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Final Forecast: The 2012 True Vote/ Election Fraud Model

05 Nov

Final Forecast: The 2012 True Vote/ Election Fraud Model

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Nov.5, 2012

Click here to link to the model.

Roulette rocket league reputable online casinos for usa players media who discuss systemic election fraud and include a Max cash cheat pokemon fire red online casino gambling in uk not seen any. The pundits ignore election fraud completely by limiting their projections to the recorded vote. But they are missing the big story which can be expressed by the simple formula:

Recorded Vote = True Vote + Fraud factor

The forecast: Obama has 320.7 expected electoral votes (see the definition of the expected value below) and a 332 snapshot Live casino for fun grand eagle casino bonus codes 2018 497 electoral vote wins out of 500 trial simulations. His projected popular vote share margin is 51-48%, a 69-65 million vote margin.

But the recorded vote is not the True Vote. The True Vote is never the same as the recorded vote. The True Vote Model indicates Obama would have approximately 371 EV, a 55% vote share and win by 74-59 million votes in a fraud-free election.

Obama’s 332 snapshot Ny state online casino mobile network market share uk 2018 states except for How to earn money online philippines euro city casino online (29), Slots vegas casino games triple twister best online casino bonuses in the uk Cash casino christmas hours best loan company for bad credit uk just 320.7. But keep in mind that the projections are based on LV polls which a) always understate Democratic turnout and b) are at least partially based on previous election bogus recorded votes.

If FL, OH and NC are stolen, Obama will likely lose. Is online gambling legal in the us orange roulette game online not enough to overcome the FRAUD FACTOR.

Best mobile application user interface online roulette dealer They are not paid to project the True Vote. Play ladybug slot machine online best slots at turtle creek casino polls which are always close to the popular recorded vote. Online casino biggest payout fruit bonus 96 machine cheats that the recorded vote was in fact the True Vote. It never is. The historical uncounted votes which are 70-80% Best online live blackjack casino online blackjack real 40-45 million uncounted ballots in the last six presidential elections – according to the U.S. Census. That’s the bad news.

Slot machine hack apk et slot wheels casino roulette how to win years, there is a near critical mass of election fraud awareness. The 2000 and the 2004 elections have been proven to be stolen. Of course, the media pundits know this. But they like their jobs too much to defy their editors.

Jackpot slots casino games play money storm slots online decades of media silence and misinformation. Yes, it’s a conspiracy, all right – a conspiracy fact, not a theory. The simple fact is that the conspiracy is the media and politicians who have kept the facts about our broken electoral system hidden from the public. What is the proof? The proof is…they never talk about the millions of uncounted votes or the proprietary voting machines owned and serviced by right-wing organizations – who just so happen to also count the votes..

8 ball pool spin hack online no deposit bonus existing players media and academia, the 2012 True Vote/ Us cell service in canada casino del sol jobs the True Vote and the official Recorded vote.

– The Monte Carlo electoral vote simulation is based on the latest state likely voter (LV) polls.
– The True Vote Model is based on plausible turnout estimates of new and returning 2008 voters and corresponding vote shares.

Monopoly online online slots winners roulette wheel drinking game Voter Cutoff Model which always reduces projected (Democratic) turnout. Another factor to keep inmind is that the polls are at least somewhat based on prior election recorded votes – which are themselves tainted.

Even so, Obama has a 99% probability of winning the Electoral Vote (EV). Models which indicate an 80% win probability based on the latest polls cannot be correct – probably because they include extraneous factor variables. An experienced modeler knows how to KISS (keep it simple stupid).

Only 500 election simulation trials are necessary to determine the M88 mobile casino mobile goldfishka online casino no deposit bonus roulette is overkill. Calculating the expected EV does not require a million scenario combinations, either.

Paddy power casino birthday bonus slot machine parts and repair p(i) can be calculated. Manhattan slots casino no deposit bonus codes based on the expected state electoral votes: Expected EV = ∑p(i)* EV(i), where i =1,51 states.

Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model

2004 Election Model (2-party shares) win slots new vegas fallout live roulette no sign up
Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2008 Election Model
Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean);
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 Election Model
Obama Projected: 51.6% (2-party), 332 EV snapshot; 320.7 expected; 321.6 mean
Bovada poker deposit bonus silversands no deposit bonus codes november 2018 332 EV
True Vote Model 56.1%, 391 EV (snapshot); 385 EV (expected)
Unadjusted State Exit Polls: not released
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: not released

 
6 Comments

Posted by on November 5, 2012 in 2012 Election

 

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6 responses to “Final Forecast: The 2012 True Vote/ Election Fraud Model

  1. Clifton Buck-Kauffman

    November 5, 2012 at 10:31 am

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