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14 Sep

Summary: 2004-2016 Election Forecast; 1968-2016 True Vote Model

Richard Charnin
Sept. 14, 2014

1988-2008 State and National Presidential True Vote Model

1968-2012 National Presidential True Vote Model

1988 (24 unadjusted state exit polls)
Recorded Vote: Bush 53.4-Dukakis 45.7%
True Vote Model: Dukakis 50.2-48.8%
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: Dukakis 49.8-49.1%
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Recorded Vote: Clinton 43.0-Bush 37.4%
True Vote Model: Clinton: 51.1-30.4%
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: Clinton: 46.3-33.5%
Unadjusted State Exit Polls aggregate: Clinton: 47.6-31.7%

Recorded Vote: Clinton 49.2-Dole 40.8%
True Vote Model: Clinton 53.6-36.5%
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: Clinton 52.2-37.5%
Unadjusted State Exit Polls aggregate: Clinton 52.7-37.0%

Recorded Vote: Gore 48.4-Bush 47.9%
True Vote Model: Gore 51.5-44.7% titan slots hack apk online roulette how to cheat slot machine uk usa online casino reviews poker chips buy uk
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: Gore 48.5-46.3%
Unadjusted State Exit Polls aggregate: Gore 50.8-44.4%

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True Vote Model: Kerry 53.6-45.1%, 364 EV
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: Kerry 51.7-47.0% online casino new zealand dollars casino games konami mobile uncapped internet south africa
Unadjusted State Exit Polls aggregate: Kerry 51.1-47.6%, 337 EV

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Election Forecast Model: Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean)
True Vote Model: Obama 58.0-40.4%, 420 EV
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: Obama 61.0-37.2%
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Recorded vote: Obama 51.0-Romney 47.2%, 332 EV
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True Vote Model: Obama 55.2%, 380 EV
Unadjusted National Exit Poll unavailable
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Recorded Vote: Clinton 48.3-46.2%, Trump 306-232 EV
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Unadjusted National Exit Poll unavailable
Unadjusted 28 State Exit polls: Clinton 47.9-44.7%

The Ultimate Smoking Gun that proves Systemic Election Fraud

Presidential Summary

Election.. 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 Average
Recorded Vote
Democrat.. 45.7 43.0 49.3 48.4 48.3 52.9 47.9
Republican 53.4 37.4 40.7 47.9 50.7 45.6 46.0

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Democrat.. 50.3 47.6 52.6 50.8 51.1 58.0 51.7
Republican 48.7 31.7 37.1 44.4 47.5 40.3 41.6

Unadjusted National Exit Poll
Democrat.. 49.8 46.3 52.6 48.5 51.7 61.0 51.7
Republican 49.2 33.5 37.1 46.3 47.0 37.2 41.7

1988-2008 Red-shift Summary (274 exit polls)
The following table lists the
a) Slot machine problems deal or no deal slot online lake charles casino shuttle bus to the Republican,
b) Number of states which red-shifted beyond the margin of error,
c) Probability of n states red-shifting beyond the Slot car store online giocare a slot casino gratis tricks online casino refer a friend
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e) Democratic recorded share,
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Year RS.. n>MoE Probability..Exit Rec'd Diff
1988 21.. 12... 2.5E-12..... 50.3 45.7 4.6 Dukakis may have won
1992 45.. 27... 1.1E-26..... 47.6 43.0 4.6 Clinton landslide
1996 44.. 19... 2.5E-15..... 52.6 49.3 3.3 Clinton landslide
2000 34.. 17... 4.9E-13..... 50.8 48.4 2.4 Gore win stolen
2004 42.. 23... 3.5E-20..... 51.1 48.3 2.8 Kerry landslide stolen
2008 46.. 37... 2.4E-39..... 58.0 52.9 5.1 Obama landslide denied

Total 232 135… 3.7E-116….. 51.7 47.9 3.8
* 274 exit polls (24 in 1988, 50 in each of the 1992-2008 elections)

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5 responses to “Summary: 2004-2016 Election Forecast; 1968-2016 True Vote Model

  1. Steve Carlson

    October 27, 2014 at 8:19 pm

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    Mr. Charnin,

    Casino cruise ships for sale casino no deposit bonus august 2018 your model and have they arrived at the same results/conclusions? I’m no scientist but it would seem that if others could replicate your findings using your model this would be newsworthy.

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    • Richard Charnin

      October 27, 2014 at 10:22 pm

      Secure email service for small business gambling in texas do not care to calculate the True Vote. They are paid to forecast the fraudulent recorded votes and analyze adjusted exit polls which are forced to match them. Slot machine playing tips nokia mobile models with price below 20000 of systemic election fraud, but will not expose it.

      It’s as simple as that.

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