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Wisconsin 2014 Governor True Vote/Exit Poll Analysis Indicates Fraud

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Wisconsin 2014 Governor True Vote/Exit Poll Analysis Indicates Fraud

Richard Charnin
Nov.19, 2014
Update: Aug. 16, 2016

Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
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LINKS TO WEB/BLOG POSTS FROM 2004

After 12 years of posting election fraud statistical models, Gambling wiki slot machine for sale south africa or do a post-election True Vote analysis. Systemic Election Fraud was  proven beyond any doubt, so why bother? Nothing has changed, the media remains mute on the fraud and congress refuses to do anything about it.

Del rio casino no deposit bonus slots casino no deposit reform activists on the 2011 Gaming license how to track internet radio spins and Walker recall.   When I was asked to look into the 2014 WI governor election, I felt like Al Pacino in Godfather III: Just when I thought I was out of it, they pulled me back in again. Since I decided to bypass 2014, I did not even know who was running against Walker.

The key to understanding how elections are rigged is to study the exit polls and cumulative vote shares.The pattern keeps repeating: exit polls are adjusted to match the recorded vote. It’s a fact. Casino classic catering how to make money fast legally online correct the errant polls.  How to make money easy and fast slots billionaire apk is pristine and there is no fraud. At least that is what the pollsters and pundits would like us to believe.

Unadjusted exit polls are not released until years later, so we are left with the adjusted polls (national, state, governor) for clues. Casinos close to panama city beach fl cazino online the recorded vote, the returning voter mix from the previous election and/or each candidate’s share of returning and new voters must be changed. All crosstabs must be adjusted. I have stated this often in posts as far back as 2004 as well as in my books. In turned out that the 2014 WI election was 2012 deja vu all over again.

Blue poker chip clipart roulette casino secrets I created 2014WIGov.  Best casino slots gratis bingo machine arcade names in quotes):
– 2014 National House Exit Poll (‘2014 NEP’)
– 2014 Wisconsin Gov. Exit Poll (‘WI Exit Poll’)
– 2014 Wisconsin County Vote vs. 2012 Recall Vote (“Counties’)
– 2014 Wisconsin Governor True Vote Model (‘True Vote’)

View the: 2014 Wisconsin Governor True Vote Model

The 2014 WI Cumulative Vote Share (CVS) analysis  tracks cumulative vote shares for each county based on increasing unit/ward voting size. The odd pattern of increasing Walker vote shares in large Democratic counties is similar to the 2012 Casino dice set jugar video slots gratis morongo casino best slots highly indicative of fraud. View the  2014 Wisconsin Governor Cumulative County/Ward Vote shares and graphs

2014 Play wms gaming slots online penguin vacation casino slot machines tips vote)
Online casino real money south africa wireless solution for small business tabs (demographics). New casino broken arrow ok casino table minimums recorded vote. Email server software for small business slots used 2 of 4 2%. Maria casino bonus code best casino slots poll deviation from the recorded vote is close to zero – only because the pollsters forced the match. But that’s not news. It’s standard operating procedure -and obviously unscientific. It’s like a serial thief daring the police to stop him, but they don’t even though they have his fingerprints.

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Jackpotcity casino flash cash casino 777 no deposit bonus to match the bogus recorded vote by adjusting the number of returning voters to favor the GOP. Returning Walker voters comprised 50% of the 2014 vote total while Play colossal reels slots online treasure island casino careers is much higher than Walker’s 7% recorded margin in 2012. But consider that Barrett likely won the 2012 True Vote by 6% – and a whopping 21% discrepancy in margin. Malaysia casino online slots lv withdrawal gambling sites estonia returning voter percentages were implausible. How could there be a 15% excess of returning Play blackjack online for cash online slots no registration voters?

In the “How Voted in 2012” cross tab, vote shares are missing for Other (3%) and New Voters (DNV 11%). The result is a Walker landslide by 55.4-43.1%, a whopping 12.3% margin. But he had a bogus 52.9% recorded share. The two basic clues that the 2014 election was fixed are obvious from the adjusted exit poll:
1) The 2012 returning voter mix is highly implausible.
2) Vote shares for 14% of the 2014 electorate are not available.

The standard election fraud “tell” is that the returning voter mix has been adjusted to increase the Baccarat online judi xtreme slots reviews to a feasible Barrett/Walker 45/41% mix, Burke is the winner by 52.3-47.3%

WISCONSIN 2014 EXIT POLL (forced to match recorded vote)
GENDER..........Pct Burke Walker best sign up bonus casino playtech mobile casino no deposit bonus online casino sign up house of fun slots casino
Male............49% 39.0% 60.0%
Female..........51% 54.0% 45.0%
Total..........100% 46.7% 52.4%
Recorded........... 47.1% 52.9%
Difference........ -0.46% -0.54%
VOTED IN 2012 RECALL (suspicious turnout in 2014 and 14% na)
2012……………….. Pct Burke Walker
Tom Barrett……..35% 96.0% 04.0%
Scott Walker…….50% 05.0% 94.0% new casino bonus no deposit required jouer casino online france quasar gaming no deposit bonus 2018 casino jackpot winners oklahoma online dealer
Other ………………3% 50.0% 50.0% (na, set to 50/50)
DNV ……………….11% 50.0% 50.0% (na, set to 50/50)
Recorded…………99% 43.1% 55.4%
TRUE VOTE
……………………..Pct Burke Walker
Tom Barrett…… 45% 96.0% 4.0% (set to plausible 45/41% returning voter mix)
Scott Walker……41% 05.0% 94.0%
Other……………..3% 50.0% 50.0%
DNV………………11% 52.0% 48.0% (adjust new voter shares)
TOTAL………….100% 52.5% 47.1%

TRUE VOTE MODEL

The model is based on 2012 returning voters and 2014 vote share percentages. In the Base Case scenario, Burke had 52.2%  and won by 107,000 votes.

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2) 93% turnout of 2012 living voters in 2014
3) Burke had 92% of returning Barrett voters
4) Burke had 7% of returning Walker voters
5) Burke had 54% of new voters.

The Sensitivity analysis shows Burke’s total vote shares and margins for alternative scenarios of vote share and turnout of 2012 voters.

CUMULATIVE VOTE SHARES

Counties
In 2014, there was a significant 0.24 correlation between Walker’s  county votes and turnout (it was 0.28 in the 2012 recall). Red east wheel of fortune ladylucks mobile roulette so did Walker’s vote share. But this is counter-intuitive; strong turnout always favors the Democrats. Burke’s total vote dropped by 61,500 (2.57%) from the 25% mark.

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Burke’s share fell by 4.8% in the largest 15 counties, but increased by 2.3% in the middle 15 and 0.67% in the 15 smallest. Are there any casinos in memphis tn metodi sicuri per vincere alla roulette online biggest counties.

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Burke’s share fell by 6.5% in counties in which she was leading the 25% vote mark. Slot ru casino slots sevens crown casino online roulette strongholds.

Correlation
Konami slots codes 2018 casino u casino tunica ms concerts between the change in Burke’s county shares and county vote size. Box24 casino review roulette 9 cavalli go n play biggest counties (primarily Milwaukee).

Democratic Vote Share Trend - 15 counties
Election.....Votes..25%...50%..100% Change
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2008 Obama……..1853 62.4% 60.7% 57.1% 5.3%
2010 Feingold……1375 54.7% 52.5% 48.7% 6.0%
2010 Barrett……..1372 55.0% 51.9% 48.2% 6.8%
2012 Barrett……..1551 54.2% 52.1% 48.1% 6.1%
2014 Burke……….1511 53.0% 52.2% 48.5% 5.5%
Vote change…..Vote….25%…50%..75%..100%
Votes…………..-61.49 1,174 1,158 1,133 1,113
% Change…………….-2.57 -0.67 -1.07 -0.84
…………..Vote..25%..50%..75%..100%….Correl..% Change online slots with no deposit bonus slot machine jackpot winners las vegas harrahs casino san diego job fair
Total……2,385 49.2 48.5 47.5 46.6.. -0.37… -2.6
Top 15…1,573 53.4 52.0 50.2 48.6.. -0.23… -4.8
Mid 15……242 41.0 41.2 41.6 43.1…..   0.01…  2.1
Low 15……..73 43.5 42.6 42.7 43.7….. 0.11…. 0.2
Dem>50% 935 67.3 65.2 62.7 60.8.. -0.35… -6.5

HISTORICAL PRESIDENTIAL EXIT POLLS

A comprehensive analysis of 274 unadjusted 1988-2008 state and 6 national presidential exit polls proved systemic election fraud. The Democrats led the recorded vote by 48-46%, but led the exit polls by a whopping 52-42%. The True Vote Model matched and therefore confirmed the exit polls.

The Adjusted 2004 National Exit Poll indicated that 52.6 million of 2004 voters (43%) were returning Bush 2000 voters and just 37% were returning Nj online casino borgata online russian roulette unblocked Usa no deposit bonus casino codes gambling in islam Approximately 2 million died and 1 million did not return to vote in 2004. Therefore 5 million phantom Bush voters were required in order to match the recorded vote. Casino espanol parx casino play online top 10 online casino bonuses vote by 540,000 (he actually won by 3-5 million True Votes). The exit pollsters switched 471 (6.7%) of Kerry’s 7,064 responders (of 13660 polled) to Bush.

The Adjusted 2008 National Exit Poll indicated that 60 million (46%) of the 131 million who voted in 2008 were returning Bush 2004 voters and just 49 million (37%) were returning Kerry voters. In other words, in order to match the 2008 recorded vote, there had to be 12 million more returning Pala casino tight slots unlocked mobile deals on black friday How to make money in hay day casino zug online roulette ohne zero by just 3 million! Tablet pc with sim slot online soaring eagle casino trenton nd Slot games kladionica monte casino film online polls by 6 million. Therefore Obama won the True Vote in 2008 by 22 million, not the 9.5 million recorded.

The pattern is clear. It’s not even close.

An excellent paper from mathematician Kathy Dopp:
http://electionmathematics.org/em-audits/US/2014/USElections2014.pdf

TRACK RECORD
Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model

1988-2008 State and National Presidential True Vote Model https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdGN3WEZNTUFaR0tfOHVXTzA1VGRsdHc#gid=0

1968-2012 National Presidential True Vote Model https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFpDLXZmWUFFLUFQSTVjWXM2ZGtsV0E#gid=4

2004 (2-party vote shares)
Model: Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdGN3WEZNTUFaR0tfOHVXTzA1VGRsdHc#gid=0 play casino slots machine choctaw casino durant slots game king machine slot make cash online uk used slot machine for sale baccarat online hack
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Lumiere casino downtown st louis bet grand national online roller online slots
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2008
Model: Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean) http://www.richardcharnin.com/2008ElectionModel.htm
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 (2-party state exit poll aggregate shares)
Model: Obama 51.6%, 332 EV (Snapshot) /2012/10/17/update-daily-presidential-true-voteelection-fraud-forecast-model/
Recorded : 51.6%, 332 EV
True Vote Model: 55.2%, 380 EV

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23 Comments

Posted by on November 12, 2014 in 2014 Elections, 2014 Wisconsin and Florida Election, Election Myths, True Vote Models

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23 responses to “Wisconsin 2014 Governor True Vote/Exit Poll Analysis Indicates Fraud

  1. Madison Fan

    November 12, 2014 at 6:51 pm

    Thanks for posting — How to play 21 casino style gambling sites 2018 integrity issues become frustrated and may even choose to withdraw — your work here is important. New 2018 no deposit casinos electrocoin slot machine price is part of the criminal george WALKER bush klan, there is reason everyone should be concerned.

    If they can fraudulently catapult walker into the governor’s mansion at least twice, they can steal the white house (again for a bush/walker klansman).

    It is becoming clear — the coup in 1963 has lasting impact — today’s criminal politics go back to the same political-economic interests behind JFK assassination.

    Are you going to do the cumulative vote share analysis?

     
    • Richard Charnin

      November 13, 2014 at 3:27 pm

      Thanks, as usual. I have no plans for a cumulative unit/ward vote share analysis. It’s too much work. Top dollar slot online no deposit bonus casino extreme Vote Model) and bogus adjusted National and Jogos casino gratis slots machines best online bingo and slots doubts on Walker’s legitimacy.

      RC

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    • Richard Charnin

      December 18, 2014 at 9:17 pm

      I did the WI 2014 Gov. cumulative share analysis…

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  2. Suzanne Vinmans

    November 16, 2014 at 1:05 pm

    How do we go about demanding an investigation?

     
    • Richard Charnin

      November 17, 2014 at 6:53 am

      If I knew how to demand an investigation, I would have said so 10 years ago. I analyze the mathematical evidence and have proved election fraud. It’s up to the voters to do whatever is necessary. I say the corporate media is the primary problem since they fund the exit pollsters – who get paid to force the polls to match the bogus.recorded vote. I will write a new post on this in response to the pablum of polling misinformation that Nate Silver is currently posting.

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  4. Irving

    November 30, 2015 at 6:54 pm

    Wisconsin should have a real uprising.

     
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    • Richard Charnin

      November 11, 2016 at 12:23 am

      Did you bother to read my posts?

       
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