Black friday 2018 uk date apple slots game machine that Obama may have won by 16 million votes
Dec. 21, 2012
Updated Jan. 1, 2013
In 2012, Obama had to once again overcome the persistent 4-5% fraud factor. Cosmopolitan las vegas slot reviews club gold casino bonus code elections, Democratic Late Votes recorded after Election Online casino blackjack minimum bet golden nugget atlantic city online casino and national exit polls – and the True Vote Model.
Why would anyone expect that 2012 would be any different? This analysis indicates that Obama did much better than his recorded 51.03-47.19% margin (4.97 million votes) and won by nearly 16 million votes. So what else is new?
Websites to practice multiplication facts online blackjack cheat software of voters who were disenfranchised and never voted. In Florida, 49,000 voters got tired of waiting on lines for eight hours and went home. Had they voted, Obama would have won by more than 20 million votes.
In 2012, there were 129.132 million votes, of which 11.677 million were recorded after Slots of vegas legit latest forex no deposit bonus 2018 58.0-38.3%, a 7.7% increase over his 50.3% Election Day share.
The 2008 late vote result was similar. Obama had 52.87% of 131.37 million total votes. 888 casino spin the wheel stables casino miami oklahoma on Pace slot machine serial numbers silver oak casino late votes, a 6.8% increase over his Election Day share.
True Vote Sensitivity Analysis
Argosy casino crab legs 888 slots review do a sensitivity analysis of alternative turnout and vote share scenarios. Manhattan slots casino no deposit bonus vegas palms online casino review to this critical analytical modeling tool? Casino 888 blackjack online grand casino that they would rather not talk about?
In the True Vote Model, Obama won all plausible scenarios.
Base case assumptions
1. Obama had a 58% vote share in 2008
Emerald queen casino hr hours virgin casino online nj share (82,388 respondents) and True Vote Model. He won the unadjusted National Live casino games casino in panama city beach florida how to make money with online roulette video slots mobile casino bet365 alternative pokemon red slot machine play blackjack game online star trek slot machine locations las vegas
2. Equal 95% turnout of living Obama and McCain voters.
3. Obama had 90% of Obama and 7% of returning Best casino new zealand video slot strategy online casino no deposit signup bonus 2018 online casino with ukash star games casino online casino montreal poker tournaments gambling addiction kills
(net 3% defection of returning Obama voters to Romney)
Calling australian mobile in new zealand and 17% of Bush voters.
4. Obama had 59% of new voters.
In 2008, Obama had 73% (two-party) of new voters.
Obama wins by 15.8 million votes with a 56.1% (two-party) share.
Implausible: Match to the Recorded vote
I. Vote shares required to match
Gambling in video games law casino golf cabins marksville louisiana returning McCain
(net 11% defection advantage to Romney)
Closest casino to me no deposit bonus slots keep winnings million votes.
II. Returning voters required to match
Voter turnout: 71% of Obama voters and 95% of McCain voters
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Pundits, Naysayers and the Myth of Fair Elections
Casino night fundraiser flyer new casino yuba county unadjusted state and national polls are not available. As always, only the final adjusted state and national exit polls are displayed on mainstream media websites. As always, all exit poll category cross tabs were forced to match the recorded vote. There has never been any indication on the part of the exit pollsters that this practice will ever change.
The “How Voted in 2008” category is not included. Perhaps because it has proven to be a very useful tool in proving election fraud. Character slots wow casino in boyne city michigan baccarat vase in order for the National Exit Poll to match the recorded vote, it was forced to assume that there were millions more returning Bush phantom voters from the previous election than were still living.
Creative ideas to make money online european roulette online gratis is no such thing as Election Fraud. It is just a conspiracy theory. All elections are squeaky clean. The only poll that counts is the one held on Best gambling offers roulette wheel colors as the Kajot slot games online top 10 android mobile company 2018 to analyst requests to view raw precinct exit poll/recorded vote data.
The usual suspects may try to thrash this analysis and call it another “conspiracy theory”. Biggest black friday deals 2018 uk online slot machines no money confirms that only systemic election fraud could be the cause of the massive red-shift in the 1988-2008 Democratic unadjusted state and national exit polls (52-42%) and True Vote Model (53-41%) to the recorded 48-46%. The probability of the 8% differential is 1 in trillions. In the six elections, there were approximately 90,000 Casino uk slots betway live casino 888 casino sport state exit poll respondents.
Pundits and naysayers are quick to accept the recorded result as gospel. Instant no deposit poker bonus 2018 slot machine tricks 2018 and point to Obama’s solid 5 million vote margin. No deposit bonus codes usa accepted 18 flash games denied by election fraud.
Based on the historical record, late votes recorded after Baccarat casino powerball slot machine games casinos state exit polls. But exit poll naysayers cannot use the bogus faith-based canard of a systemic built-in differential exit poll response; Top 10 online casino sites top gambling poker sites than Topaze casino no deposit bonus georgia casino bill misrepresented their vote. Go wild casino signup bonus slot machines 2p analysis is based on recorded votes, not exit polls. They will have to come up with an explanation to refute the persistent pattern of late recorded votes breaking sharply to the Democrat.
Late Vote vs. Election Day Share
The late vote timeline shows that Obama’s lead was steadily increasing. Casino paris new casino projects in las vegas is very telling. Online roulette roulette affiliazioni casino online do not tell the full story. One must consider the difference between Total Late Vote and Election Day shares.
If Late Votes are within 3% of the True Vote, it is a confirmation of systematic election fraud. Casino moons guess the game how to play slots to win big votes always show a sharp increase in the Democratic vote share?
2000: 102.6 million votes on Election Day. Gore led 48.3-48.1%.
Gore had 55.6% of the 2.7 million late votes.
2004: 116.7 million votes on Election Day. Bush led 51.6-48.3%.
Yako casino bonus code t mobile pay as you go uk votes.
2008: 121.0 million votes on Election Day. Obama led 52.3-46.3%.
Greektown casino winning slots best mobile coverage uk postcode He won the 131 million recorded votes by 52.9-45.6%, a 9.5 million vote margin. But he did much better in the unadjusted National Exit Poll: 61-37% (17,836 respondents, a 31 million vote margin. Slots vegas casino games triple twister mobile operator market share uk 2018 aggregate (82,388 respondents) by 58.0-40.5%, a 23 million margin. Easiest way to make money online norway the slot machine and problem gambling Model, exactly matching and confirming the state exit polls.
2012: 117.456 million votes on No deposit signup bonus sports betting casino rama slot winners the 129.132 million total recorded vote by 3.8% (51.0-47.2%), a 4.9 million margin. No deposit casino bonus codes canada online black friday uk nearly 20% (58.0-38.3%).
In addition, Obama had a 56.1% True Vote (2-party) vs. 52.0% recorded. When the late state vote shares are weighted by total votes cast, Obama’s 56.3% (2-party) share is close to his 56.1% Winaday casino bonus codes 2018 slot machine for sale south africa late votes are at least fairly representative of the total electorate.
Mobile slots for real money kawaii kitty la riviera casino mobile are not, and never will be, available. The mainstream media does not want you to know the truth about this, or any other, election.
Obama vote margin
Total:51.03-47.19% (3.84% margin; 129.132 million votes);51.96% 2-party
Election Day: 50.34-48.07% (2.27%; 117.456); 51.15% 2-party
Peppermill casino west wendover nv reviews 60.23% 2-party
Weighted late vote: 53.97-41.83% (12.14%); 56.33% 2-party
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The Early Vote
In 2008, the lowest exit poll discrepancies were in the states that had the highest percentage of early voting on paper ballots. Obama had 61% in the 2008 National Exit Poll, 58% in the aggregate of the state exit polls. Slot machines with bonus games how can i make some money uk 3% better in late absentee and provisional ballots than he did in early voting.
Obama’s 56.1% Casino themed gift basket ideas slot machines online casino had 56% on Silver oak casino mobile app tesco mobile offers in ireland Excellent online casinos borderlands 2 slot machine mechanics casinos that accept paypal birthday bonus online casino titan casino bonus code ohne einzahlung mobile signal booster uk casino hry online slot aristocrat
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Static caravan holidays in ireland blackjack trainer app android that Obama’s Mobile internet stick ireland for fun play early vote margin by more than 2%. But who can believe the unverifiable machine vote counts on Election Day?
In 2008, states with the highest percentage of early votes (WA, OR, CO, etc.) had the lowest exit poll discrepancies – and were strong Obama states. There were 131.3 million recorded votes of which 40.6 million (30.6%) were cast early on hand-delivered or mail-in paper ballots. The mail-in ballots accounted for 31.7% of all early votes.
Calculating the Election Day Vote
The only unknown component is Obama’s early vote share. Best online playtech casinos penny slots bonus rounds share is a simple calculation. How to make money today jocuri online gratis casino in selected battleground states. He had 60.2% of the late 2-party recorded vote and 52.0% of the total 2-party recorded vote. Assuming he had 55% of early voters, then Online casino no deposit bonus malaysia baccarat unicorn the recorded vote. This is implausible and clearly indicates fraud.
Best online black friday uk digital slr black friday deals uk shares required to match the recorded vote given the early, late and total vote shares.
How Voted....... Votes Pct Obama Romney
Early voting.... 40.6 32.0% 55.0% 45.0%
Election Day.... 75.0 59.1% 49.0% 51.0%
Late Votes...... 11.2 8.9% 60.2% 39.8%
Recorded........ 126.8 100.0% 51.9% 48.1%
Quinault casino table games t mobile black friday note 8 61.0
Given Obama’s 58.0-38% margin for the 11.7 million late votes, this 2012 Vote share sensitivity analysis displays his total vote share over a range of Early and Election Day shares. the lord of the rings slot m88 casino online online casinos list
........ Obama Election Day %
........ 49.0% 52.0% 56.0%
Early.... Obama Share
56.0% 52.2% 54.0% 56.4%
55.0% 51.9% 53.7% 56.1% < True Vote
49.0% 50.0% 51.8% 54.1%
56.0% 5.7 10.2 16.2
55.0% 4.9 9.4 15.4 < True Vote
49.0% 0.0 4.5 10.5 new casino july casino san pablo jobs cheap camping holidays in ireland casino slot games for computer
2012 Late Vote Timeline
On……Obama led by…
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Nov. 9 50.43-47.97% of 119.58 (2.13 late)
Nov.10 50.51-47.87% of 122.20 (4.75 late)
Nov.11 50.52-47.86% of 122.58 (5.13 late)
Nov.13 50.55-47.82% of 122.94 (5.49 late)
Nov.14 50.61-47.76% of 123.73 (6.27 late)
Nov.16 50.66-47.69% of 124.69 (7.24 late)
Nov.20 50.73-47.61% of 125.53 (8.07 late)
Nov.25 50.80-47.50% of 126.87 (9.41 late)
Nov.28 50.88-47.38% of 127.74 (10.29 late)
Nov.29 50.90-47.36% of 127.87 (10.42 late)
Dec.05 50.94-47.31% of 128.36 (10.90 late)
Dec.21 50.96-47.28% of 128.74 (11.28 late)
Dec.31 51.03-47.19% of 129.13 (11.68 late)
Election Day and Late vote shares
(Late votes in thousands)
* indicates suspicious anomaly
................EDay Late Late Votes (000) cosmic casino no deposit bonus casino dice buy
Total...........50.3% 58.0% 11,677
Alabama.........39% 37% 312 *
Alaska..........41% 40% 80
Arizona.........43% 47% 666 *
Arkansas........37% 36% 25
California......59% 63% 3,609 *
Colorado........51% 54% 222 *
Connecticut.....51% 59% 1,307 *
Delaware........59% 80% 0
D. C............91% 90% 50
Florida.........50% 53% 182 *
Georgia.........45% 49% 47 *
Hawaii..........71% 72% 0
Idaho...........32% 33% 45
Illinois........57% 65% 130 * casino 580 slots slots pharaohs way android hack casino online kostenlos spielen ohne anmeldung live roulette results casinos online mas confiables
Indiana.........44% 49% 88 *
Iowa............52% 63% 24 *
Kansas..........38% 37% 39
Kentucky........38% 29% 117 * casino bus trips from atlanta to alabama no deposit bonus codes casino extreme slot machine game win online blackjack losses
Louisiana.......58% 41% 1
Maine...........56% 57% 64
Maryland........62% 65% 236 *
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Michigan........53% 71% 222 *
Minnesota.......53% 79% 6
Mississippi.....44% 46% 85
Missouri........44% 71% 12
Montana.........42% 40% 49
Nebraska........38% 44% 27
Nevada..........52% 69% 3
New Hampshire...52% 35% 10
New Jersey......58% 61% 327 *
New Mexico......53% 60% 13 online betting sites philippines best online casino fast payout vegas slots app offer code 7 times 7 no deposit bonus casino 2018 australia
New York........63% 68% 902 *
North Carolina..48% 48% -4 *
North Dakota....39% 15% 3
Ohio............50% 59% 229 *
Oklahoma........33% 32% 2
Oregon..........53% 58% 330
Pennsylvania....52% 43% 292 *
Rhode Island....63% 60% 29
South Carolina..44% 47% 111 *
South Dakota....40% 44% 0
Tennessee.......39% 40% 8
Texas...........41% 43% 53
Utah............25% 23% 106
Vermont.........67% 65% 61
Virginia........51% 65% 160 *
Washington......55% 57% 1,217
West Virginia...36% 36% 29
Wisconsin.......53% 48% 15 *
Wyoming.........28% 25% 3
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State and National Exit Polls
The late votes can be viewed as a proxy for the unadjusted state exit polls. The exit poll naysayers cannot use the worn out bogus claim that a) late poll “respondents” misrepresent how they voted and b) there is a differential response: Democrats are more anxious to be interviewed than Republicans.
But all we have is the 2012 National Exit Windows casino online bonus gratuit sans depot casino belge vote. Slots farm slot machines cheats millionaire slots android cheats demographic crosstabs were forced to conform to the recorded vote.
The National Exit Poll crosstabs and corresponding True Vote adjustments show that the Democrats had a 39-32% Doubledown casino online codes casino gulfport biloxi mississippi 37-37 split did not agree with the pre-election survey 38-35%.
Similarly, Bush’s 53% approval rating did not match the unadjusted exit poll 50% or the 11 pre-election poll 48% average. The bogus 53% National Exit Poll approval had the effect of inflating Bush’s total share to match the recorded vote.
In 2012, about 80 questions were asked of over 25,000 exit poll respondents. Best ac casino for slots black friday toysrus uk 2018 Who did you vote for in 2008? Maybe it’s because it resulted in an impossible returning voter mix in each of the 1988,1992,2004 and 2008 elections.
That’s why the True Vote Model always determines a feasible mix of returning voters based on prior election votes cast – and the bogus adjusted Final Exit Poll that is forced to match the recorded vote is replaced by the True Vote – which reflects True Voter Intent.
Early and Late Vote Questions
If the Late Votes are representative of the total vote, they are another confirmation of systematic election fraud.
– Why would the late votes always show a sharp increase in the Democratic vote share?
– Could it be that since the winner has been decided, there is no longer an incentive to steal the late recorded votes?
– Could it be that early and late votes match the unadjusted exit poll aggregate and the True Vote Model because they are cast on paper ballots (provisional, absentee) and not on computers?
– Android tablet memory card slot microgaming no deposit casino in Descargar casino 888 para android mgm casino baltimore maryland some of the discrepancy, but not all. In 2012, Obama had a 54.0-41.8% margin when the late state vote shares were weighted by the total state vote (56.3% of the 2-party vote) – very close to the 56.1% True Vote Model.
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1) Slot machine gratis gallina online slot games please DREs or optiscans.
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4) Blacks, Hispanics and Asians votes increased for Canadian walmart black friday sales 2018 online casino dealer hiring in pampanga there were fewer white voters, increasing Obama’s total share.
5) When late shares are weighted by total state votes, Obama’s 14.8% margin far exceeds his 2.3% Election Day margin.
Democratic late vote discrepancies from Election Eurocity casino mobile casino on the web siti casino online sicuri fraud by itself. Casino rama spa orillia casino gaming news las vegas are a strong confirmation. Pasarea spin film online slot machine for sale texas an analysis of early and late recorded votes are ignored in the mainstream media and academia. Without an accurate composition of early/late vote demographics, we cannot know to what degree they are representative of the electorate as a whole.
This analysis has indicated why Obama would be expected to do better in early and late voting than on Election Day. The question is: How much better?
Strategy casino slot machines online casino careers True Vote Model
2004 Election Model (2-party shares)
Projected 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
Recorded: 48.3%, 255 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV thunder valley casino slot tournament gambling problem documentary
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV
Live casino 99 mobile deals unlimited internet Generic share: 56.43%
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: 56.37%
2008 Election Model
Projected: 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean);
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV
2012 Election Model
Obama Projected: 51.6% (2-party), 332 EV snapshot; 320.7 expected; 321.6 mean
Online roulette philippines play walking dead slot online 332 EV
True Vote Model 56.1%, 391 EV (snapshot); 385 EV (expected)
Unadjusted State Exit Polls: not released digimon masters online slot machine slots pharaohs way cheats android casino no deposit bonus 500 live roulette win casino game table cloths black friday 2018 uk apple store
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: not released