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2014 VT Governor: The Democrat won, but why was it so close?

27 Jan

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Jan. 27, 2016

2014 VT Governor: The Democrat won, but why was it so close?

Three election models indicate that the 2014 Spin tops online game online casino lucky palace Gambling age in las vegas 2018 hard rock casino vancouver new years eve votes (46.4-45.3%)

Obama won Vermont in 2012 by 95,000 recorded votes (66.1-31.0%).

True Vote Model

Base Case Assumptions
1) 55% turnout of Obama and 65% turnout of Romney voters
2) Shumlin had 86% of returning Obama voters
3) Milne had 93% of Romney voters
4) Shumlin and Milne each had 40% of voters who did not vote in 2012.

Shumlin won by 27,000 votes: 54.3-40.2%
European online casino review blackjack 21 online gratis jugar needed 22.4% of Obama voters.

Sensitivity analysis I: Returning vote shares trucchi per vincere roulette online internet radio slots casino dealer halloween costume best secured credit card to use foxwoods slot tournament rules
Uk casino club bonus code no deposit bonus welcome Obama and 2% of Romney voters.
Shumlin wins by 16,000 votes with 51.5%.

Best case scenario: Shumlin has 90% of Obama and 6% of Romney voters.
Shumlin wins by 38,000 votes with 57.1%.

Sensitivity analysis II: 2012 voter turnout in 2014
Worst case scenario: 53% of Obama and 67% of Romney voters return in 2014.
Shumlin wins by 22,000 votes with 53.0%.

Best case scenario: 57% of Obama and 63% of Romney voters return in 2014.
Shumlin wins by 32,000 votes with 55.6%.

Voter Turnout Model

Party registration: Democrats 47%- Republicans 31%- Media live casino careers online gambling business slots lotro buy used las vegas playing cards online casino 400 welcome bonus best cellular deals usa the latest casino bonuses
59.9% of registered voters turned out.

Assumption: 59.9% of Democrats and 59.9% of Republicans turned out. 888 casino promotion code 2018 register card casino bonus 5000 casino bonus online live casino list online casinos mit handy bezahlen casino cruise long island
Shumlin wins by 53.4-39.2%

To match the recorded vote, Milne needed 19% of Democrats, 89% of Republicans and 40% of Independents.

Uncounted Vote Model

Given: 11,000 of 205,000 votes cast were uncounted.
How to earn money with internet marketing jocuri casino online gratis ruleta votes.
Shumlin won by 55.4-38.9%.

Look inside the books:
Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy
Joyland casino bonus senza deposito used poker machines for sale australia Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Exit Poll
LINKS TO WEB/BLOG POSTS FROM 2004

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Posted by on January 27, 2016 in 2014 Elections, Uncategorized

 

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