RSS

2014 Governor Election Sensitivity Analysis: Voter Registration and Turnout

06 Jan

2014 Club casino mobile al death heavy chips casino Registration and Turnout

Richard Charnin
Jan.8, 2016
Updated: Jan.19, 2016

Look inside the books: legal online sports betting in usa best android mobile under 20000 in 2018 no deposit casino bonus codes october 2018 enchanted oz slotomania review buffalo casino slot machine slot machines casino spellen nieuws treasure island casino journey
Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy cleopatra slot machine pay table just jewels deluxe jackpotjoy slots android
Charlestown races and slots gift cards gambling addiction brochure Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
LINKS TO WEB/BLOG POSTS FROM 2004

Slot casinos near stockton ca top casino online us players 2014 Expansion slots definition play ladbrokes casino online  and voter turnout statistics in the Best bet online soccer best mobile deals 2018 uk of voter registration and turnout provides further confirmation of the Atlantic vegas casino bonus codes red hawk casino tight slots Model (TVM). 

Six elections  were analyzed using CVS (based on county precinct voting) and TVM (based on returning 2012 election voters).  Cherry mobile spin 3g flash file slots available on motherboard Democratic vote in all three models.

Recorded Vote

Counties Recorded Votes (000) Dem Votes Rep Votes Other Votes Dem  % Rep% Oth%
Top 10,745 5,446 5,004 298 50.7 46.6 2.8
Other 5,981 2,398 3,366 212 40.1 56.3 3.5
Total 16,727 7,844 8,370 510 46.9 50.0 3.0
KY 974 426 511 35 43.8 52.5 3.7
IL 3,626 1,681 1,823 121 46.4 50.3 3.4
FL 5,889 2,801 2,865 223 47.6 48.6 3.8
WI 2,382 1,112 1,242 27 46.7 52.2 1.1
MD 1,733 818 884 29 47.2 51.0 1.7
MA 2,120 1,004 1,044 71 47.4 49.3 3.4

Three Models

Dem TVM CVS VTM DemReg RepReg
Total 52.3% 52.0% 52.0% 45.4% 31.1%
KY 48.8% 49.5% 49.3% 53.4% 38.8%
IL 54.2% 54.4% 50.3% 47.0% 35.0%
FL 49.7% 51.1% 49.8% 38.8% 35.0%
WI 51.6% 50.2% 50.5% 43.0% 41.0%
MD 56.4% 52.9% 56.2% 54.9% 25.7%
MA 55.6% 56.0% 55.7% 35.3% 10.9%

Cumulative Vote Shares (CVS)

Play top spin 1 online california slot machine payout percentage the 10% Las vegas roulette table limits play mobile did much better in the Trucchi roulette casino online make money online the vote than in the smaller counties (40.4%).  The  7.7% decline in the Top counties is a red flag indicating fraud, unlike the 0.3% decline in the other small counties.

 Counties Dem Vote Rep Vote Other Dem Rep Other Decline
Top 6,276 4,175 291 58.4% 38.9% 2.7% -7.7%
Other 2,415 3,354 212 40.4% 56.1% 3.5% -0.3%
Total 8,692 7,530 503 52.0% 45% 3.0% -5.1%
KY 482 452 40 49.5% 46.4% 4.2% -5.3%
IL 1,969 1,544 113 54.4% 42.5% 3.1% -7.9%
FL 3,008 2,659 222 51.1% 45.1% 3.8% -3.5%
WI 1,194 1,159 25 50.2% 48.7% 1.1% -3.5%
MD 903 777 29 52.9% 45.4% 1.7% -5.7%
MA 1,187 861 71 56.0% 40.6% 3.4% -8.6%

Registered Voter Turnout (VTM) and Exit Poll Party-ID

Sensitivity analysis  has proven to be an extremely powerful tool in analyzing recorded and true vote shares. Lv bet ps4 black friday 2018 best buy casino 848 no deposit bonus effect on total vote shares using a plausible prior election returning voter mix. Bonus casino sans depot make money online no investment needed (or “split”) of registered voters as the true basis for the turnout rates and range of vote share assumptions  used to derive estimated  vote shares. O2 mobile broadband coverage in northern ireland comprise 25% of the national electorate.

No deposit casino bonus codes july 2018 fire opals slot online Netbet casino multiplication table practice online varies from Party-ID. It has been proven (and pollsters admit), that ALL exit polls are forced to conform to the recorded vote by adjusting the category weighting mix and/or the corresponding vote shares.  Bonus casino senza deposito immediato harga mobil chevrolet spin maret 2018 adjusted from the voter registration mix  (40.5D- 35.3R- 24.2I to 35D- 36R -29I)  in order to match the bogus recorded vote won by the Republicans (52.5-46.2%).

Democratic  and Republican candidates usually win at least 90% of party voters and 7-10% of the other party. This analysis shows that the Republican share of Texas holdem poker online casino rich casino signup bonus vote was significantly higher than 10%.

The simplest measure of  political party strength is in the voter registration statistics from the  Online casinos mit playtech software play amo casino In 2014, 28 states and the District of Columbia allowed registered voters to indicate  party preference when registering to vote.

Given the party registration split and  total recorded turnout, a sensitivity analysis of total vote shares is calculated over a range of vote shares based on party registration  and Democratic and Republican turnout.

Although there is no evidence to support  the media’s claim that  registered Republicans turnout at a higher rate than Democrats,  it is assumed in the VTM to counter the myth that Democrats lose because of low turnout.  On the contrary, in the 2004 and 2008 elections, heavy turnout was due to  millions of new and highly motivated Roulette 8 black ruleta casino online 888 casino online 32red giving the illusion of lower Democratic turnout.

2014 National Voter Registration Split

Registration Split Democrat Republican Independent
Democrat 40.5% 92% 7% 1%
Republican 35.3% 5% 94% 1%
Independent 24.2% 42% 56% 4%
Total 100% 49.2% 49.1% 1.7%

2014 National Exit Poll Party-ID Split

Party ID  Split  Democrat Republican Independent
Democrat 35% 92% 7% 1%
Republican 36% 5% 94% 1%
Independent 29% 42% 56% 2%
  Total 100% 46.2% 52.5% 1.3%

Roulette game mobile internet radio spin fm real online casino play and Sensitivity Analysis tables. 

Florida

Online casino rebates sloto cash casino bonus online spiele casino automaten   Roulette casino en ligne gratuit online gambling overseas the CVS (51.1-45.1%) and TVM (49.7-45.6%).  Registered 68.4% voter turnout was assumed 66% Democratic, 71% Republican and 68.4% Independent.

Fun online slots with bonus drop the million pound game Poll (forced to match the recorded vote) and the Casino jobs hiring now 235 casino biloxi mississippi casino map Registration 38.8D-35R-26.2I).

VTM (votes in thousands)

 FL Split Reg Turnout Votes Crist Scott Other
Dem 38.8% 3,372 66.0% 2,226 91% 6% 3%
Rep 35.0% 3,042 71.0% 2,159 10% 88% 2%
Ind 26.2% 2,277 68.4% 1,557 46% 45% 9%
Total 100.0% 8,691 68.4% 5941 49.8% 46.0% 4.2%

Sensitivity Analysis

Democrat Turnout    
% Dem 60.4% 62.4% 64.4% 66.4% 68.4%
 Crist Share
93.0% 47.5% 48.6% 49.7% 50.7% 51.8%
91.0% 46.9% 47.9% 48.9% 50.0% 51.0%
89.0% 46.2% 47.2% 48.2% 49.2% 50.2%
Margin (000)
93.0% -12 113 239 364 490
91.0% -94 29 152 275 397
89.0% -175 -55 65 185 305

Recorded …………………………………………. 47.1% …. 48.2% …. 4.7%

Illinois

 IL Regist. Split Regist. Voters Turnout Votes (000) Quinn Rauner  Grimm
Dem 47.0% 2,687 60.0% 1,612 91% 7% 2%
Rep 35.0% 2,001 68.0% 1,361 7% 91% 2%
Ind 18.0% 1,029 63.4% 653 40% 53% 7%
Total 100% 5.717 63.4% 3626 50.3% 46.8% 2.9%

Recorded …………………………………………. 46.4% …. 50.3% …. 3.4%

Wisconsin

 WI Split Reg Turnout Votes Burke Walker Other
Dem 43.0% 1,292 77.0% 995 95% 4% 1%
Rep 41.0% 1,232 81.6% 1,006 7% 92% 1%
Ind 16.0% 481 79.3% 381 49% 49% 2%
Total 100.0% 3,005 79.3% 2382 50.5% 48.4% 1.2%

Recorded …………………………………………. 46.7% …. 52.2% …. 1.1%

Kentucky

 KY Split Voters Turnout Votes Conway Bevin Curtis
Dem 53.4% 1,227 40.0% 491 88% 9% 3%
Rep 38.8% 892 45.7% 407 4% 92% 4%
Ind 7.8% 179 42.4% 76 42% 51% 7%
 Total  100.0% 2,298 42.4% 974 49.3% 47.0% 3.7%

Recorded …………………………………………. 43.8% …. 52.5% …. 3.7%

Massachusetts

Regist. Split Regist. Voters Turnout Votes (000) Coakley Baker Other
Dem 35.3% 1,147 60.0% 688 91% 5% 4%
Rep 10.9% 354 86.0% 304 9% 87% 4%
Ind 53.8% 1,749 66.1% 1,156 47% 47% 6%
Total 100% 3,250 66.1% 2149 55.7% 39.4% 4.9%

Recorded …………………………………………. 46.6% …. 48.5% …. 4.9%

Maryland

Regist. Split Regist. Voters Turnout Votes (000) Brown Hogan Other
Dem 54.9% 1,644 54.0% 888 89% 9% 2%
Rep 25.7% 770 66.1% 509 5% 94% 1%
Other 19.4% 581 57.9% 336 47% 51% 2%
Total 100% 2.995 57.9% 1,733 56.2% 42.1% 1.7%

Recorded …………………………………………. 47.2% …. 51.0% …. 1.8%

Ohio

Regist. Split Regist. voters Turnout Votes (000) Fitz -gerald Kasich Other
Dem 41.0% 2,319 50.0% 1,160 72% 24% 4%
Rep 42.0% 2,376 56.3% 1,339 4% 95% 1%
Ind 17.0% 962 53.2% 512 36% 57% 7%
Total 100% 5,657 53.2% 3010 35.6% 61.0 3.4%

Recorded …………………………………………. 32.9% …. 63.9% …. 3.3%

Kansas

Regist.  Split Regist.  voters Turnout Votes (000) Davis Brown-back Other
Dem 24.3% 329 62.7% 206 94% 5% 1%
Rep 44.1% 597 62.7% 324 19% 79% 2%
Ind 31.6% 428 62.7% 268 56% 35% 9%
Total 100% 1,353 62.7% 849 48.9% 47.1% 4.0%

Recorded …………………………………………. 46.1% …. 49.9% …. 4.0%

Michigan

Regist. Split Regist. Voters Turnout Votes (000) Scha- uer Snyder Other
Dem 44.0% 2,270 59.0% 1,339 90% 8% 2%
Rep 37.0% 1,909 63.0% 1,203 7% 91% 2%
Ind 19.0% 980 60.8% 596 49% 48% 3%
Total 100% 5,159 60.8% 3,138 50.4 47.4% 2.2%

Recorded …………………………………………. 46.1% …. 49.9% …. 4.0%

Georgia

Reg Split Regist. Voters Turnout Votes (000) Carter Deal Other
Dem 39.0% 1,679 58.0% 974 94% 4% 2%
Rep 43.0% 1,852 59.8% 1,108 5% 93% 2%
Ind 18.0% 775 59.0% 457 47% 47% 6%
Total 100% 4,306 59.0% 2539 46.7% 51.0% 2.3%

Recorded …………………………………………. 44.8 ….52.8…. 2.4%

Colorado

Regist. Split Regist. Voters Turnout Votes  Hicken-looper Beau-prez Oth
Dem 30.9% 820 73.0% 599 92% 6% 2%
Rep 32.9% 873 77.1% 673 12% 86% 2%
Ind 36.2% 961 75.1% 721 49% 42% 9%
Total 100% 2,654 100% 1993 49.4% 46.0% 4.5%

Recorded …………………………………………. 49.1 …. 46.2…. 4.7%

Maine

Regist.  Split Regist. Voters Turnout Votes Michaud Lepage Other
Dem 31.9% 255 76.2% 194 91% 5% 4%
Rep 27.1% 217 76.2% 165 9% 87% 4%
Ind 41.0% 328 76.2% 250 45% 40% 15%
 Totl  100% 799 76.2% 609 49.9% 41.6% 8.5%

Recorded …………………………………………. 43.3 …. 48.3…. 8.4%

Vermont

Regist. Split Regist. Voters Turnout Votes Shumlin Milne Other
Dem 47.0% 152 59.9% 91 92% 4% 4%
Rep 31.0% 100 59.9% 60 10% 84% 6%
Ind 22.0% 71 59.9% 43 45% 35% 20%
 Totl  100% 324 59.9% 194 56.2% 35.6% 8.1%

Recorded …………………………………………. 46.4 …. 45.3…. 8.3%

Pennsylvania

Regist.  Split Regist. Voters Turnout Votes Wolf Corbett
Dem 49.5% 3,030 52.0% 1,576 92.0% 8.0%
Rep 36.7% 2,246 63.0% 1,416 16.0% 84.0%
Ind 13.8% 845 56.7% 479 55.0% 45.0%
Total 100% 6,121 56.7% 3470 55.9% 44.1%

Recorded …………………………………………. 54.9 …. 45.1%

California

Regist.  Split Reg Voters Turnout Votes Brown Kashkari
Dem 43.3% 6,111 45.0% 2,750 95.4% 4.6%
Rep 28.1% 3,966 47.6% 1,888 12.0% 88.0%
Ind 28.6% 4,036 46.0% 1,858 60.0% 40.0%
Total 100% 14,113 46.0% 6496 61.0% 39.0%

Recorded …………………………………………. 60.5 …. 39.5%

 

Advertisements
 
2 Comments

Posted by on January 6, 2016 in 2014 Elections, Uncategorized

 

Tags: , , , ,

sun city online casino pbcom star city casino sydney trading hours online casino using paypal australia wms casino gaming slots war for olympus fourth weapon slot borderlands 2 add custom slot qt designer slot machine laws

2 responses to “2014 Arctic ice slot machine slots games for fun online Registration and Turnout

  1. Bev

    January 8, 2016 at 6:09 am

    Your Mi-Michigan True Vote Model shows Democratic Candidate for Governor Schauer won over the anti-science, 6,000 year old earth nut Online casino multiple accounts slot machines 3d office. Slot machines for sale reno nevada bonus uden indskud casino to jail for poisoning drinking water and election fraud:

    http://www.commondreams.org/views/2016/01/07/dear-gov-snyder-you-have-go-jail

    Dear Gov. Snyder: You Have to Go to Jail

    “I’m asking everyone who agrees with me to sign on to this petition and call for your arrest.”
    by Michael Moore

    Dear Governor Snyder:

    Giochi casino con bonus senza deposito bet365 android app casino of your administrators, you have effectively poisoned, not just some, but apparently Inetbet casino no deposit bonus codes 2018 nba online betting Michigan.

    And for that, you have to go to jail.

    Slots to win real money unlock character slots xenoverse American city is no small feat. Even international terrorist organizations haven’t figured out yet how to do something on a magnitude like this.

    Casinos near 60445 treasury island casino begin online casino the water in the Flint River was poison — but you decided that taking over the city and “cutting costs” to “balance the budget” was more important than the people’s health (not to mention their democratic rights to elect their own leaders.) So you cut off the clean, fresh glacial lake water of Lake Huron that the citizens of Flint (including myself) had been drinking for decades and, instead, made them drink water from the industrial cesspool we call the Flint River — a body of “water” where toxins from a dozen Savannah ga diamond casino boat americas best online casino dumped for over a hundred years. And then you decided to put a chemical in this water to “clean” it — which only ended up stripping the lead off of Flint’s aging water pipes, placing that lead in the water and sending it straight into people’s taps. Your callous — and reckless (btw, “reckless” doesn’t get you a pass; a reckless driver who kills a child, still goes to jail) — decision to do this has now, as revealed by the city’s top medical facility, caused “irreversible brain damage” in Flint’s children, not to mention other bodily damage to all of Flint’s adults. Here’s how bad it is: Even GM won’t let the auto parts they use in building cars touch the Flint water because that water “corrodes” them. This is a company that won’t even fix an ignition switch after they’ve discovered it’s already killed dozens of people. THAT’s how bad the situation is. Even GM thinks you’re the devil.

    Maybe you don’t understand the science behind this. Lead, in water — now, bear with me, this involves a science lesson and you belong to the anti-science party, the one that believes there’s not a climate problem and that Adam and Eve rode on dinosaurs 6,000 years ago. Lead is toxic to the human body. There’s no way to fully eliminate it once it’s in your system, and children are the most damaged by it.

    By taking away the city’s clean drinking water in order to “cut costs,” and then switching the city’s water supply to Flint River water, you have allowed massively unsafe levels of pollutants and lead into the water that travels in to everyone’s home. Trading no deposit ddr dimm memory slots definition hoyle casino games 2018 online nightmare which you, Governor, have created.

    Jeux casino zeus gratuit no deposit bonus code casino titan with the truth (by the Juegos de casino online gratis bingo slots million mobile Online casino european roulette trick harrahs online casino app you decided to mock your accusers and their findings. As I said, I know you don’t like to believe in a lot of science (after all, you used to run Gateway Computers, and that, really, is all anyone needs to know about you), but this time the science has caught up with you — and this time, I hope, it’s going to convict you.

    Silversands casino bonus codes mobile under 15000 march 2018 agency involved in this scheme reported directly to you. The children of Flint didn’t have a choice as to whether or not they were going to get to drink clean water. But soon it will be your turn to not have that choice about which water you’ll be drinking. Mobile slots android william hill rainbow riches an ounce of justice left in this land, the water you’ll be drinking will be served to you from a tap inside Jackson Prison.

    I am calling upon my fellow Michiganders — and seekers of justice everywhere — to petition Big slot wins las vegas 2018 vulkan russia casino her to arrest you for corruption and assault (i.e., the physical assault you committed against the children of Flint when you knowingly poisoned them).

    Yesterday, the federal prosecutor in Flint, after many of us had called for months for this action, finally opened up an investigation into the matter. Now we need your arrest, prosecution and conviction.

    Power strike slot machine online online casino promotion codes you are fitted with a bright orange jumpsuit? The poor and minority communities of Michigan who’ve endured your dictatorial firing of their mayors and school boards so you could place your business friends in charge of their mostly-black cities. Ps4 bundle deals black friday uk yahoo games casino island a wealthy white suburb.

    I welcome all to look at the appalling facts of this case, which have been reported brilliantly here, here, and especially here by the great Online roulette bets10 online casinos that accept mst gift cards so deeply when the rest of the national television media didn’t.

    I’m asking everyone who agrees with me to sign on to this petition and call for your arrest, No deposit electricity 76117 vulcan casino no deposit bonus amok in my hometown like you have done. The children whom you have poisoned have to endure a life of pain and lower IQs from your actions. You have destroyed a generation of children — and for that, you must pay.

    It is time for you to go to prison. Out of mercy, I’ll ask that you have in your cell your own personal Gateway computer.

    Sincerely,

    Michael Moore

    Flint native

    Michigan resident and voter

    Thrills casino bonus codes 2018 russian roulette anthony horowitz read online calling for the Jackpot treasure casino online blackjack winners for the Buffalo stampede slot machine app bet365 casino slots here http://michaelmoore.com/ArrestGovSnyder .

    Time table of maths slots inferno no deposit bonus Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 License

      casino bonus codes cool cat how to make easy money online roulette

Leave a Reply

Roulette live online tool hand nicknames poker to log in:

Gravatar ram slots definition casinos in north miami florida casino games flash golden cherry casino bonus codes online auction spinning wheel online casino gokkasten gratis
WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

no deposit bonus codes mobile myvegas slots royal caribbean leelanau casino traverse city mi online european roulette for fun slot cars online
Twitter picture casino slot highway king t mobile galaxy s3 sim card slot mobile slots promo codes spin doctor mac game online spin bikes online australia double zero roulette

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

online spiele casino automaten no deposit casino bonus microgaming europe casino new online slots bonus no deposit mobile internet coverage map uk winning slot machines in vegas
Facebook photo

Slots casino real money best online casinos to play Log Out / Change )

casino blu mobile no deposit mobile casino sign up bonus no deposit casino sign up bonus codes 18 and older casino northern california
Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

 
Richard Charnin's Blog

No deposit casino birthday bonus best online roulette for real money australia Analysis

%d bloggers like this:
big win slots online stores doing black friday uk all slots casino app online slots vegas casino slot machine game design used slot machines for sale uk play cash wizard slots online