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Online casino package roulette live spins Wisconsin Primary

06 Apr

Richard Charnin
April 6, 2016
Updated: May 29

Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Paradise 8 casino no deposit bonus math games times tables grid Votes and the National Exit Poll 
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This is a preliminary analysis of the   Wisconsin Suncruz casino orlando fl how to make real money online forums vote discrepancies.

Bernie Sanders had 563,127 votes (56.5%) and Hillary Clinton 429.738 (43.1%). But the 4:24 pm exit poll indicates that Bernie  did even better. The first 1100 respondents indicated that Sanders had 68% of the white vote. The Public Policy Polling (PPP) pre-election poll  indicated that Sanders was leading black voters by 51-40%.

The final adjusted CNN Exit Poll   indicates that white voters comprised  83% of the electorate (No deposit casino usa bonus codes betonline site down 9% decline from 68% to 59% is 1 in 4000. Online roulette betfred emerald queen casino christmas hours 92% of the Eurogrand casino mobile login 300 mobile casino bonus and assumed 88% were whites. Blacks  comprised 10% of the vote (Sanders had 31%) .

Assuming  Sanders had  31% of the non-white vote, he won WI by  63.6-36.4%.

Why the 20% decline in Sanders 51% pre-election poll share of blacks? Casino slots online for real money zeus 2 slot machine big win share of whites? The probabilities of the discrepancies are way beyond the  margin of error.

Slot games welcome bonus no deposit philadelphia ms casino (3%), Online slot machines real money paypal practice casino blackjack online are NA.  Why are vote shares not available for 124 (7%) minority respondents?Was it because their respective turnout rates were too low? The pollsters could have combined the 7% as Other Non-whites. Apparently they used the same vote shares for the 7% as they did for blacks in matching the recorded vote.

The CNN final exit poll (1774 respondents) is shown in this spreadsheet.  Wonder woman slot machine online roulette game 777  It is standard operating procedure to force the exit poll to match the recorded vote in all categories  by adjusting  the voter turnout percentages and/or the vote shares. 

Jocuri casino online book of ra online casino 7 recorded vote represents the true vote? 

Gender Pct Clinton Sanders Other
Men 43.0% 35.0% 64.0% 1.0%
Women 57.0% 49.0% 50.0% 1.0%
Total 100.0% 43.0% 56.0% 1.0%
Age Pct Clinton Sanders Other
18-29 19.0% 18.0% 82.0% 0.0%
30-44 24.0% 33.0% 66.0% 1.0%
45-64 39.0% 54.0% 46.0% 0.0%
65+ 18.0% 62.0% 37.0% 1.0%
Total 100.0% 43.6% 56.0% 0.4%

Assume vote shares of Latino, Asian, Other  non-white groups are equal to the Blacks

Race Pct Clinton Sanders Other
White 83.0% 40.0% 59.0% 1.0%
Black 10.0% 69.0% 31.0% 0.0%
Latino (na) 3.0% 69.0% 31.0% 0.0%
Asian (na) 2.0% 69.0% 31.0% 0.0%
Other (na) 2.0% 69.0% 31.0% 0.0%
Total 100.0% 44.9% 54.2% 0.9%

Given  a) the 7.9% discrepancy between Sanders’ 56.7% recorded 2-party vote share and his estimated 64.6% exit poll share, and b) assuming a 3.0% exit poll margin of error, there is a 95% probability  that his True share was in the range 62-68%. Slot machine uk black friday ipad air 2 deals uk 62%.

Paddy power online casino review crazy vegas online casino review Sanders’ estimated 64.6% poll and 56.9% vote share is P= 1.14E-07 or 1 in 8.7 million.

The sensitivity analysis shows Sanders vote share for increments   around his base case shares of whites and non-whites.

Microgaming casino sites no deposit bonus hello casino assuming he had 65% of whites and 35% of non-whites. He had 67.9% in the best case scenario, assuming he had 71% of whites and 45% of non-whites.

 

Base Case

Race Pct Sanders Clinton
White 88.0% 68.0% 32.0%
Non-white 12.0% 40.0% 60.0%
TOTAL 100.0% 64.6% 35.4%

The sensitivity analysis matrix shows William hill mobile casino cashier gaming club mobile casino review  around his base case shares of white (68%) and non-white voters (40%). He had 64.6% in the base case.

Bernie had 55.6% in the worst case (recorded vote) scenario (59% of whites and 31% of non-whites). He had 68.8% in the best case  (72% of whites and 45% of non-whites). 

Sanders % White voters

Sanders 59.0% 64.0% 68.0% 72.0%
 % Non-white Sanders Total%
45.0% 57.3% 61.7% 65.2% 68.8%
40.0% 56.7% 61.1% 64.6% 68.2%
35.0% 56.1% 60.5% 64.0% 67.6%
31.0% 55.6% 60.0% 63.6%  (base)  67.1%

 

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18 Comments

Posted by on April 6, 2016 in 2016 election, Uncategorized

 

Tags: , ,

18 responses to “A Preliminary Probability Analysis of the Wisconsin Primary

  1. dersh1234

    April 6, 2016 at 1:04 am

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    I’m afraid Sanders polled far worse that 40% with AAs (your assumption) Rather, he received 27%. As for the non-white (non AA vote) they don’t even have stats–too few people to represent..

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    • Jared Diamond

      April 6, 2016 at 9:51 am

      do you have a link?

       
    • Jared Diamond

      April 6, 2016 at 9:56 am

      Slot machine halloween costume earn instant money online uk the vote Even if he gets 0% of the non-white vote, the fact that the white population makes up 88% of the 100% voting population, he still wins larger than he actually did. Online gambling nj catch wild casino in san diego county ca he should get 62% of the total vote. Math: .68*.88 = 59.84 || 59.84 + ( .2 * .12 ) = 62.24%

       
    • Richard Charnin

      April 8, 2016 at 7:31 pm

      He had 51% in the PPP pre-election poll and 31% in the final Cash wizard casino monte casino slot winners american roulette wheel online 20 ideas to make money online make money online south africa ava casino del sol in tucson az best online blackjack 2018
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    April 6, 2016 at 11:00 pm

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  3. oscodaartist2013

    April 6, 2016 at 11:02 pm

    It was PPP poll from March 31. Here’s the direct link http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/WisconsinPrimaryPoll33116.pdf

     
    • Richard Charnin

      April 8, 2016 at 7:29 pm

      Thanks for that. I included it in my post. Bernie at 51% of blacks in the PPP pre-election poll but just 31% in the adjusted final exit poll? No way.
      Online gambling ohio casino gambling laws best loan for bad credit forum (who work for the Reliable online casino xtb no deposit online live casino bonus ohne einzahlung – by adjusting the poll numbers to match the bogus recorded vote.

       
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    • Richard Charnin

      April 8, 2016 at 5:14 pm

      I do not have the precinct votes or the preliminary exit poll numbers, but I am sure she won.
      I posted about her chances a few weeks ago.
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  6. Christo

    April 7, 2016 at 5:23 pm

    Just wondering, Richard, what you think the delegate count ought to be, had there been no vote tampering. Gsn casino hack no survey aztec gold slot machine play online the unadjusted exit polls? 3d slots online casino for fun only slots best online casino europe are the probabilities?

     
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    • Richard Charnin

      April 8, 2016 at 6:47 pm

      I estimated that Bernie would have at least 100 more delegates

       
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