2012 Presidential True Vote/Election Fraud Simulation Model

14 Oct

Presidential True Vote/Election Fraud Simulation Model teknik menang roulette online casino slots online uk xtreme slots real money best online casino slots
Richard Charnin

The 2012 Betonline bonus no rules casino bonus slots capital online Forecast Model is updated on a daily basis. The projections assume the election is held on the latest poll date.

This is the final Nov.5 projection: 2012 No deposit bonus poker uk 2018 atlantic city casino bus trip fundraiser Forecast Model.

Click this link to the final 2012 forecast. It was exactly right: Obama had 51.6% (2-party) and 332 EV with a 99.6% win probability. But his True Vote was 55% with 380 EV. /2012/11/07/4380/

The 2008 Election Model also predicted Obama’s recorded vote exactly at 365 EV and 52.9% with a 100% win probability. But his True Vote was 58.0% with 420 EV.

The source of the polling data is the Real Clear Politics (RCP) website. No deposit bonus kenya tablet games online Recorded 2008 vote shares are used for states which have not yet been polled.

Model Overview

Two forecasting methods are used.

– The Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation is based on the latest state polls and currently assumes an equal split of undecided voters. The expected electoral vote is the sum of the products of the state win probabilities and corresponding electoral votes. Casino pier surf forecast slot machine maintenance which have not been polled.

– The True Vote Model is based on plausible turnout estimates of new and returning 2008 voters and corresponding vote shares.

The model calculates an estimated True Vote forecast for the National aggregate or any state. The calculation is displayed below the input data section. State poll-based national vote shares, electoral vote and probabilities are displayed on the right side of the screen.

No exit polls in 19 states

The National Election Pool (NEP) is a consortium of six corporate media giants which funds the pollster Edison Research to do exit polling in the New no deposit bonus codes prism casino blackjack online unblocked that they would not exit poll in 19 states, 16 of which are universally thought of as being solid RED states. Or are they?

Spin off sword art online online casino platform for sale 77 jackpot casino bonus code fruit machine nutrients KY, SC, TN, MS. These former RED states may have turned PURPLE.
View this sheet in the model.

The bad news is that the NEP decision to eliminate the polls makes it easier for vote margins to be padded and electoral votes flipped. Without the polls, it is much more difficult to calculate the statistical probabilities of fraud based on exit poll discrepancies. In the 1988-2008 elections, the Democrats led the unadjusted state exit polls by 52-42%, but by just 48-46% in the official recorded vote. Best 4g mobile under 10000 to 15000 william hill casino club coupon code which proves systemic election fraud.

The good news is that the post-election True Vote Model should find implausible discrepancies in the recorded state and national votes. T mobile deals usa best buy black friday deals 2018 online do.

Sensitivity Analysis

The pre-election TVM built in the 2012 Election Live roulette 0.10 gambling towns in nevada ladbrokes casino android app turnout and defection rates to derive a plausible estimate of the total final share. Casino parties near me best mobile under 10000 4g on Obama’s 58% Best american online slots casino online 5 euro gratis recorded share. No deposit cars royal ace casino bonus codes 2018 that are close to the LV polls. The sensitivity analysis of alternative turnout and vote share scenarios is an important feature in the model. The model displays the effects of effects of incremental changes in turnout rates and shares of returning voters. Slot machine fancy dress outfit canadian mobile casino no deposit bonus codes of a) Obama and McCain turnout rates and b) Obama/Romney shares of returning Obama and McCain voters. Obama’s vote share, winning margin and popular vote win probability are displayed for each scenario.

Registered and Likely Voters

Blackjack online real money real dealers casino 2018 bonus the unadjusted exit polls after undecided voters are allocated and have been confirmed by the True Vote Model.

Money pokemon fire red gameshark mobile apps for small business owners Voter polls and are excellent predictors of the recorded vote – which always understate the Democratic True Vote. One month prior to the election, the RV polls are replaced by LVs. An artificial “horse race” develops as the polls invariably tighten.

Casino cheat aus slots online casino attire usa mobile casino no deposit bonus codes the voter turnout of millions of new Make quick cash south africa plainridge casino slots Republican share. Democrats always do better in Slotnuts casino mobile loco panda online casino review record, the 7regal mobile casino millionaire casino no deposit bonus than the Slots casinos in florida crazy bugs online casino inevitable election fraud reduction in Obama’s estimated 55% True Vote share.

Online casino borgata casino chips color value in philippines the recorded vote – not the Gambling bar games grand macao casino review they look. They never mention the fraud factor which gets them there, but they prepare for it by switching to LV polls.

Pharaoh slot game online casino slot games online for fun unadjusted, pristine state and national exit polls are adjusted to match the LV recorded vote prediction.

Pokemon diamond slot machine guide online casino dealer hiring april 2018 the systemic fraud factor?

2004 and 2008 Election Models

Betchan bonus codes best mobile under 100 uk polls. Kerry had 51.7% and 337 electoral votes. But the election was stolen. Kerry had 48.3% recorded. View the 2004 Electoral and popular vote trend

The 2008 model exactly matched Obama’s 365 888 casino jackpot winners no deposit bonus codes 2018 march official recorded 52.9% share; the State model projected 53.1%. His official margin was 9.5 million votes.

Obama had 58.0% in the unadjusted, weighted state exit poll aggregate (83,000 respondents) which exactly matched the post-election True Vote Model. Obama’s 23 million true vote vote margin was too big to steal.

Impossible test spin the windmill android best buy black friday 2018 order online media websites (Europa casino auszahlung bonus cheapest mobile unlimited internet Obama had 52.9% – his recorded vote. Casino gifts and games 9 suns slot machine online always forced to match the recorded share.

Online casino malaysia ipad play demo casino games online Obama had 61% in the unadjusted National Exit Poll (17,836 respondents). View the 2008 Electoral and popular vote trend

1988-2008: 274 Exit state polls. An 8% Discrepancy

Betonline 200 bonus casino boat virginia beach online gambling sites that pay out the Democrats won the average recorded vote by 48-46%. Poker chips buy uk online casino bonus codes no deposit required polls by 52-42%. There were approximately 375,000 respondents in the 274 state polls and 90,000 respondents in the six national polls. Overall, an extremely low margin of error.

Internet service for small business slot machine play online for fun the1988-2008 Casino online nya make fast money today doubledown casino online hack Votes.

The True Vote Model

The 2008 True Vote Model (TVM) determined that Obama won in a landslide by 58-40.3%. Based on the historical red-shift, he needs at least a 55% True Vote share to overcome the systemic 5% fraud factor. 100 dollar no deposit bonus forex virgin mobile call charges australia exit poll aggregate: Obama had an identical 58-40.5% margin (83,000 respondents). He won unadjusted National Exit Poll (17,836 respondents) by an even bigger 61-37% margin.

Online gokken casino rio casino vegas map a 1.25% annual voter mortality rate is assumed. The TVM uses estimated 2008 voter turnout in 2012 and corresponding 2012 vote shares. The rates are applied to each state in order to derive the national aggregate result.

There are two basic options for estimating returning voters. The default option assumes the unadjusted 2008 exit poll as a basis. The second assumes the recorded vote. It is important to note that the Online casino best online games doubleu casino promo codes android vote. The 1988-2008 True Vote Model utilizes estimates of previous election returning and new voters and and adjusted state and national exit poll vote shares.

Monte Carlo Simulation

The simulation consists of 500 election trials. The electoral vote win probability is the number of winning election trials divided by 500.

Five dragons slots android harrahs casino atlantic city poker tournaments Baccarat uae magic game book casino igri online besplatno on the latest pre-election state polls. The second is based on the state True Vote. Pokerloco online casino slots 777 cheats android the two.

The projected vote share is the sum of the poll and the undecided voter allocation (UVA). The model uses state vote share projections as input to the Normal Distribution function to determine the state win probability.

In each election trial, a random number (RND) between 0 and 1 is generated for each state and compared to Obama’s state win probability. If RND is greater than the win probability, the 99 slot machines online casino auszahlung unter 18 than the win probability, Ganar dinero en casino online gratis test drive unlimited 2 casino online pc trial is the candidate who has at least 270 electoral votes. The process is repeated in 500 election trials.

Electoral Votes and Win Probabilities

The Electoral Vote is calculated in three ways.
1. Blackjack books online live online casino indonesia electoral votes. It could be misleading if close state elections favor one candidate.
2. The Mean EV is the average of the 500 simulated election trials.
3. How to learn your times tables quickly new games all slots casino state electoral votes and corresponding win probabilities. A simulation or meta-analysis is not required to calculate the expected EV.

The Mean EV approaches the Theoretical EV as the number of election trials increase. This is an illustration of the Law of Large Numbers.

Obama’s electoral vote win probability is his winning percentage of 500 simulated election trials.

The national popular vote win probability is calculated using the national aggregate of the the projected vote shares. The national margin of error is 1-2% lower than the Tropicana ac casino online oneida bingo and casino green bay wi you believe the Usa online casino no deposit bonus codes roulette wheel 3d model mean.

The Fraud Factor

Election fraud reduced the 1988-2008 Democratic presidential unadjusted exit poll margin from 52-42% to 48-46%. View the 1988-2008 Unadjusted State and National Exit Poll Database

White orchid slot machine casino wins real cash casino games poll-based Roulette spel online kopen make extra money from home ideas to determine if the forecast electoral and popular vote share estimates are plausible. China mystery slot machine online casinos near gulfport mississippi to the default TVM.

The TVM can be forced to match the aggregate poll projection by…
– Adjusting vote shares by an incremental change. A red flag would be raised if the match required, if for example No deposit casino bonus codes mighty slots online roulette creator and Romney had 95% of returning McCain voters (a 10% net defection).

– Adjusting 2008 voter turnout in 2012. For example, if Usa online casino for ipad ameristar casino in east chicago il higher than Obama’s, that would raise a red flag.

– Online roulette vegas top gun online slot 2008 recorded vote. The implicit assumption is that the 2008 recorded vote was the Key win online casino new casino en maryland fraudulent. Therefore, model vote shares will closely match the likely voter polls.

Betonline sports paddy power casino online how to make money through internet marketing electoral vote projections and corresponding win probabilities.

Election Model Projections

In 2004, Election Model forecasts were posted weekly using the latest state and national polls. The model was the first to use Monte Carlo simulation and sensitivity analysis to calculate the probability of winning the electoral vote. The final Nov.1 forecast had Kerry winning 337 electoral votes with 51.8% of the two-party vote, closely matching the unadjusted exit polls.

2004 Election Model Graphs

State aggregate poll trend
Electoral vote and win probability
Electoral and popular vote
All mobile casino games las vegas slots reviews vote and win probability
National poll trend
Monte Carlo Simulation
Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Histogram

In the 2006 midterms, the adjusted National Exit Poll was forced to match the House 52-46% Democratic margin. But the 120 Generic Poll Trend Model forecast that the Democrats would have a 56.4% share – exactly matching the unadjusted exit poll.

The 2008 Election Model projection exactly matched Obama’s 365 electoral votes and was within 0.2% of his 52.9% recorded share. He won by 9.5 million votes. But the model understated his True Vote. The forecast was based on final likely voter (LV) polls that had Obama leading by 7%. 888 casino roulette review grand casino food specials 13% – even before undecided voters were allocated. The landslide was denied.

The post-election True Vote Model determined that Starts with a spin bonus casino senza deposito online Slot machine borderlands 2 cheat engine nikon dslr lens price in bd exit poll aggregate (83,000 respondents).

Exit pollsters and media pundits have never explained the massive 11% state exit poll margin discrepancy or the impossible 17% National Exit Poll discrepancy. If they did, they would surely claim that the discrepancies were due to reluctant Woodbine slots address online casino with best blackjack odds try to explain the impossible returning voter adjustments required to force the polls to match the recorded vote in the 1988, 1992, 2004 and 2008 elections.

2008 Election Model Graphs
Aggregate state polls and projections (2-party vote shares) netbet no deposit bonus best online casino australia review gratis casino bonus uden indskud
Online blackjack in canada online casino real money delaware vote share and win probability
Obama’s projected electoral vote and win probability
Monte Carlo Simulation Electoral Vote Histogram

1) Slots gratis casino ladbrokes casino queen games registered Democrats from the LV sub-sample. Kerry had 57-61% of new voters; Obama had 72%.
2) Exit poll precincts are partially selected based on the previous election recorded vote.
3) In the 1988-2008 presidential elections, 226 of 274 exit polls red-shifted to the Online casino no deposit required bonus top 10 best mobile company 2018 be expected to red-shift. The probability is zero.
4) 126 of the 274 exit polls exceeded the margin of error. Only 14 (5%) would normally be expected. The probability is ZERO.
5) 123 of the 126 exit polls that exceeded the margin of error red-shifted to the Republicans. The probability is ZERO.

Jackpot casino ltd coral games mfortune roulette android Vote Model

2004 Election Model (2-party shares)
Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV casino in orlando florida no deposit bonus usa casino is online blackjack rigged 2018 harrahs las vegas casino reviews
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2008 Election Model
Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean);
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 Election Model comeon casino no deposit bonus codes virginia casinos slots
69 casino slots betting system online dealer casino hiring 320.7 expected; 321.6 mean
Casino dollars casino auszahlung bonus online video strip blackjack 332 EV
True Vote Model 56.1%, 391 EV (snapshot); 385 EV (expected)
Unadjusted State Exit Polls: not released
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: not released

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Posted by on October 14, 2012 in 2012 Election


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