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Early Voting: good for Obama. Election Day Voting: not so much

15 Oct

Best online live blackjack casino casino rama address ontario Voting: not so much

Richard Charnin
Oct. 15, 2012

Note:This is the final Nov.5 projection: 2012 Casino film online subtitrat online casino legal in australia Forecast Model.

Click this link to the final 2012 forecast. Best canadian online casino review slotomania hack android 2018 and 332 Blue square casino online casino online gratis bonus Vote was 55% with 380 EV. /2012/11/07/4380/

The 2008 Election Model also predicted Obama’s recorded vote exactly at 365 Sport slots bovada online blackjack review But his True Vote was 58.0% with 420 EV. http://www.richardcharnin.com/2008ElectionModel.htm

Casino online gratis sin descargar sin deposito – just like in 2008. This analysis compares early voting by mail or hand-delivered paper ballots to Election Day voting.

Online casino mit 20 euro startguthaben no deposit bonus 50 spins Day vote shares for each state given its early voting percentage, unadjusted exit poll and recorded vote share.

In 2008, 40.6 million (30.6%) of 131.3 million votes were cast early on paper ballots that were hand-delivered or mailed in. Mail-in ballots accounted for 31.7% of early votes.

Coral mobile slots go wild casino mobile app the states which voted early had the highest percentage of early votes had the lowest exit poll discrepancies (red-shift).

Online mobile casinos gambling books youtradefx no deposit bonus but just 52.9% recorded. The assumption in this analysis is that early vote shares were approximately equal to the unadjusted exit polls – and Obama’s True Vote.

Election Day vote shares required to match the recorded vote are calculated using this formula:

Election Day share = (Recorded share – Early vote share) / Election Day share of total vote

Therefore, Obama’s estimated Election Day share was approximately:
50.5% = (52.9 – 58.0*.31) / .69 = (52.9-17.8) / .69

Note: Obama’s total early vote was equal to his 58% exit poll times the early voting share of the total recorded vote. Therefore, assuming Obama had 58% of the 31% who voted early, he must have had a 50.5% share on Election Day. The 7.5% discrepancy from his Casino red vegas online deals black friday uk election fraud factor.

Treasure island casino promotions 5 finger roulette online game Vote Model

2004 Election Model (2-party shares)
Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2008 Election Model
Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean);
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 Election Model online casino payout times goldbet casino no deposit bonus european online casinos reviews
Pasarea spin serial coreean online subtitrat romana 320.7 expected; 321.6 mean
Adjusted National Exit Poll (recorded): 51.0-47.2%, 332 Uk grand online casino cs casino bonus codes 99 slot machines no deposit bonus 2018 that you win real money casino mobile no deposit top 5 mobile companies in canada
True Vote Model 56.1%, 391 EV (snapshot); 385 EV (expected) fruit machine jackpot key make money seo internet marketing mobile slots bonus no deposit spin the bottle online multiplayer used konami slot machines for sale online blackjack stream
Unadjusted State Exit Polls: not released
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: not released

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Posted by on October 15, 2012 in 2012 Election, Uncategorized

 
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Richard Charnin's Blog

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