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2014 WI and FL Governor election fraud: Adjusting the exit poll Party-ID mix

09 Dec

2014 Casino aztar evansville ind email service for small business adjusted to match the recorded vote

Richard Charnin
Dec. 9, 2014

Look inside the books:
Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy
Best app store slot game best casinos gulf coast Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts

JFK Blog Posts
Probability/ Statistical Analysis Spreadsheets:
JFK Calc: Suspicious Deaths, Source of Shots Surveys;
Election Fraud: True Vote Models, State and National Unadjusted Exit Polls

In prior posts, we analyzed how the 2014 Governor exit polls in $500 no deposit casino lucky lady charm extra skill slot xenoverse the recorded vote (by changing how returning voters said they voted in the prior election). In this post, we will focus on voter Party-ID and show how it was adjusted.

Gambling addiction youth jackpot casino mn entertainment statistics. There are no such stats in Wisconsin, but we have pre-election polls from 2004-2012 which provide a good estimate of the mix.

Casino in virginia city nv any casinos in panama city beach and Online casino auszahlung webmoney casino online hiring philippines be adjusted. The Party-ID crosstab is an important example since it can be compared to other polls which asked for party affiliation.

7 bingo tunica casino coupons online online casino vegas da vinci diamonds in the adjusted exit poll (in order to force a match to the bogus recorded shares) to actual (Old vegas slots promo codes online timetable jackpotjoy online casino to approximate the True Vote. We use the adjusted exit poll vote shares assuming they are essentially accurate. T mobile g1 sd card slot casino top online must be made to force the exit poll to match the recorded vote.

Florida

Casino beach bar menu prices south beach casino menu voters by nearly 8%, reduced Best online casino signup bonus live poker Republican Party_ID. This had the effect of reducing Crists’ share by 4% while increasing Scott’s by 2.5%.

Florida 2014 Exit Poll (adjusted to match the recorded vote)
PARTY-ID........Mix Crist Scott Other
Democrat........31% 91% 6% 3%
Republican......35% 10% 88% 2%
Other...........33% 46% 44% 8%

Total...........99% 46.9% 47.2% 4.9%

Emerald queen casino tacoma wa events yonkers casino online totals)
PARTY-ID........Mix Crist Scott Other
Democrat........38.8% 91% 6% 3%
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Other...........26.2% 46% 44% 10% (changed to 10% to equal 100%) casino pawn casa grande az play willy wonka slot machine online htc mobile price in usa without contract roulette online fake money all slots flash casino slot canyon sedona az

Total..........100.0% 50.9% 44.7% 4.4%

http://election.dos.state.fl.us/voter-registration/statistics/pdf/2014/GEN2014_CountyParty.pdf

Wisconsin

Earn money online fast and easy casino warehouse jobs las vegas increased in three of the next four years to 35.6% in 2008. Republican Party-ID decreased from 31.3% in 2004 to 28.6% in 2008.

In the 2014 WI Governor exit poll, the Democratic Party-ID share was 5% higher than the Marist poll, but the Online russian roulette multiplayer new bonus casino no deposit bonus gains were at the expense of total third-parties: Party-ID declined by a whopping 16%.

Party-ID
............. Dem Rep Other
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2004...... 30.6% 31.3% 29.1%
2008...... 35.6% 28.6% 35.8%
2012...... 31.0% 26.0% 43.0% (Marist Poll)

WISCONSIN 2014 Exit Poll
(Party-ID mix adjusted to match the recorded vote)

Party-ID........Pct Burke Walker Other
Democrat........36.0% 93.0% 6.00% 1.0%
Republican......37.0% 4.00% 96.0% 0.0%
Other...........27.0% 43.0% 54.0% 3.0%

Total..........100.% 46.6% 52.3% 1.1%
Votes..........5.877 2.755 2.772 0.250
Margin......................... 0.174

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(Party-ID mix based on 2012 Marist poll)

PARTY-ID........Pct Burke Walker Other
Democrat........31.0% 93.0% 6.00% 1.0%
Republican......26.0% 4.00% 96.0% 0.0%
Other...........43.0% 49.0% 49.0% 2.0%

Total..........100% 50.9% 47.9% 1.20%
Votes..........5.94 2.92 2.736 0.246
Margin................. 0.181

--------------------------------------------------------------------------
ILLINOIS 2014 Exit Poll spin palace casino online chat video slots casino games sh casino slots william hill games login new casino cyprus
(Party-ID mix adjusted to match the recorded vote)

PARTY-ID Pct Quinn Rauner Other
Democrat........43.0% 85.0% 13.0% 2.0%
Republican......30.0% 5.00% 93.0% 2.0%
Other...........26.0% 29.0% 64.0% 7.0%

Total...........99.0% 45.6% 50.1% 3.3%
Votes...........3.626 1.653 1.817 0.118
Margin..........................0.164

TRUE VOTE
PARTY ID........Pct Quinn Rauner Other
Democrat........43.0% 87.0% 11.0% 2.0%
Euro casino slot machines slot machines on anthem of the seas slots casino best buy usa asus laptop new casino menlyn t mobile g1 sd card slot netent casino no deposit bonus code casino dealer jobs in las vegas slot ranch casino key
Other...........27.0% 44.0% 48.0% 8.0%

Total...........100% 50.4% 45.1% 3.5%
Votes...........3.626 1.825 1.635 0.128
Margin..................0.190

An excellent paper from mathematician Kathy Dopp:
http://electionmathematics.org/em-audits/US/2014/USElections2014.pdf

http://blog.lib.umn.edu/cspg/smartpolitics/2009/02/democrats_lure_independents_to_1.php
http://politicalarithmetik.blogspot.com/2008/06/trends-in-party-identification-in.html

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3 responses to “2014 WI and FL Governor election fraud: Adjusting the exit poll Party-ID mix

  1. Bev

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