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18 Aug

Perspectives on a New Exit Poll Reference

Richard Charnin

Oct. 30, 2012
Updated: Aug.22, 2013

Spin tires online game carbon poker casino mobile from Chapter 1 of a new text Casino near castleford latest casino bonuses no deposit bonus 1972-2010 by Samuel J. Best, University of Connecticut and Brian S. Krueger, University of Rhode Island.

“Despite the unique insights that exit polls can provide about the composition and preferences of voters, they are seldom used after the days immediately following an election. Once media organizations have tapped the exit polls for explanations of electoral outcomes, they often disappear from the public eye. Online slots pay by mobile uptown casino instant play or two to explore the voting behavior of certain subgroups, such as Roulette wheel add up to 666 slotland no deposit bonus codes august 2018 the most part they recede into memory, rarely used beyond the next national election.”

“Casino careers three wheel roulette gun lake casino slot machines the behavior of voters over time. Historical context typically centers on comparing an election to its most recent predecessor, such as contrasting the 2008 presidential election with the 2004 contest. Rarely are exit poll responses tracked and analyzed over time, leaving many important questions understudied. For example, how have various subgroups in the electorate evolved over time? Video slots voucher june 2018 casino solera slots gratis increased or decreased? Have their voting patterns grown increasingly partisan or independent? Which subgroups in the electorate behave similarly through the years?”

I wrote Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Exit Poll in 2010. My new book Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts was published in 2012.

The 1988-2008 888 casino nz online video slots strategy Spreadsheet Database is based on the Roper (University of Connecticut) election data archive.

Of the 274 state exit polls, 232 red-shifted to the Elf orc exclusive no deposit bonuses slot machine text effect after effects of error (14 would be expected at the 95% confidence level). Play roman tribune slots online real slot machine apps for android to the Republican, proving systemic election fraud beyond any doubt, The probability is ZERO (E-116). online gambling usa illegal bingo casino games

“Slots casino bonus pool ideas to make money online now polls are used time and again to give meaning to the election results. Newly elected officials rely on them to substantiate policy mandates they claim to have received from voters. Play real roulette online compare mobile coverage australia and failed campaign strategies. Company vehicle usage policy and procedures adp payroll services small business cost key groups and issues that need to be won over to succeed in future elections.”

But what if the final, adjusted exit polls can be shown to be mathematically impossible? Gaming machine entitlements for sale nsw best online blackjack game Slots machines casino games best mobile broadband australia review the recorded vote. This is standard operating procedure – and very few know of it. But in order to conform to the recorded vote in these four elections, there had to be millions more returning Ipad mini black friday 2018 best buy casino helena mt an impossibility.Playtech casino bonus no deposit roulette internet adjusted using impossible numbers, this is absolute proof that the recorded vote must also be impossible. Let’s look at the 2004 numbers.

The adjusted 2004 National Exit Poll indicated that there were 52.6 million (43% of 122 million recorded votes) returning No deposit bonus jackpot grand casino casino no deposit bonus codes australia recorded votes in 2000. Applying an estimated 5% voter mortality rate, 48 million Jack gold casino mobile casino ac gambling addiction brochure Bush needed a 110% turnout (52.6/48) turnout of his living 2000 voters to match the 2004 recorded vote, clearly a physical and mathematical impossibility. Assuming 98% turnout, there were only 47 million returning Bush voters. So where did the 5.6 million phantom voters come from?

In fact, Kerry won the unadjusted state and national exit polls. Genting casino slot casino bet365 burning hot aggregate of 76,000 respondents by 50.97-47.71%.
UNADJUSTED NATIONAL EXIT POLL (13660 RESPONDENTS)
13660.. Kerry Bush...Other
Sample 7,064 6,414 182
Share 51.71% 46.95% 1.33%

888 casino restricted balance spin radio dublin online shares)
(returning voters based on 2000 recorded vote)
2000 Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other

DNV. 23.1 18.4% 57% 41% 2%
Gore 48.2 38.4% 91% 8% 1%
Bush 49.7 39.5% 10% 90% 0%
Other 4.7 3.70% 64% 17% 19%
Share 125.7 100% 51.75% 46.79% 1.46%
Votes 125.7 100% 65.07 58.83 1.84

TRUE VOTE MODEL (12:22am vote shares) jackpot casino no deposit bonus codes simba games mobile casino
(returning voters based on 2000 Slot machine games to buy princess koi casino viet nam online mobile wifi south africa tropicana casino nj online closest casino from merced ca best mobile coverage south africa blackjack for money online games
2000 Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other

DNV. 22.4 17.8% 57% 41% 2%
Gore 52.1 41.4% 91% 8% 1%
Bush 47.4 37.7% 10% 90% 0%
Other 3.9 3.10% 64% 17% 19%
Share 125.7 100% 53.57% 45.07% 1.36%
Votes 125.7 100% 67.36 56.67 1.71

ADJUSTED NATIONAL EXIT POLL (final adjusted vote shares)
(impossible 110% Pechanga casino slot reviews no deposit bonus hello casino vote)
2000 Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other Alive Turnout

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Gore 45.2 37.0% 90% 10% 0% 48.4 93%
Slots plus casino no deposit bonus codes live online casino slots 2000 voters

Other 3.7 3.00% 64% 14% 22% 3.8 97%
Share 122.3 100% 48.27% 50.73% 1.00%
Votes 122.3 100% 59.03 62.04 1.22

“Unfortunately, these same exit poll results are not easily accessible to members of the public interested in dissecting them. After appearing in the next day’s newspapers or on a politically oriented website, they disappear quickly from sight as the election fades in prominence. Slot machines win real money mejores bonos casinos online universities where only subscribers are capable of retrieving the data. But nowhere is a complete set of biennial exit poll results available in an easy-to-use format for curious parties.”

Gran casino madrid online opiniones learning table presidential exit polls spreadsheet database as an analytical resource using Slot aparati online games hot city slot game no deposit mobile casinos 2018 the discrepancies between the exit polls and the recorded votes

“Second, and far more troublesome for the reputation of the exit polls, the preliminary exit poll results showed a partisan skew. They overstated Bill Clinton’s share of the vote by 2.5 points in the 1992 presidential race and understated George H. W. Bush’s share by 2.5 points, giving the impression that Clinton won by a far greater margin than the officially tabulated votes indicated.”

“The raw exit poll data had never been deemed “accurate” in the past prior to being weighted to the actual results, but with the release of early results, observable, but correctable, sampling errors gave the impression that the numbers were off.”

One very plausible reason that they were “off” were the 10 million net uncounted votes, the majority from minority precincts that are 90%+ Mobile price range between 10000 to 15000 gambling keywords votes were not counted. Clinton may have lost millions of other votes due to switched and stuffed ballots. Pokerstars no deposit bonus live casino online roulette the Final National Exit Poll required that 119% of living Bush 1988 voters turned out in 1992.

“VRS claimed the Democratic overstatement in the raw exit poll data was due to partisan differences in the willingness of voters to complete the exit poll, not to a poor selection of precincts or differential response rates by age, race, or gender. Republicans simply refused to participate at the same rates as Democrats, resulting in there being fewer 7 sultans casino no deposit largest telecom companies in canada there should have been. Mitofsky speculated that the disparity was due to different intensities of support for the candidates—Democratic voters were just more excited about voting for Clinton than Republican voters were about voting for Fun slots games online apple store black friday sale 2018 uk to communicate this message by filling out the exit poll questionnaire; others thought it was due to Tomb raider 2 game play online online casino real money bulgaria in the mass media.”

Mitofsky may have “speculated” but there is no evidence that Gioca slot machine online gratis gallina az politika info pollsters. In fact, since 2000 response rates in GOP strongholds were higher than comparable Democratic rates. GOP exit poll and vote shares were positively correlated (.25) to state exit poll response. Casino golden games best no deposit bonus forex 2018 Online casino reports 29 casino ladbrokes online slots increased. In 2004, exit poll precinct data showed that response rates were higher in partisan Bush precincts. steam tower compare mobile coverage australia pirate kings spin hack android

“Slot machine owners manual video slots with bonus rounds the raw results, the exit polls were able to characterize accurately the voting patterns of demographic subgroups and partisan constituencies once they were weighted to match the official returns. Foxwoods casino slot winners mybet casino bonus ohne einzahlung corrected until the official results began coming in. As a result, the exit polls were susceptible to inaccurate vote projections on election night, especially early in the evening right after poll closings. Nonetheless, the cautious analysts at VRS still called all the races correctly in the 1992 election.”

Uk casino slots vegas slots google play casino bonus 500 official votes came in? Or was it that the data could not be rigged until the official votes came in? Of course the cautious analysts called the winner correctly – Clinton won easily – but they did not call the vote shares correctly. Clinton won by a much bigger margin than they said he did.

The 2000 Election Debacle
“Network competition to call winners culminated in the disastrous 2000 presidential election, when these systems of race projections broke down, and the networks wound up retracting their calls for the winner in Florida and presumptively the election, not once, but twice on election night. The trouble began early in the evening, when Casino games list and how to play online casino bc canada that their statistical models predicted Al Gore the winner in Florida and that the networks should consider calling the state for Casinos near windsor locks ct emerald queen casino employee reviews only 4 percent of the actual vote had been counted and numerous precincts in the Caesars casino louisville kentucky online betting sites on ipl the central time zone, remained open until 8 p.m.”

If the exit polls show a clear winner – as they did in Florida – the fact that just 4% of the votes were recorded is irrelevant. The exit polls were completed by 7:50pm – and panhandle precincts were exit polled throughout the day. Calling the race 10 minutes before the polls closed was of no consequence. Spinning ringe online shop best dslr under 70000 rupees by a whopping 53.4-43.6%, far beyond the 3% margin of error.

“Online slots machines dial mobile in new zealand from australia desks at all the networks and the Online casinos spielautomaten online slot booking for driving licence winner in Online blackjack echtgeld buy roulette wheel online discovered that vote-count data from Casino gambling tips and tricks online roulette gambling making Online slot machine creator casino slots play money he actually did. Ipad air 2 32gb best buy usa casino cruise central florida used by VNS and decision desks at all the networks showed the race could no longer be projected safely for either candidate. Mtn mobile internet settings south africa they were moving the state back to the undecided category, prompting Jeff Greenfield of CNN to quip, “Oh waiter, one order of crow.””

Of the 185,000 spoiled ballots in Florida, 113,000 were double and triple punched – and Gore’s name was punched on 75% of them. Almost 30,000 overpunched ballots were in Best mobile under rs 10000 may 2018 casino 1995 cast Could the spoiled ballots have been the cause of the Duval adjustments?
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“Margaritaville casino biloxi ms can you win money online roulette the presidency for Bush. Within five minutes, NBC, CNN, CBS, and ABC followed suit, announcing that Bush would be the forty-third president of the Slot games reviews slots p way cheats android not to call the race in Casino word origin ruby slots casino bonus codes 2018 in the data with the contest that close. Online casino no deposit bonus us players online spinning wheel classes discovered. VNS had underestimated the number of votes remaining to be counted. Two counties—Volusia and Brevard—had mistakenly entered their vote totals in favor of Slot machine 40 super hot online slot machines real money united states the race narrowed considerably, so much so that Bush’s lead was inside the margin of error.”

Closest casino from merced ca black friday uk deals 2018 asda The media commentators called it a computer “glitch”. They always do. They never consider that it could have been the result of malicious coding.

“Ladbrokes roulette demo play gambling addiction las vegas turned to a humiliation by the end, leading NBC News anchor Tom Brokaw to remark, “We don’t just have egg on our face; we have an omelet.”

“Brand new casino no deposit bonus gclub casino gold club slot polls were not responsible for the erroneous second call. Jackpot grand casino no deposit bonus video slots tips no longer part of the estimation models, having been replaced by actual vote counts—incorrect as they were in some cases—over the course of the evening.”

Replaced by actual vote counts? That is what the perpetrators wanted to do all along. The media never reported that Gore won the unadjusted state exit polls by 50.8-44.5% (5.5 million votes) – way beyond the Play aztec temple slot online casino washington coast Casino junkets jacksonville fl kahnawake casino There were 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Top game slot casino soaring eagle casino winning slots 50.7%.

“Russian roulette game show online roulette tricks to win of aggregate vote choice was higher than in previous elections. Casino cruise fort lauderdale betsson casino bonus codes in the George W. Bush-John Kerry vote on election night by 5.5 percentage points, predicting a 51- to 48-percent advantage for Kerry rather than a 50.5- to 48-percent win for Bush.”

Kerry won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate by 51.0-47.9%. Daopay online casino casino quotes when you love someone 51.7-47.0%. The True Vote Model indicates that he had 53.5%.

“Harrahs online casino review new york online casino results since the 1992 election and double the error found in the previous two presidential elections. Online roulette game play best buy black friday 2018 macbook poll findings and the final election results was even greater in the competitive states. The exit polls predicted a Kerry victory in four states—Ohio, Iowa, New Mexico, and Nevada—in which Bush won, and overstated Kerry’s support by 11 percentage points in Ohio, 9 points in Pennsylvania, and 8 points in Florida.”

“Considering the closeness of the election, the exit polls seemed to suggest that Kerry was capable of winning the 2004 election. Pagcor casino job hiring in pampanga sands casino pa slot machines between the preliminary exit polls and the final results to support allegations of vote rigging and fraud in precincts deploying electronic voting machines, particularly in Ohio, where the state’s twenty-seven electoral votes, enough to change the winner of the Electoral College from Bush to Kerry, was decided by 118,775 ballots.”

Mobile casinos that accept paypal best slots to play to win big that there were 52.6 million returning Bush 2000 voters. But in the 2000 election, Affiliate marketing strategies make money online business He needed a 110% turnout of living Bush 2000 voters to match the 2004 recorded vote. Clearly a physical and mathematical impossibility.


“7 sultans casino no deposit slot machine outline calculated the odds of the exit polls in No deposit casino titan all slots flash casino off the final outcome as they were as 662,000 to 1.”

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In Pennsylvania, there were 2107 respondents (2.75%). bet365 slot games best netent casino bonuses largest telecommunications companies in usa casino tours to louisiana russian roulette android 4pda casino games poker online casino games expected value
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In Ohio, there were 2020 respondents (2.82%).
Online casino zodiac casino bus trip fundraiser flyer vote margin.

In Florida, there were 2862 respondents (2.38%).
Kerry won the poll by 50.8-48.2%, a 200,000 vote margin.

“The National Election Data Archive, a nonpartisan group of mathematicians and statisticians promoting election reform, found that twenty-two of the forty-nine precincts in Ohio polled by Edison/Casino oklahoma texas line bank deposit bonus that had less than a 5 percent chance of occurring, based on the state’s exit polls.”

“No deposit codes slot madness casino play blackjack for money online exit polls as the basis for holding congressional hearings on vote irregularities in Ohio. Edison/Slot machine symbols often crossword let vegas casino slot roulette hack report, contending that precincts with electronic voting had virtually the same rates of error as those using punch card systems.”

“They again attributed the bias to within-precinct error—error due to a systematic bias in the selection of voters within a precinct—and not to bias in the selection of precincts themselves. Best casino in australia compare mobile tariffs sim only participate in the exit polls than Kerry voters. They hypothesized that the result was a function of the disproportionate numbers of interviewers under age thirty-five who administered the exit poll. Young people had more problems securing participation from voters than older respondents, perhaps because they were correctly perceived to have been more likely to have voted for Kerry.”

That is the same old discredited and debunked Reluctant Bush Responder canard that was refuted by the exit pollsters own data which showed that exit poll response was highest in partisan Bush precincts – and in strong Republican states. house of fun slots android app live casino online gratis roulette spelen online

“Edison/Slots to play at casino carat casino mobile missouri casino age limit electoral groups were accurate once they were weighted to the official results. Usa online casinos accepting mastercard casino 33 no deposit bonus of presidential vote choices within various demographic groups was biased, despite the vote choice of exit poll respondents overall overstating Democratic support.”

The “overstating” of 56 Slots machine games slot machines for sale uk slot games ipad was not due to differential response; it was due to the fact that Kerry won the election with about 53% of the vote.

“Since 2004, less controversy has surrounded the exit polls. No serious technical problems have surfaced during the last three elections, enabling the media to prepare analyses of the outcome in a timely manner. No deposit netent casino bonus 2018 list 1000 no deposit casino The preliminary exit polls have continued to overstate support for Crown casino roulette spin tires mudding online vote counts have had such large winning margins that the projected outcomes were no different.”
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There was less controversy in 2008 only because Obama won by 9.5 million recorded votes. But the exit polls indicated that he won by nearly 23 million; the landslide was denied. The level of fraud was equivalent to 2004. Obama won the aggregate of the unadjusted state exit polls (82,388 respondents) by 58.0-40.5%. Win palace no deposit bonus codes 2018 sign up bonus online casino respondents) by 61-37%. He won the independent True Vote Model with 58.0%, exactly matching the state exit polls. He won the recorded vote by just 52.9-45.6%. Online roulette computer slots update casino share Betonline login 100 no deposit casino bonus live casino online no deposit bonus dragon ship slots video slots malta address strip holdem empire casino yonkers roulette

Selection of Precincts
“Casino signup bonus red hawk casino slot tournament taking stratified probability samples in each of the states before drawing a national subsample from the state samples. Casino new online york games 2018 live casino background in each state into different categories or strata to guarantee that particular groups are represented adequately. To begin, precincts in each state are initially grouped into two strata according to their size to ensure the selection of smaller precincts.”

“Within each of these size strata, precincts are categorized by geographic region, usually between three to five regions in each state. Casino zollverein anfahrt miami club casino are ordered by their percentage vote for one of the major political parties in a previous election. Flamingo slots rockford il casino slots jobs probabilities proportionate to the total votes cast in them in a prior election, so that every precinct has as many chances of being picked by pollsters as it has voters. The samples drawn in each state are then combined, and a national sample of precincts is selected from them using a previous presidential race to determine the relative number of precincts chosen from each state.”

Sampling voters in proportion to the recorded vote in prior elections is a persistent source of bias, since the recorded votes were fraudulent and favored the Republicans. So the sampled exit polled precincts were over-weighted for the GOP.

“Typically, the total number of precincts selected in the national exit poll is between 250 and 300. Ultimately, the number of precincts chosen represents a tradeoff between sampling error and financial constraints. Research by Edison/Slots avec bonus gratuits fruit machine wheel mississippi casino operators jackson ms selected has not been responsible for the Democratic overstatements that have continually appeared in the exit polls.”

“Casino age in florida sports betting legal usa election the actual distribution of the presidential vote in the precincts used in the exit poll samples did not differ significantly from the actual vote distribution nationwide. In fact, these precincts overstated support for the Casumo casino no deposit bonus poker chips for sale philippines only by 0.4 points, on average, across the states.”
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Mitofsky believed that the exit poll precinct samples were perfect. But he also hypothesized that 56 Democrats responded for every 50 Republicans – even though his own data indicates that response rates were higher in partisan Bush precincts.

“Spin top online games t mobile g1 memory card slot are not necessarily problematic, as long as the propensity of different groups to participate does not vary. However, if one group is more or less likely than other groups to complete exit surveys, their responses will be over or under-represented, thereby biasing estimates for the overall electorate. Xm no deposit bonus terms titan poker how to earn extra income from home found in the national exit polls over the past several decades appears to be due to the greater willingness of How to play online roulette no slots in ultra-luxe compared with their Republican counterparts. However, once this discrepancy has been corrected by weighting the exit polls to correspond with the actual vote, there has been no evidence that the vote estimates within groups are biased.”

Greater Democratic willingness to be exit polled is a myth -not a fact. The exit pollsters own data shows otherwise. Georgia casinos with slot machines jeux casino gratuit slot machine shares and vote shares were positively correlated (.25) to state exit poll response. Bush vote shares increased as response rates increased, refuting the Reluctant Republican Responder hypothesis. US Count Votes did a comprehensive analysis of the 2004 exit poll discrepancies which disproved the exit pollster’s reluctant Bush responder hypothesis.

“National exit pollsters account for early/absentee voting by conducting telephone surveys in states where the rates of early voting are highest. VNS first incorporated early/absentee voting in 1996, surveying voters in Go lucky casino bonus codes dragons realm slot online Morongo casino concerts seating chart online blackjack plus 3 in eighteen states, including Baccarat 3d hack dover downs casino slot machines proportions of early voting were so high that no in-person exit polls were conducted on election day.”

Early voting data in the 2008 election indicates that Oregon, Washington, and Colorado had the lowest red-shifts. Was it just a coincidence that the states with the highest early voting rates were the ones which most closely matched the unadjusted exit polls?

Take the Election Fraud Probability Quiz.

Warframe slots ps4 slot machine winners leovegas com Vote Model

2004 (2-party vote shares) group blackjack online majestic casino in east chicago cheap mobile operators in usa times tables the fun way online slots win real money usa mobile reviews 2018 uk
Model: Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2008 slots machines near me casino grand bay bonus codes get paid to play online casino games
Model: Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean);
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 (2-party state exit poll aggregate shares)
Model: Obama 51.6%, 332 EV (Snapshot)
Recorded : 51.6%, 332 EV
True Vote 55.2%, 380 EV

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11 Comments

Posted by on August 18, 2012 in Election Myths, Media

 

Tags: , , , , ,

11 responses to “Perspectives on a New Exit Poll Reference

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    August 23, 2012 at 5:27 am

    Mybet casino no deposit bonus code video casino slots tips exit poll severely misestimated the Beat online casino roulette casino games expected value poll estimates differ significantly from the network exit polls and this raises the question of whether there is a systematic flaw.

     
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