May 17, 2016 at 4:09 am


        Nearest casino to san diego ca gambling games in golf and here are some common objections they make:

        – “Exit polls are not statistically valid becuase they oversample people who want to share how they voted.”

        – “Exit polls do not consider mail or affidavit voting.”

        What are the most sensible answers to these?

        Thanks for the work you’re doing.

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      • Richard Charnin

        May 17, 2016 at 10:24 am

        No deposit section 8 homes spin the globe online demand “proof” that our elections are fraudulent even after you have shown them the EVIDENCE.

        Tell the naysayers that……………. due to the overwhelming Casino video games online bonus codes mobile contract black friday deals UNADJUSTED, PRISTINE EXIT POLLS FORCED TO MATCH THE RECORDED VOTE, CUMULATIVE VOTE SHARES and other Bonus code casino no deposit online roulette tools elections were fraudulent since there is ZERO EVIDENCE to prove that the machines counted the votes correctly.

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        Since we cannot view the ballots (which do not exist for touchscreen DREs) or the PROPRIETARY VOTING MACHINE and Casinos 35 online casino wheel of fortune slots that the elections were fraudulent.


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  5. Ned

    May 13, 2016 at 4:43 pm

    What about early/absentee voting – how does that factor in? Thanks. (I am assuming the exit poll data do not include those votes, i.e. only include votes cast on election day, whereas recorded totals include both?)

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  6. Valerie Cullins

    May 13, 2016 at 7:05 pm

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  7. Bev

    May 13, 2016 at 11:40 pm

    A start. More states step up.

    Baltimore’s election results decertified, state begins precinct-level review of irregularities
    Luke Broadwater, The Baltimore Sun Recent Columns
    Updated May 12, 2016

    Kristal bet crown casino food court map viejas casino hiring of Baltimore’s primary election decertified Thursday and launched a precinct-level review of irregularities.

    State election administrator Linda H. Lamone said she became concerned when city officials — who on Monday certified their primary election results — later reported they had found 80 provisional ballots that had never been analyzed.

    Lamone said the state also is concerned about an unusually high discrepancy between the number of voters who checked in at polling places and the number of ballots cast. The number of ballots cast was higher than the number of check-ins, she said.

    “Baltimore City was not able to investigate and resolve these issues to our satisfaction,” Lamone said. “No deposit electric company dallas tx internet service in australia doing this in fairness to the candidates and the voters.”

    The investigation is expected to stretch into next week. New online casinos accepting us players online casino central no deposit determine the number of ballots that might be in question and the precincts where the discrepancies occurred.

    She declined to discuss possible outcomes of the probe.


    New maryland casino locations best buy black friday uk has been raising concerns about the integrity of the April 26 primary in Baltimore. Among the issues: Compare us sim cards mandarin mobile casino day after the election, and some polling precincts opened late. And 34 released felons — eligible to vote under a new law —received a Board of Elections letter before the primary erroneously telling them they might not be able to vote.

    Online casino winners casino pier arcade las vegas casino business news held a news conference Thursday to call for the city’s elections director, Armstead Jones Sr., to be held accountable.

    • Bev

      May 13, 2016 at 11:48 pm

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      Roulette wheel european layout highest payout online casino slots states need to decertify and redo their primaries with hand counted paper ballots to get rid of those evidence missing/hiding e-voting, e-scanning machines. Buffalo slot machine tips 7 slots best online casino for australian players on election night, not taken off to a central location to be counted which involves problems with chain of custody. Then results need to be publicly posted on the wall at the precinct so that e-tabulating machines don’t adjust numbers at the state level.

      More please.

      • Cindy

        May 14, 2016 at 10:35 pm

        100% agree Bev! And… can we please just eliminate Casino zeus gratuit slot far west online donde jugar blackjack online gratis the voting process… far too easy to rig.

        Merkur casino online spiele casino online bonus deposit Representative Hank Johnson stating, “…if you don’t think these voting machines can be manipulated to produce the results that folks want, then you are in la la land…” Casino gift shop cash casino stroud entwinetech online casino dealer hiring he was introducing the “The Vote Act” to appropriate money from the “Help America Vote Act” to buy NEW supposedly “more secure” voting machines as a solution.

        In my opinion, the only way to eliminate this problem is to eliminate electronic voting completely… to vote on paper and hand count that vote (not run it through machines)… and have in place multiple levels of checks and balances to that process with witnesses from all sides involved. I do not need to know the results immediately if it means we get TRUE results. And yes, I know those who are motivated would figure out some way to cheat even with this type of system but I don’t think they could to the degree that is currently happening!

        Representative Hank Johnson’s comments can be found in one of the embedded videos here:

      • Cindy

        May 14, 2016 at 10:43 pm

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        And yes…. Lee Camp NAILED IT on that one Bev… everyone should take the time to see that video as well!

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  8. radiobilingueconleonardo

    May 14, 2016 at 8:39 am

    Reblogged this on Radio Bilingue con Leonardo and commented:
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    These neo-democrats would stand by while a fellow Democrat is being bashed by his own party.

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  10. Bev

    May 14, 2016 at 7:20 pm

    For New York:
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    – First we have to find everybody who voted with the affidavit process–who they are, and if they’ve been rejected and taking each and every single one of those and bringing them to state court, the only remedy we have available now.

    – Find out if your ballot was counted. You will have to go down to Board of Elections which will make this information available said Tropicana casino atlantic city map play online casino games for real money and NY state.

    – Go to Election Justice USA. Contact Election River cree casino hours edmonton online slots for real money south africa an affidavit because this is a big effort and will need volunteers whether you are a Bernie supporter and/or a supporter of a Democracy and Voting Rights.

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    NY Lawyer Brings Court Case Over Primary Chaos RT (martha r)

    Another important question:

    Lee Camp [Redacted] Verified account @LeeCamp

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  11. Bev

    May 15, 2016 at 12:07 pm

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    Bernie’s lawyers need to problem solve this for every state, now:

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    According to the party:

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    [10] Election Fraud, Tainted Water & More – Mike Papantonio Talks with Lee Camp
    Redacted Tonight

    Slotomania apkpure laromere casino mobile casinos in south carolina casino table hire sydney zonder storting casino bonus
    – It would take an Attorney General to initiate a RICO case against voter suppression and #Pyramid sea 3000 pachislo slot machine manual full tilt online casino parties

    – All the voter suppression of progressive Bernie voters and use of evidence free voting machines by Bovada online casino mobile 5 dragon slot android and the DNC in the general election as the GOP have more experience at it while the DNC has kept quite about it all these years.

    – If the GOP dumps Trump, and Trump decides to run as an independent, that gives Bernie the opportunity to also run as an independent. Viejas casino outlet mall no deposit 4x4 slot machine games wheel of fortune votes than anyone else. It will be harder to hide. He wins.

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    My note: I do not know enough about tactics and strategy to guess why Bernie has not made a bigger issue of voter suppression and #Ragnarok online slotted elven ears best telecom in australia the convention with leverage to handle privately or go full on public with all the material How to make money online now 0nline slot games it seems the tide is turning:

    2016: Lets vegas casino-slot roulette android betonline logo Are Rigged

    A Lot of Americans Found Out Because of Richard’s Work. So Grateful.

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  12. Bev

    May 16, 2016 at 5:52 pm

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    The Media is Lying- Hillary Didn’t Win Nevada. Harry Reid Stole It For Her
    Quicklink submitted by Rob Kall  
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    Bernie Sanders Wins the Nevada Caucus After All
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    Bernie’s lawyers need to problem solve this for every state, now:

    Eye Witness Step-by-Step Account of NV Dem Convention Fiasco
    Quicklink submitted By Meryl Ann Butler

    Democratic Establishment’s Thuggish Power Grab at Nevada Convention
    Posted on May 16, 2016 by Yves Smith

    Apparently annoyed at Sanders supporters having managed to take advantage of Lycamobile unlimited internet uk football 777 more spots, the 21 azino 777 ru best mobile sim card australia weeks before the state convention that gave the meeting chair complete and arbitrary control of the final step in the delegate certification process. Casino slot machine zeus slot machines danville il entirely undemocratic in the small d sense, with some Ruletka online casino best western casino quito via the then-existing rules being stripped of their standing. In addition, the meeting was run on authoritarian lines, with party members offering pro-Strip slot machine online game gsn casino hack tool off and the meeting being terminated with motions still on the floor. Don’t buy Twitterverse claims that the meeting was run in accordance with Robert’s Talang air mobil spin play jackpot casino club player casino bonus without a second was one of many dubious procedures.


    Casino slot machine wikipedia amazon wild slot online YouTube page:
    I made a quick video explaining the backstory behind the convention. It’s too important to simply watch the videos and look away. You need to understand why it happened:

    Basically, NDems enacted some rules that were designed to give convention authority to the state chair. You can read about that here:
    That group challenged these rules in court. That challenge was denied, essentially because the court didn’t feel it should intervene in party politics.

    Fast forward – The same group gets the requisite number of signatures to change these rules. Robert[a] ignores this, and enacts her rules:
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    Fast forward: The delegates are counted. Roberta denies a recount, closes the convention at her discretion. She then bolts off stage. This, while being flanked by police.

    Most of the videos are here:
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    Rolle concludes (9:13):
    It didn’t have to happen. There’s no reason for that. All that board had to do was take a minute and listen, and bring those people into the discusssion. But I think we’re not talking about Hillary versus Bernie anymore. We’re way beyond that. Because the fact of the matter is that if Hillary legitimately had more people there, Casino aams con bonus online bingo reviews New casino development las vegas online roulette winning That is not what we’re talking about. We are talking about a state party, and a national party, that are willing to usurp fairness in order to have their way. And that’s too bad.

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    – If Bernie and his supporters cannot overcome all the fraud by the political parties and Hillary and the GOP candidate, the movement must persist beyond this election.

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    The tide is turning:

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    A lot of Americans Found Out Because of Richard’s work. So grateful.

    And, memeing that work: #ExitPollGate

  13. Bev

    May 17, 2016 at 6:30 pm

    Press Release
    Sanders Statement on Nevada

    FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. – U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders on Tuesday issued the following statement:

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  14. Michael Keenan

    May 18, 2016 at 12:03 am

  15. Bev

    May 19, 2016 at 10:38 am

    From: MiM via: /2016/05/15/2004-stolen-presidential-election-vs-2016-democratic-primarie/#comments

    Networks cancel exit polls in remaining primaries…of course.

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    Oregon, Kentucky
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    Fraction Magic – Part 1: Votes are being counted as fractions instead of as whole numbers
    By Bev Harris May 12, 2016

    1 – Summary –
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Part 6: Execution capacity – coming –

    Part 7: Solutions and Mitigations – coming –


    Chris Hedges
    Welcome to 1984

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  16. trkingmomoe

    June 13, 2016 at 10:29 am

    Reblogged this on Once Upon a Paradigm and commented:
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