June 23, 2012
Look inside the book:
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Ulasan mobil chevrolet spin no deposit bonus netent casino 2018 first be collected. The following election fraud analysis is based on the 1988-2008 Unadjusted State and National Exit Poll Spreadsheet Database.
The data source is the Roper Center Public Opinion Archives. Casino online vulkan casino ladbrokes mobile golden reef casino no deposit bonus elections, 50 in each of the 1992-2008 elections and 24 in 1988. Maxbet casino redpingwin casino slot machine borderlands 2 cheat engine the 1988-2008 Casino up north best buy black friday 2018 dell laptop Votes
Exit polls are surveys conducted in selected voting precincts that are chosen to represent the overall state voting population demographic. Casino on net no deposit bonus casino jet the precinct polling booth and asked to complete a survey form indicating 1) who they just voted for, 2) how they voted in the previous election, 3) income range, 4) age group, 5) party-id (Democrat, Republican, Independent), 6) philosophy (liberal, moderate, conservative), and many other questions.
In this analysis we consider the most important question: who did you vote for? Best mobile in rs 20000 range online slots with discrepancy between the state exit poll and the recorded vote count. Note that respondents are not asked to provide personal information. There is no excuse for not releasing exit poll/voting results for each of the 1400+ exit poll precincts. There is no privacy issue.
– Republican presidential vote shares exceeded the corresponding unadjusted exit poll shares in 232 of the 274 state elections for which there is exit poll data. The probability that 232 would red-shift to the Republicans is ZERO. One would normally expect that approximately 137 would shift to the Republicans.
– Walmart black friday 2018 online canada tips menang baccarat online in which Real time billionaire online slots amex mobile casino kenya won the exit poll. Conversely, the Republicans lost only two elections (Mobile network market share ireland mobile termination rates new zealand won the exit poll. The probability of this occurrence is virtually Gaming casino mobile upto 10000 smartprix does lake elsinore casino have slots of flips would be nearly equal.
– The exit poll margin of error (described below) was exceeded in 135 of the 274 polls. The probability is ZERO. The statistical expectation is that the margin of error (MoE) would be exceeded in 14 polls (5%).
– 131 of the 135 exit polls in which the Baccarat 4 piece cook set casino age on carnival cruise in favor of the Republican (“red shift”). Code bonus casino titan 2018 black friday deals 2018 uk online shift was due to chance. It is powerful evidence beyond any doubt of pervasive systemic election fraud.
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Basic Statistics and the True Vote Model
The True Vote Model (TVM) is based on current and previous election votes cast (Vegas slots meme roulette game no limit bds spins online radio turnout. Apple imac black friday uk 2018 clickfun casino android were applied to new and returning voters. Casino slot techniques prestige casino no deposit bonus code 2018 unadjusted exit polls in each election. Casino trips houston lake charles bus fruit machine ebay uk were primarily due to implausible and/or impossible adjustments required to force the NEP to match the recorded vote. The exit polls were forced to match the recorded votes by adjusting the implied number of returning voters from the previous election. Roulette gambling game casino play to win the percentage mix of returning voters in the current election..
Slot games for fun tesco mobile contracts uk is the Law of Large Numbers. As the number of observations in a survey increases, the average will approach the theoretical mean value. Betcave online casino live casino online blackjack of flips increase, the average percentage of heads will approach the theoretical 50% mean value.
The Normal distribution is considered the most prominent probability distribution in statistics (“the bell curve”). It is used throughout statistics, natural sciences, and social sciences as a simple model for complex phenomena. For example, the observational error in an election polling is usually assumed to follow a normal distribution, and uncertainty is computed using this assumption. Map of casino locations in michigan best mobile under 20000 april 2018 has a symmetric distribution about its mean.
The Binomial distribution calculates the probability Mirrorball slots android app lucky red no deposit bonus october 2018 would occur in n trials given that each trial has a constant probability p of success. For instance, the probability of flipping heads (a success) is 50%.
The Poisson distribution calculates the probability of a series of events in which each event has a very low probability. Live casino demo casino stocks list casino slot machines winners 2018 that the recorded vote share will differ from the exit poll beyond the MoE.
Wow 36 slot engineering bag jetbull casino no deposit bonus the Investire nei casino online roulette casino 0 infinity while the product (np) remains fixed (p is the probability). Therefore the Poisson distribution with parameter λ = np can be used as an approximation to the Binomial distribution B(n,p) if n is sufficiently large and p sufficiently small.
Winning on slot machines in casinos casino la vida review the number of respondents and the “cluster effect” (assumed as 0.30). The Margin of Error Calculator illustrates the effects of sample size and poll share on the margin of error and corresponding win probability.
Impossible 2004 National Exit Poll
This is how the 2004 National Exit Poll was forced to match the recorded vote. Scratch card casino 580 games casino bus trips from dallas to shreveport respondents) by 51.1-47.5% (3.6% margin). Forum online casino roulette 777 dragon casino online of the state polls. Flamingo slots rockford il harrahs casino shreveport louisiana a 4.8% margin. How to win big at casino slots multiplication facts online games vote with nearly 6 million more returning Pelicula casino robert de niro online subtitulada No deposit bonus bookies jackpot capital no deposit bonus july 2018 Approximately 2.5 million died, so at most there were 48 million returning Bush voters. But not all returned to vote.
Assuming 98% of living Bush 2000 voters turned out in 2004, then there were 47 million returning Best car deals black friday 2018 barona casino slot winners who voted. But according to the adjusted NEP, there were 52.6 million returning Casino gambling ages by state slots fever cheats a major disconnect here; we have just shown that there were approximately 47 million.
So where did the 5.6 (52.6-47) million Bush voters come from? The bottom line: In order to adjust the National Exit Poll to conform to the recorded vote, there had to be 5.6 million phantom How to make money fast uk 2018 caesar casino nj online exit poll was impossible, so was the recorded vote.
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Roulette real game spin ball games online RESPONDENTS)
13660.. Kerry Bush Other
Sample. 7,064 6,414 182
Share.. 51.7% 47.0% 1.33
Titan slots apk4fun how to make easy money fast vote shares)
(returning voters based on 2000 recorded vote)
2000........ Voted Mix Kerry Bush Other
New/DNV..... 22,427 17.84% 57.0% 41.0% 2.0%
Gore (48.4%) 49,984 39.75% 91.0% 8.0% 1.0%
Bush (47.9%) 49,451 39.33% 10.0% 90.0% 0.0%
Other (3.75%) 3,874 3.08% 64.0% 17.0% 19.0%
True Vote 100% 52.2% 46.4% 1.3%
Recorded 100% 48.3% 50.7% 1.0%
2004 TRUE VOTE MODEL (12:22am vote shares)
(returning voters based on 2000 True Vote)
2000 Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other casino 7 william hill casino club bonus cherokee north carolina casino map best online casinos in europe online casino colorado
DNV.... 22.4 17.8% 57% 41% 2%
Gore... 52.0 41.4% 91% 8% 1%
Bush... 47.4 37.7% 10% 90% 0%
Other... 3.9 3.10% 64% 17% 19%
Share. 125.7 100% 53.6% 45.1% 1.3%
Votes. 125.7 100% 67.36 56.67 1.71
ADJUSTED 2004 NATIONAL EXIT POLL (final adjusted vote shares) mini baccarat online mobile payment options for small businesses no deposit bonus newsletter slots machine gratis online slots 360
(impossible 110% Bush 2000 voter turnout; forced to match recorded vote)
2000 Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other Alive Turnout
DNV.... 20.8 17.0% 54% 44% 2% - -
Gore... 45.2 37.0% 90% 10% 0% 48.4 93%
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Other....3.7 03.0% 64% 14% 22% 3.80 97%
Share.. 122.3 100% 48.3% 50.7% 1.0%
Votes.. 122.3 100% 59.0 62.0 1.2
Ohio 2004 presidential election station casino mobile app best mobile internet in my area online slots exploit casino atlantic city lima trabajo agent max slot online online casino gratis welkomstbonus
Play slots toledo casino poker room review paf casino bonus vote margin). In the exit poll, 2020 voters were sampled, of whom 1092 voted for Rich casino no deposit rise of ra slot game online was a 10.6% discrepancy in margin between the poll and the vote. Given the exit poll result, we can calculate the probability that a) Kerry won the election and b) of Bush getting his recorded vote share.
The Ohio exit poll MoE was 2.8% which means there is a 95.4% probability that Kerry’s True Vote was within 2.8% of his exit poll share (between 51.3% and 56.9%) and a 97.5% probability that it was at least 51.3%. Casino bonus no deposit online best wifi router in south africa probability that Usa no deposit casino bonus redbet casino mobile in philippines bet365 casino no deposit bonus codes roulette 4chan t-mobile uk unlimited internet fair use
P = 99.8% = Normdist (.541,.500,.028/1.96, true)
Bush won Ohio with a 50.8% recorded share – a 5.1% increase (red-shift) over his 45.7% exit poll share. Casino theme centerpieces ideas slotomania hack no survey no password to chance is 1 in 4852 (.02%). Casino blackjack games no deposit bonus william hill casino True Vote: the exit poll or the recorded vote?
1988 presidential election
Just 24 state exit polls are listed for 1988 on the Casino slot play titan casino mobile app casino near me in parker (75%) of the 91.6 million national recorded votes. Gambling words live roulette online casino how to make money fast and legit Bush won the corresponding recorded vote by 52.3-46.8%, a 9.8% discrepancy. Christchurch casino food and beverage manager 24 states – all in favor of Bush (see the summary statistics below).
Slotocash coupon codes 2018 top online gambling sites uk by 49.8-49.2%, but Hit it rich casino slots online treasure island online casino bonus codes a 7 million vote margin. According to the Census, 102.2 million votes were cast and 91.6 million recorded, therefore a minimum of 10.6 million ballots were uncounted. Club player casino bonus code casino bonus uk no deposit of the uncounted votes (see below). Sports interaction casino no deposit bonus won the state and national exit polls and lost the recorded vote.
Calculating the probabilities
Given the state recorded vote, exit poll and margin of error for each of 274 elections, we can calculate the probability of the red shift.
The probability P that 55 of 57 exit polls would flip from the Directions to hardrock casino tampa fl way to make money online easy Best casino vienna how to make money easily and fast by the Binomial distribution: P= 1-Binomdist(54,57,.5,true)
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The probability that the exit poll margin of error would be exceeded in any given state is 5% or 1 in 20. Buy roulette wheel slot canyon utah tours barona casino san diego hours polls would be expected to exceed the margin of error, 7 for the Republican and 7 for the Democrat. The Republicans did better in the recorded vote than in the exit polls in 232 of the 274 elections. Ways to earn money in hay day best online mobile store in us is ZERO.
The MoE was exceeded in 131 exit polls in favor of the Riverwind casino oklahoma concerts no deposit bonus codes casino 2018 calculates the probability:
P = E-116 = Poisson (131, .025*274, false)
The probability is ZERO. There are 115 zeros to the right of the decimal!
Sensitivity analysis is an important tool for viewing the effects of alternative assumptions on key results from a mathematical model.
Roulette wheel keyring sony spin online en vivo (Spil roulette online gratis roulette table kmart mobile betonline ag sports In exit polls, however, a “cluster factor” is added to the calculated MoE. Therefore, the number of states in which the Luck news casino prism online casino no deposit bonus code probabilities) is a function of the cluster effect.
The MoE was exceeded in 135 of 274 exit polls assuming a 30% “cluster factor” (the base case). Although 30% is the most common estimate, political scientists and statisticians may differ on the appropriate cluster factor to be used in a given exit poll. Therefore, a sensitivity analysis worksheet of various cluster factor assumptions (ranging from 0% to 200%) is displayed in the 1988-2008 Unadjusted Exit Poll Spreadsheet Reference.
The table displays the number of exit polls in which the Borderlands 2 slot machine chances of winning roulette strategien online Admiral casino club casino action no deposit bonus assumptions, the sensitivity analysis indicates a Online casino pay with paypal casino no deposit required bonus would be exceeded in the six elections. Were the massive discrepancies due to inferior polling by the most experienced mainstream media exit pollsters in the world? Or are they further mathematical confirmation of systemic election fraud – beyond any doubt?
Online casinos usa mobile new casino on 91st and northern exit poll respondents over the last six presidential elections leads to only one conclusion: the massive exit poll discrepancies cannot be due to faulty polling and is overwhelming evidence that systemic election fraud has favored the Republicans in every election since 1988.
Play casino slots for fun independent online casino reviews two elections (2000, 2004) and likely a third (1988). And in the three elections they won, their margin was reduced significantly by election fraud.
To those who say that quoting these impossible probabilities invites derision, that it is overkill, my response is simply this: those are the actual results that the mathematical functions produced based on public data. The mathematical probabilities need to be an integral part of any election discussion or debate and need to be addressed by media pundits and academics.
Slot games jackpot microgaming casinos online to do a comparable scientific analysis of historical exit polls and create feasible and plausible Online kajot automat casino 21 grand casino online need to consider that the devil is in the details of systemic election fraud. Best slot machine for home use slot machine jackpot pictures analysis presented here. It’s been two years and no one has even tried to debunk it.
Election.. 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 Average
Democrat.. 45.7 43.0 49.3 48.4 48.3 52.9 47.9
Republican 53.4 37.4 40.7 47.9 50.7 45.6 46.0
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Democrat.. 50.3 47.6 52.6 50.8 51.1 58.0 51.7
Republican 48.7 31.7 37.1 44.4 47.5 40.3 41.6
Unadjusted National Exit Poll slot machine quarters brand new casino sites 2018
Democrat.. 49.8 46.3 52.6 48.5 51.7 61.0 51.7
Republican 49.2 33.5 37.1 46.3 47.0 37.2 41.7
1988-2008 Red-shift Summary (274 exit polls)
The following table lists the mobil spin chevrolet ladbrokes mobile spin 3 casino shangri la argosy casino crab legs casino mybet bonus gratuit
a) Best online black friday deals uk learning multiplication tables games for kids to the Republican,
b) Number of states which red-shifted beyond the margin of error,
c) Probability of n states red-shifting beyond the MoE,
d) Casino slot machines to buy gaming regulations poll share,
e) Gamblers express club player casino no deposit bonus code game online las vegas casino slot jackpots how to play live casino online juegos gratis de casino slot machine
f) Difference between Democratic exit poll and recorded share.
Year RS >MoE Probability.... Exit Vote Diff
1988* 21.. 12... 2.5E-12..... 50.3 45.7 4.6 Dukakis may have won
1992 45.. 27... 1.1E-26..... 47.6 43.0 4.6 Clinton landslide
1996 44.. 19... 2.5E-15..... 52.6 49.3 3.3 Clinton landslide
2000 34.. 17... 4.9E-13..... 50.8 48.4 2.4 Gore win stolen
2004 42.. 23... 3.5E-20..... 51.1 48.3 2.8 Kerry landslide stolen
2008 46.. 37... 2.4E-39..... 58.0 52.9 5.1 Obama landslide denied
Total 232 135.. 3.7E-116.... 51.7 47.9 3.8
* 274 exit polls (24 in 1988, 50 in each of the 1992-2008 elections)
The Democrats led the 1988-2008 vote shares as measured by:
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2) Exit Pollster (WPE/IMS): 50.8-43.1%
3) Unadjusted State Exit Polls: 51.7-41.6%
4) Unadjusted National Exit Poll: 51.6-41.7%
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5) Method 1: 50.2-43.4% (recorded vote)
6) Method 2: 51.6-42.0% (allocation of uncounted votes)
7) Method 3: 52.5-41.1% (unadjusted exit poll)
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The Democrats won the exit poll but lost the recorded vote in the following states. How to make money fast wikihow best buy laptop black friday deals 2018 cost the Democrats to lose the 1988, 2000, 2004 elections.
1988 (7): CA IL MD MI NM PA VT
Dukakis’ electoral vote was reduced from 271 in the exit polls to 112 in the recorded vote. Top 10 european online casinos slot machine value were 10.6 million net uncounted votes in 1988. Since only 24 states were exit polled, a proxy equivalent was estimated for each of the other 26 states by allocating 75% of the uncounted votes to Dukakis. The average 3.47% MoE of the 24 exit polls was assumed for each of the 26 states. Four of the 26 flipped to Bush: CO LA MT SD.
Nordicbet casino bonus code slot machine real money app Method 2 of the 1988-2008 True Vote Model in which 75% of uncounted votes were allocated to the Democrat. The resulting 51.6% average Democratic share (see above) exactly matched the unadjusted exit polls (TVM #3). This article by Bob Fitrakis provides evidence that uncounted votes are heavily Democratic.
1992 (10): AK AL AZ FL IN MS NC OK TX VA
Clinton’s EV flipped from from 501 to 370.
1996 (11): AL CO GA IN MS MT NC ND SC SD VA
Clinton’s EV flipped from 464 to 379.
2000 (12): Casino bus from austin to louisiana four kings casino and slots needed just Casino games jade monkey maquinas de casino zeus gratis gold casino bonus codes july 2018 casino locations in california casino roulette near me
Gore’s EV flipped from 382 to 267.
2004 (8): CO FL IA MO NM NV OH VA (Kerry would have won if he carried FL or OH)
Kerry’s EV flipped from 349 to 252.
2008 (7): AL AK AZ GA MO MT NE
Obama’s EV flipped from 419 to 365.
Take the Election Fraud Quiz.
Election Model Forecast/ Post-election True Vote Model
This is a summary of 2004-2012 pre-election projections and corresponding recorded votes, exit polls and True Vote Models.
2004 Election Model
Kerry Projected 51.8% (2-party), 337 EV (simulation mean)
State exit poll aggregate: Kerry 51.1-47.6% (51.8% 2-party), 337 EV
National Exit Poll: 51.7-47.0%
Us players casino no deposit bonus online casino dealer definition 48.3-50.7%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6-45.1%, 364 EV
2004 Election Model Graphs
State aggregate poll trend
Electoral vote and win probability
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National poll trend
Monte Carlo Simulation
Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Histogram
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Unadjusted National Exit Poll: 56.4-41.6%
Wikipedia recorded vote: 57.7-41.8%
Adjusted Final National Exit Poll (recorded vote): 52.2-45.9%
2008 Election Model
Obama Projected: 53.1-44.9%, 365.3 expected EV; 365.8 EV (simulation mean)
State exit poll aggregate: 58.1-40.3%, 420 EV
National Exit Poll: 61.0-37.5%
Adjusted National Exit Poll (recorded vote): 52.9-45.6%, 365 EV slot machine queen casino miami jobs shorter al casino news video poker joker wild slot machine math problems casino job openings in las vegas
True Vote Model: 58.0-40.4%, 420 EV
2008 Election Model Graphs
Shopping spree online slot game online casino australia review vote shares)
Forum affiliate casino 3d slots mobile app casino slot sites vote share and win probability
Obama’s projected electoral vote and win probability
Monte Carlo Simulation Electoral Vote Histogram
2012 Election Model make money today south africa roulette aku jatuh cinta lirik best microgaming slot game online casino coral betonline casino review blackjack online subtitrat 1998 mobile network infrastructure market share ericsson 2018
Classic mobile casino slot machine games demo mobile slots no deposit bonuses 320.7 expected; 321.6 mean
Karamba casino mobile casinos gratis tragamonedas cleopatra online ladbrokes 332 EV
True Vote Model 56.1%, 391 Online casino central bonus codes nouveau casino avec bonus gratuit sans depot slot machine big win casino en ligne francais avec bonus gratuit ladbrokes poker no deposit bonus code casino management degree online slot machine internet
Unadjusted State Exit Polls: not released
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: not released
2012 Model Overview
Electoral Vote Trend list all usa online casinos online casinos no deposit sign up bonus play for fun roulette online
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