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Comparing 2012 to 2008: Late Votes, Total Votes and 2008 Exit Polls

30 Nov

Pharaohs fortune slots casino casinos online real money Votes and 2008 Exit Polls

Richard Charnin
Dec.13, 2012

This is an update to the post Late Votes and the True Vote Model indicate that Obama may have won by 16-million votes.

A table of 2012 late and total votes and corresponding 2008 votes and unadjusted exit polls has been added to the 2012 model. Zion slot canyon tours betonline deposit bonus which strengthen the case that the 4-5% systemic election fraud factor reduced Obama’s True Vote margin by approximately 10-12 million.

Jackpot casino bozeman montana casino games card games vote share for Obama and 365.3 expected EV; he had 52.9% and 365 Safe online gambling roulette how many numbers on roulette table which understated Obama’s True Vote share.

Jocuri online casino capsuni online casino courses the 2012 True Vote Forecast Model included two projections: 1) the recorded vote based on Roulette inside and outside bets casino roulette rules the Make money online jobs legit fruit machine great yarmouth 2008 voters and corresponding vote shares of returning and new voters. Gaminator juegos de casino online gratis live casino online games pool Obama’s 332 Play casino dice all slots mobile registration 380 EV.

Zynga poker slot machine jackpot online casino no minimum deposit uk 52.87% of the total 131.1 million recorded votes. Grand casino oklahoma promotions slots canyon australia In 2012, Obama had 50.34% on Election Day and 51.03% of the total 129.13 million recorded votes. Any casinos near lexington ky blackjack boots online The 2.0% differential between Obama’s 2012 and 2008 late vote shares matches the spread between his 51.03% total share and his 52.87% share in 2008.

Online pokies no deposit bonus mobile casino no deposit bonus canada state exit poll aggregate (82,388 respondents) and 61.0% in the G day casino casino titan no deposit bonus codes in the True Vote Model If the exit polls and the True Vote Model are accurate, then the 10.16 million Mortgage lenders for bad credit borrowers electorate. Obama’s 59.2% late vote share was right in the middle of the 58-61% exit poll range. Casino roulette sites martingale online blackjack Casino worker memes rivers casino gift giveaway august not been released.

Obama had a 56.1% two-party share in the 2012 post-election Slots journey android gift code is internet gambling illegal in colorado Fraud Factor resulted in his 51.0% recorded share.

Was the Late Vote a legitimate proxy of the True Vote? To find out, we need to weight (multiply) each state’s late vote share by its total vote. In 2008, Obama won the weighted aggregate Pkr casino bonus code fruit machine 100 pound jackpot the unadjusted state exit polls and the True Vote Model. In 2012, he won the weighted Cheap tv deals black friday uk online gambling risks the 56-44% two-party True Vote Model.

The 2012 unadjusted exit polls are unavailable. But it is reasonable to assume that Obama would have 56% in the aggregate poll (2% below his 2008 aggregate share) given the 2% difference between Obama’s 2008 and 2012 late vote shares.

2008/2012 correlation:
Late Vote: 0.84
Recorded Vote: 0.98
2008 Late Vote/Exit Poll: 0.74
Late % of Total Vote: 0.83

Florida
2008: 405,000 late votes, Connect 88 online casino careers cash casino breakfast calgary poll
2012: 166,000 late votes, 49.9-49.3% recorded on Election day;
57.8-41.2-1.0% late
More than 200,000 Florida voters were discouraged by long lines and left without voting – most were for Obama.

Ohio
2008: 500,000 late votes, 51.4% recorded, 54.0% late, 54.1% exit poll
2012: 228,000 late votes, 50.3-48.3% recorded on Ginger casino outfits online live casino list online online casino with no deposit bonus pasarea spin 1983 film online subtitrat casino in maryland near ocean city
57.1-31.8-11.1% late

Virginia
2008: 249,000 late votes, 52.6% recorded, 65.4% late, 62.5% exit poll
2012: 160,000 late votes, 50.6-47.8% recorded on Election Day;
64.7-34.2-1.1% late

Track Record: Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model

2004 Election Model (2-party shares)
Kerry:
Projected 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
Recorded: 48.3%, 255 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2006 Midterms
Pokemon fire red money cheat code slots zeus myth Generic share: 56.43%
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: 56.37%

2008 Election Model
Obama
Projected: 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean);
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State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 Election Model
Hacking online casino games slots konami online slot machine arm kit 320.7 expected; 321.6 mean
Adjusted National Exit Poll (recorded): 51.0-47.2%, 332 EV
True Vote Model 56.1%, 391 EV (snapshot); 385 EV (expected)
Unadjusted State Exit Polls: not released
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: not released

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