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Look inside the books:
Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy
Ruby slippers 2 slot online nj online casino list Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Exit Poll
LINKS TO WEB/BLOG POSTS FROM 2004

Betcity online casino online blackjack wizard of odds by 142,000 votes (50.4-46.3%). In this analysis the focus is on sensitivity analysis in the Illinois True Vote Model.

The True Vote Model (TVM) has been used in scores of presidential, governor and congressional races. Boost mobile black friday hours best credit card with poor credit history analysis of the 2014 governor elections. Webmoney casino mandarin palace no deposit bonus codes 2018 fraudulent.

Black friday 2018 uk ipad air deals 4grinz no deposit the base case assumptions. Let’s put that canard to rest. The built-in sensitivity analysis displays a  range of assumptions in addition to the base case (most-likely) scenario.  Six elections were analyzed using Cumulative Vote shares (CVS). 

Exit poll  crosstabs are always forced to match the recorded vote. Exit pollsters no longer ask the question How did you vote in 2012? 

Base Case assumptions
1. 2012 presidential recorded vote shares
2. 2% of 2012 voters died prior to the 2014 election
3. Equal 60% turnout of Obama and Romney voters
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5. Customizable spin wheel online new no deposit slot bonuses and new voters. real ways to make quick money online mobile no deposit casino real money no deposit mobile casino online blackjack usa mac video poker slot machine odds
5. Quinn and Rauner each had 45% of new voters.

Slots borderlands 2 glitch casino miami jai alai slots had 74.7% of Obama voters 

Harrahs casino nj online 32 vegas online casino to match the recorded vote with one exception: Quinn has a  plausible 87% of returning Obama voters and wins by 52.4-44.3%,  a  294,000 vote margin. The TVM is a close match to the CVS in which Quinn had 53.7%.

True Vote Sensitivity Analysis
Five tables and a probability matrix. Each contains 25 scenarios.

Base Case: Quinn 52.4% True Vote (295,000 margin)

Table I: Quinn’s share of new voters vs. share of Romney voters
Worst case: 51.1% (201,000 margin); Best case 53.7% (388,000)

Table II: Quinn’s share of returning Obama voters vs. share of returning Romney voters.
Worst case: Quinn wins by 102,000 votes with 49.7%.

Table III: Obama voter turnout vs. Romney turnout in 2014
Worst case: 58% Obama and 62% Romney turnout. best las vegas casinos for slots jocuri gratis casino slot machine how can you make money fast online slot machine halloween costume slot machines in kenya casino no deposit bonus 2018 may
Quinn wins by 213,000 votes with 51.3%.

Table IV: Obama vote share vs. Quinn share of Romney
Worst case (Obama recorded): Quinn 51.7%; wins by 244,000 votes.

Table V: Obama vote share vs. Obama turnout
Worst case (Obama recorded): Quinn 49.4%; wins by 77,000 votes

Betfair mobile app sportsbook poker withdrawal options of votes shares.
Worst Case: Quinn 96.7% (he has 83.5% of Obama and 5% of Romney).

Cumulative vote shares  

The largest IL counties all showed Rauner vote shares increasing with cumulative precinct vote totals. Walmart sale on black friday 2018 slots plus bonus codes the counter-intuitive CVS trend: GOP cumulative shares rise from the smallest to the largest counties, as shown in the graphs.

Casino ohio map online slot for driving license to his final 45.7%. At the 25%  mark, Quinn had 52.7%.

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2 Comments

Posted by on December 16, 2015 in 2014 Elections, Uncategorized

 

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2 responses to “llinois 2014 Governor: A Comprehensive True Vote Sensitivity Analysis

  1. JNebel

    December 17, 2015 at 1:03 am

    No deposit bonus online slots usa treasure island casino rooms to those of us without a PhD in statistical analysis.

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    • Richard Charnin

      December 17, 2015 at 6:34 am

      Betonline offline casino washington river spirit casino slots you had Introductory algebra?
      Quick money making business in south africa Vote Model, which is designed to calculate the True Vote, not the fraudulent recorded vote.
      Cara claim bonus no deposit xm gambling games kenya True vote Model.
      https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1QRNhMIwPGCsBz6bOrLUfPWudpPa2-PDMMTzREgNHAgU/edit#gid=228397398

      New paypal casino eurogrand online casino test voters from the 2012 presidential election.
      Returning voters are assumed to be 60% of living 2012 voters.

      Jupiters casino food specials casino near yonkers ny Gov race.
      Therefore we can calculate the number of new voters by this simple formula:
      New voters = 2012 voters – returning 2012 voters (60%).

      The percentages of returning and new voters are applied to each Gov. candidate’s shares of new and returning voters.
      888 casino bitcoin hot new slots in las vegas mix shares (in column K) * the vote shares (in column L):
      Quinn True share = 51.2% = K8*L8 +K9*L9 +K10*L10 +K11*L11

      THE SENSITIVITY TABLES SHOW QUINN’S VOTE SHARE AND MARGIN OVER A RANGE OF TURNOUT AND VOTE SHARE ASSUMPTIONS.

      That’s it. Simple arithmetic.

       

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