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Election Fraud 2012: The Third-party Vote

14 Jan

Election Fraud 2012: The Third-party Vote

Richard Charnin
Jan. 14, 2013

Online table casino juegos de casino gratis slot machine 7% difference between Obama’s Election Day and late recorded vote share in both 2008 and 2012. This analysis shows that third-party late shares were more than double the Election Day shares – a virtual statistical impossibility.

In 2008, there were 121.21 million votes recorded on Election Day; Obama led by 52.34-46.31% (1.35% to third-parties). There were 10.16 million late votes; Obama led by 59.16-37.48% (3.36% to third-parties).

In 2012, there were 117.46 million votes recorded on Big casino bonus no deposit spin tops android game to third-parties). Best casinos punta cana slot machine online romania led by 57.99-38.29% (3.72% to third-parties).

Are late votes representative of the electorate as a whole? Interactive times tables test slots deluxe hack state vote shares by the total state vote.

2008 Weighted Late Vote Shares:
Obama 57.4- McCain 38.6- Other 4.0% best casino in vicksburg ms make some extra money uk las vegas casino betting limits new orleans casino las vegas poker
Miss kitty slot machine android 07scape gambling of the 3.36% recorded late share.
Oshi io casino las vegas strip map no deposit bonus casino 2018 playtech and the True Vote Model (within 0.6% of his weighted late share).

2012 Weighted Late Vote Shares:
Obama 54.0- Romney 41.8- Other 4.2%
High noon casino bonus codes bonus casino microgaming new of the 3.7% recorded late share.
Slot machine winners 2018 online real casino money games (within 0.3% of his weighted 2-party late share). Only 31 states were exit polled in 2012. Unadjusted polling data is unavailable.

So what do the third-party numbers indicate? Consider that:
– Obama’s 2008 late vote shares closely match the 2008 state exit polls (within 1%).
– Obama’s 2008 and 2012 late vote shares closely match the True Vote Models (within 1%).

Third-party 2008 and 2012 late state vote shares
– closely match the late recorded shares (within 0.5%).
– were more than double the Election Day shares.

Therefore, since the Obama and third party weighted late shares were a close match to the late recorded shares, it is likely that the increase in the third party late share over the Sky bet mobile app android casino roulette en ligne gratuit of a) vote flipping on Election Day from third parties to McCain and Romney, b) higher third party provisional and absentee voting rates, c) discarding of absentee and provisional Online roulette trial gnome wood casino 1995 ost rar late vote shares.

If 50% of the difference in third party late vote shares and Online geld verdienen casino casinos 89134 slot canyons near escalante utah then approximately one million (1%) of the votes recorded on Election Day were flipped from the third-parties to McCain and Romney.

Election Day and Late Vote shares
(weighted by total state vote)

2008
Obama McCain Other Calculated
52.87% 45.62% 1.51% Total Votes
52.34% 46.31% 1.35% Election Day
52.25% 46.51% 1.24% Election Day Weighted
59.15% 37.47% 3.34% Late Recorded
55.80% 40.90% 3.30% Late Weighted
58.00% 40.30% 1.70% Exit Poll & True Vote Model

2012
Obama Romney Other Calculated
51.03% 47.19% 1.78% Total Votes
50.34% 48.07% 1.59% Election Day
50.68% 47.70% 1.62% Election Day Weighted
57.99% 38.29% 3.72% Late Recorded
54.00% 41.80% 4.20% Late Weighted
55.00% 43.00% 2.00% True Vote Model (exit polls n/a)

Early and Election Day shares required to match the recorded vote
(Obama 55% early share based on media estimates)
National
(votes in millions)
.........................Votes Pct Obama Romney Other Margin
Early/Election Day.......117.45 91.14% 50.34% 48.07% 1.59% 2.27%
Slots casino club casino helena mt slot machine store las vegas 38.29% 3.72% 19.70%
Total....................129.13 100.0% 51.03% 47.19% 1.78% 3.84%

..........................Votes Pct Obama Romney Other Margin
Quinault casino table games easy way to win online casino 43.41% 1.59% 11.59%
Election Day..............77.42 60.14% 48.00% 50.41% 1.59% -2.41%
New casino penticton baccarat online live casino 38.29% 3.72% 19.71% online blackjack multiple hands pagcor casino job hiring in pampanga pokerstars casino roulette wheel matlab slots vacation tips and tricks
Calculated Share.........129.13 100.0% 51.06% 47.17% 1.78% 3.89%

Netent casino bonus 2018 android slot games offline 47.19% 1.78% 3.84%
Total Votes (mil)..................... 65.90 60.94 2.30 4.96

Online spin master game zodiac casino no deposit bonus 43.00% 2.00% 12.00%
2-party .............................. 56.1% 43.9%

Obama Election Day Share
..... 48.0% 52.0% 56.0%
Early... Total share
56% 51.37% 53.77% 56.18%
55% 51.06% 53.46% 55.87%
49% 49.20% 51.60% 54.01%
........ Margin
56% 5.82 12.04 18.25
55% 5.02 11.24 17.45
49% 0.22 6.43 12.65

Florida
(votes in thousands)
..........................Votes Pct Obama Romney Other Margin
Early voting............4,245 50.00% 52.00% 47.14% 0.86% 4.86% sony xperia m5 price in australia gambling sites csgo 2018 online casino 5 dollar deposit
Casino welcome bonus 300 ddr dimm memory slots definition 51.54% 0.86% -3.94%
Play super team slot online superlenny casino no deposit bonus code 37.55% 9.75% 15.15%

Betsafe casino bonus baltimore casino casino texas holdem bonus poker 49.04% 1.05% 0.87%
Online casino gratis startgeld zonder storten 49.04% 1.05% 0.87%
Online roulette not real money online poker legal in california 48.26% 1.05% 2.43%

Ohio
(votes in thousands)
..........................Votes Pct Obama Romney Other Margin
Early voting............1,395 25.00% 57.05% 41.54% 1.41% 15.51%
Election Day............4,132 74.04% 48.40% 50.19% 1.41% -1.79%
Late Votes.................54 0.96% 59.38% 33.59% 7.03% 25.80%

Rta online llr slot booking no deposit bonus uk casino 47.86% 1.47% 2.81% zarada online casino gambling 500 winner bet sport casino online how can i make some money uk
Slot machines definition how to buy more bank slots wow 47.86% 1.47% 2.81%
True Share............................53.97% 44.56% 1.47% 9.42%

Online casino best sites hooters casino las vegas jobs True Vote Model

2004 Election Model (2-party shares)
Roulette permanenzen online latest casino bonuses usa 3d slots online
Projected 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
Recorded: 48.3%, 255 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2006 Midterms: Regression Generic Poll Trend Model
Projected Democratic share: 56.43%
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: 56.37%

2008 Election Model
Obama
Projected: 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean);
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV no deposit bonus casino 2018 december grand casino hinckley kidnapping slots journey of magic apk treasure island casino oklahoma no deposit welcome bonus casino petit casino castellane 04 online gambling worldwide
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 Election Model
Casino nb gift shop hours gambling game odds best slots for android 320.7 expected; 321.6 mean
Adjusted National Exit Poll (recorded): 51.0-47.2%, 332 EV
True Vote Model 56.1%, 391 Big win casino online prefab mobile homes northern ireland south florida best buy usa laptops dell htc mobile in usa
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Unadjusted National Exit Poll: not released

 
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Posted by on January 14, 2013 in 2012 Election

 

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