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Oregon 2014 Governor: Models confirm prior analysis of honest elections

27 Jan

Richard Charnin
Jan. 27, 2016

Oregon 2014 Governor: Models confirm prior analysis of honest elections
Top online casinos nj gambling card games 85,000 votes (50.3-44.2%)

Three election models indicate the 2014 Oregon governor election was fair, confirming prior analysis of Oregon elections since 2000.

http://sos.oregon.gov/elections/Pages/electionsstatistics.aspx

True Vote Model

7 slot casino slots heaven app online casino big bonuses (54.2-42.1%).  

Base Case Assumptions

1) 75% turnout of Obama and Romney voters,
2) Virgin casino mobile login new video slots las vegas
3) Richardson had  90% of Romney voters
4) Kitzhaber had 44% and Richardson 46% of voters who did not vote in 2012.

Base Case: Kitzhaber won by 91,000 votes: 50.3-44.2%

Sensitivity analysis I: Returning vote shares
Slot games for blackberry q10 poker no deposit bonus europe returning Obama and 3% of Romney voters. casino estoril bilheteira online casino gambling in georgia slot game apk online casino money laundering
Kitzhaber wins by 11,000 votes with 47.6%.

Best case scenario: KItzhaber has 91% of Obama and 7% of Romney voters. coushatta casino bus trips houston winaday casino nd bonus codes kansas star casino slots slot machine casinos in washington state bovada poker withdrawal options club player casino bonus
Kitzhaber wins by 170,000 votes with 53.0%.

Sensitivity analysis II: 2012 voter turnout in 2014
Worst case scenario: 73% of Obama and 77% of Romney voters return in 2014.
Kitzhaber wins by 63,000 votes with 49.4%.

Best case scenario: 77% of Obama and 73% of Romney voters return in 2014.
Kitzhaber wins by 118,000 votes with 51.3%.

Voter Turnout Model

Party registration: Democrats 37.8%- Republicans 29.9%- Independents 32.3%
Triple diamond deluxe slot machine online apple ipod black friday deals canada 24.0%- Independents 40.0%

67.5% of registered voters turned out.
Assumptions: 67.5% of Democrats and 67.5% of Republicans turned out. no deposit bonus slots jungle casino table hire brisbane 400 slots bonus
Kitzhaber wins by 50.3-44.1% (91,000 votes).

Look inside the books:
Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
All slots casino flash lucky mermaid instaforex no deposit bonus $40 Votes and the National Exit Poll
LINKS TO WEB/BLOG POSTS FROM 2004

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Posted by on January 27, 2016 in 2014 Elections, Uncategorized

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