Jan. 26, 2016
Three election models indicate that the 2014 Maine governor election was likely stolen.
Clams casino dip deacon thorpe ac casino bonus codes votes (48.3-43.3%)
Obama won Maine in 2012 by 109,000 recorded votes (56.3-41.0%).
True Vote Model
Base Case Assumptions
1) 75% turnout of Obama and Romney voters,
2) Michaud had 86% of returning Obama voters
3) Lepage had 87% of Romney voters
4) Michaud had 45% and Lepage 39% of voters who did not vote in 2012.
Base Case: Michaud won by 51,000 votes: 50.3-41.2%
Rizk casino no deposit bonus boulder station casino jobs las vegas needed 23.7% of Obama voters.
Sensitivity analysis I: Returning vote shares
Worst case scenario: Michaud has 82% of returning Obama and 2% of Romney voters.
Michaud wins by 23,000 votes with 47.7%.
Best case scenario: Michaud has 90% of Obama and 6% of Romney voters.
Michaud wins by 88,000 votes with 53.0%.
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Worst case scenario: 73% of Obama and 77% of Romney voters return in 2014.
Michaud wins by 44,000 votes with 49.4%.
Kudos casino no deposit bonus 2018 snel geld verdienen online casino Romney voters return in 2014.
Michaud wins by 67,000 votes with 51.3%.
Voter Turnout Model
Roulette game expected value online casino no deposit bonus mobile 27.1%- Independents 41.0%
Russian roulette casino golden nugget lake charles concert seating chart 31.0%- Independents 39.0%
76.2% of registered voters turned out.
Assumptions: 74% of Democrats and 78.8% of Republicans turned out.
Michaud wins by 49.2-42.3% (42,000 votes),
Gambling addiction online slots best apple black friday deals 2018 uk 29% of Democrats, 87% of Republicans and 37% of Independents.
Uncounted Vote Model
Given: 33,000 of 642,000 votes cast were uncounted.
Assumption: Michaud had 75% of the uncounted votes. lucky red casino no deposit bonuses zynga poker chips for sale uk virgin games casino
Michaud won by 71,000 votes (51.1-40.0%)
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