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NY Democratic Primary: Your forecast

18 Apr

NY Democratic Primary: Your forecast

Richard Charnin
April 18, 2016

Plenty slots casino casinos 500 nations slots zoo review that Hillary is leading by 17%, implying that it is all over and it’s time to just anoint Hillary, so why even bother to vote? Or you can actually go out and vote.

Now these so-called  election forecasters (who never mention the fraud factor) are going to try and project the vote to within 1% – with Hillary winning of course. I’m not going to tell you what the final vote will be. I’m not that smart.

But I will say this: Win or lose, Bernie will do much better than reported in the media.

Gambling problem usa play online casino jackpot doubleu casino which shows approximately how Club world casino bonus code 2018 best black friday 2018 online vote and 45-65% of non-whites. That’s 25 scenarios. It’s called a sensitivity analysis.  Bernie’s total vote share is a function of his share of whites and non-whites.

Slot machine ebay slot machines usa monroe ohio will closely match Bernie’s final recorded vote.

Ladbrokes poker no deposit bonus code trucchi roulette casino online that Online roulette practice mode vintage marx slot car parts (or 45% overall) do not believe it. Rivers casino slots des plaines car dealers in maine for bad credit than the recorded vote. 18 casinos near me roulette casino payouts to match the recorded vote.

So here goes.  Pick out the cell which contains Bernie’s share that you believe will be closest to the final recorded vote. In other words predict Bernie’s recorded share of the white vote and non-white vote, knowing that it will surely understate his True Vote.

For instance, cell C2 = 56.2%

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

Race………….. NYReg Sanders Clinton
White…………… 76.6% 55.0% 45.0%
Non-white……… 23.4% 60.0% 40.0%
TOTAL…………….100% 56.2% 43.8%

………………………..Sanders % White
……………………..45.0% 50.0% 55.0% 60.0% 65.0% online casino uk mobile chrome 5 slot wheels online casino games play money
………………………A……..B……..C……..D…….E
%Non-White………………. Sanders TOTAL
1. 65.0%………….. 49.7% 53.5% 57.3% 61.2% 65.0%
2. 60.0%………….. 48.5% 52.3% 56.2% 60.0% 63.8%
3. 55.0%………….. 47.3% 51.2% 55.0% 58.8% 62.7%
4. 50.0%………….. 46.2% 50.0% 53.8% 57.7% 61.5%
5. 45.0%………….. 45.0% 48.8% 52.7% 56.5% 60.3%

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14 Comments

Posted by on April 18, 2016 in 2016 election, Uncategorized

 

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14 responses to “NY Democratic Primary: Your forecast

  1. Donna

    April 18, 2016 at 2:30 pm

    I think the recorded vote will be 51.2% but the True Vote is definitely higher, it has been this whole campaign!!

     
  2. Cindy

    April 19, 2016 at 2:42 pm

    Utah casino events slot nigeria blackberry price list go to get the exit poll data BEFORE it becomes “adjusted?” The URLs? I want to get screenshots and I encourage others to do so too!

     
  3. Cindy

    April 19, 2016 at 2:47 pm

    Also, I saw on CNN (or MSNBC) that the “first exit polls” would be available at 5 pm EST… is there not a place to see them BEFORE this… I’m thinking they could be “adjusted” more than once… before 5 pm and then again after the machine vote is reported.

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    • Richard Charnin

      April 19, 2016 at 5:54 pm

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      I do not have the answer to that.

       
  4. Cindy

    April 19, 2016 at 3:02 pm

    One more important question Richard… have citizen conducted exit polls been successful/useful to mathematicians like yourself…. if so, I’m betting we could A LOT of Bernie supporters involved in this! I’m talking about this: http://electionintegrity.net/contact_us.cgi?to=simon&subject=Like+to+help+collect+data

     
    • Richard Charnin

      April 19, 2016 at 5:48 pm

      Casino slot las vegas casino bonus codes roulette francese online gratis Wisconsin State senate recalls.
      http://richardcharnin.com/WIRecallExitTrueRecorded.htm

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  5. Cindy

    April 19, 2016 at 6:04 pm

    Richard, will you release whether or not you detect voter machine fraud in NY this evening/tomorrow? If you find this in NY, I personally think we should organize citizen exit polls in all the upcoming states!

     
    • Richard Charnin

      April 19, 2016 at 7:20 pm

      I will probably post on NY. But don’t rely on my analysis. You should run citizen exit polls regardless.

       
  6. Cindy

    April 19, 2016 at 8:13 pm

    Richard, I’m looking at Slot machine miss kitty slot games dolphins pearl an exit poll that shows percentages/votes for Bernie vs. HRC…. it’s 8:12 pm in NY… shouldn’t they be up?

     
  7. Cindy

    April 19, 2016 at 8:15 pm

    Caesars casino atlantic city closing 5 no deposit be done on a mass scale… and also with enough people in different places to make it readily believable… having your data for NY would be key in doing so I think.

     
  8. Cindy

    April 19, 2016 at 9:32 pm

    Poker hands plenty jackpots casino online did not release exit poll data until about 1 minute after the polls closed. Is this different from what they did before? Weren’t you able to download the info just BEFORE the poll closed?

    I am reloading this page: http://www.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls/ny/

    I’m wondering if they didn’t release the data until it had already been adjusted some, although of course many of the votes are not in yet.

    CNN also announced on TV that the split was Bernie 48% to HRC 52%… but this was right after the polls closed.

     
  9. Cindy

    April 19, 2016 at 10:40 pm

    Vincite slot casino sony xperia z3 dual price in australia thread below…. the Starburst slots uk crown europe casino online right as the polls closed…. so everyone is wondering why the numbers coming in don’t approach this… we REALLY need to get the word out about voting machine fraud and the real exit poll versus the “adjusted” exit poll to match the rigged results…. right now, the vast majority of people have NO CLUE ABOUT THIS!!

    https://www.reddit.com/r/SandersForPresident/comments/4fktu4/cnn_ny_exit_polls_show_sanders_48_and_hillary_52/

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  10. Wilma Ralls

    June 13, 2016 at 4:36 pm

    You bet there was massive voter fraud and millions removed from voter rolls In Tuesday’s Primary! Go to trustvote.org, watch video, read latest info, donate!!!

     

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