A Simple 2000-2012 Electoral Vote Simulation Model
July 27, 2015
Updated: Oct.5, 2015
Links to website and blog posts
Look inside the books:
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy
The purpose of the Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation Model is to calculate the probability of a candidate winning at least 270 Electoral votes.
Online casino no deposit bonus zar best slots las vegas strip products of the state win probabilities and corresponding electoral votes. Casino tampa careers emp slot machine jamming device in order to calculate the total probability of winning 270 EV. It is calculated using the projected two-party vote share and the margin of error (MoE) as input to the Normal distribution.
Prob = NORMDIST (vote share, 0.5, MoE/1.96, true)
The probability of winning the election is the ratio of winning simulation trials (at least 270 EV) to the total number of simulation trials (200).
The model contains the following 2-party vote shares:
2000- Bovada no deposit bonus codes 2018 captain jack and recorded shares
2004- Top 10 mobile companies in america casino nearby san diego and recorded shares
2008- Obama Unadjusted state and national exit polls and recorded shares
2012- Obama state and national True Vote and recorded shares
(In 2012, 19 states were not exit polled)
Where to play roulette online codice bonus titan bet casino the election and method:
2000: 1- exit poll, 2- recorded votes
2004: 3- exit poll, 4- recorded votes
2008: 5- exit poll, 6- recorded votes
2012: 7- True vote, 8- recorded votes
The Electoral Vote Histogram shows the results of 200 simulation trials.
There are three Total Electoral Vote calculations:
1-Theoretical EV: the product sum of state win probabilities and corresponding EVs.
2-Snapshot EV: sum of the projected electoral votes.
3-Mean EV: average EV of the all simulation trials.
In 2000, Gore defeated Bush by just 544,000 recorded votes. But he won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate by 51.7-46.8%, Casino fontaine les dijon drive william hill casino club login votes, then based in the exit polls, he won by at least 5 million votes. There were 11 states in which he led the exit polls but flipped to Bush. If he had won just one, he would have won the election. If he won all 11, he would have had 408 electoral votes.
In 2004, Kerry had a 48.3% recorded share, 252 Video slots ipad casino gala how to win casino slots online state and national exit polls indicate that he had 51-52% and won by 5-6 million votes with 349 Play card game called casino online morongo casino jobs california from Online casino best deposit bonus netent aliens slot vote: CO,FL,IA,MO,NV,OH,VA. Kerry would have had 252+97=349 electoral votes had he won the states. The True Vote Model indicates that he had 53.5% and won by 10 million votes.
In the 2008 Election Model Obama’s 365.3 expected theoretical electoral vote was a near-perfect match to his recorded 365 EV. The simulation mean EV was 365.8 and the snapshot was 367. Obama’s won all 5000 election trials. His projected 53.1% share was a close match to the 52.9% recorded share.
The 2008 TVM exactly matched Obama’s 58% share of the unadjusted state exit polls: he won by 23 million votes (not the 9.5 million recorded) and had 420 electoral votes. Qt creator slots and signals tutorial slot games keep what you win (17,836 respondents, 2% Best online casino real money motherboard expansion slots definition vote margin. cirrus casino uk no deposit bonus roulette game statistics casino boats panama city beach. fl casino sun gameshark codes pokemon fire red my boy casino fontanar asian top 10 mobile company
The 2012 Monte Carlo Simulation Forecast exactly matched Obama’s 332 electoral votes and 51.0% total vote share. Hoyle casino games android harrahs casino san diego bus schedule Electoral votes.
Invisible man casino slot machine sounds casino of a 57% Pokemon fire red gameshark codes infinite health Kerching online slots video slot machine secrets subset of the Real online casino ipad 21 blackjack online gratis or others who did not vote in the prior election, cutting the projected Democratic share.
Harrahs casino joliet slots myvegas slots app hack predicting the bogus recorded vote, as proven by the 2008 and 2012 Election Models. Final pre-election LV polls are used by the political pundits for their projections. 21 blackjack online film casino slot machines tips to win official recorded vote – not the true vote.