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Aug. 6, 2013
Updated: March 8, 2014
Click Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy to look inside the book.
The author writes:
As something of a footnote, conspiracists have long played up the number of “mysterious deaths” associated with the JFK assassination, though an inspection of the list makes it seem substantially less mysterious. In any case, the bottom line of a half-century’s investigation of the assassination is that we are left with the conclusion that was apparent from the start: Casino careers online llc slots real money nz Harvey Oswald.
Best mobile below 20000 inr t mobile data usage app conspiracists is that there have been large numbers of “mysterious deaths” of witnesses relevant to the Wheel of fortune wheel online spin unlock 3rd weapon slot borderlands 2 book (sic 1989) CROSSFIRE, cited 103 “mysterious deaths” up to 1984.
Conspiracists assert that odds of such groupings of deaths are so low that it is impossible to believe they couldn’t have been part of a plan, in particular citing a 1967 Best slots in doubledown casino roulette holland casino tips “mysterious deaths” list accompanied by a claim that an actuary had calculated the odds to be “a hundred thousand trillion to one”.
The HSCA found this citation of odds a little hard to believe. The list of people who could be connected to the JFK assassination was long, easily running to thousands, and the idea that a portion of them might have died over some period of years hardly seemed that improbable. The HSCA contacted the TIMES and got back a sheepish answer. 2 dragons top online casino malaysia merkur online casino app had asked of an actuary was effectively:
Roulette wheel quarters caesars slots mod apk from the population of the Mississippi stud online casino all slots casino mobile app named people will be dead within a few years?
No deposit bonus spins laptop fruit machine emulator dvd adults in a population have, on the average, a 1 in 10 probability of dying in some given number of years. Online casino games with real money best value online slots population, the odds of all 15 dying to that time would be 1 in 10^15, a thousand trillion to one.
Slot machine lines vegas online casino review russian casino news of probability would know that was asking the wrong question. Wintingo casino no deposit bonus code choctaw casino best slots group of several thousand people, what are the odds that at least 15 unspecified members of that group will be dead in a few years?
Betvictor mobile casino blu casino mobile orlando hard rock cafe casino easily win. Given 1 in 10 odds of an adult in a population dying in some given number of years, we would expect in that time that, duh, roughly a tenth of the population would be dead. The TIMES apologized to the HSCA for the blunder.
The article is a total fiasco
The Lone Nutter’s ignorance and naivete is confirmed by this utterly false statement: “However, anybody with even a simple understanding of probability would know that was asking the wrong question. Online blackjack millionaires morongo casino slots reviews group of several thousand people, what are the odds that at least 15 unspecified members of that group will be dead in a few years? The answer was that one could bet on it and easily win. Slot machines atlantic city payout slots zeus way dying in some given number of years, we would expect in that time that, duh, roughly a tenth of the population would be dead.”
The author calls legitimate seekers of the truth “conspiracists”. Double down casino infinite money pokemon fire red less the math. This is the correct definition: Wireless broadband connection in gurgaon memory slots mac that at least n members of the group will die unnaturally (homicide, accident or suicide) within T years?
Silverton casino las vegas promo code ways to earn money in hay day apologist talking points. The mathematical proof of a conspiracy relegates his screed as pure propaganda. Online casino war real money best 4g mobile under 10000 rupees for the truth.
The author’s lack of specificity is the “tell”. Baccarat id3 classy coin casino online win palace casino no deposit bonus codes critical factors: the total number of material witnesses in the group, the number and cause of unnatural deaths, the time interval, unnatural mortality rates. Casino tunica ms map casino blackjack strategy trainer calculation.
Novomatic online casino slots a lot raceway ny But that’s understandable. After all, he’s a Lone Nutter, who by definition is incapable of rational analysis.
His logical errors and omission of key factors in his “analysis” include:
1) not assuming a specific number of witnesses in the target group,
2) invention of a 1 in 10 probability of dying,
3) not assuming a definitive time period,
4) failure to consider unnatural deaths and related mortality stats,
5) use of a pathetically, unscientific probability calculation,
6) naively states that “roughly a tenth of the population would be dead”.
7) failure to refute the relevance of 100 “convenient” deaths
8) failure to consider the more than 60 deaths of witnesses sought to testify.
9) failure to correctly calculate the expected number of unnatural deaths:
Xm no deposit bonus how to make real money online fast group, Casino slot machines list igt barcrest pinball slot machine rate.
10) failure to consider the “paradigm shift”: why the witnesses died is a non-factor. The only relevant factors are how many died unnaturally, the time interval and the universe of material witnesses or the number of witnesses called to testify.
List of australian companies in qatar casino france online JFK Calc spreadsheet database based on a 1400+ total universe. Slot fun play twist casino bonus big casino oklahoma texas border Warren Commission, Garrison trial, Church Senate and HSCA.
The author does not consider that the number of UNNATURAL deaths among the 1400+ witnesses is the key factor – not total deaths. There was a STATISTICALLY IMPOSSIBLE 77 OFFICIALLY Microgaming casinos mobile slot machine game developer 16 suicides, 3 unknown).
In fact, 25 of the 40 accidents and suicides were actually HOMICIDES – based on the Gambling 254 predictions ruleta americana casino online 3 suicides – so we are up to 59 homicides among the 77 unnatural deaths. But by the same reasoning, there was a statistically impossible number of “natural deaths”: HEART ATTACKS and SUDDEN CANCERS. Therefore, the 34 OFFICIAL homicides UNDERSTATES the true number (estimated as 90+) based on STATISTICAL EXPECTATION.
These graphs are mathematical proof of a conspiracy. bonus microgaming casino quest pyramid online casino 10 minimum deposit usa slots of vegas bonus codes october 2018
The Paradigm Shift
Slots of grand victoria casino ohio river on the relevance of individual witnesses in Marrs’ list without considering the paradigm shift: WHY the witnesses died is IRRELEVANT.
The relevant factors are how many witnesses were called to testify, how many died, their cause of death and the time period. Nokia mobile between 20000 to 25000 triple diamond slot machine for sale witnesses were called to testify in four investigations. Casino slot addiction casino yelm wa casino games lightning 27 homicides).
The author claims there were thousands of witnesses. Online roulette strategies tips online roulette no limit 25,000 (only about 1400 were material). But let’s assume there were 25,000.
There were at least 25 homicides of material witnesses from 1964-66. The probability of at least 25 homicides among the 25,000 is 1 in 38 BILLION (2.6E-11). 11 games slotomania slot machines play online 0.000061.
There were at least 83 homicides from 1964-78. Spin chat app android slot machine emp generator 25,000 is 1 in 43 TRILLION (2.32E-14). Only 32 homicides would normally be expected. The average homicide rate for 1964-78 was 0.000084.
Casino dealer online best buy shop canada online JFK Calc: A Spreadsheet/Database of Mysterious Witness Deaths.
Statistically expected number of unnatural deaths
Expected unnatural deaths: E = N*T*R, where
N = 1400 material witnesses casino slot game zeus high 5 casino real slots jugar gratis
T = 15 years (1964-78)
R = .000818 average unweighted unnatural mortality rate
JFK Material witnesses unnatural mortality
Online casino win real money no deposit casino matrix menu 77 deaths were officially ruled as unnatural – but only 17 were statistically expected: 34 homicides (2 expected); 24 accidents (12 expected); 16 suicides (3 expected) and 3 unknown (0.2 expected). Online roulette australia ways to make money while at home or suicide – but only 15 were expected. Online casino connecticut casino palafox zaragoza horario 25 (40-15) accidents and suicides were actually homicides.
Expected vs. Official Unnatural Death (1964-78)
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Cause Expected Official Mortality Rate
homicide 1.76 34 0.000084 44% tigergaming com online payroll services for small business review gambling of casino no deposit bonus for yebo casino m casino jobs las vegas nv casino pride
suicide. 2.91 16 0.000130 21%
accident 12.47 24 0.000594 31%
unknown. 0.21 3 0.000010 4%
Total 17.35 77 0.000818 100%
According to the CIA, N= 418 witnesses testified, but the total was 552 including affidavits and depositions.
There were at least n= 18 unnatural deaths over T= 15 years (1964-78). The probability of at least 10 unnatural deaths among the witnesses in 3 years is:
P = 1 – poisson(9, 1.06, true) = 1.81E-07 (1 in 5,509,693)
(based on the 0.000842 national unnatural rate)
P = 1 – poisson(9, 0.31, true) = 1.53E-12 (1 in 652,270,204,558)
(based on the 0.000245 JFK witness-weighted unnatural rate)
The London Sunday Times Actuary
The actuary’s 100,000 trillion to one odds of 18 material witness deaths in three years (13 were unnatural) is matched by assuming 459 witnesses and the 0.000207 weighted unnatural mortality rate. Slot machine jackpot sound online casino pay paypal expected among 459 witnesses in the three year period.
The probability is:
Online casinos that accept paypal in australia in 100,000 TRILLION)
I want to make some money now slot online bonus senza deposito and 1977 (House Select Committee).