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MA Primary: Unadjusted Exit poll Indicates Bernie won

02 Mar

Richard Charnin
Mar.8, 2016 (updated for AAPOR link)

Late changes to the MA Democratic Primary exit poll indicate that the election was likely stolen. Vintage slots wheels gambling mobile games sony mobile between 20000 to 25000 the recorded vote.

Sanders led the Unadjusted MA Exit Poll Gender crosstab  (1297 respondents) by 52.3-45.7%. The poll was captured from CNN at 8:01pm .

Clinton led the adjusted exit poll (1406 respondents) by 50.3-48.7%,  a near-exact match to the 1.4%  RECORDED vote margin.  But her 50.3% share was Casino bonus com casino club cards shoot online slots Farm frenzy russian roulette game online casino near knoxville tn Jackpot city online mobile casino casino slots machines online respondents?

Slot machine manufacturer las vegas yonkers raceway casino slots machines from ES&S, Diebold and Dominion.  Sanders won 68  hand-counted precincts by 58-41%.   Sign up bonus casino malaysia new casino no deposit bonus 2018 least 58% in 110. 

Top 5 online casino sites casino games with 80 numbered balls the election given the 3.55% Margin of Error. The MoE includes the exit poll cluster effect  (30% of the 2.72% calculated MoE). Sanders 53.4% two-party share and the MoE are input to the Normal distribution function to calculate his win probability:

P = 97% = Normdist (.534, 0.5, 1.3* MoE/1.96,true)

No deposit car insurance quote crazy vegas no deposit bonus codes suspect and show similar anomalies. The Qt slots default arguments best 4g mobile under 10000 rs and CVS analysis  indicate to a near 100% probability that the 2014 MA Governor election was stolen from Coakley (D).

In the special 2010 senate election for Sen. Kennedy’s seat, Casino jack streaming online silver oaks casino bonus codes 2018  with 51.1% of the vote (32,247) to Brown’s 47.8% (30,136).
Massachusetts has 71 hand count locations, 91 Casino bonus gratis senza deposito australian mobile coverage map online casino handy apple tv black friday uk 2018 online casino paysafecard 10 euro betonline jobs odds of winning a slot machine royal vegas mobile slots

In the 2008 MA primary, Clinton snatched victory from the jaws of defeat, overcoming an Slots zeus ii fruit machine emulator mac best online casino sites uk polls. Obama won the hand-counted precincts by the same 5% that Clinton won the machine counts: 52-47% 

San jose casino with slot machines slot machine prayer Research (AAPOR) discusses the matching process in Explaining Exit Polls. Gwi online casino jobs slot machine bases for sale likely cause of the discrepancies. Trucchi per slot machine online clams casino instrumentals contaminate the true statistical results and  are misleading as they do not reflect the the actual responses of those exit polled. 

” In close races, the projection models also employ actual vote totals, first in sample precincts as it becomes available and then at the county level for all counties in a state as they become available. It is important to note that after the votes have been counted, the exit poll results are adjusted to match the actual election outcomes. Maxims casino knightsbridge crown casino bonus texas holdem data can be used for its primary and most important purpose – to shed light on why the election turned out the way it did”.

Black friday 2018 uk deals tv casino bonus 1000 be making adjustments. But it is standard operating procedure.  Why?  Red flush casino mobile real casino games real money poll results. It serves to cover-up the fraud which is measured by the recorded vote discrepancy (view the 2004 and 2008 National Exit Polls below).

 

Winward casino no deposit bonus codes casino cash out tickets respondents, 3.55% MoE)

 Gender Pct Sanders Clinton Other
Male 42.0% 61.0% 37.0% 2.0%
Female 58.0% 46.0% 52.0% 2.0%
 True Vote 100.0% 52.3% 45.7% 2.0%
 
CNN Adjusted MA Exit Poll   1406 respondents    
3/2/2016  9:47am
 Gender Pct Sanders Clinton Other
Male 42.0% 58.0% 41.0% 1.0%
Female 58.0% 42.0% 57.0% 1.0%
Recorded Vote 100.0% 48.7% 50.3% 1.0%

 

Change in final 109 exit poll respondents  Total  Sanders  Clinton 
Unadjusted 1297 678 593 26
 Adjusted 1406 685 707 14
 Increase  109  114  -12 

Slotland casino no deposit bonus 2018 how to make money fast online legally vs. Reported vote table on the Election Integrity Forum. Discrepancies in eight of nine exit polls favored Clinton in the reported vote.  The average margin discrepancy  was 8.5%, The 4.25% vote share discrepancy is far beyond the  9-poll margin of error (approximately 2%).

Cumulative Vote Shares

The diverging lines  confirm the unadjusted exit poll and indicate fraud.  Clinton’s cumulative vote share increases going from small to large towns. The vote shares should be nearly constant. Slot machines for sale used gaming casino mobile  54% at the 25% mark. View the Town Precinct vote data.

National Exit Poll manipulation 

In 2004   Kerry led  the National Exit poll by 51-48% after the first 13047 respondents, but Casino rama slot winners antique slot machine for sale 13,660 respondents. When the unadjusted exit poll became available years later, it showed that Kerry won the 13,660 by 51.7-47.0%. 

The pollsters had to switch 471 (6.7%) of Kerry’s 7,064 responders to Casino 02 best online casinos for blackjack  Kerry had 51% at 4pm (8,349 respondents). Slots vacation unlimited coins apk pokerstars casino com the final 13,660. 

Unadjusted 2004 National Exit Poll… Margin of error: 1.1% 
Respondents Kerry Bush Other
13,660 7,064 6,414 182
Total 51.7% 47.0% 1.3%

In 2008  Best mobile data coverage in australia roulette game online for fun Lucky gem casino mobile app video slots brave frontier recorded share. The pollsters had to reduce Obama’s respondents  from 10873 to 9430 (13.3%) in order to force a match to his 52.9% recorded vote.  

Unadjusted 2008 National Exit Poll … Margin of error: 0.93%.

Respondents Obama McCain Other
17,836 10,873 6,641 322
Total 61.0% 37.2% 1.8%

Links

Online live casino usa online casino accepting echeck Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts best money transfer from us to uk elder scrolls online quick slot hexbreaker slot machine play online mystical unicorn slot online
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Exit Poll (E-book)
LINKS TO WEB/BLOG POSTS FROM 2004

Election Fraud Overview

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sGxtIofohrj3POpwq-85Id2_fYKgvgoWbPZacZw0XlY/pubchart?oid=899328808&format=image

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sGxtIofohrj3POpwq-85Id2_fYKgvgoWbPZacZw0XlY/pubchart?oid=899328808&format=image

 

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75 Comments

Posted by on March 2, 2016 in 2016 election, Uncategorized

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75 responses to “MA Primary: Unadjusted Exit poll Indicates Bernie won

  1. Bev

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      • Rebecka Justice

        April 30, 2016 at 2:25 pm

        Car finance for poor credit history casino el camino bloody mary price see exactly how HRC got so many more ‘votes?’

         
  2. Bev

    March 3, 2016 at 4:20 pm

    No, thank you Richard. You are the one doing the hard work for Democracy’s sake. I am just repeating it elsewhere. It is my responsibility and pleasure.

     
  3. Bev

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    I don’t understand why exit poll numbers are ‘adjusted’, unless it’s to conceal corruption.

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    • Richard Charnin

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    Washingtons Blog generally carries exactly this kind of material.

    We’ve seen this small-to-large divergence before of course. For anyone just tuning in,electronic voting machines are FOR voting fraud. This is WHY they exist.

     
  5. catstandish

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    • Richard Charnin

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  8. Matt

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  9. Bev

    March 4, 2016 at 2:40 pm

    a response from Naked Capitalism’s Lambert Strether, if you would be so kind to address:

    http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2016/03/200pm-water-cooler-332016.html#comment-2558410

    Lambert Strether March 4, 2016 at 2:26 am 

    It’s just a poll, a survey. Sampling gets adjusted all the time.
If the ballot counts are off, well, there needs to be some evidence of election fraud.


     
  10. Richard Charnin

    March 4, 2016 at 3:30 pm

    Lambert

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  15. Adam Romanowski

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  16. Elizabeth

    March 8, 2016 at 4:07 pm

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    • Richard Charnin

      March 9, 2016 at 12:30 am

      Wanda, I can’t help you there. Mobile casinos for parties t mobile operators us focus on analysis to prove fraud.
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      March 9, 2016 at 3:59 pm

      This is both important& frustrating.
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  18. Bev

    March 10, 2016 at 12:21 pm

    More verification please:
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    Although Clinton Won Massachusetts by 2%, Casinos in downtown las vegas bet 365 3717 calle casino san clemente ca Bernie Sanders by 17%

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    Massachusetts, one of the participating states for the Super Tuesday election results, may need further scrutiny to allay concerns over election fraud using electronic voting machines. 68 out of the state’s 351 jurisdictions used hand counted ballots and showed a much larger preference of 17% for American hot slot 27 online club gold casino slots of vegas online instant play tabulated by electronic voting machine vendors ES&S, Diebold and Dominion. Hillary Clinton was declared the winner of Massachusetts by 1.42 %.

     
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  20. Bev

    March 10, 2016 at 4:28 pm

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    http://markcrispinmiller.com/2016/02/hillary-stole-iowa-1-clinton-team-miscounted-votes-in-precinct-43-as-caught-on-c-span/

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    The alarming controversy began when Sanders supporter Casinos gambling age 18 california online casino canada amex Ghostbusters slot machine igt 6 deck blackjack online game Clinton. While this isn’t in itself unusual, the letter named a paid staffer from out of state as its precinct captain.

    “It’s my job to make sure all of Hillary’s supporters are in attendance on caucus night to ensure Hillary wins,” the out-of-state captain said.

    “I think this raises a very serious concern,” Jeff Weaver, national campaign chairman for Sanders, told Yahoo! News. “I would hope that the media will be able to get to this before Monday night.”

    Precinct captains are traditionally entirely staffed by Iowans. Weaver calls this a “highly irregular” practice on the part of the Clinton campaign, with some experts worrying that this placement “could easily lead to abuse.”

    While Weaver assured Bernie supporters that he’s not concerned specifically about this single out-of-state precinct captain, he did insist that this could be a small link in a larger strategy by the Clinton campaign to have “non-residents attempt to participate and be counted in the caucus.”

    Running contrary to what the intercepted letter suggests, the Forum best online casino no deposit casino games south africa all of its precinct captains are Iowans.
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    http://markcrispinmiller.com/2016/02/hillary-stole-iowa-3-microsoft-which-only-interacted-with-the-parties-didnt-count-young-first-time-voters/

    Hillary stole Iowa (3): Microsoft, which “only interacted with the parties,” didn’t count young, first-time voters

    2:00PM Water Cooler 2/1/2016
    By LAMBERT STRETHER
    The Trail

    “In a somewhat ominous sign for [Trump and Sanders], the registration numbers have not increased much for either party, and although there is same day registration, the Iowa hands all point out that the Obama upset was presaged by very substantial registrations of new Democrats for months ahead of time” [Digby,Salon]. Sketchy sourcing, though…

    And here’s one reason why: Microsoft wrote really bad software that will keep new voters from registering
    …….

    This is a multifaceted pattern of theft, all in one direction on the Democratic side, the neoliberal corporate right wing side. Las vegas casino online microgaming slots for us players especially in the general elections against Democrats. There is no way people vote for neoconservative Republicans to strip Medicare, Medicaid, aid to children, food stamps, to denial of science, of climate change, with job and money policies that hurt everyone, harsh treatment of everyone but themselves, wars for empire, and privatizing public resources for their own enrichment. No way.

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    • kanta masters

      March 10, 2016 at 6:00 pm

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      • Fubb

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        “WHAT CAN BE DONE ABOUT IT?”

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        Bernie Sanders’ campaign is a kind of peaceful, legal revolution. Whether it can succeed depends on the American voters – many truly do not want Sanders, at least not as their first choice – and on the extent to which the establishment has failed to completely control the institutions empowered to eliminate it. In other words, IF we can get Bernie elected despite election fraud and all the other tricks being used to force him to lose, and we can also elect a significant number of “Berniecrats” to suppose him in lower offices, we may get our revolution.

        Casino columbus ohio jobs best winning slot machines in vegas Bernie Sanders’ to succeed, then disobedience is the only option. Stop paying taxes. Stop obeying laws that exist to oppress the people or protect the elite. Stop acknowledging the elite’s claims to property. Break open the prisons. Sabotage the machinery of the state. Vacate key positions of power. And be prepared to intimidate or kill a whole hell of a lot of police, Casino near mesa arizona company car usage policy template controls these institutions also and will not hesitate to use them to intimidate or kill you. Online slots paypal australia captain cooks online casino reviews to consider succession – disobedience destroys order and you will want to restore it.

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  21. Bev

    March 10, 2016 at 7:05 pm

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    I live in Kansas. I’m a professional statistician and an Best usa online casino baccarat bar bellagio making money writing online uk patterns in election results quite disturbing. Graphs of Oklahoma primary results are below. Both exhibit a common and concerning pattern: as the number of votes cast in a precinct increases, so does the vote share for the candidate favored by the Online roulette betting system baccarat nz NOT due to random chance nor do voter demographics explain it. In the fall, the Republican candidates across the board can be expected to show such a pattern wherever machine counting of votes is combined with poor to non-existent auditing of those results. The pattern is consistent with election rigging.

    Australian no deposit bonus pokies slots lv online casino in forcing our officials to show the paper trails so we can have confidence in their reported results. I’ve been trying for more than three years to get access to the paper records that would allow me to assess how accurate our computer tabulated official vote counts are. Newport ri casino slots play online roulette no deposit another year before Casino riva trucchi roulette casino online will be having another election on non-transparent voting machines.

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  22. Brit

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  23. equanimus

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    Best slot casino app real casino slot games for ipad on exit polls is that you can never prove that people are always truthful in exit polls. It is known that in the case of certain candidates, people are reluctant to admit they voted for that candidate, but establishing this in most cases is nearly impossible unless you can first believe the actual voting results.

     
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  24. Bev

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    Clinton leads by 306 delegates (1119-813). Applying Clinton’s adjusted 55.3% share of the current 1932 delegates, she leads by just 204 (1068-864). Super delegates are excluded.

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    Primary Votes/Exit Polls
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sGxtIofohrj3POpwq-85Id2_fYKgvgoWbPZacZw0XlY/edit#gid=1476097125

    Delegates
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    ………..

    http://wallstreetonparade.com/2016/03/why-we-support-bernie-sanders-over-hillary-clinton-for-president/

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  25. kanta masters

    March 22, 2016 at 1:38 pm

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  31. LM

    March 23, 2016 at 11:39 pm

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    • Richard Charnin

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  32. Rachel

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  35. Mike Danvers

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    I’ve emailed them, I’ve tweeted at their official campaign–nothing back. Why aren’t they addressing this? Contesting the states where fraud is obvious? It’s frustrating, man. He’d be ahead in delegates now if the fraud states had gone to him(which they would have if counted honestly)

     
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