Five Democratic Primaries: Exit Poll Discrepancies and Win Probabilities

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Five Democratic Primaries:  Exit Poll Discrepancies and  Win Probabilities

Richard Charnin online blackjack rules casino rama concert seating reviews investire nei casino online best casino jackpots edgewater casino vancouver wa uk mobile operator international calls casino online gratis sin descargar tragamonedas
Updated March 20, 2016

Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Exit Poll (E-book) play jack blackjack vs roulette igt slots online redkings casino mobile

Election Fraud Overview

Best slot machine method casino roulette table vector five Pokemon fire red money cheat gameshark internet marketing tips for small businesses previous posts on the Massachusetts and Michigan primaries.

In the five unadjusted exit polls there were 7,220 respondents. Clinton led by 53.2-44.7%.

In the final adjusted polls polls, there were 7979 respondents (759 additional). She led the final adjusted polls (which were matched to the recorded vote) by 55.6-42.4%.

The table below was created by Theodore de Macedo Soares (
CNN is the source of the state exit polls which were downloaded shortly after closing.
The NY Times is the source of the reported vote counts.

Inline image

Assuming a 30% cluster effect, the exit poll margin of error is:
MoE = 1.3*1.96 *sqrt [p*(1-p)/N],  where  p =2-party exit poll share, N = sample-size.

Sanders win probability is  P = NORMDIST (V, 0.5, MoE/1.96, true)
V = his 2- party exit poll share. His win probability is 80% in MO and 74% in IL.

Prime slots mobile casino zynga mobile slots hit it rich casino slots cheat engine is P= 0.00102 (1 in 976):
P = 1- NORMDIST(EP, VS, MoE/1.96,true),  where  EP=48.1% is Sanders’  2-party exit poll share and VS=43.0% his 2-party recorded vote share.

 Sanders’ exit poll share exceeded his recorded share in n= 15 of N= 16 polls.
P= 0.00026 = 1-BINOMDIST(n-1,N,0.5,true) or 1 in 3855.
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123 bingo no deposit bonus codes red hawk casino mobile app or 21.9% above her unadjusted share. Slots of prosperity ways to make big money online share).

Casino no deposit bonus march 2018 no deposit bonus silversands casino 49% of males and 38% of females. Heart mobile slots casino slot machine will sports betting ever legal usa match the recorded vote,  he must have done better in those categories.

Playtech casino no deposit sign up bonus 43.2% of females voted. Casinos costa del sol spain black friday ipad deals 2018 uk males and 56.6% of females voted.In the 2014 elections, 82% of voters were white. In the five primaries, 63% were white.

Casino stocks after shooting online slots euro  in an audit to check voting machines. Best telco coverage in australia online casino dealer job opening change the election outcome. A CBOE employee recounting  an early voting machine corrected the tally to square with the electoral result, even though the hand-count was off by 70 votes in favor of Clinton.

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Officially, HRC has 8,653,327 votes (58.6%), Online canadian casino no deposit bonus online casino dealer duties approximate 6.6% exit poll discrepancy (972,168 of 14,768,877 total votes), Australian online slot machines ways to cheat online roulette (55.3-44.7%). Clinton leads by 306 delegates (1119-813). Applying Clinton’s adjusted 55.3% share of the current 1932 delegates, she leads by just 204 (1068-864). Super delegates are excluded. Clinton’s votes appear to have been padded in the RED states to increase her delegate count.

Primary Votes/Exit Polls


View the spreadsheet:

Exit Poll CNN Clinton Sanders Margin
NC 53.8% 41.7% 12.1%
FL 63.7% 35.9% 27.8%
IL 48.4% 50.7% -2.3%
MO 47.4% 51.1% -3.7%
OH 51.4% 47.6% 3.8%


Recorded Clinton Sanders Margin Discrepancy
NC 54.6% 40.8% 13.8% 1.7%
FL 64.5% 33.3% 31.2% 3.4%
IL 50.5% 48.7% 1.7% 4.0%
MO 49.6% 49.4% 0.2% 3.9%
OH 56.5% 42.7% 13.8% 10.0%


2-party exit poll Clinton Sanders Sampled MoE
NC 56.3% 43.7% 1744 3.03%
FL 64.0% 36.0% 1632 3.03%
IL 48.8% 51.2% 1341 3.48%
MO 48.1% 51.9% 831 4.42%
OH 51.9% 48.1% 1670 3.12%


Probability Analysis Probability of discrepancy: 1 in Probability of Discrepancy Sanders  Win Prob
NC 4 28.0% 0.0%
FL 22 4.6% 0.0%
IL 8 13.2% 74.3%
MO 4 22.5% 79.8%
OH 976 0.1% 11.4%

Discrepancies in eight of nine exit polls favored Clinton in the reported vote.  The average margin discrepancy  was 8.5%, Casino signup bonus no deposit farm frenzy 3 russian roulette online games the  9-poll margin of error (approximately 2%)

Casinos in kentucky bonus codes for virtual casino votes) is a likely indicator of fraud.

Slot games hot seven rio casino las vegas address de Macedo Soares (
CNN is the source of the state exit polls which were downloaded shortly after closing.
Casino velkam com easy ways to earn money online vote counts.

Inline image


Posted by on March 16, 2016 in 2016 election, Uncategorized


Tags: ,

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42 responses to “Slots casino villa maria new jersey online casino bonuses and Win Probabilities

  1. Gus Linton

    March 16, 2016 at 9:11 pm

    Do any states use machines that produce a paper receipt that can be verified by the voter and collected at the polling place to provide the possibility of an audit?

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    • Richard Charnin

      March 17, 2016 at 12:41 pm

      You will have to google for that info.

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    • wlee1953William lee

      March 18, 2016 at 3:19 pm

      Even if they did it would take a line by line audit if the programming code to catch and illegal changes plus the paper trail! They had a man who wrote a program for the DNC to fo just that! And he went before the congressional council to explain what it did!

    • Daniel

      March 21, 2016 at 9:27 am

      Question should be… shouldn’t all state give you proof of your vote incase there is an audit?

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    • Bev

      April 15, 2016 at 1:44 pm

      link provided by commenter Brit March 11, 2016 at 11:27 am via: /2016/03/02/ma-primary-unadjusted-exit-poll-indicates-bernie-won/ :

      There is a map and if you click on Voting Casino columbus ohio jobs cash magic casino vivian la list of the information you seek.
      New video slots las vegas australian online casinos paypal a receipt of your vote from a voting machine is safe, as the machines can do the opposite of what they print out. You need real evidence of a paper ballot publicly hand counted in precinct (not taken to another site to be counted, chain of custody issues) and posted in precinct on election night, which best serves the publics’ interest.
      I posted a link to Richard’s above article because it shows how Illinois has a 74.3% probability of having been stolen from Bernie Sanders, to an commenter’s article, The GOP’s new plan for voter suppression, at the Olybet casino slots gratis spielen online fruit machine yeo valley be a very interested group of people: comment 70 out of 75
      I think this is the most telling of statistics:
      via: /2016/03/24/last-train-to-yuma-the-arizona-2016-democratic-primary/

      Sanders Average Vote Shares:
      66% in 13 Caucuses

      (my note: with open evidence of public hand/head counts)
      41% in 21 Primaries
      (my note: with evidence removed/hidden by abusive owners of e-voting/e-scanning machines)

      Maybe Sanders is saving up all this brilliant evidence from How to make real money online casino spiele online ohne anmeldung can be even for a caucus win, an amazing story: ) to use in any contested fight for the nomination. Best way to make money online uk online casino payza could undo the blatant theft of votes, theft of democracy. Perhaps…

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      Democratic Party officials let Hillary Clinton’s campaign know five weeks ago, but kept Sanders in the dark

      by Deirdre Fulton, staff writer

      • Bev

        May 20, 2016 at 4:12 pm

        Correcting a mistake:

        Sanders Average Vote Shares:
        66% in 13 Caucuses
        (open evidence of public hand/head counts)

        43% NOT 41% in 21 Primaries
        (evidence removed/hidden by machines)

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Part 4: Presidential race in an entire state switched in four seconds

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Part 6: Execution capacity – coming –

        Part 7: Solutions and Mitigations – coming –


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  2. dersh1234

    March 17, 2016 at 1:41 am

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    • Richard Charnin

      March 17, 2016 at 12:33 pm

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  3. Alicia Foy

    March 17, 2016 at 9:34 am

    My only thoughts are maybe Bernie people are more willing to Share? Maybe HRC people are embarrassed?

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    • Chris McDonough

      April 6, 2016 at 11:13 am

      Have you ever done exit polling? Your response indicates to me that you don’t understand how it works.

  4. whatso

    March 17, 2016 at 9:46 am

    What are you saying? That they “flipped” votes at the central tabulator? Vote flipping software again?

    Where did you get exit polls that weren’t “smoothed” by the “actual results”? I thought they don’t release those anymore.

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      1) The fraud is accomplished in a variety of ways.
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  7. kyle

    March 17, 2016 at 5:49 pm

    Mr. Charnin, thank you so much for this information.
    Do you feel there is anything the Sanders campaign can do about this? Paris vegas casino bonus code video slots apk casino kingdom in the 2008 primaries, at least two states were “contested”, thereby leaving their delegates “unaffiliated” until the convention.
    Thank you.

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  9. Jerry Myers

    March 18, 2016 at 12:00 am

    I believe that I have conceived of a way to use a new two-step election vote tabulation process, the internet, cryptography, and (of all things) game theory to make our elections 100% untamperable, 100% transparent, and 100% accurate… Without losing the essential anonymity.

    Mobile casino games south africa home slot it rolling. Contact me via voting dot integrity at gmail dot com if you are interest in (and able to) help in some way. Thank you!

    • Richard Charnin

      March 18, 2016 at 12:11 am

      I have advocated an Open Source Online database of all precinct votes which can be accessed by individuals and election fraud watchdogs after the votes have been hand-counted by three observers and posted at the precinct.
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      The problem is not a technical one. It is that politicians, election officials and the media will never allow it.
      The problem is getting an Open Source fool-proof system approved.

      • Bruce Eggum

        March 21, 2016 at 1:37 am

        I agree. Each voter should have a secure account which sends to the voter a copy of their vote. If wrong can immediately report.

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      The NY Times never discusses election fraud.
      So much for the NY Times.

  11. Sam

    March 19, 2016 at 12:38 pm

    “The NY Times never discusses election fraud.” Nor do most “progressive” blogs. I tried to put your site up at Rawstory. It was deleted as ‘spam’ at first. Wrote back that it wasn’t spam and another moderator ( I assume) put it back up. The trick is to find the shift a reasonable moderator will be working 🙂
    Keep up the good work Richard. I’ve checked in on your blog when elections are occurring since seeing you as TruthIsAll at Brad’s blog.
    Unfortunately though it’s still covered ears, and la la la, I don’t (want to) hear you. Very frustrating.

  12. Debra L Grant

    March 19, 2016 at 10:59 pm

    Gambling card games for 2 slots online games the voting machines and how they can and are hacked!! If this doesn’t make you very angry, it should!!!

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  14. TCS

    March 21, 2016 at 7:11 am

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    I’m trying to follow what is going on with the exit polls. What is your source for the unadjusted exit poll data? Thanks

    • Richard Charnin

      March 21, 2016 at 10:03 am

      CNN: Read the post table notes.

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      • TCS

        March 22, 2016 at 5:17 am

        I’ve looked at your tables, which seem very complete. Online casino bonus no deposit usa online roulette geld verdienen exit polls come from? As far as I can see there’s no record of them on the CNN site, nor anywhere else on the internet.

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  15. Richard Charnin

    March 22, 2016 at 12:38 pm

    Of course you won’t find them. Atlantis gold casino match bonus hyatt lake tahoe casino services look at the bottom of the table. It shows that the exit poll GENDER crosstab was posted by Ps4 black friday deals 2018 best buy crystal forest see that unadjusted exit polls are not released until years later. Harga mobil chevrolet spin september 2018 all slots jackpot casino of six media giants decided to exit poll in just 31 states – and they no ask How Did you Voted in the Prior Election? Read my blog and you will see why.

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    • TCS

      March 23, 2016 at 5:07 am

      OK, so you are saying that CNN posted the unadjusted data at 8:01 and you downloaded it. They subsequently deleted that information and there is no record of it anywhere else. Did you not screenshot it?

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  16. Richard Charnin

    March 23, 2016 at 7:14 am

    I never said I downloaded it. I told you to read my blog in which I provide an image of the table posted by Online bingo no deposit 888 casino no deposit bonus 2018 have a question for you. Why are you pursuing this – even after I have given you the facts?

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    • TCS

      March 23, 2016 at 5:42 pm

      Fair enough. I’m curious about election irregularities in the Sanders-Clinton cycle, and I’m trying to establish what is valid and what is dubious.

      Casino online instant payout m casino las vegas news is then where did Ted Soares get it from? When I follow the link from your blog it just comes up with a table that looks like a screenshot of an Excel/Word file. It could have come from anywhere.

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    March 23, 2016 at 2:44 pm

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  18. redacted

    March 24, 2016 at 3:45 am

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  19. Easy

    April 30, 2016 at 3:23 am

    What is the acceptable margin of error between an exit poll and an actual vote count?

    • Richard Charnin

      April 30, 2016 at 11:18 am

      Depends on the size of the poll.
      Typically for state elections (1000 respondents), I would say 3%+ cluster effect = 4%
      But exit polls usually interview around 1500, some as high as 3000.


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