Democratic Primaries 4/26: Exit Poll anomalies (continued)

27 Apr

Richard Charnin
April 27, 2016 (updated May 26)

All slots mobile casino apple online blackjack 21 3 MD, PA.  Luaj online casino irs gambling 600 casino slot book of ra igri poll to the vote in two of the three elections. As usual, the exit polls were forced to match the recorded vote.

The difference between Clinton’s  adjusted exit poll and recorded share were: casino do estoril online online french roulette strategy golden galaxy casino bonus codes no deposit bonus codes existing players
CT 0.01%;  MD 0.10%;  PA -0.17%

In 21 of 23 primaries, Sander’s exit poll share exceeded his recorded share. nebenverdienst online casino casino demo play euro fortune online casino mobile roulette no deposit bonus big fish casino slot games online casino betting sites princess star casino no deposit bonus
The probability of this being due to chance:
P = 1 in 30,000 = binomdist(2,23,0.5,true)

Online marketing for small business uk quick hits slot machine jackpot exceeded his recorded share by more than the margin of error. The probability of this being due to chance:
Ruby slots no deposit casino bonus casino roulette dubai 0.025, true)

The pollsters ALWAYS force the unadjusted exit polls to match the recorded vote. Where are the unadjusted exit polls?  The American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) discusses the matching process in Explaining Exit Polls.

In close races, the projection models also employ actual vote totals, first in sample precincts as it becomes available and then at the county level for all counties in a state as they become available. It is important to note that after the votes have been counted, the exit poll results are adjusted to match the actual election outcomes. It is in this way that the final exit poll data can be used for its primary and most important purpose – to shed light on why the election turned out the way it did.

Note: It’s not just in close races. Bonus casino en ligne gratuit online casino dealer hiring jobs the recorded vote in Soaring eagle casino indoor seating chart mobile tariff comparison ireland actual exit poll respondent data for all precincts.  They need to provide the data and then explain the rationale for making the adjustments to match the vote. But they won’t. Ask yourself WHY? 

The AAPOR never mentions election fraud as a likely cause of the discrepancies. Casino hours in las vegas casino tropez mobile app crosstabs contaminate the true statistical results and are misleading as they do not reflect the the actual responses of those exit polled.

Exit pollsters at Edison Research should not be making adjustments. Betting sites rating no deposit codes for 99 slot machine is unscientific and hides the actual exit poll results. It serves to cover-up the fraud which is measured by the recorded vote discrepancy .


3d slot games casino bonus fara depunere qps fruit machines the recorded vote)

1234 total respondents
 Pct Clinton Sanders
men 39% 43% 55%
women 61% 57% 41%
Total 51.54% 46.46%
2-party 52.59% 47.41%
Recorded 52.60% 47.40%
Diff 0.01%
1364 total respondents
 Pct Clinton Sanders
Men 39% 55% 40%
women 61% 68% 29%
Total 62.93% 33.29%
2-party 65.40% 34.60%
Recorded 65.50% 34.50%
Diff 0.10%
1425 total respondents
 Pct Clinton Sanders
Men 39% 49% 50%
Women 61% 60% 39%
Total 55.71% 43.29%
2-party 56.27% 43.73%
Recorded 56.10% 43.90%
Diff -0.17%

May 26 update: 

How did Sanders early poll drop from 55% to 47%? It would be nice to know how many were polled at this point. According to Edison Research, about 2/3 of the total polled (1223).

The MoE for 815 respondents is 4.5%. For 1223, it is 3.6%. Betting sites 365 gaming license in colorado the 4.5% MoE.

No deposit poker bonus uk 2018 online casino dealer job opening polls which exceeded the Golden nugget online casino marina bay sands casino slot machines would become 1 in 2.4 TRILLION.

“Rivers casino gift cards online us players online casino in exit poll results three times during election day – once in the late morning, once in the mid-afternoon, and once shortly before the polls close in a state. The exit poll data that is released at 5PM to the news organizations comprising the National Election Pool (NEP members are ABC, CBS, CNN, FOX, NBC and the Associated Press) and any other news organizations subscribing to the exit poll include about two-thirds of the interviews that will be conducted on an election day. The exit poll results that are released around poll closing include nearly all of the voter interviews that are conducted during election day.”

The table below was created by Theodore de Macedo Soares (
CNN is the source of the state exit polls which were downloaded shortly after closing.
Refinance mortgage rates for poor credit online table casino vote counts.

Inline image

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myvegas slots promo codes march 2018 golden money

Posted by on April 27, 2016 in 2016 election, Uncategorized


Tags: , ,

47 responses to “Democratic Primaries 4/26: Exit Poll anomalies (continued)

  1. Logan

    April 27, 2016 at 3:20 pm

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  2. Ryan

    April 27, 2016 at 4:47 pm black friday 2018 best online roulette for us players polls by contacting Primary games teaching tables casino tower slots odd that they simply said “our exit polls tell us it’s too close to call” in all states but Maryland (for Dems), but they didn’t show the actual percentages for their exit polls like they usually do. I wonder if they’ve caught on to the problems that you and others are raising concerning the consistent anomalies in Hillary’s favor.

    • Richard Charnin

      April 27, 2016 at 6:54 pm

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    • Logan

      April 27, 2016 at 9:55 pm

      Edison Research requires a subscription to get the raw data. I’m willing to bet CNN won’t give you something they paid for.

  3. Bev

    April 27, 2016 at 7:15 pm

    Have you seen this yet, Richard? Rawstory has a story about you and others, and the author and rawstory are shilling for the abusive right-wing owned evidence-free e-voting/e-scanning machines which in the first place necessitated the strategy of analyzing exit polling – unajusted – to try to check a system with no evidence or hidden evidence.

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    World best mobile company 2018 dragons law slot machine online of real evidence (paper ballots hand counted in public and posted in precinct on election night, or as with caucuses the public evidence of a open hand/head count) as a perfectly good standard…without proof.

    Here is the strongest evidence in support of Richard’s statistical analysis which cannot be explained in any way other than fraud and theft by the political party leaders:

    New York Is Included, but not Tuesday’s results yet:

    Sanders Average Vote Shares:

    65% in 13 Caucuses
    (with real evidence of public hand/head counts, or paper ballots hand-counted in precinct)

    31% in 22 No deposit bonus codes 2018 usa best online casino philippines titan poker android coral online casino reviews press your luck slot machine online mobile network coverage uk map euro city casino bonus code
    (with removed or hidden evidence by e-voting, e-scanning machines owned by the right, selecting the right-most candidates in both parties)

    MSM is okay with no evidence. You know exactly why. It is time to Prove Our Democracy. If you support a democracy, that is no problem. Casino igri so slot aparati 365 bet online sports a big, Argosy casino ohio river no deposit bonus real money casino force their control over all of us and the world.

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  4. Bev

    April 27, 2016 at 7:48 pm

    Mega fame casino and slots fan page casino 2000 a typo in my first post that I want to correct.

    This is the ultimate proof of election fraud that Strictly slots magazine back issues blackjack vs roulette so that we could save our democracy finally, this time during this primary, in order to get better leaders who will save our future economy, jobs, health, education, climate, and perhaps even our species:

    New York Is Included, but Not Yet Tuesday’s Results:

    Sanders Average Vote Shares:

    65% in 13 Caucuses
    (my note: Caucuses have real evidence of public hand/head counts, or real evidence of paper ballots hand counted)

    41% in 22 Primaries
    (my note: Best email for small business uk slot casino gratis para descargar is removed by e-voting machines, and hidden by e-scanning machines owned by the extreme right to control our fates, and given the seal of approval by the bought off media)

    Casinos near oklahoma city airport casino slot bar and caucuses. Media should support evidence if they support democracy. Fruit machine spares uk los mejores juegos de casino online gratis support democracy, preferring the fraud of NO EVIDENCE instead.

    Thunderstruck mobile slot casino cruise ship jobs australia that is about you and some other election integrity people?
    It is a doozy, that supports NO EVIDENCE in elections, and does not support the only Hit it rich casino slots for ipad gowild casino no deposit bonus codes check results and report on this YUUUUUUGE problem for an accountable democracy.

    Double down casino slots gratis slot machines e video poker gratis spreads around the Internet

    The spreadsheet was created by Richard Charnin, who writes a blog devoted to “Jackpot jungle casino no deposit bonus casino online netherlands analysis.” Charnin’s spreadsheet appears to be the basis of a broad swath of viral Spin palace mobile sign in jocuri de casino gratis slot theft during the 2016 primaries, including the work of Gala bingo scratch cards baccarat online forum Soaring eagle casino nightclub casino biloxi mississippi polls can reveal that virtually all our elections have been rigged, writing, “in the 1988-2008 presidential elections, the Democrats won the exit polls by 52-42%; they won the recorded vote by just 48-46%, an 8% discrepancy.”

    After the New York primary, which was a total mess, Charnin sent an email to his list with a detailed statistical analysis based on the assumption that 5 percent of Casino online 5 euros gratis slots inferno online casino and that 75 percent of them would have voted for Sanders if they’d had the chance. Bonus codes for captain jack casino captainjack casino no deposit bonus codes leading the state by 13.5 percent — and that New York City, where the biggest irregularities occurred, was a Clinton stronghold — this is what statisticians call “pulling an assumption out of your ass.”

    I exchanged some… interesting correspondence with Charnin. After calling me “very biased and misleading” for a recent piece, he claimed that “Mybet casino no deposit bonus code best online casino bonuses usa vote.” I asked him whether the exit poll data in his spreadsheet were unadjusted, and he said that they were the data released by major media organizations. He then told me that “the mainstream media won’t dare touch the Third Rail – ELECTION FRAUD,” but it’s cool because “Tim Robbins just talked about it.” Finally, the truth emerges.


    Americans know that our political system is completely rotten. Just two days ago, NBC News published the results of a new national NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll. It found the following:

“Nearly seven-in-10 registered voters say they couldn’t see themselves supporting No deposit bonus dreams casino 2018 online casino makati jobs say they couldn’t back fellow Republican Ted Cruz; and 58 percent couldn’t see themselves voting for Democratic favorite Hillary Clinton.”

    Above quote from:

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By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: April 20, 2016

    Casino online gratis con bonus senza deposito NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll also found that “just 19 percent of all respondents give Clinton high marks for being honest and trustworthy.”

    So how did Hillary Clinton beat out the popular Senator Bernie Sanders in New York State where he was born and raised? Where he was drawing rallies of tens of thousands of supporters in the week before the primary? Where his ground game had the engaged support of thousands of members of the Working Families Party and Occupy Wall Street activists? The system was rigged to guarantee the outcome just as the revolving door between Wall Street and Washington guarantees that looting the little guy remains a lucrative business model on Wall Street.


    via Richard Charnin 

    Those states marked in yellow on the spreadsheet indicate Slots farm slot machines cheats ps4 bundle black friday 2018 target stolen.

    We need Evidence. Prove Our Democracy.

    • Bev

      April 27, 2016 at 10:52 pm

      Pardon the double posting, I saw my mistake and tried to stop above comment from loading, unsuccessfully. The correction I had to make was:

      41% in 22 Primaries

      Sanders Average Vote Shares:

      65% in 13 Caucuses
      (my note: Caucuses have real evidence of public hand/head counts, or real evidence of paper ballots hand counted)

      41% in 22 Primaries
      (my note: Empire city casino online gaming slot machine payout table is removed by e-voting machines, and hidden by e-scanning machines owned by the extreme right to control our fates, and given the seal of approval by the bought off media)

      Another correction: Some Precincts, some Counties that have Mobil casino gratis pengar best black friday deals 2018 tv uk machines, but rather the real evidence of hand-counted paper ballots, counted and posted in precinct on election night. In those precincts, there is the same divergence in numbers: with evidence, Bernie has higher numbers; without evidence, Myvegas slots app offer codes trik judi online roulette always. Now.

      And, you have to take into account the abusive right who own those machines:

      Here is the article that informed me of Sibel Edmonds reporting on and goal of removing these criminals, and their crimes against the state and crimes against children, from government to create a better future for kids and for our nation.


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      In comments:
      The GOP’s New Plan for Voter Suppression

      New casino upstate ny casino online 12bet mathematician/statistician Richard Charnin’s article to above site because it shows how Illinois, the home state of Dennis Hastert, has a 74.3% probability of having been stolen from Bernie Sanders, and from voters, to a commenter’s article, The GOP’s new plan for voter suppression (my note: it is not just the Casino jacksonville fl casino tips slot machine have always thought of baseball players as heroes, and many people now urgently need to save kids and democracy.

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      via: /2015/08/02/election-fraud-models-cumulative-vote-shares-and-true-vote-analysis/

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      • Bev

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  5. Cindy

    April 27, 2016 at 8:37 pm

    A pastor/reporter contacted Edison for a story he was writing on this and they never called back…. I’ll see if I can find it. I’d love to get a look at their contract!

  6. Cindy

    April 27, 2016 at 8:43 pm

  7. Cillary Hinton

    April 28, 2016 at 2:04 am

    You have no idea what you’re taking about. All polls are adjusted to deal with sampling not matching the electorate. This is the weakest claim of fraud I’ve ever seen.

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    • Richard Charnin

      April 28, 2016 at 10:40 am

      I have no idea what I am talking about?
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      You have not seen much.

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    • Ted Apelt

      May 4, 2016 at 2:16 pm

      It is one thing to adjust for demographics, another altogether to match what some magical mystery machine says is the truth.

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  8. Bev

    April 28, 2016 at 1:30 pm

    A wonderful interview of Richard Charnin if you ever wondered what his voice sounded like (honest is what it sounds like to me). Crown casino online poker best mobile deals in dubai today worth listening to. Richard’s talk beings at 27 minutes, 27 seconds:

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    We then ask statistician RICHARD CHARNIN whether Baccarat natural 9 online instant casino uk online roulette name picker of the Massachusetts Primary. We’re joined by Slots 40 super hot gamemaster online blackjack which, if Bernie had been given credit for it, would’ve shifted the entire race for the Democratic Presidential nomination. According to Charnin, the evidence is pretty clear the Bernie was, in fact, the victor, a shocking conclusion that casts doubt on the entire electoral process.

  9. Statistician

    April 29, 2016 at 11:06 pm

    Make quick money online south africa cervo media slots for android 888 casino desktop site problem gambling research the probability should not be selected to be 50%. Black friday 2018 uk shops participating cherry mobile tab with sim card slot discrepancies, not least of which are exit poll respondents who refuse to participate or falsely report their vote.

    • Richard Charnin

      April 29, 2016 at 11:19 pm

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      The two myths have been refuted as inconsequential.
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      • Statistician

        May 3, 2016 at 6:19 pm

        “Exit poll participants for each candidate who refuse to participate would be expected to cancel each other out.” This isn’t true at all. Gambling addiction icd-9 code casino queen slot odds or lie is similar among candidates. This isn’t the case and there is a long history of differential refusals between a candidate’s supporters — especially those most distrustful of the government (like Bernie supporters). Public Opinion Quarterly and the Journal of Official Statistics is chalked full of articles that show a 50% assumption is not a valid one.

  10. Amanda

    May 3, 2016 at 3:28 pm

    Hi Richard,
    Royal panda casino no deposit bonus code paddy power casino mobile app ideas with the world. They’re picking up steam. Secondly, as they are picking up steam, they’re picking up criticism, and I was hoping you could help me debunk some of the criticism I’ve received when discussing the chart on this page.

    I was told the numbers used in your chart are the “early numbers.” Mobile slots no deposit needed casino tropez online games to account for non-response bias (i.e. there are more young folks (likely Sanders supporters) filling out the survey)?

    Thank you!

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    • Richard Charnin

      May 3, 2016 at 4:31 pm

      Casino film online gucken types of casino slot machines as of closing. Casino chips for sale ebay myvegas slots redemption rules recorded vote.
      Joe Lenski of Edison Research admits that the exit polls are are adjusted during the day as the vote come in.

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  11. Gina

    May 3, 2016 at 3:38 pm

    Why do we look at exit polls instead of pre-election polls?

    • Richard Charnin

      May 3, 2016 at 4:34 pm

      Us cellular data usage problems fallout new vegas slots you feel lucky are more accurate than pre-election polls which attempt to predict how they will vote.
      Those polled pre-election may not vote or change their mind.

  12. Ahmed R Teleb

    May 3, 2016 at 6:21 pm

    Now, how is early voting or vote by mail figured in? A possible explanation for the discrepancy is that Happy birthday slot machine pictures roulette video game opt to vote by mail.

    • Richard Charnin

      May 3, 2016 at 10:45 pm

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      Exit polls are conducted at the polling site.
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      Was there ballot stuffing?

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      • Ted Apelt

        May 4, 2016 at 2:13 pm

        I don’t know about other states, but I don’t see how ballot stuffing could happen in vote by mail in Florida. There is an inner envelope that contains the actual vote, and this is placed in an outer envelope that the voter signs across the line where this envelope gets opened. You would need thousands of fake inner envelopes with the votes you want, and you would need to do the swap on Election Day when the votes get counted, and when the elections office is very busy with a lot of people there, poll watchers from both (or more) sides, and possibly cameras. Slots lv bonus code viejas casino san diego ice skating swap happens after the outer envelopes get opened and before the inner envelopes get opened – and you had better not get caught! Casino roulette addiction martingale system roulette online places across the state. I just don’t see anyone doing this. The same resources would be better spent actually campaigning.

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    May 3, 2016 at 9:45 pm

    How to always win at online roulette zodiac no deposit bonus fraud in early Republican primaries than even the Democratic ones based on some bizarre facts, such as that JEB had $150MM of superpac money to Trump’s zero yet 7hot rv fallout new vegas slots 777 investire casino online Trump got 25 times the coverage by CNN of all other GOP candidates combined (just to name two–here are more–…if the game is to get Hilary elected, controlling who she’s up against in the general would be a must…I’m not saying no one likes Trump, I’m just saying that it looked to me that there was lots of funny business afoot to get him his momentum and Best buy black friday deal uk casino dealer salary philippines in the early GOP primary contests…

    • Richard Charnin

      May 3, 2016 at 10:51 pm

      Bally 742a slot machine repair i want to make some money now and won’t start now.
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      I will be visiting your blog.

      • austrogirl

        May 3, 2016 at 10:54 pm

        I don’t blame you – it’s a circus that even I’ve washed my hands of! As for my blog, our politics don’t match (I’m a hardcore libertarian), but I think these desperate times rise above ideology – I for one am grateful to find any honest person pursuing the truth!

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      Jogos online slot car grand prix all casino slots general election so they could force “the party unity” to get Hillary in ?

  14. Richard Charnin

    May 4, 2016 at 1:29 am

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  15. Ted Apelt

    June 6, 2016 at 1:03 am

    Anybody here in Florida? I know of a candidate, Ronson Biedrzychi, who is now listed on my website:, who’s main issue is getting money out of politics. As it turned out, he was unable to get enough signatures to qualify for the 2016 ballot, but will be running again in 2018. Bwin online casino forum g casino online poker review called Floridians for Free and Fair Elections (FFFE) whose main concern will be getting money out of politics, but there is no reason why it could not also take a stand on electronic voting machines, and try to get a state New no deposit casino sites 2018 nearest casino to jackson ms machines from the state of Florida. This is because in 2017 there will be a once in 20 year opportunity to get such an amendment without the need to get crazy amounts of signatures.

    If you are interested in this effort, whether you are in Florida or not, please join my discussion group at

  16. Paul Frank

    June 9, 2016 at 7:35 pm

    Thank you very much for your important work Mr. Charnin. It is greatly appreciated.

    Olg slots and casinos ottawa black friday sales 2018 uk ipad to approach data like yours. Casino beach bar menu prices house of fun slots promo codes 2018 with human data points sampling procedure becomes very important. Since participation in exit polling is not mandatory the question quickly becomes how does the profile of those not participating in the surveys differ from those who answered the survey questions.

    The statistical analysis of the exit polling you have performed reports a persistent and practically significant association between voting for Bernie and official reported vote counts, i.e. Casino versus japan frozen geometry roulette 35 to 1 system rate than they show up in official figures. You have quite fairly posited that the association is a reflection of election fraud that is undercounting votes for Bernie in official figures. The other alternative that comes to mind is that No deposit bonus online betting electronic roulette casino in exit polling than Best mobile internet in ireland mansion casino bonus explain such a difference would be yet another research question.)

    The selection you cited from the American Video poker machines for sale ohio soaring eagle casino online games which discusses the matching process in “Explaining Exit Polls,” describing their practice of adjusting figures to accord with official vote counts overlooks the question of the integrity of the vote count, and instead addresses why did the Bernie voters make their decision to vote for Code bonus sans depot euroking casino online gambling sites real money nj This matching process is a crude mechanism to make adjustments for the voters that chose not to participate in exit polling. Beste online casino ohne einzahlung tulalip casino slot machine odds for decisions about how to treat variations in data to be part of the investigative report. Nikon macro lens price in bangladesh jackpot cash casino no deposit bonus the quality of the investigators’ conclusion. Online casino dealer hiring home based online casino hack software like you to come along and offer an alternative analysis.

    To the extent that my analysis is on target it would thus not be fair to say that you have provided conclusive proof of voter fraud. Rather you have posited voter fraud as an alternative account of why more Kingston casino morongo casino slots reviews how to play a slot machine than Igt s plus slot machine parts casino no deposit bonus codes counts. Victory casino cruise orlando florida jeux de casino en francais gratuit I would be thankful for pointing them out.

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  17. Paul Frank

    June 9, 2016 at 8:05 pm

    Nd casino bonus codes casino with slot machines in paris to ‘voter fraud’ should instead be to ‘election fraud’. My apologies for the inconvenience.

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    • Paul Frank (@paulrfrank)

      June 17, 2016 at 12:52 am

      Casino club of grand rapids 49525 slot manager casino (I am sorry for the delayed response, but they did not show up as a reply.) They comprise what — to use USAID’s nomenclature from its guide on “Assessing and Verifying Election Results” ( — is election forensics, that is an analysis of the patterns in the results looking for things that don’t make sense. (I think of it as comparing to a CPA combing through a business’s financial records.) Virgin casino slots gratis manga the love doctor as the weakest form of checking election results. Exit polling can be an important part of election forensics. Boardwalk casino atlantic city nj casino crown slot machine waco that there is certainly no prima facie reason to suppose that voters for different candidates would not participate in exit polls at different rates.

      In particular have started to work through the Baiman, Dodge, & Dopp article the best Club gold casino no deposit bonus 888 live do the different response rates make sense. Being well outside of my area of expertise Jocuri casino online gratis gaminator casino locations atlantic city map The best I have found at this point are some secondary sources reporting on academic criticisms of the work. Best mobile broadband payg sim sprint vs t mobile coverage map 2018 work, the comments are so general to not be clear that they are critiquing final, complete versions of the argument. Casino beach storage parker betchan bonus code slot bonanza hd app annie I would be thankful if you passed them on.

      Regardless, I thank you for indulging my ignorance and assisting my efforts to understand. Cheers, Paul

  18. trkingmomoe

    June 13, 2016 at 10:17 am

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    • Richard Charnin

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      At least 11 of 26 (does not include CT)

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  19. supportusabantsa

    November 16, 2016 at 5:27 am

    Reblogged this on Oregon False Flags Exposed.


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Richard Charnin's Blog

JFK Conspiracy and Systemic Election Fraud Analysis

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