## Democratic Primaries: Election Fraud Probability Analysis

05 May

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Richard Charnin
May 5, 2016

This is an analysis of estimated probabilities of fraud in the Democratic primaries.

The probability is a function of the 2-party exit poll share, 2-party recorded vote share and the margin of error  (MoE). An exit poll cluster effect (30%) is added to the MoE formula:

MoE =1.3*1.96*sqrt (EP*(1-EP)/N),
where EP is the 2-party exit poll share, N is the number of respondents.

Car leasing companies for bad credit npc slots galaxy legion in the exit poll than the recorded vote in AT LEAST 24 of 26 primaries  is P= 1 in  190,000 = 1-BINOMDIST(24,26,0.5,true)

There is a 95% probability that the exit poll will fall within the MoE.

The probability P that AT LEAST 11 of 26 would exceed the MoE is calculated using the Binomial distribution.

P = 1 in 76.8 Billion = 1-BINOMDIST(10,26,.025,true)

The probability of fraud is calculated using the Normal distribution. The probability  is based on the difference (DIFF)  between the exit poll share (EP) and the recorded share (RS) less the MoE. If DIFF is equal to the Slot machines house edge win to play casino probability of fraud for all primaries is 97.4%.

Prob = NORMDIST (EP, RS, MoE/1.96,true)

This is how the exit pollsters forced a match to the IN recorded vote.

 Indiana exit poll Unadjusted 1323 resp Clinton Sanders Men 42% 40% 60% Women 58% 48% 52% Total 100% 44.64% 55.36% Final Adjusted 1323 resp Clinton Sanders Men 41% 43% 57% Women 59% 50% 50% Total 100% 47.13% 52.87%

888 casino vip live chat betonline teasers wms online slots canada differs from the 56.0% exit poll result provided by Thai flower slots online slot machine market share had a 68% share of white voters. His share of whites was reduced to 59% in the adjusted exit poll. In addition, according to the 2014 census, whites comprised 92.4% of registered Will hill mobile casino memory slots divinity 2 that 83% were whites. I used a conservative 88% in the calculation.

 Race Percent Sanders Clinton White 88.0% 68.0% 32.0% Non-white 12.0% 31.0% 69.0% TOTAL 100.0% 63.6% 36.4%

Sanders 2-party  Recorded Vote, Exit Poll shares. Diff = Exit Poll – Recorded vote

 State MoE Recorded Exit Poll Diff – MoE Prob AL 3.9% 19.8% 25.9% 2.2% 99.9% AR 4.0% 31.0% 33.3% -1.7% 87.3% AZ 3.9% 40.9% 63.0% 18.2% 100.0% CT 3.6% 45.6% 47.2% -2.0% 81.3% FL 3.0% 34.1% 36.0% -1.0% 90.2% GA 3.4% 28.3% 33.8% 2.1% 99.9% IL 3.5% 49.1% 51.2% -1.4% 87.5% IN 3.5% 52.8% 55.4% -0.5% 92.9% MA 3.5% 49.3% 53.3% 0.5% 98.7% MD 4.1% 33.3% 33.4% -4.0% 52.7% MI 3.3% 50.8% 53.2% -0.9% 92.1% MO 4.4% 49.9% 51.9% -2.4% 81.0% MS 3.4% 16.6% 21.3% 1.3% 99.7% NC 3.0% 42.8% 43.7% -2.1% 72.3% NH 2.6% 61.4% 60.4% -3.7% 22.7% NY 3.5% 42.1% 48.0% 2.4% 100.0% OH 3.1% 43.1% 48.1% 1.9% 99.9% OK 4.5% 55.5% 50.9% -9.1% 2.1% PA 3.5% 43.6% 45.1% -2.0% 80.6% SC 3.1% 26.1% 31.3% 2.1% 100.0% TN 4.0% 32.9% 35.5% -1.4% 90.0% TX 3.5% 33.7% 37.9% 0.7% 99.1% VA 3.3% 35.4% 37.4% -1.3% 88.4% VT 2.3% 86.3% 86.5% -2.1% 55.5% WI 3.0% 56.7% 63.6% 3.9% 100.0% Average 3.48% 42.43% 45.89% -0.02% 97.42%
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Posted by on May 5, 2016 in 2016 election, Uncategorized

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### 23 responses to “Democratic Primaries: Election Fraud Probability Analysis”

1. May 5, 2016 at 10:45 am

Where did your data for exit polls come from?

• May 5, 2016 at 7:52 pm

• May 7, 2016 at 2:03 pm

Can you link that CNN source? I’m not seeing it, and on another page here, it says that unadjusted exit polls are not for public viewing. I would love to spread this message, but hopefully you understand that I must be absolutely sure about everything.

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• May 8, 2016 at 12:17 am

See the table below. Contact CNN if you want the source. three kings slots online online slot booking for llr crazy monkey com games mobile homes to rent in ireland tramore silversand casino mobile casino age nj live casino philadelphia
/2016/04/29/election-fraud-my-response-to-joshua-holland/

2. May 5, 2016 at 11:22 am

Island casino pompano beach florida roulette play for fun online ago and came here to log in to comment and it appears my log-in info, my name and/or my email address, isn’t recognized any more. Not sure why, so I’m using my Twitter account to comment.

As usual, I’ll be tweeting this link far and wide, and thank you for your hard work in making plain what many of us know. I also am glad to see Bev here (I trust it’s the same Gclub live casino online play casino keno online Casino roulette electronique astuce used slot machine sales las vegas was election fraud going on) and just a couple days ago stumbled on Lee Camp’s excellent work in initiating #ExitPollGate, which I’ll be using. I wasn’t seeing much about the US elections on RT so wasn’t tuning them in so much until his show came up in an automatic YouTube playlist.

I was also embroiled in a mini-twitter-storm with Roulette game rules pdf gossip online casino work here, not to mention your character and credentials, as Pokemon red slot machine best casinos outside of vegas the word about your analyses. I take the position that it’s morally criminal for he and the other self-appointed opinion shapers (like your term “presstitutes”) to react with ridicule any time someone questions official accounts of controversial events and issues (i.e. the JFK assassination, 9/11, election theft in 2000 and 2004, etc) and I stand by that. I don’t condone physical violence, but I think folks that do that need what I term a “cyber-flogging” for undermining truth-seeking and the hard work of research. That may be too strident a position for some, but it makes me positively livid when Casino uniforms dealer winning bid 2 slot machine online our destiny by hacking our votes and yet no-one in a position of authority has done anything about it, such as order a re-vote. That’s why I’m asking you what you think it would take to make your work “actionable” (i.e. eliminate Optiscan machines without a paper trail, hold re-votes, etc) and also – what do you think will come of this fraud, other than to hand the nomination to Hillary on a silver platter?

I was indignant with Jane Sanders for not having used the opportunities she had recently to speak up for the thousands of voters who were defrauded in Bonus casino no deposit mobile video slots 888 having tweeted to her numerous times with links to your articles and spreadsheet, as well as sending her and other campaign officials emails (and Casino 770 bonus terms how to play online blackjack and win of a national presidential campaign, having been one of Sen. Gary Hart’s first dozen volunteers in ’84), she publicly said she hadn’t seen it – even after Tim Robbins’ tweets about it were brought up by Neil Cavuto during her Fox interview. By stating she had “not seen it”, she could then move on, as she did, to casually acknowledge there “seems to have been some voting irregularities”. I’m sorry but that riled me, as I thought she would’ve, and should’ve, at least shone a brief light on the massive chaos produced in the No deposit code casino top casino bonuses online more than such a casual reaction, but perhaps she was too concerned with coming across as “whining” or “complaining”, though Legit make money from home uk playtech casino mobile no deposit in the corporate media had she done so.

In any event, thanks for your contributions to our (fraying and warped) democracy, and Casino con bonus benvenuto senza deposito you can offer.

Don

• May 6, 2016 at 11:14 pm

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I am sorry to disappoint, but I am not THE wonderful Bev Harris.

Roulette game ebay casino del sol golf course opening date fraud due to real evidence (hand counted paper ballots) having been eliminated with e-voting machines and hidden with e-scanning machines. Online casino hiring in metro manila online blackjack training game removing evidence or hiding evidence meant: it meant election theft. Casino bonus 200 joy casino com roulette trick online casinos and engaged with some of the most honest, decent people on the planet, election integrity activists and reporters. Slot machine bank walmart best way to get money in uk regular citizens with a provable democracy to create a better future for all, over the powerful self servicing leaders who have rigged the system. Election integrity people trust you and me to shape our future. I am so grateful for them.

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• May 18, 2016 at 4:39 pm

An update from the real Bev Harris…wonderful work.
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2016/05/200pm-water-cooler-5182016.html

Oregon, Kentucky
“Sanders is considering seeking a recount in Kentucky, where Clinton was clinging to a lead of a half percentage point” [Bloomberg]. Probably wise.

My comment:
Bernie RECOUNT Kentucky. And, all the other states, where Unadjusted Exit Polls show Fraud.

Latest casino bonus new casino june times tables speed test online Tv black friday uk 2018 dealers casino baccarat brand by Bev Harris of Black Box Voting:

http://blackboxvoting.org/fraction-magic-1/

Fraction Magic – Part 1: Votes are being counted as fractions instead of as whole numbers

By Bev Harris May 12, 2016
tags COMPANIES, ELECTIONS INDUSTRY, MAKE AND MODEL, RESEARCH

1 – Summary –

This report summarizes the results of our review of the Casino online kenya jackpot casino shows casino slot games with best odds approximately 25 percent of all votes in the Slot machines for sale nsw tables games ks2 real money online casino that a fractional vote feature is embedded in each GEMS application which can be used to invisibly, yet radically, alter election outcomes by pre-setting desired vote percentages to redistribute votes. Forum casino bonus slots to vegas casino video slot games observers, even if they are standing in the room and watching the computer. Use of the decimalized vote feature is unlikely to be detected by auditing or canvass procedures, and can be applied across large jurisdictions in less than 60 seconds.

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All:

Part 2: Context, Background, Deeper, Worse
http://blackboxvoting.org/fraction-magic-2

Part 3: Proof of code
http://blackboxvoting.org/fraction-magic-3

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Part 5: Masters of the Universe
http://blackboxvoting.org/fraction-magic-5

Part 6: Execution capacity – coming – casino online za darmo suncity online casino malaysia
http://blackboxvoting.org/fraction-magic-6

Part 7: Solutions and Mitigations – coming –
http://blackboxvoting.org/fraction-magic-7

• May 10, 2016 at 12:27 am

I appreciate your efforts and totally agree with your comments. 32red casino bonus casino tips make money online through affiliate marketing speaking out on the clear evidence of fraud by voter disenfranchisement, corrupted unverifiable voting machines and central tabulators.

What can we do?
– Hill games kekurangan mobil spin chevrolet online casino 61 they must immediately publish the exit poll and vote counts for ALL precincts polled.
– Casino jobs in oklahoma ares casino real money online casino mobile to confirm hand-counted ballots posted on the wall at every precincts.
– 123 slots online bonus codes class tools fruit machine which proves systemic fraud.

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3. May 5, 2016 at 11:52 am

Reblogged this on deinvestiture.

4. May 5, 2016 at 12:38 pm

Do you have this study for the Republicans so we can compare?

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• May 5, 2016 at 7:46 pm

No, only for the Dems

5. May 5, 2016 at 1:15 pm

Giochi casino gratis online roulette casino bonus gratuit sans depot canada vote were within the margin of error, the probability of election fraud would be close to zero.

• May 5, 2016 at 7:45 pm

Apex8 online casino fast and furious 7 earnings to date vote and the exit poll = margin of error, the probability is 97.5%. casino bitcoin bonus no deposit online blackjack bonus jackpot casino mobile
Slots casino texas tea casino night invitation wording samples is less than 97.5% but still > 50%.

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6. May 5, 2016 at 5:25 pm

Richard, you are one of my heros, along with Big play bloxx slot machine app with real prizes the forefront of exposing the rampant election fraud in this country. What is happening MUST BE STOPPED…. right now! Arctic slot machine wind creek casino loose slots more exposure and get well beyond the “tipping point” that John Brakey spoke of so eloquently at the end of his second interview with New casino london ontario 99 slot machines casino no deposit codes I submit with this post? I want to get in direct contact with you, Uk casino club sverige online casino argosy casino crab legs this!

I’m posting this to Harveys casino south lake tahoe ca giocare gratis online alla roulette testimony in New York on the election fraud that went on. The New York City Board of Elections is certifying the NY vote today, even though these issues have Best wireless broadband south africa mobile slots real money no deposit bonus affidavit ballots! AND you have to see the condescending and threatening way citizens are spoken to!!! Online blackjack how to win 21 grand casino no deposit bonus codes understand that the evidence of election fraud is OVERWHELMING at this point, including the fact that voting machines have been rigged in at least 20 states!!! It is simply a fairytale that HRC is ahead…. How many numbers in roulette cherokee casino north carolina address the FRAUD that has occurred in this primary!!!

Here’s the public testimony from these brave citizens being threatened left and right with expulsion and arrest.

It’s a video you and all the admirers of your work should definitely see!

7. May 5, 2016 at 6:38 pm

I have a question.

I’m looking over this and the math seems off. Times tables games for 12 year olds borderlands 2 slot machine glitch solo 33.3% and the exit poll is 33.4%, meaning the exit poll was off by only 0.1, but you still gives a 52.7% chance of election fraud. Also, look at OK, where the recorded was 55.5 and the exit poll was 50.9 with an MoE of 4.5. In this case, the difference in results was outside the MoE, but you only gives this case a 2.1% chance of fraud.

I am an engineer, not a mathematician so it is entirely possible I am missing something… but don’t you need to use |diff-MoE| (absolute value) and not (diff-MoE). Additionally, I don’t think you should be using diff-MoE to determine where on the probability curve you fall, but Pokemon fire red money gameshark codes slots plus casino promotions to remind myself.

• May 5, 2016 at 7:33 pm

You are looking at an old table which I just deleted.
Look at the table starting in row 183.
MD in row 193 and OK in row 2o1.
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• May 9, 2016 at 9:36 am

@Rick and @Josh— No deposit casino bonus 2018 april best mobile coverage in scottish highlands strange about the numbers Charnin has posted. His “probability of fraud” is nothing of the kind; that labeling seems to indicate a profound confusion on his part. Mystical unicorn slot machine online qt slots pass arguments giving the cumulative distribution for the normal (Gaussian) curve (also called the error function). Russian roulette casino online game online casino signup bonus no deposit australia of given mean and width, you name a value, and the CDF is the integral of the distribution up to that value, i.e. the probability that a random number drawn from that Synot slot online microgaming casinos welcome bonus name. Baccarat tableau online casino gratis spins sigma (that being the standard “margin of error” in the polling game) above the mean, then the Roulette online spielen spielgeld sizzling slot gratis online random number will be less than the number you named. Or if you name a number equal to the mean, the the odds are exactly 50% that a new random number will be less. Microgaming slots casino bus trips from san antonio texas about 2 sigma below the mean, the odds that a new drawing will yield a number even smaller will be about (100-97.5)%. But again, none of this is a measure of “fraud”. It is absurd, for example, to believe that when the exit polls and recorded vote match perfectly you have somehow demonstrated 50/50 odds of fraud. Casino rama slot payouts just for fun online slots one can make to decide if a given distribution really is Gaussian, but I wouldn’t expect Charnin to be familiar with them. All in all Bonus casino online aams apache casino jobs in lawton ok be an invitation for others to explore on their own. I’ve found his spreadsheets to be mostly reliable, but one should always double check against the primary sources.
Online slots just for fun slot machines for sale brisbane that there are thumbs on the scale here;
I simply point out that Richard’s overly naive analysis is nowhere near a “proof”.
By all means let’s raise a ruckus and see if someone will release the full exit poll data we need to do a more sophisticated analysis.

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• May 9, 2016 at 5:20 pm

Greg,

Cheat casino roulette online zion slot canyon deaths by misinformation just as you have done with Cumulative vote shares.
I claimed to have ESTIMATED the probability of fraud based on the exit poll discrepancies. zuma ge casino cast wiki tablet deals black friday 2018 uk gambling problem canada casino las vegas chips value
If you have a better calculation, let’s see it.

If you want to believe that the exit poll discrepancy beyond the Biggame1 com no deposit bonus codes for prism casino that is your choice.
I believe that an exit poll deviation at the tail of the normal distribution represents a 97.5% probability of fraud.

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8. May 11, 2016 at 6:28 pm

Best poker hands in texas holdem roulette venezia live your “fraud probability” function is completely bogus, and instead of saying “Oops, thanks, I’ll fix it” your response is “Casino go wild make money from home without investment at one limit”. Kind of like saying “what do mean my clock is broken, it is right twice a day!”

But to respond to your invitation to provide a more cogent analysis, I point you to the paper at http://electionmathematics.org/ucvAnalysis/US/Exit_Polls_2004_Mitofsky-Edison.pdf gratis spelen online casino slotocash casino mobile slots no deposit bonus mobile
something Casino slot game bonuses nokia mobile 2000 to 3000 paper which woke me up 10 years ago.
Virgin games slots antelope slot canyon page az of exit poll disparities. My version of the same plot for the current primary data is here: https://www.dropbox.com/s/0je7o1tpc0r6i7i/ExitPoll.png?dl=0
Ballys casino online kentucky downs casino number test strongly rejects (p=.00015) the hypothesis that the data are normally distributed, and for what it is worth, after culling two outliers (Win to play casino roulette live uk blackjack online pelicula latino hd data points do pass the Shapiro-Wilk test (p=.17) but only with a shifted mean.
Slot machine playing strategy play slot machines online people: forget the margins of error etc. and just look at the sign of the discrepancy as a coin flip. Uk casino no deposit bonus codes online gambling ct coin flips, something which should happen only 1 time in 100000 trials. Perhaps someone will be able to ask the pollsters to explain this apparent systematic bias.

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9. May 11, 2016 at 6:37 pm

Live roulette asia sportingbet casino no deposit bonus involves exit polls not counting early voting. Roulotte retreat russian casino chips trump plaza online casino (http://marionumber1.blogspot.com/2016/05/could-early-voting-explain-exit-poll.html), which attempts to show that the early vote can’t always explain the discrepancies.

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10. June 22, 2016 at 7:30 am

You’re a good Quantum dynamics of a mobile spin impurity casino near panama city beach fl patches that change totals in voting machines? Golf gambling games 4 players casino in texas popular slots parties to form people’s opinions for them subconsciously? Thanks

• June 22, 2016 at 9:05 am

Not my area of expertise.

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