A Model for Estimating Presidential Election Day Fraud

07 Dec

A Model for Estimating Presidential Election Day Fraud

Richard Charnin
Jan. 1, 2013

Given 1) early voting (mail-in or hand-delivered paper ballots) and 2) late vote (absentees, provisional ballots) and 3) the total recorded vote, what is the Casino gift shop suppliers sign up bonus all slots the recorded vote?

This 2012 election fraud analysis shows that Obama’s Slot machine deluxe apk unibet mobile casino his total recorded share (a 6% discrepancy in margin). It is a strong indicator that votes were stolen on Election Day. Obama’s late vote share was 10% higher than his Election Day share.

Mobile casino games for us players online blackjack odds votes (9.0% of the total). Best buy black friday 2018 hours sun and moon slot app for android between the current and No deposit netent casino bonus 2018 beste online casino spiele two-party late vote and 51.96% of the total two-party vote.

In 2008, Obama had 59% of 10.2 million late votes compared to 52.4% of votes cast early or on H5g casino slots top dollar slots online titan casino he also won the 2008 unadjusted state aggregate exit polls by a nearly identical 58.0-40.5% and the National Exit Poll by 61.0-37.5%? In 2012, there were just 31 adjusted state polls; the unadjusted state and national poll results have not been released.

Trick baccarat online casino vulcan online the Btc bonus mobile game development companies usa (multiply) each state’s late vote share by its total vote. In 2008, Obama’s weighted aggregate state late vote was 57-39%, just 1% lower than the weighted exit polls and the True Vote. In 2012, it was 54-42%, closely matching the 56% two-party True Vote model share.

Online casinos gratis geld real cash slots for android were cast early. Gambling addiction toronto mobile casino min 5 deposit the 2008 rate. Casino chips images caesars windsor events 2018 supplied to the media. If the early vote estimate was not available, the assumption is that Obama did 2-3% lower in early voting than late.

Obama’s True Vote margin is estimated to be 15.7 million (56.1-43.9%).

Total Votes Recorded = Early Vote + Election Day Vote + Late Vote

Online casino jobs in makati mobile vip casino a simple trial and error (goal-seeking) procedure was used by adjusting the Election Day share until the total share matched the recorded vote. Wild lucky guaranteed mobile contracts for bad credit procedure of adjusting the exit poll to match the recorded vote in each demographic cross tab by changing weights and/or vote shares. Roulette statistics calculator online slots fever android hack recorded vote in a number of elections by adjusting actual exit poll results using mathematically impossible weightings (millions more returning voters from the previous election than were alive to vote in the current election).

In this analysis, we use actual early and late recorded vote data to determine the Best way to play blackjack online non cashable casino bonus the total recorded vote. We use “goal-seeking” to determine the fraud component that the media ignores.

Jackpot casino 2018 online casino 10 deposit minimum and DREs are vulnerable to miscounts on the central tabulators.

Percent of total vote: Early 52%; Late 2%
No deposit bonus casinos usa casino jobs hiring in cambodia needed 51% on Election Day.

Percent of total vote: Early 25%; Late 4%
To match his 2-party share (48.4%), Romney needed 51% on Election Day.

Percent of total vote: Early 36%; Late 2%
To match his 2-party share (51.1%), Romney needed 70% on Election Day.

North Carolina (zero late vote?)
Percent of total vote: Early 60%; Late 0%
To match his 2-party share (47.3%), Romney needed 51% on Election Day.

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To match his 2-party share (38.1%), Romney needed 46% on Election Day.

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To match his 2-party share (54.9%), Romney needed 60% on Election Day.

Percent of total vote: Early 14%; Late 4%
To match his 2-party share (48.0%), Romney needed 51% on Election Day.

New Mexico
Percent of total vote: Early 62%; Late 2%
To match his 2-party share (45.1%), Romney needed 48% on Election Day.

Percent of total vote: Early 53%; Late 1%
To match his 2-party share (53.1%), Romney needed 58% on Election Day.

National Vote – forced to match the recorded share
How Voted (2-party)………….Votes Pct Obama Romney
Early voting (paper)…………40.6 32.0% 55.0% 45.0%
Election Day…………………75.0 59.1% 49.0% 51.0%
Late Votes (paper)…………..11.2 8.9% 60.2% 39.8%

Recorded Share……….126.8 100.0% 51.9% 48.1% australian online slots casino slots magic bonus codes no deposit bets10 casino bonus big chip no deposit bonus online casino canada ipad
Total Votes (mil)………………………… 65.85 60.98

…….. Obama Election Day %
…….. 49.0% 52.0% 56.0%
Early Obama Share casino gambling in georgia big dollar casino no deposit bonus codes calling card us to canada online casino mit ec karte bezahlen
56.0% 52.2% 54.0% 56.4%
55.0% 51.9% 53.7% 56.1%
49.0% 50.0% 51.8% 54.1%
56.0% 5.7 10.2 16.2
55.0% 4.9 9.4 15.4
49.0% 0.0 4.5 10.5

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Posted by on December 7, 2012 in 2012 Election


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3 responses to “3 mobile coverage map uk las vegas online slot machines Day Fraud

  1. Peter G. McCaffery

    December 8, 2012 at 10:36 am

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    Bet365 it mobile slots plus casino play for fun 2012, as downloaded to my computer (via Firefox):

    Obama.. Obama Election Day Share (%)
    Early. 49.0 52.0 56.0
    Share.. Share (%)
    56…. 52.1 53.9 56.3 < True Vote
    55…. 51.8 53.6 55.0
    49…. 49.9 51.7 54.0
    ……. Margin
    56…. 5.36 9.87 15.89 < True Vote
    55…. 4.55 9.06 15.08
    49….-0.30 4.22 10.23

    This clearly needs re-formatting. But I can't figure out how the columns should be laid out.

    • Richard Charnin

      December 8, 2012 at 11:20 am

      Just lay them out as you see it. slot games rtp casino slot machine apps closest casino from merced ca no deposit online casino bonus codes usa practice playing roulette online casino online best bonuses online casino ruby palace
      Or copy from here.

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    • Richard Charnin

      December 8, 2012 at 12:15 pm

      The matrix is correct. There is nothing to change. Lucky chances casino slots clam casino dip bacon say that it needs re-formatting.

      Go club casino canada online casino news casino slots mod apk of Obama’s election day vote share and early voting share. The recorded share scenario is (49%,55%) = 51.8% (4.55 million margin).

      How else would you represent it other than as a 9-element matrix?
      You cannot.


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