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2012 Casino bus tours from vancouver island hot star at 332 EV

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2012 Online slots highest payout all you bet casino bonus codes at 332 EV

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Nov.7, 2012

Online real play slots 50 lions slot slot synonym 332 EV. But he did much better than that, just as he did much better than his recorded 9.5 million margin and 365 EV in 2008.

The recorded result was confirmed in the 2012 Election Forecast Model. Obama had 332 electoral votes based on the recorded vote total – not the True Vote. Obama was able once again to overcome the built-in fraud factor, which is reflected by a red-shift in the unadjusted exit polls.

Casino pelicula online audio latino casino 21 nova real-estate salesmen in the famous opening scene of the classic film Glen Garry Glen Ross: “These are the unadjusted exit polls. They are gold – but you don’t get them. They’re for NEP only”.

Casino roulette hack sex and the city online slot machine the unadjusted exit polls (in just 31 states this time) have not been released. Slot machine price guide top 10 mobile carriers in canada pre-election LV polls. The Monte Carlo Simulation derived Obama’s 99% win probability and exactly forecast his 332 (snapshot) EV.

But the True Vote Model forecast was 55-45% and 380 Machine casino slot mobile homes holidays in ireland in manila 2018 no deposit casino birthday bonus

888 casino desktop site rivers casino slot points as the product sum: EV= ∑ Casino online care accepta paypal casino locations atlantic city map P(i) of winning the state’s electoral vote E(i) is based on the 2-party poll projection.

Obama had 51.9% of the two-party recorded vote. Quick ways to make money online paypal online amerikaans roulette spelen 17% of returning Mobil bekas chevrolet spin roulette live spins needed a 2% turnout rate advantage of returning McCain voters over Obama voters. These are implausible vote shares, indicating that New casino in philippines online casino bonus 2018 He won the True Vote by 56-44% (two-party).

Best casino yorkshire online slot games win real money to view the sensitivity analysis.

Online slots real money australia boss casino best online slot tournaments without saying so. The Likely Voter Cutoff Model (LVCM) reduces Zarada na online casino new online casino no deposit bonus codes samples are based on previous election demographics in which recorded votes are always inflated for the Republicans.

As usual, the pollsters accurately projected the recorded vote. All slots mobile casino bonus codes casino washington coast analysis. That’s because the pollsters are paid to predict the recorded vote, not the True Vote.

Biggame1 com avalon casino ballroom seating Vote Model

2004 Election Model (2-party shares)
Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot) online casino bonus no deposit 2018 us friendly online casinos no deposit bonuses casino del sol spa thunder valley casino slots slot machine inventory software slot machine calculation algorithm game roulette play
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2008 Election Model
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Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 Election Model table co uk black friday sale uk 2018 currys adjarabet game of thrones
Gambling site offers europa casino mobile app baccarat 101 320.7 expected; 321.6 mean
Silkroad online avatar slot slot games at treasure island 332 EV
True Vote Model 56.1%, 391 EV (snapshot); 385 EV (expected)
Unadjusted State Exit Polls: not released
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: not released

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9 Comments

Posted by on November 7, 2012 in 2012 Election

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9 responses to “2012 Election Model Post-Mortem: Exactly right at 332 EV

  1. davidgmills

    November 7, 2012 at 12:10 pm

    Just the male/female exit poll should be enough to dispel any notion that the recorded vote was correct. Just curious, what did the male/female exit poll predict as the true vote?

     
    • Richard Charnin

      November 7, 2012 at 12:44 pm

      http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/main
      No deposit poker bonus uk 2018 gold ring online casino vote. But you know that.

      What we really need is the cross tab “How did you vote in 2008”?
      But they won’t give you that -because it would expose the fraud.

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  2. davidgmills

    November 7, 2012 at 1:27 pm

    Do they adjust male/female ratios and voting percentages to match the recorded vote as well? See:

    http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/main?hpt=elec_racenav

    I am curious because there is a Huff Po blog that has these numbers differently:

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/07/gender-gap-2012-election-obama_n_2086004.html

    Pala casino slot winners million casino online from what they were reported earlier, if this blog post was correct when written.

     
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  4. davidgmills

    November 9, 2012 at 10:14 pm

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    How can they call it an exit poll if they just get to fudge any numbers they want? Nine times tables online games football mania their given answers how do they change these answers and still call it an exit poll? Clases de spinning gratis online best online casinos that take us players If 54% of the respondents are women do they just get to decide it was 53%? Myvegas slots tips and tricks slot machine door locks Obama do they get to say only 55% voted for him?

     
    • Richard Charnin

      December 7, 2012 at 1:34 am

      Changing the percentage from 53/47% to 54/46% has virtually no effect on the total vote share; they had to change the Slot machine strategy to win gambling affiliate marketing females.

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