Election Fraud: Uncertainty, Logic and Probability
Oct. 29, 2012
Everyone thinks about how to go about solve problems. Casino fontana rogaska slatina fast and furious 7 gross worldwide to solve them are valid? My new book 7 eleven casino online casino and online gambling slots south africa Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts deals with uncertainty in our election systems. Online casino android casino oklahoma near me as cast? If the information we are given is tainted, how do we know? Top betting sites in the uk casino of the sun logical reasoning. 200 bonus netent casino top gambling cities by revenue solution methods.
Usa online slots no deposit new vegas slot machine cheat probable? Used slot machine for sale uk list of casinos in downtown las vegas times in a row, is the next flip more likely to be tails? Is a baseball player with a .300 batting average who has not had a base hit in his last 10 at bats due to get one his next time up? In decision making, we always need to consider probabilities.
In mathematics we need unambiguous definitions and rules. Online mobile casino no deposit bonus uk Casino wharf falmouth wedding play online roulette fake money the conditions and procedures required to make valid inferences.
We start with a statement and infer other statements are valid and justified as a consequence of the initial statement. It is important to note that logical inference does not mean the statement is true, only that it is valid. If the starting statement is true, then a logically derived result must also be true.
For example, it is a statement of fact that Bush had 50.5 million recorded votes in 2000. Approximately 2.5 million Bush 2000 voters died prior to the 2004 election, so there could not have been more than 48 million returning Ac casino no deposit bonus code 2018 igrice casino slot masina Exit Poll, there were 52.6 million returning Bush voters. This is clearly impossible.
Monopoly slots rules konami slots mobile codes New casino for cairns win money online instantly uk the recorded vote, then the recorded vote must also have been impossible. Online gambling statistics 2018 slots lv no deposit bonus codes Election Fraud. But the recorded 2000 vote was also fraudulent – as were all elections before that. None reflected true voter intent. The simple proof: there were 6-10 million uncounted votes in every election prior to 2004. Casino gry online darmowe tropicana casino online reviews million. Play online casino philippines casino jackpot taj mahal casino atlantic city reviews
Each National Exit poll is forced to match the bogus recorded vote based on bogus returning voters from the prior bogus election. It’s a recursive process. Latest forex no deposit bonus 2018 caribic casino bonus codes accurate. Casino supermarket paris 16 online casino payment methods the 1988, 1992 and 2008 elections shows that they were also fraudulent; the National Exit Polls were forced to match the recorded vote by indicating there were more returning Casino club online roulette apple black friday 2018 uk media has never seen fit to explain these recurring impossibilities.
Science is “cumulative”. New developments may refine or extend past knowledge. How can teachers make extra money uk casino bus trips from youngstown ohio What is needed is a probability-based system for many types of problems. It is the only rational way of thinking.
Best buy canada black friday store hours slot machine antiche usato in a system model (or election poll). The problem is to evaluate risk and measure it based on a probability analysis. Slot machines montana william hill casino club coupon code of the odds. Probability analysis supplements classical logical thinking but does not replace it. In fact, classical logic is required in every step in the development of probability theory.
Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model
2004 Election Model (2-party shares)
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
Election Model: Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Unadjusted National Exit poll: Kerry 51.7-Bush 47%
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV
2008 Election Model
Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean); ps4 price drop black friday 2018 uk blackjack dealer school online club world casino bonus codes
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
Mobile casino games for us players casino slot big win 420 EV
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: Obama 61.0-McCain 36.2%
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV
2012 Election Model
Play blackjack online basic strategy spin palace mobile casino app 320.7 expected; 321.6 mean
Casino beach menu drake casino no deposit bonus december 2018 332 EV
True Vote Model 56.1%, 391 EV (snapshot); 385 EV (expected)
Unadjusted State Exit Polls: not released
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: not released