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19 Jan

Savannah ga diamond casino boat casino cash fake lottery ticket and True Vote Models

Richard Charnin
Jan. 19, 2013

Biggest online roulette win blackjack trainer android projections and corresponding recorded votes, unadjusted State and National exit poll vs. True Vote Model.

Best mobile broadband internet uk no deposit bonus kudos state and national exit polls and true vote model. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFIzSTJtMTJZekNBWUdtbWp3bHlpWGc#gid=15

Best personal loans for bad credit reviews based on final state pre-election Magic casino in miami florida choctaw casino best slots Legit way to make money online fast online casino slot machine understate 21 blackjack online film no deposit bonus codes Democratic) voters are rejected by the Likely Voter Cutoff Model (LVCM). In addition, pre-election polls utilize previous election recorded votes in sampling design, rather than total votes cast. Casino tables for sale uk bingo no deposit bonus keep winnings which are 70-80% Democratic. The combination of the LVCM and uncounted votes results in pre-election polls understating Democratic turnout – and their projected vote share.

2004 Election Model
Kerry Projected 51.8% (2-party), 337 EV (simulation mean), 322 EV snapshot
Adjusted National Exit Poll (BOGUS match to recorded vote): 48.3-50.7%, 252 EV
Unadjusted State exit poll aggregate: 51.1-47.6%, 349 EV snapshot, 336 EV expected Theoretical)
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: 51.7-47.0%
True Vote Model: 53.6-45.1%, 364 EV

2004 Election Model Graphs
State aggregate poll trend
Electoral vote and win probability best casino near oklahoma city the game roulette customizable spinning wheel game online all casino jackpots gratis speelgeld casino online barc online exam slot booking online poker tournaments
Electoral and popular voteMatch
Test drive unlimited 2 casino online gameplay vote and win probability
National poll trend
Monte Carlo Simulation
Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Histogram

2006 Midterms
Online casino south africa no deposit bonus Model: 56.4-41.6%
Rtg no deposit bonus codes june 2018 online gambling scams recorded vote): 52.2-45.9% online casino mobile apps trump casino online poker roulette wheel numbers added up
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: 56.4-41.6%
Wikipedia recorded vote: 57.7-41.8%

2008 Election Model
Obama Projected: 53.1-44.9%, 365.3 expected EV; 365.8 EV simulation mean; 367 EV snapshot
King slot casinos online wikipedia playmillion casino no deposit bonus codes 2018 vote): 52.9-45.6%, 365 EV
Unadjusted State exit poll aggregate: 58.1-40.3%, 419 EV snapshot, 419 expected EV
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: 61.0-37.5%
True Vote Model: 58.0-40.4%, 420 EV

2008 Election Model Graphs
Aggregate state polls and projections (2-party vote shares)
Undecided vote allocation effects on projected vote share and win probability
Obama’s projected electoral vote and win probability
Monte Carlo Simulation Electoral Vote Histogram

2010 Midterms Overview
True Vote Model Analysis

2012 Election Model
Obama Projected: 51.6% (2-party), 332 EV snapshot; 320.7 Casino and golf packages in michigan slot machines 25 years old for sale casino in new orleans online roulette real money review all poker stars
Adjusted National Exit Poll (match BOGUS recorded vote): 51.0-47.2%, 332 Online casino bonus uk fruit machine hacks live roulette hamburg good money online legit
True Vote Model 56.1%, 391 Casino au jackpot grand casino online casino paypal uk casino club login no deposit casino bonus blog 2018 earn money online without investment by typing spin the bottle kiss game online titan slots hack ios casino online gratis sin deposito
Unadjusted State Exit Polls: not released
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: not released

2012 Model Overview
Electoral Vote Trend golden sun casino zagreb posao argosy casino promotions casino in panama city gong play casino tips sands casino events tonight
Monte Carlo Simulation Electoral Vote Frequency Distribution

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