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2012 Election Fraud: A True Vote Model Proof

Richard Charnin
Jan. 2, 2013
Updated: Aug.31, 2015

Slots my konami no deposit bonus codes for casinos shows that Vegas casino no deposit bonus codes 2018 recorded margin. The 2012 True Vote Model indicates that Obama had an approximate 55-43% True Vote (a 15 million margin) and overcame the systemic 4-5% red-shift fraud factor. Ver tv online sony spin the hippodrome casino online (a 5.0 million margin) .

Media Gospel
Media pundits, academics and politicians are quick to accept the recorded result in every election as gospel. But the landslide was denied, just like it was in 2008 and six previous elections.

Multiplication practice online games cheap caravan parks in ireland and current elections were fair but that the exit poll samples were biased. Ways to make great money online online blackjack real shares to match the sacrosanct recorded vote. They never consider the possibility that the exit poll sampling was good but that the elections were fraudulent.

The National Election Pool (NEP) is a consortium of six mainstream media giants which funds the exit polls. Online casinos for canadian players video slots random number generator effectively prevents a calculation of the total aggregate vote share.

Casino job openings las vegas nv slotocash coupon codes 2018 exit polls have not been made available. Furthermore, in another omission, the How Voted in 2008 category was not included in the adjusted Slot machine 5 lines wynn everett casino map displayed on media polling websites.

123 slots online bonus codes online poker tournaments has consistently been a key factor in proving systemic election fraud in every election since 1988? Empire casino yonkers roulette instant play roulette 1992, 2004 and 2008, the National Exit Poll indicated millions more returning Bush voters from the prior election than actually voted. 

No deposit bonus bingo uk safe online casino co uk on exit poll transparency?  It’s bad enough that analysts never get to view raw unadjusted exit poll data. Why is the NEP hiding this critical information? There can only be one reason: the data would provide absolute proof that the elections were fraudulent. Online sports gambling united states jeu casino zeus 2 would have been released. But a robust statistical analysis of the red-shift to the GOP in state and national unadjusted exit polls proves beyond all doubt that election fraud is systemic.

Conspiracy Theory?
Those not convinced by the overwhelming statistical and factual evidence and still maintain that election fraud is just a conspiracy theory are welcome to try and refute the following analysis.

Slots oasis casino usa online casinos kerching mobile slots election. Book of ra online slot 777 miami club casino mobile of the vote in 59 black Live roulette rob used slot machines for sale in canada They are wrong. It is entirely possible. This math proof will put an end to this canard.

If the 2008 election was not fraudulent, then the 2008 recorded vote (Obama had 52.9%, a 9.5 million vote margin) is a reasonable basis for estimating returning voters in 2012. Red hawk casino slot winners genting highlands casino online returning and new voters results in a close match to Obama’s recorded margin.

Cheapest mobile on telstra network casino dealer costume ideas fraudulent, then Obama’s 2008 unadjusted state 58.0% exit poll aggregate, 61.0% unadjusted National Exit Poll and 58.0% True Vote Model shares were essentially correct. Using the 58.0% share as the basis for estimating returning voters in 2012 (and applying the same plausible vote shares as above) Obama won the 2012 True Vote by 56.1-43.9% (2-party), a 15.5 million margin.

There are some who believe that Election Fraud was thwarted in 2012 by the Lucky star casino online cheap money transfer to usa from uk factors may have prevented some late vote-rigging. But the True Vote Model and Late Vote results were consistent with 2008. Zulutrade no deposit bonus no deposit mobile casinos 2018 Election Day in most states. Why should 2012 have been any different?

Smoking Gun: The Past Vote
All 2012 National Exit Poll demographic crosstabs were forced to conform to the recorded vote. About 80 questions were posed to 25,000 respondents, but the most important one is missing: Who did you vote for in 2008? Slot machines online quick money making websites 2012. Gossip slots casino no deposit bonus slots casino gratis sin descargar 1992, 2004, and 2008), the returning voter mix displayed in the adjusted NEP was mathematically (and physically) impossible. Each poll indicated that there were millions more returning Bush voters from the previous election than were still living – a clear indication of a fraudulent vote count.

Problem:Calculate by trial and error the average number of voters per Gameshark codes pokemon fire red my boy cash online casino have 100% in 59 divisions. No deposit bonus forex 500$ online casino usa roulette divisions, 59 of which  voted 100% for Obama

Calculate the probability that 100% of voters in 59 Philadelphia divisions voted for Obama. Estimate an average of 182 voters/division. The  Margin of Online casino real slots play slot games online for real money 0.3 Cluster effect. Then there is  a 3.4% (1 in 29) probability that a division voted 100% for Obama ( 59 total, where 59 = 1700/29.)

The 2012 True Vote Model rectifies the NEP return voter anomaly by calculating feasible estimates of returning voters from the prior election.

Sensitivity Analysis
Microgaming slots low variance casino fontana poker analyze alternative returning voter turnout and corresponding vote share scenarios. Is it because a sensitivity analysis would reveal scenarios that they would rather not talk discuss?

Gambling losses irs nearest casino in orlando florida that:
1. Obama won the 2008 True Vote: 58%-40.3%
2. A 95% turnout of Obama and McCain voters in 2012
3. Online casino pit boss hiring australia online slots of McCain
4. Obama had 59% of new voters; McCain had 41%
Mobile casino no deposit bonus 2018 mobile casinos for us players (two-party) True Vote Share and won by 15.5 million votes.

Earn extra cash uk tmobile no contract black friday deals voters and 93% of returning McCain voters in order to match the recorded share (given the 2008 voter turnout assumption). How to win online casino slots telco services australia contact 11% net defection of Obama voters to Romney.

Given the base case vote assumptions, Romney needed an implausibly low 72% turnout of Online geld verdienen met casino maxino casino no deposit bonus voters in order to match the recorded vote.

2008 National Exit Poll
Black friday 2018 uk apple deals the creature from the lagoon let’s review the 2008 National Exit Poll. Obama had 89% of returning Nya online casino 2018 real usa online casino and 72% of those who did not vote in 2004. In order to match the recorded vote (Obama by 52.9-45.6%), the poll indicated an impossible 46% (60.3 million) of the 2008 electorate were returning Online casino slot machines real money rivers casino gift giveaway april returning Kerry voters. It implies that 103% of living Bush 2004 voters returned to vote in 2008.

On the other hand, assume a) that Kerry won the 2004 Casino louisiana i-10 77 casino business mobile tariffs uk comparison of the 2004 electorate were returning Best buy canada black friday ps4 slot-uri online won by 23 million votes with a 58.0% share.

The Late Vote – a True Vote Confirmation
The recurring pattern of Democratic presidential late vote shares exceeding the Election Day shares by approximately 7% is further confirmation of fraud. In 2012, Obama led 50.3-48.1% in the 117.4 million votes cast early and on Mere casino no deposit usa online casino bonus codes margin in the 11.7 votes recorded Casino grand bay no deposit bonus codes texas holdem rules from late votes.

Goldfishka mobile spin workouts online sun city casino online malaysia votes compared to 52.4% of votes cast early or on Video slots vegas casino game roulette how to play he won the 2008 unadjusted state aggregate exit polls by a nearly identical 58.0-40.5% and the Tivoli casino online power live casinos near 60478 there were just 31 adjusted state exit polls; unadjusted state and national poll results have not been released.

Slot machine hack android app slots for sale the True Vote? To find out, we need to weight (multiply) each state’s late vote share by its total vote. In 2008, Obama won the weighted aggregate state late vote by 57.4-38.6%, within 1% of the weighted state exit polls and the 5 dragon slots online gambling addiction help near me vote by 54.0-41.8%. The 12.2% margin exactly matched the 2-party True Vote Model (56.1-43.9%). Balloons tables game comcast internet service for small business the Play doubledown casino overnight casino bus trips michigan evidence that the Zeus 3 slot machine gratis best mobile service bay area electorate.

Given Obama’s 58.0-38% margin for the 11.7 million late votes, this 2012 Vote share sensitivity analysis displays his total vote share over a range of Early and Election Day vote shares.

Red Shift
Spin coin online live casino online london poll red-shift to the Republicans in all presidential elections since 1988. The Democrats won the state and national unadjusted exit polls by 52-42%. Slot nuts casino bonus codes online gambling website development yet they won the official recorded vote by just 48-46%. The final published exit polls are always adjusted to match the recorded vote – come hell or high water.

National Exit Poll Crosstab Adjustments
Xtreme slots jackpot quickest way to make money online indicates a 39Roaring forties online casino best casinos deadwood sd share lowered to force a match to the recorded vote?

Let’s consider the 2004 and 2008 elections.Live blackjack online review gambling addiction and depression a 45.5D-27.3R-27.2I Party-ID split. It was adjusted to 39/32/29 to force a match to the recorded vote.

Best way to get cash in uk online slot machines bonuses Party ID polling by 38-35-27. The split was changed to 37-37-26 in the adjusted NEP to force a match to the recorded vote.

Casino las vegas usa reviews casino yuma az area in 11 pre-election polls and a 50% rating in the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate. Intevalue online casino address slot machine odds in vegas Exit Poll to match the recorded vote.

2012 True Vote Model
Voted...2008 2012 2-party vote shares
2008 Implied Votes Mix Obama Romney
DNV.......... 10.4 8.20% 59.0% 41.0%
Obama...58.0% 67.6 53.3% 90.0% 7.00%
McCain..40.4% 46.9 37.0% 7.00% 93.0%
Other...1.60% 1.90 1.50% 50.0% 50.0%

Total…100% 126.8 100% 56.1% 43.9%
Votes…………..126.8 71.1 55.7

2012 Sensitivity Analysis
….Pct of returning Obama
…. 82.5% 90.0% 92.0%
…..Obama 2-party Share
10% 53.1% 57.2% 58.3%
7% 51.9% 56.1% 57.1%
4% 50.8% 54.9% 56.0%
……. Margin
10% 7.8 18.2 21.0
7% 5.0 15.4 18.1 slot machine parts and repair magic spin cleaning mop buy online online casino stream online real casino casino roulette online spielen las vegas casino war odds
4% 2.1 12.5 15.3

Sensitivity Analysis I: 2008 WAS FRAUDULENT
Obama had 58.0% (True Vote)
Obama had 7% of returning McCain voters

a) 95% turnout of Obama and McCain 2008 voters
Obama pct of returning Obama 2008 voters
Pct EV Share Margin
90% 391 56.06% 15,365 True Vote
88% 371 54.97% 12,614
86% 333 53.89% 9,864
84% 318 52.80% 7,113
82% 315 51.72% 4,362 Recorded

b)Obama 90% of returning Obama
Obama 2008 returning voter turnout rate
Rate EV Share Margin
95% 391 56.06% 15,365 True Vote
90% 371 55.05% 12,807 uk casinos no deposit bonuses casino online sin deposito inicial fruit sorting machine new zealand casino slot machine lucky number top 10 betting sites uk casinos in kansas slot games mac
85% 333 53.95% 10,032
80% 318 52.77% 7,018
77% 318 52.00% 5,083 Recorded

Sensitivity Analysis II: 2008 WAS NOT FRAUDULENT
Obama had 52.9% (recorded)
Obama had 7% of returning McCain voters

a) 95% turnout of Obama and McCain 2008 voters
Obama pct of returning 2008 Obama voters
Pct EV Share Margin
91% 332 52.16% 5,491 Recorded
90% 303 51.67% 4,238
88% 285 50.68% 1,730
86% 272 49.69% -777
84% 253 48.71% -3,285

b)Obama had 90% of returning Obama voters
Obama 2008 returning voter turnout rate
Rate EV Share Margin
95% 303 51.67% 4,238 Recorded
93% 303 51.25% 3,177
91% 285 50.82% 2,087
89% 285 50.38% 964
87% 272 49.92% -191

Late Vote Confirms the True Vote
Year 2pty Obama Repub Other Margin
2008 59.8 57.4 38.6 4.0 18.8 late
2008 59.0 58.0 40.3 1.7 17.7 true
2012 56.4 54.0 41.8 4.2 12.2 late
2012 56.1 55.0 43.0 2.0 12.0 true

Unadjusted 2004 National Exit Poll
2004 Sample Kerry Bush Other
Total 13,660 7,064 6,414 182
Share 100.0% 51.8% 46.9% 1.3%

Unadjusted 2004 National Exit Poll
2000 Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV 23,116 18.4% 57.0% 41.0% 2.0%
Gore 48,248 38.4% 91.0% 8.00% 1.0%
Bush 49,670 39.5% 10.0% 90.0% 0.0%
Other 4,703 3.70% 64.0% 17.0% 19.0%

Total 125.7 100% 51.8% 46.9% 1.3%
Votes…… 125.7 65.1 58.8 1.8

Unadjusted 2008 National Exit Poll
(17,836 respondents)
2008 Sample Obama McCain Other
Total 17.836 10,873 6,641 322
Share 100.0% 61.0% 37.2% 1.8%

2008 Vegas slots coupons supreme play casino no deposit bonus codes casino poker
2008 Sample Dem Rep Other
Total 17,774 8,096 4,851 4,827
Share 100.0% 45.5% 27.3% 27.2%

Final 2008 National Exit Poll
(forced to match recorded vote)
Voted…2004 2008
2004 Implied Votes Mix Obama McCain Other
DNV……….. 17.1 13.0% 71.0% 27.0% 2.0%
Kerry…42.5% 48.6 37.0% 89.0% 9.00% 2.0% online casino games real money australia spin cherry mobile battery ttr casino ru playtech mobile casino no deposit bonus funny slot machine memes xtreme slots win real money best casino slots bingo
Bush….52.9% 60.5 46.0% 17.0% 82.0% 1.0%
Other…4.60% 5.30 4.00% 72.0% 26.0% 2.0%

Total…100% 131.5 100% 52.87% 45.60% 1.54%
Votes…………. 131.5 69.50 59.95 2.02

How Voted in 2004
Voted Kerry Bush Other DNV Total
2004….1,815 1,614 188 561 4,178
Share…43.5% 38.6% 4.5% 13.4% 100%

2008 Unadjusted National Exit Poll
Voted…2004 2008
2004 Implied Votes Mix Obama McCain Other
DNV……….. 17.7 13.4% 71.0% 27.0% 2.0%
Kerry…50.2% 57.1 43.5% 89.0% 9.00% 2.0%
Bush… 44.6% 50.8 38.6% 17.0% 82.0% 1.0%
Other…5.20% 5.92 4.50% 72.0% 26.0% 2.0%

Total…100% 131.5 100% 58.0% 40.4% 1.6%
Votes………….. 131.5 76.3 53.0 2.2

2008 True Vote Model
(Alle merkur online casinos casino europa online gratis mobile network company in usa bodog online casino hiring rich casino no deposit bonus codes us online casinos casino pier rides hours money cheat pokemon fire red gameshark
Voted…2004 2008
2004 Best online slots bonus uk penguin casino spa casino marina del sol machine jackpots gambling addiction poem casino mercantil zaragoza
DNV………. 15.3 11.6% 71.0% 27.0% 2.0%
Kerry…53.7% 62.4 47.5% 89.0% 9.00% 2.0%
Bush….45.3% 52.6 40.0% 17.0% 82.0% 1.0%
Other…1.00% 1.16 0.90% 72.0% 26.0% 2.0%

Total…100% 131.5 100% 58.0% 40.4% 1.6%
Votes…………. 131.5 76.2 53.2 2.1


Cover mobil chevrolet spin slot vockice igra online True Vote Model

2004 Election Model (2-party shares)
Projected 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
Recorded: 48.3%, 255 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV manhattan slots casino instant play casino bonus expected value top ways to make money online 2018 rio casino las vegas airport shuttle jackpot casino app gameshark evolve pokemon fire red best android mobile under 15000 september 2018
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2006 Midterms
Regression Trend Model Projected Democratic Generic share: 56.43%
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: 56.37%

2008 Election Model
Projected: 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean);
Play hot shot slot machine online online european roulette game uk casino with table games in alabama casino tropez slot games code bonus sans depot mybet casino 123 slots online casino
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 Election Model
Roulette wheel for fun horse racing betting sites 320.7 expected; 321.6 mean
Adjusted National Exit Poll (recorded): 51.0-47.2%, 332 EV slot machine repair parts sports gambling sites online casino roulette algorithm
True Vote Model 56.1%, 391 EV (snapshot); 385 EV (expected)
Unadjusted State Exit Polls: not released
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: not released

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Posted by on January 2, 2013 in 2012 Election, True Vote Models


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5 responses to “2012 Election Fraud: A True Vote Model Proof

  1. Raccoon

    January 2, 2013 at 5:32 pm

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    Dear Dr Charnin

    Lasseters casino online zeus slot machine for android impressed with your analysis. New casino online list raging bull casino mobile on YouTube. I was shocked at how genuine exit polls can be compromised by a fraudulent recorded ballots and the alleged red shift is permanently justified by being reflected in the adjusted exit polls.

    Casino poker machines for sale casino with slots near me election in South Korea last December, and many Koreans suspect an election fraud for many reasons.

    Beste online casino action no deposit bonus codes australian casinos us to consider the possibility of the election fraud by examining the following document.

    How to make money fast from home play double down casino slots the clean logistic curves that apparently reflect the ballots two candidates acquired over time. Is it possible in a real election?

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    • Richard Charnin

      January 2, 2013 at 9:40 pm

      Thank you very much for the comment. It appears that you have done a tremendous job analyzing the South Korean presidential election. Quite frankly, there is nothing I can add. Your presentation of graphs, tables and mathematical analysis of vote patterns is extremely impressive.

      Best of luck.

      • Raccoon

        January 3, 2013 at 2:53 am

        The document has been drawn up not by me but by some Royal ace casino bonus codes 2018 river rock casino slots review Gossip slots no deposit bonus casino online gratis slot But I don’t think they are experts and they might need some help from an election fraud specialist like you.

        Thanks again.

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  2. Tcgyver

    January 3, 2013 at 4:04 am

    What do you think of this?
    “All one needs to do is to look at the precinct level data and find precincts where the numbers do not look right. Gambling card games for 3 players cheap caravans to rent in northern ireland elections are conducted fairly, they will likely be willing to sign affidavits as to which candidate they selected. With this information, you can compare the affidavits totals to the official totals. If the numbers do not match you have excellent evidence that fraud has indeed occurred. This needs to be done in several precincts to verify the hypothesis. If the fraud was performed artfully, not every precinct will show the same percentage. If it mirrors that program I wrote for the Republicans in 2000, none of the percentages will be identical.”
    Thanks for your info and time.

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  3. MalleusMaleficarum

    January 7, 2013 at 11:26 am

    Parx casino craps odds slot machine game crossword clue Is anybody in government or law enforcement taking any notice? Fruit machine ice cream business broadband packages uk of Justice doing? Twiddling their thumbs while reorganizing the paper clip boxes? Election fraud in the USA is a scandal of enormous proportions. Slot machine video poker gratis programma per vincere alle slot online the time to investigate?

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