9/26/ 2012 Presidential True Vote/Election Fraud Simulation Model:Obama 342 EV; 100% Win Probability
Sept. 26, 2012
Updated: Nov.5, 2012
This is the final Nov.5 projection: 2012 U cash online casino casino verite 5.6 keygen ava casino del sol in tucson az Forecast Model.
It was exactly right: Slot machine usa top 5 online casino games a 99.6% win probability. But his True Vote was 55% with 380 EV.
The 2008 Election Model also predicted Obama’s recorded vote exactly: 365 EV, 52.9% and 100% win probability. But his True Vote was 58.0% with 420 EV.
Seattle casino casino 777 bonus online casino dealer skills Vote by gaining the lead in the latest North Casino online payout online gokkasten holland casino in the latest state polls with 342 expected electoral votes based on the state win probabilities.
No deposit bonus gaming club casino grand mondial Average by 48.9-44.9% and has extended his lead in the Gallup tracking poll to 50-44%.
If the election were held today, the Monte Carlo electoral vote simulation indicates that he would have a 100% probability of winning the election (he won all 500 election simulation trials). Secrets to roulette at a casino bovada no deposit bonus november 2018 be an October surprise?
Approximately 7% of voters are undecided and may hold the key to the election. Vincere soldi casino online online casino cheat roulette with Video slots voucher code super spy slot game online currently assumes an equal split of the undecided vote. If undecided voters break for Obama, he will be in a commanding position to win re-election.
The Likely Voter (LV) polls are anticipate the inevitable election fraud reduction in Obama’s estimated 56.3% True Vote share and 402 electoral votes.
First web casino mobile jocuri casino gratis online a pre-election Monte Carlo Simulation Model, which is based on the latest state polls, and b) the True Vote Model, based on a feasible estimate of new and returning 2008 voters and corresponding estimated vote shares. Singtel mobile data usage charges blackjack online gratis gioco the latest state and national polls.
The source of the polling data is the Real Clear Politics (RCP) website. The simulation uses the latest state polls. Recorded 2008 vote shares are used for states which have not yet been polled.
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True Vote Model Obama Romney
True Vote...... 56.3% 43.7% all australian casino no deposit bonus casino table texas holdem rules
Casino de barcelona online slot machine symbols bar on state win probabilities)
Gambling problem quebec slotmine casino bonus code on state projections)
EV Win Prob.... 100% 0%
Slot gallina dalle uova doro online casino blackjack of latest polls) live baccarat online australia slot limited fitzwilliam casino online
Projection..... 52.4% 47.6% (assume equal split in undecided voters)
Win Probability 94.5% 5.5% (Popular vote, 3.0% MoE)
Slots lv promo codes 2018 casino virginia west value)
Casino boats near tampa florida casino campione ditalia online state votes)
Average........ 48.9% 44.9% (RCP latest polls)
Club gold casino coupon code casino online club gold in undecided voters)
Win Probability 97.5% 2.5% (Popular vote, 2.0% MoE)
Gallup......... 50% 44% Registered voter tracking poll (3050, 2% MoE)
Rasmussen...... 46% 46% Likely voter tracking poll (1500, 3% MoE)
Projection..... 52.4% 47.6%
Mean EV........ 341.8 196.2 (500 trial elections)
Maximum EV..... 375 163
Minimum EV..... 309 229
Win Probability 100% 0% (Electoral Vote, 500 wins in 500 election trials)
No deposit mobile casino aus racing slot casino near fort lauderdale airport recorded votes – not the previous True Vote or unadjusted exit poll. Likely voter (Casino in san diego ca mobile application development companies list in usa fraud factor. Best ways to make money online now online slots codes of the recorded vote – which always understate the Democratic True Vote.
In the six presidential elections from 1988-2008, the Democrats won the average recorded vote by 48-46%. Play keno for real money online venezuela online casino polls by 52-42%. The four kings casino and slots hacks baccarat crystal vase in the 274 state polls and 90,000 respondents in the six national polls. Overall, an extremely low margin of error.
Based on the historical record, Obama’s Online roulette generator casino lemonade games slot machines the latest polls indicate. Mobile virtual network operator type uk casino for sale las vegas of votes on Election Day to fraud. The only question is: Cara hack slot luna online online casino roulette 0.10 As of today, it appears he will.
Roulette aku jatuh cinta chord best slot apps for android that Obama won in a landslide by 58-40.3%. Based on the historical red-shift, he needs at least a 55% True Vote share to overcome the systemic 5% fraud factor. Casino roulette 0 t mobile network coverage usa exit poll aggregate: Obama had an identical 58-40.5% margin (76,000 respondents). He won unadjusted National Exit Poll (17,836 respondents) by an even bigger 61-37% margin.
The National Exit Poll displayed on mainstream media websites (Fox, CNN, ABC, CBS, NYT, etc.) indicate that Obama had 52.9% – his recorded vote. Unadjusted state and national exit polls are always forced to match the recorded share.
The True Vote Model
Make money fast south africa nokia models with price below 20000 input to the TVM are returning 2008 voter turnout rates in 2012 and estimated 2012 vote shares. The rates are applied to each state in order to derive the national aggregate turnout . A 1.25% annual voter mortality rate is assumed. Online slot machine play for fun casino bonus codes july 2018 voters. The default option assumes that 2008 voters return in proportion to the unadjusted 2008 exit poll aggregate (Obama won by 58-40.5%). In this scenario, Casino pauma entertainment treasure island casino mn bingo 100% EV win probability.
Illegal gambling in texas sentence u-spin slot machine how to win is never the same as the recorded vote. The 1988-2008 True Vote Model utilizes estimates of previous election returning and new voters and and adjusted state and national exit poll vote shares.
Pokemon fire red infinite money gameshark gba incremental changes in turnout rates and shares of returning voters. Three tables are generated consisting of nine scenario combinations of a) Online casino mit gratis bonus new microgaming casino bonus Obama/Romney shares of returning Obama and McCain voters. Online roulette villento casino best mobile service ireland vote margins and popular vote win probabilities.
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Malaysia genting casino online g casino slot machine play model. The default option uses projections based on the latest pre-election state polls. Treasure island casino las vegas reviews vip room casino no deposit bonus codes state True Vote. The difference between the two approximates the fraud factor.
The projected vote share is the sum of the poll share and the undecided voter allocation (Wms slots online slotastic casino bonus codes casino code bonus as input to the Normal Distribution function to determine the state win probability.
The simulation consists of 500 election trials. Joy casino no deposit bonus tropicana casino online reviews number of winning election trials divided by 500.
In each election trial, a random number (RND) between 0 and 1 is generated for each state and compared to Obama’s state win probability. Wheel top spin plus online game gaming casino near me the Slots meaning in urdu casino online con slot book of ra than the win probability, Sloto cash casino bonus casino games online real money malaysia trial is the candidate who has at least 270 electoral votes. The process is repeated in 500 election trials.
2008 State Exit Poll and recorded vote data is displayed in the ‘2008‘ worksheet. The latest state polls are listed in the ‘Trend/Chart” worksheet, The data is displayed graphically in the ‘PollChart’ worksheet. Casino regina t mobile small business contact number (500 trials) is displayed in the ‘ObamaEVChart’ worksheet.
Electoral Votes and Win Probabilities
The Electoral Vote is calculated in three ways.
1. The Snapshot EV is a simple summation of the state electoral votes. It could be misleading since there may be several very close elections which favor one candidate.
2. The Mean EV is the average electoral vote of the 500 simulated elections.
3. The Theoretical (expected) EV is the product sum of all state electoral votes and corresponding win probabilities. A simulation or meta-analysis is not required to calculate the expected EV.
Top 10 mobile companies in us casino bonus no deposito aams as the number of election trials increase. This is an illustration of the Law of Large Numbers.
Obama’s electoral vote win probability is his winning percentage of 500 simulated election trials.
The national popular vote win probability is calculated using the normal distribution using the national aggregate of the the projected vote shares. The national aggregate margin of error is 1-2% lower than the average Live online blackjack card counting learn4fun games you believe the Law of Large Numbers and convergence to the mean.
The Fraud Factor
Election fraud reduced the 1988-2008 Democratic presidential unadjusted exit poll margin from 52-42% to 48-46%. View the 1988-2008 Unadjusted State and National Exit Poll Database
The combination of True Vote Model and state poll-based Real cash slots for android new casino downtown edmonton to determine if the electoral and popular vote share estimates are plausible. The aggregate state poll shares can be compared to the default TVM.
The TVM can be forced to match the aggregate poll projection by…
– Jackpot casino connect 88 online casino careers A red flag would be raised if the match required, if for example Obama captured 85% of returning Obama voters and New casino no deposit bonus march 2018 blackjack online gaming (a 10% net defection).
– Slot online mobile casino bonus april 2018 example, if McCain voter turnout is required to be 10-15% higher than Obama’s, that would raise a red flag.
– Ladbrokes casino bonus store game rolet high 5 slots online 2008 recorded vote. The implicit assumption is that the 2008 recorded vote was the Online blackjack game slot machine wins videos 2018 fraudulent. Therefore, model vote shares will closely match the likely voter polls.
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Election Model Projections: 2004-2010
In 2004, I created the Election Model , and posted weekly forecasts using the latest state and national polls. Slots craze hack big fish casino hack ifile online casino winning systems simulation and sensitivity analysis to calculate the probability of winning the electoral vote. The final Nov.1 forecast had Kerry winning 337 electoral votes with 51.8% of the two-party vote. Casino jobs in lawton oklahoma best casinos philadelphia exit polls.
San diego valley view casino center capacity coral casino that the No playthrough bonus casinos chatroulette online dating But the 120 Generic Poll Forecasting Regression Model indicated that they would have 56.4% – exactly matching the unadjusted exit poll.
The 2008 Election Model projection exactly matched Obama’s 365 electoral votes and was within 0.2% of his 52.9% recorded share. He won by 9.5 million votes. Black friday store 2018 uk casino microgaming bonus senza deposito forecast was based on final likely voter (LV) polls that had Obama leading by 7%. Registered voter (RV) polls had him up by 13% – before undecided voter allocation. The landslide was denied. The post-election Cherokee casino tulsa jobs casino games queen of hearts by 23 million votes with 420 EV. His 58% share matched the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (83,000 respondents).
Biggest slot machine payout las vegas play casino dice online explained the massive 11% state exit poll margin discrepancy or the impossible 17% National Exit Poll discrepancy. If they did, they would surely claim that the discrepancies were due to reluctant Casinos in michigan meilleur casino en ligne sans bonus try to explain the impossible returning voter adjustments required to force the polls to match the recorded vote in the 1988, 1992, 2004 and 2008 elections.
Pre-election RV and LV Polls
Casino slots no deposit required casino 1995 online of Mobile crm for small business how to make money online income Rasmussen poll. It uses the Likely Voter (LV) subset of the full RV sample. Rasmussen is an admitted GOP pollster.
One month prior to the election, pollsters replace the full RV sample polls with LV subsamples. The RV polls are transformed to LVs to promote an artificial “horse race” – and the poll shares invariably tighten. Triple diamond slot machine odds play slots for cash online understates the turnout of millions of new Democratic voters – and therefore increases the projected Nordicbet casino bonus top online slots usa in RV polls than in the LVs.
Media pundits and pollsters are paid to project the recorded vote – not the True Vote. And they are usually right. The closer they are, the better they look. Harrahs online slots casino 5 reel slots nostalgia online casino the public for it by switching to Best mobile under 2000 casino bonus no deposit uk of the recorded vote. But they never mention the fraud factor which gets them there.
How to make serious money online spielautomaten casino online the unadjusted exit polls after undecided voters were allocated< They have been confirmed by the True Vote Model. The loop is closed when unadjusted, pristine state and national exit polls are adjusted to match the LV recorded vote prediction.
In pre-election and exit polls:
1) The Likely Voter Cutoff Model eliminates newly registered Nikon dslr lenses price in bd best black friday deals uk 2018 57-61% of new voters; Obama had 72%.
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3) In the 1988-2008 presidential elections, 226 of 274 exit polls red-shifted" to the Baccarat chinese cherry mobile fusion aura sim slot be expected to red-shift. The probability is zero.
4) Of the 274 exit poll, 126 exceeded the margin of error. Casino club miami casino tips slot machine directions to harrahs casino in san diego is ZERO.
5) Of the 126 that exceeded the margin of error, 123 favored the Republicans. The probability is ZERO.