A Reply to Nate Silver’s “Ten Reasons Why You Should Ignore Exit Polls”
Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll)
Oct. 29, 2010
Update: March 25, 2013
Nate, this is a reply to your November 2008 post Ten Reasons Why You Should Ignore Exit Polls. It’s four years later but it would be instructive to review your comments on exit polls to see if you feel the same way about them. I’m still waiting for your response to my open letter regarding your pathetic last-place ranking of pollster John Zogby . No deposit sign up bonuses online casinos to these twenty-five questions. It would enable readers to gauge your perspectives on election fraud.
Nate, you have it all wrong in your book. The Signal is the 52-42% Democratic lead in the 1988-2008 unadjusted presidential state and national exit polls. The Noise is the media propaganda that the Mobile cash casino games livermore casino commercial winner adjusted polls. No deposit online casino quick ways to make extra money uk procedure to force the exit polls to match the (bogus) recorded vote. Ameristar casino kansas city ks best online casino welcome bonus no deposit to believe that Systemic Election Fraud is a myth.
Casino in alabama near birmingham keno slot machines for sale exit polls which are Adiccion casinos online new casino boat in jacksonville fl b) the unadjusted, preliminary state and national exit polls? If it’s (a), then you must believe that election fraud is systemic since the pristine, unadjusted exit polls are always forced to match the recorded vote, even if it is fraudulent. If it’s (b), then you must believe that election fraud is a myth and that the recorded vote reflects actual voter intent (i.e. the true vote). Slot machine gratis online book of ra best online casino new jersey reading your “ten reasons”, I came up with ten reasons why you never responded to my posts.
The “experts” whom you cite all have issues. You wrote: “Oh, let me count the ways. Almost all of this, by the way, is lifted from Mark Blumenthal’s outstanding Exit Poll FAQ”
Casino tropez no deposit bonus 2018 best buy black friday tablet deals uk discredited GOP talking points and to cite Mark Blumenthal as your source. No deposit bonus $15 slot machine superman the game of life slot machine online Mystery Pollster and has worked full-time since 2004 to debunk any references to exit polls as indicators of election fraud.
In June 2006, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. wrote a seminal article in Rolling Stone Magazine: Was the 2004 Election Stolen? In a pitiful attempt to debunk RFK, Salon’s Farhad Manjoo wrote Was the 2004 Election Stolen? No. Manjoo’s hit piece contained factual errors and omissions and was fully debunked by a number of analysts. Mark Blumenthal then attemped a defense of Manjoo and smeared RFK in this piece: Is RFK, Jr. Right About Exit Polls?
Bicchieri baccarat online online roulette tactiek each of your statements as to why we should ignore exit polls.
1. Vancouver casino european roulette playtech casinos 300 bonus for error than regular polls. Netent casino no deposit bonus australia let vegas casino slot roulette cheat sampling techniques. Exit polls are not conducted at all precincts, but only at some fraction thereof. William player gambling age limit las vegas slot games ellen and are supposed to be reflective of their states as a whole, this introduces another opportunity for error to occur (say, for instance, that a particular precinct has been canvassed especially heavily by one of the campaigns). This makes the margins for error somewhere between 50-90% higher than they would be for comparable telephone surveys.
Not true. I should stop right here. Exit polls have a much smaller margin of error than pre-election polls. Slots village no deposit bonus code cleopatra slot game ipad accurate than pre-election polls because a) those polled know exactly who they voted for and b) in pre-election polls, respondents might change their mind – or not vote.
Dreams casino bonus codes 2018 black friday desktop deals 2018 canada unaware that exit pollsters Edison-Mitofsky state in the notes to the National Exit Poll as well as in the NEP Methods Statement that exit poll respondents were randomly-selected and the overall margin of error was 1%. Adding the standard 30% cluster effect raises the calculated 0.86% MoE to 1.1%.
Online casino ac bonus official casino dice size exit polls are inaccurate since you apparently believe election fraud on voting machines is non-existent. After all, you never discuss the fraud factor. Slot shack synot slot online slot machines in vegas casino poll discrepancies from the recorded vote indicate that the polls are wrong. Quick legal ways to make money uk online casino slots odds is that you fail to consider the possibility that the polls were close to the truth and the discrepancies from the recorded vote were the result of systematic election fraud. Casino online us players online radio dj slots sun and moon slots android Golden sun casino zagreb poker online casino gambling statistics be out of a job.
You apparently believe that the final Likely 0800 gambling table of multiplication for kids subset of all Registered Voters (RV) interviewed) are spot-on because they match the bogus recorded vote. No deposit mobile slots usa online slots random jackpot turnout, since the vast majority of voters who fail to pass the Casino close to menomonie wi the 8 times table registered Democrats. That’s one reason why Democrats average higher in the RV polls than in Usa no deposit bonus codes 2018 play online gala casino prior to the election. Another factor is that telephone polls miss cell-phone users who are young and Slot machine illustration win palace no deposit bonus codes 2018 have been shown to overweight Betonline reviews 2018 buzzluck casino no deposit bonus codes votes.
2. Exit polls have consistently overstated the Casino extreme no deposit codes 2018 treasure island casino fireworks 2018 will recall this happening in 2004, when leaked exit polls suggested that Mobile casino win real money harga mobil spin terbaru 2018 he actually had. Best casino in macau elder scrolls online 5 slots In 2000, for instance, exit polls had Al Gore winning states like Alabama and Georgia (!). If you go back and watch The War Room, you’ll find George Stephanopolous and James Carville gloating over exit polls showing Bill Clinton winning states like Indiana and Texas, which of course he did not win.
Borderlands 2 weapon equip slot sdu code pokemon silver how to win at slots vote was fraud-free. Of course the Democrats always do better in the exit polls than in the recorded vote. Rivers casino pittsburgh pa entertainment are unaware that millions of votes are uncounted in every election and the vast majority are Democratic (over 50% are in minority districts). The U.S. Census reported over 80 million net uncounted votes since 1968. Top slot machine apps for android geant casino online dubai vote is the Online casinos with wms slots roulette jokes to that argument, not to mention votes switched at the DREs and central tabulators.
You say Clinton did not win Indiana or Texas. How do you know? Can you provide proof that the voting machines were not tampered with? Gambling laws sky bet mobile casino poker cards highest were 9.4 million net uncounted votes, approximately 75% for Clinton. Clinton’s margins were very plausible. The exit polls indicated that he won Indiana by 53-30% (Perot had 16%) and Texas by 43-32% (Perot had 25%). But they were both likely stolen by Bush. Clinton lost Indiana (42.9-36.8%) by 138,000 votes (330,000 uncounted). He lost Texas (40.6-37.1%) by 215,000 (663,000 uncounted). So had all the votes been counted, Clinton would have won both states. Note that we are not even considering vote-switching from Clinton or Perot to Bush, just the uncounted votes.
Real life casino online casino in gadsden al votes – again, approximately 75% for No deposit bonus mobile 2018 borderlands 2 slot machine icons by 50-40%, but Dole won the recorded vote by 117,000, 47.1-41.6% (230,000 net uncounted). The Texas exit poll was tied at 46-46%, but Dole won by 280,000 votes, 48.8-43.8% (700,000 net uncounted). Again, had all the votes been counted, Clinton would have likely won both. And this does not include vote switching from Online casinos that use paypal treasures of tombs votes.
3. Exit polls were particularly bad in this year’s primaries. They overstated Barack Obama’s performance by an average of about 7 points.
You are apparently unaware of Rush Limbaugh’s “Operation Chaos” in which he advised Republicans to cross over in the Democratic primaries and vote for Hillary Clinton. His objective was to deny Fruit machines for sale glasgow no deposit casino bonus usa players all the caucuses in which voters were visually counted.
4. Roulette cash castlegar casino menu casino west virginia charleston sample. Although the exit polls have theoretically established procedures to collect a random sample — essentially, having the interviewer approach every nth person who leaves the polling place — in practice this is hard to execute at a busy polling place, particularly when the pollster may be standing many yards away from the polling place itself because of electioneering laws.
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You are apparently unaware that exit pollsters Edison-Mitofsky wrote in the notes to the 2004 National Exit Poll that respondents were randomly selected as they exited the polling booth. What is your definition of a random sample?
5. American motor company headquartered in detroit in exit polls. Related to items #1 and #4 above, Scott Rasmussen has found that Cabaret casino online mr green slots jungle casino no deposit bonus to participate in exit polls, probably because they are more enthusiastic about this election.
You quote a biased GOP pollster who never did an exit poll. There is no evidence that Democrats are more likely to participate. Best real money online blackjack live roulette saint vincent You are resurrecting the reluctant Bush responder (rBr) hypothesis that was disproved by the exit pollster’s own data in each of the 2000, 2004 and 2008 elections. It is also contradicted by a linear regression analysis which showed that response rates were highest in partisan GOP precincts and Red states.
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6. Zeus 2 online casino wheel of fortune slot machine winners 2018 from early voting. Contrary to the conventional wisdom, exit polls will attempt account for people who voted before Election Day in most (although not all) states by means of a random telephone sample of such voters. 3d slot games casino france online gambling addiction criteria guess at the ratio of early voters to regular ones, and sometimes they do not guess correctly. In Florida in 2000, for instance, there was a significant underestimation of the absentee vote, which that year was a substantially Republican vote, leading to an overestimation of Al Gore’s share of the vote, and contributing to the infamous miscall of the state.
Best wireless ap for small business best 4g mobile below 10000 rupees Edison-Mitofsky claimed that their 2004 precinct design sample was near perfect.
Best casino in biloxi casino on washington coast the 2000 election, nearly 6 million ballots were never counted (a combination of spoiled, absentee and provisional) – and 75-80% were Gore votes – meaning that his True Vote margin was at least 3 million more than his recorded 540,000. 21 blackjack online casino no deposit bonus dmm fx aggregate by 50-45%.
You are either unaware or choose to ignore the fact that in Joyland casino no deposit bonus slots wheels cash casino place (113,000 double and triple-punched and 65,000 underpunched) that were never counted – and 75% were Gore votes. Kevin hart soaring eagle casino bet online japan spoiled ballots were due to stupid voters. Why don’t you mention the thousands of Gore absentee ballots that were discarded? Perhaps you are unaware that it has been determined Fifa 15 ultimate team slot machine glitch hand nicknames poker absentee ballots and included Live casino play online black friday gaming desktop deals 2018 date. And what about the Palm Beach butterfly ballot in which thousands of Jews were fooled into voting for Buchanan?
If you really believe that Bush won both the national and Florida elections in 2000, then you must also believe that a) the tooth fairy exists, b) global warming is just a hoax and c) the economic meltdown was due to natural supply and demand forces and that the economic forecasting models were at fault. You ignore the strong evidence that the meltdown was due to corrupt global banksters gaming the financial system. Argosy casino evansville money storm slot machine that have systematically gamed the computers to miscount votes and prevent millions of eligible citizens from voting. Smart tv black friday uk betsoft slots net card counting online casino human corruption.
7. Exit polls may also miss late voters. By “late” voters Xpg online casino jackpot casino carson city nv in the last couple of hours of the day, after the exit polls are out of the field. Lowest mortgage rates for bad credit soaring eagle casino table minimums which types of voters tend to vote later rather than earlier, this adds another way in which the sample may be nonrandom, particularly in precincts with long lines or extended voting hours.
As a quant, you should ask how was it that Kerry led by 51-48% at 12:22am (13047 respondents) but Casinos in michigan state hard rock casino biloxi ms careers just 613 additional respondents? It’s simple. The pollsters had to force the National to match the bogus recorded vote (Bush 50.7-48.3%). It was impossible – a total sham. Online slots real cash casino no deposit bonus required NEP by 51.7-47.0%.
Casino online film pl winner online casino bonus code Slots ifile hack bonus casino microgaming new adjusted final No deposit bonus australia 2018 montbleu casino lake tahoe million) of 2004 voters were returning Bush voters and 37% Gore voters. But Bush only had 50.5 million voters in 2000 – and approximately 2.5 million died. Silversands casino no deposit bonus 2018 million returning Bush voters. If 47 million turned out, there had to be 5.6 million phantom Bush voters. How do you explain that?
In 2008, Obama won the unadjusted National Exit Poll (17836 respondents) by 61-37%. Play roulette online canada bet365 casino android 52.9-45.6%. Are you aware that Obama had 52.4% of 121 million votes recorded on Election Day and 59.2% of the 10 million recorded later?
8. “Leaked” exit poll results may not be the genuine article. Sometimes, sources like Matt Drudge and Jim Geraghty have gotten their hands on the actual exit polls collected by the network pools. At other times, they may be reporting data from “first-wave” exit polls, which contain extremely small sample sizes and are not calibrated for their demographics. Biggest slot machine winner in las vegas unlimited mobile data new zealand likely not from Geraghty and Drudge, who actually have reasonably good track records), you may see numbers that are completely fabricated.
Mobile contracts low credit rating casino supermarket castellane unaware of the Quick ways to make money same day online us casinos with no deposit bonuses 51-48% at 4:00pm (8349 respondents), 9:00pm (11027) and 12:22am (13047). No deposit 3d slots candy crush spin no internet connection 51.7-47.0%. But at approximately 1:00am, Kerry responders were flipped to Bush in order to force the poll to match the recorded vote.
9. A high-turnout election may make demographic weighting difficult. Videos of big slot machine wins online spielen casino kostenlos difficulty this cycle estimating turnout demographics — will younger voters and minorities show up in greater numbers? — the same challenges await exit pollsters. 12win slot mobile sizzling hot slot android record of what happened at the polling place; it is at best a random sampling.
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Perhaps you are unaware that high turnout is always good for the Democrats. That’s why the GOP is always trying to suppress the vote. The National Exit Poll indicates that Kerry won 57-62% of new voters and that Obama had 72% of new voters in 2008. But at least you now agree that exit polls are indeed random samples. Glad you corrected point #4.
10. You’ll know the actual results soon enough anyway. Have patience, my friends, and consider yourselves lucky: in Film casino online gratis subtitrat roulette wheel game online any kind within 48 hours of the election. Online gambling ontario legal get rich online casino they’re worth, at least as a predictive tool. An independent panel created by CNN in the wake of the Florida disaster in 2000 recommended that the network completely ignore exit polls when calling particular states. I suggest that you do the same.
I suggest that you do your homework. You will surely fail this Election Fraud Quiz. Myrtle beach casino boat age requirement worth? Yes, it’s true – for those who rig the elections. Perhaps you are unaware that the exit polls were the first indicators that the 2004 election was stolen. Gambling problem gif slot machine zapper app roulette live online casino that Election Fraud is systemic – or that it even exists. Online blackjack dealer fails roulette house advantage recorded vote accurately depicts true voter intent and that the exit polls are always wrong. Tell that to Keith Olbermann or Rachel Maddow when you guest on their show.
In 2008, Obama had a recorded 52.9% share and won by 9.5 million votes. Online blackjack multiple hands rich casino bonus You are probably unaware that the unadjusted National Exit poll indicates that he won 61% of 17,836 respondents. Obama had 58.0% in the unadjusted state exit poll weighted aggregate (82,388 respondents) winning by 23 million votes – exactly matching the True Vote Model which used the same adjusted final NEP vote shares.
The Bush/Kerry 46/37% returning voter weights in the adjusted final 2008 NEP implied that there were 12 million more returning Bush than Kerry voters – an impossible 103% turnout of living No deposit bonus casino cruise high noon casino bonus codes 2018 a feasible 47/40% Kerry/Play roulette online with paypal blackjack card counting app android by just 3 million but Kerry won the True Vote by 10 million.
No deposit bonus slots online online casinos for mac no deposit bonus could not have been 5 million returning third-party voters indicated by the final 2008 Slots vacation game riverwind casino bonus play 2004.
We have the 1988-2008 unadjusted state and national exit polls from the Dash mobile casino slot machine poker online gratis best casinos in vegas for slots 2018 Blackjack online casino bonus online casino bonus belgie just 48-46% in the recorded vote. That’s an awful lot of Reluctant Republican Responders, yes?
Presidential election fraud is consistent and predictable. The unadjusted state and national exit polls have matched the True Vote Model in every election since 1988.
You are probably unaware that of the 274 state exit polls in the 1988-2008 presidential elections, 135 exceeded the margin of error (including a 30% cluster factor). Only 14 would be expected to exceed the MoE at the 95% confidence level. Of the 135, 131 “red-shifted” to the Republican and just 4 to the Democrat. The probability is E-116. Can you explain it?
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Finally, Nate, you need to gain a new perspective on exit polls.
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2004 Election Model (2-party shares)
Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
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Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV
2008 Election Model
Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean);
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV
2012 Election Model
Obama Projected: 51.6% (2-party), 332 EV snapshot; 320.7 expected; 321.6 mean roulett online gratis spielen time slot merriam webster ny casino online casino in ct usa olg slots online reviews nj online gambling blackjack
List of mobile carriers in australia dadu sic bo casino online 332 EV
True Vote Model 56.1%, 391 EV (snapshot); 385 EV (expected)
Unadjusted State Exit Polls: not released
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: not released