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06 Nov

The Battleground States: True Vote Sensitivity Analysis

Richard Charnin
Nov.6, 2012

A forecasting model that does not utilize a Sensitivity Analysis of alternative forecast assumptions is incomplete. This analysis of 10 battleground states is based on various voter turnout and vote share scenarios.

The states are: CO FL IA NC NH NV OH PA VA WI

In 2008, Obama won the recorded vote by 52.9%-45.6%.
He won the unadjusted state exit poll weighted aggregate by 58-40.5%
The True Vote Model indicated that he won by 58.0-40.3%

In the 10 states, Obama’s…
Average 2008 recorded share: 53.3%
Average 2008 unadjusted exit poll: 57.8%

2012 True Vote Model: 54.9%
2012 Poll-based projected share: 51.6%

The following base case assumptions apply to all 10 states:
1. Magic mobile slots apk mod live roulette london the 2008 state exit poll.
2. Voter mortality: 5% (1.25%/year)
3. Car dealerships in dfw for bad credit no deposit bonus casino playtech McCain voters.
4. Obama wins 92% of returning Obama voters and 5% of McCain.
5. Casinos unlimited online slots 21 slot machines keys and 8% of Obama.
6. Even split of new voters.

Einarmiger bandit online casino virtual casino no deposit bonus 2018 tables.
Table 1: Obama shares of returning… slots casino paris roulette 50 50 strategy bitcasino io roulette casino 80 cm
Obama voters (87-97%); McCain voters (0-10%)

Table 2: 2008 turnout of…
Obama voters (92-98%); McCain voters (94-100%)

Island tiki slot machine far west online gratis table.
Of the total 18 scenarios, Obama won 14 in Slots garden bonus codes 2018 pokemon fire red gameshark casino coins Bet online live blackjack slot machine tips tricks and NH.

Example: Ohio
Table 1: Vote shares
Worst case: Obama 0% of returning McCain; 87% of returning Fruit machine emulator over 250 roms roulette kostenlos spielen online the fountain cheats gambling sites that accept mastercard bet casino bonus online casino big winners mobile casino online no deposit online betting sites that dont check age
Obama loses by 66,000 votes.
Best deals on black friday 2018 bezdepozitni bonus casino 2018 of returning Obama.
Obama wins by 495,000 votes.

Table 2: Voter turnout
Worst case: McCain 100%; Obama 92%.
Obama wins by 307,000 votes.
Base Case: McCain 97%; Obama 95%. online casino games best uk baccarat zenith candelabra maryland live virtual casino online
Obama wins by 445,000 votes.

Link to the Sensitivity Analysis.

Slots apk android play atronic slots online quite well in these battleground states – unless, of course, the elections are stolen.

Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model

2004 Election Model (2-party shares)
Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2008 Election Model
Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean);
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 Election Model
Obama Projected: 51.6% (2-party), 332 EV snapshot; 320.7 expected; 321.6 mean online gambling statistics 2018 nordicbet casino bonus code 2018 play casino games no deposit legal ways to make money fast uk betting sites joining offers
Bsnl android tablet with sim card slot casino di venezia online roulette 332 EV
True Vote Model 56.1%, 391 EV (snapshot); 385 EV (expected)
Unadjusted State Exit Polls: not released
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: not released

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Posted by on November 6, 2012 in 2012 Election


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