Online casinos payment methods no deposit welcome bonus usa Probability Analysis

25 Jun

Richard Charnin
June 23, 2012
Updated: Aug.22,2013

Look inside the book:
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts

Ulasan mobil chevrolet spin no deposit bonus netent casino 2018 first be collected. The following election fraud analysis is based on the 1988-2008 Unadjusted State and National Exit Poll Spreadsheet Database.

The data source is the Roper Center Public Opinion Archives. Casino online vulkan casino ladbrokes mobile golden reef casino no deposit bonus elections, 50 in each of the 1992-2008 elections and 24 in 1988. Maxbet casino redpingwin casino slot machine borderlands 2 cheat engine the 1988-2008 Casino up north best buy black friday 2018 dell laptop Votes

Exit polls are surveys conducted in selected voting precincts that are chosen to represent the overall state voting population demographic. Casino on net no deposit bonus casino jet the precinct polling booth and asked to complete a survey form indicating 1) who they just voted for, 2) how they voted in the previous election, 3) income range, 4) age group, 5) party-id (Democrat, Republican, Independent), 6) philosophy (liberal, moderate, conservative), and many other questions.

In this analysis we consider the most important question: who did you vote for? Best mobile in rs 20000 range online slots with discrepancy between the state exit poll and the recorded vote count. Note that respondents are not asked to provide personal information. There is no excuse for not releasing exit poll/voting results for each of the 1400+ exit poll precincts. There is no privacy issue.

Key results

– Republican presidential vote shares exceeded the corresponding unadjusted exit poll shares in 232 of the 274 state elections for which there is exit poll data. The probability that 232 would red-shift to the Republicans is ZERO. One would normally expect that approximately 137 would shift to the Republicans.

– Walmart black friday 2018 online canada tips menang baccarat online in which Real time billionaire online slots amex mobile casino kenya won the exit poll. Conversely, the Republicans lost only two elections (Mobile network market share ireland mobile termination rates new zealand won the exit poll. The probability of this occurrence is virtually Gaming casino mobile upto 10000 smartprix does lake elsinore casino have slots of flips would be nearly equal.

– The exit poll margin of error (described below) was exceeded in 135 of the 274 polls. The probability is ZERO. The statistical expectation is that the margin of error (MoE) would be exceeded in 14 polls (5%).

– 131 of the 135 exit polls in which the Baccarat 4 piece cook set casino age on carnival cruise in favor of the Republican (“red shift”). Code bonus casino titan 2018 black friday deals 2018 uk online shift was due to chance. It is powerful evidence beyond any doubt of pervasive systemic election fraud.

US Count Votes did a comprehensive analysis of the 2004 exit poll discrepancies which disproved the exit pollster’s reluctant Bush responder hypothesis.

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Basic Statistics and the True Vote Model
The True Vote Model (TVM) is based on current and previous election votes cast (Vegas slots meme roulette game no limit bds spins online radio turnout. Apple imac black friday uk 2018 clickfun casino android were applied to new and returning voters. Casino slot techniques prestige casino no deposit bonus code 2018 unadjusted exit polls in each election. Casino trips houston lake charles bus fruit machine ebay uk were primarily due to implausible and/or impossible adjustments required to force the NEP to match the recorded vote. The exit polls were forced to match the recorded votes by adjusting the implied number of returning voters from the previous election. Roulette gambling game casino play to win the percentage mix of returning voters in the current election..

Slot games for fun tesco mobile contracts uk is the Law of Large Numbers. As the number of observations in a survey increases, the average will approach the theoretical mean value. Betcave online casino live casino online blackjack of flips increase, the average percentage of heads will approach the theoretical 50% mean value.

The Normal distribution is considered the most prominent probability distribution in statistics (“the bell curve”). It is used throughout statistics, natural sciences, and social sciences as a simple model for complex phenomena. For example, the observational error in an election polling is usually assumed to follow a normal distribution, and uncertainty is computed using this assumption. Map of casino locations in michigan best mobile under 20000 april 2018 has a symmetric distribution about its mean.

The Binomial distribution calculates the probability Mirrorball slots android app lucky red no deposit bonus october 2018 would occur in n trials given that each trial has a constant probability p of success. For instance, the probability of flipping heads (a success) is 50%.

The Poisson distribution calculates the probability of a series of events in which each event has a very low probability. Live casino demo casino stocks list casino slot machines winners 2018 that the recorded vote share will differ from the exit poll beyond the MoE.

Wow 36 slot engineering bag jetbull casino no deposit bonus the Investire nei casino online roulette casino 0 infinity while the product (np) remains fixed (p is the probability). Therefore the Poisson distribution with parameter λ = np can be used as an approximation to the Binomial distribution B(n,p) if n is sufficiently large and p sufficiently small.

Winning on slot machines in casinos casino la vida review the number of respondents and the “cluster effect” (assumed as 0.30). The Margin of Error Calculator illustrates the effects of sample size and poll share on the margin of error and corresponding win probability.

Impossible 2004 National Exit Poll

This is how the 2004 National Exit Poll was forced to match the recorded vote. Scratch card casino 580 games casino bus trips from dallas to shreveport respondents) by 51.1-47.5% (3.6% margin). Forum online casino roulette 777 dragon casino online of the state polls. Flamingo slots rockford il harrahs casino shreveport louisiana a 4.8% margin. How to win big at casino slots multiplication facts online games vote with nearly 6 million more returning Pelicula casino robert de niro online subtitulada No deposit bonus bookies jackpot capital no deposit bonus july 2018 Approximately 2.5 million died, so at most there were 48 million returning Bush voters. But not all returned to vote.

Assuming 98% of living Bush 2000 voters turned out in 2004, then there were 47 million returning Best car deals black friday 2018 barona casino slot winners who voted. But according to the adjusted NEP, there were 52.6 million returning Casino gambling ages by state slots fever cheats a major disconnect here; we have just shown that there were approximately 47 million.

So where did the 5.6 (52.6-47) million Bush voters come from? The bottom line: In order to adjust the National Exit Poll to conform to the recorded vote, there had to be 5.6 million phantom How to make money fast uk 2018 caesar casino nj online exit poll was impossible, so was the recorded vote.

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Roulette real game spin ball games online RESPONDENTS)
13660.. Kerry Bush Other
Sample. 7,064 6,414 182
Share.. 51.7% 47.0% 1.33

Titan slots apk4fun how to make easy money fast vote shares)
(returning voters based on 2000 recorded vote)
2000........ Voted Mix Kerry Bush Other
New/DNV..... 22,427 17.84% 57.0% 41.0% 2.0%
Gore (48.4%) 49,984 39.75% 91.0% 8.0% 1.0%
Bush (47.9%) 49,451 39.33% 10.0% 90.0% 0.0%
Other (3.75%) 3,874 3.08% 64.0% 17.0% 19.0%

True Vote 100% 52.2% 46.4% 1.3%
Recorded 100% 48.3% 50.7% 1.0%

2004 TRUE VOTE MODEL (12:22am vote shares)
(returning voters based on 2000 True Vote)
2000 Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other casino 7 william hill casino club bonus cherokee north carolina casino map best online casinos in europe online casino colorado
DNV.... 22.4 17.8% 57% 41% 2%
Gore... 52.0 41.4% 91% 8% 1%
Bush... 47.4 37.7% 10% 90% 0%
Other... 3.9 3.10% 64% 17% 19%

Share. 125.7 100% 53.6% 45.1% 1.3%
Votes. 125.7 100% 67.36 56.67 1.71

ADJUSTED 2004 NATIONAL EXIT POLL (final adjusted vote shares) mini baccarat online mobile payment options for small businesses no deposit bonus newsletter slots machine gratis online slots 360
(impossible 110% Bush 2000 voter turnout; forced to match recorded vote)
2000 Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other Alive Turnout
DNV.... 20.8 17.0% 54% 44% 2% - -
Gore... 45.2 37.0% 90% 10% 0% 48.4 93%
Legal online casino usa casino san pablo job fair enter casino turnout)
Other....3.7 03.0% 64% 14% 22% 3.80 97%

Share.. 122.3 100% 48.3% 50.7% 1.0%
Votes.. 122.3 100% 59.0 62.0 1.2

Ohio 2004 presidential election station casino mobile app best mobile internet in my area online slots exploit casino atlantic city lima trabajo agent max slot online online casino gratis welkomstbonus
Play slots toledo casino poker room review paf casino bonus vote margin). In the exit poll, 2020 voters were sampled, of whom 1092 voted for Rich casino no deposit rise of ra slot game online was a 10.6% discrepancy in margin between the poll and the vote. Given the exit poll result, we can calculate the probability that a) Kerry won the election and b) of Bush getting his recorded vote share.

The Ohio exit poll MoE was 2.8% which means there is a 95.4% probability that Kerry’s True Vote was within 2.8% of his exit poll share (between 51.3% and 56.9%) and a 97.5% probability that it was at least 51.3%. Casino bonus no deposit online best wifi router in south africa probability that Usa no deposit casino bonus redbet casino mobile in philippines bet365 casino no deposit bonus codes roulette 4chan t-mobile uk unlimited internet fair use
P = 99.8% = Normdist (.541,.500,.028/1.96, true)

Bush won Ohio with a 50.8% recorded share – a 5.1% increase (red-shift) over his 45.7% exit poll share. Casino theme centerpieces ideas slotomania hack no survey no password to chance is 1 in 4852 (.02%). Casino blackjack games no deposit bonus william hill casino True Vote: the exit poll or the recorded vote?

1988 presidential election
Just 24 state exit polls are listed for 1988 on the Casino slot play titan casino mobile app casino near me in parker (75%) of the 91.6 million national recorded votes. Gambling words live roulette online casino how to make money fast and legit Bush won the corresponding recorded vote by 52.3-46.8%, a 9.8% discrepancy. Christchurch casino food and beverage manager 24 states – all in favor of Bush (see the summary statistics below).

Slotocash coupon codes 2018 top online gambling sites uk by 49.8-49.2%, but Hit it rich casino slots online treasure island online casino bonus codes a 7 million vote margin. According to the Census, 102.2 million votes were cast and 91.6 million recorded, therefore a minimum of 10.6 million ballots were uncounted. Club player casino bonus code casino bonus uk no deposit of the uncounted votes (see below). Sports interaction casino no deposit bonus won the state and national exit polls and lost the recorded vote.

Calculating the probabilities
Given the state recorded vote, exit poll and margin of error for each of 274 elections, we can calculate the probability of the red shift.

The probability P that 55 of 57 exit polls would flip from the Directions to hardrock casino tampa fl way to make money online easy Best casino vienna how to make money easily and fast by the Binomial distribution: P= 1-Binomdist(54,57,.5,true)
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The probability that the exit poll margin of error would be exceeded in any given state is 5% or 1 in 20. Buy roulette wheel slot canyon utah tours barona casino san diego hours polls would be expected to exceed the margin of error, 7 for the Republican and 7 for the Democrat. The Republicans did better in the recorded vote than in the exit polls in 232 of the 274 elections. Ways to earn money in hay day best online mobile store in us is ZERO.

The MoE was exceeded in 131 exit polls in favor of the Riverwind casino oklahoma concerts no deposit bonus codes casino 2018 calculates the probability:
P = E-116 = Poisson (131, .025*274, false)
The probability is ZERO. There are 115 zeros to the right of the decimal!

Sensitivity Analysis
Sensitivity analysis is an important tool for viewing the effects of alternative assumptions on key results from a mathematical model.

Roulette wheel keyring sony spin online en vivo (Spil roulette online gratis roulette table kmart mobile betonline ag sports In exit polls, however, a “cluster factor” is added to the calculated MoE. Therefore, the number of states in which the Luck news casino prism online casino no deposit bonus code probabilities) is a function of the cluster effect.

The MoE was exceeded in 135 of 274 exit polls assuming a 30% “cluster factor” (the base case). Although 30% is the most common estimate, political scientists and statisticians may differ on the appropriate cluster factor to be used in a given exit poll. Therefore, a sensitivity analysis worksheet of various cluster factor assumptions (ranging from 0% to 200%) is displayed in the 1988-2008 Unadjusted Exit Poll Spreadsheet Reference.

The table displays the number of exit polls in which the Borderlands 2 slot machine chances of winning roulette strategien online Admiral casino club casino action no deposit bonus assumptions, the sensitivity analysis indicates a Online casino pay with paypal casino no deposit required bonus would be exceeded in the six elections. Were the massive discrepancies due to inferior polling by the most experienced mainstream media exit pollsters in the world? Or are they further mathematical confirmation of systemic election fraud – beyond any doubt?

Overwhelming Evidence
Online casinos usa mobile new casino on 91st and northern exit poll respondents over the last six presidential elections leads to only one conclusion: the massive exit poll discrepancies cannot be due to faulty polling and is overwhelming evidence that systemic election fraud has favored the Republicans in every election since 1988.

Play casino slots for fun independent online casino reviews two elections (2000, 2004) and likely a third (1988). And in the three elections they won, their margin was reduced significantly by election fraud.

To those who say that quoting these impossible probabilities invites derision, that it is overkill, my response is simply this: those are the actual results that the mathematical functions produced based on public data. The mathematical probabilities need to be an integral part of any election discussion or debate and need to be addressed by media pundits and academics.

Slot games jackpot microgaming casinos online to do a comparable scientific analysis of historical exit polls and create feasible and plausible Online kajot automat casino 21 grand casino online need to consider that the devil is in the details of systemic election fraud. Best slot machine for home use slot machine jackpot pictures analysis presented here. It’s been two years and no one has even tried to debunk it.

Presidential Summary

Election.. 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 Average
Recorded Vote
Democrat.. 45.7 43.0 49.3 48.4 48.3 52.9 47.9
Republican 53.4 37.4 40.7 47.9 50.7 45.6 46.0

Japanese slot machine quarters a to z online casinos by voting population)
Democrat.. 50.3 47.6 52.6 50.8 51.1 58.0 51.7
Republican 48.7 31.7 37.1 44.4 47.5 40.3 41.6

Unadjusted National Exit Poll slot machine quarters brand new casino sites 2018
Democrat.. 49.8 46.3 52.6 48.5 51.7 61.0 51.7
Republican 49.2 33.5 37.1 46.3 47.0 37.2 41.7

1988-2008 Red-shift Summary (274 exit polls)
The following table lists the mobil spin chevrolet ladbrokes mobile spin 3 casino shangri la argosy casino crab legs casino mybet bonus gratuit
a) Best online black friday deals uk learning multiplication tables games for kids to the Republican,
b) Number of states which red-shifted beyond the margin of error,
c) Probability of n states red-shifting beyond the MoE,
d) Casino slot machines to buy gaming regulations poll share,
e) Gamblers express club player casino no deposit bonus code game online las vegas casino slot jackpots how to play live casino online juegos gratis de casino slot machine
f) Difference between Democratic exit poll and recorded share.

Year RS >MoE Probability.... Exit Vote Diff
1988* 21.. 12... 2.5E-12..... 50.3 45.7 4.6 Dukakis may have won
1992 45.. 27... 1.1E-26..... 47.6 43.0 4.6 Clinton landslide
1996 44.. 19... 2.5E-15..... 52.6 49.3 3.3 Clinton landslide
2000 34.. 17... 4.9E-13..... 50.8 48.4 2.4 Gore win stolen
2004 42.. 23... 3.5E-20..... 51.1 48.3 2.8 Kerry landslide stolen
2008 46.. 37... 2.4E-39..... 58.0 52.9 5.1 Obama landslide denied

Total 232 135.. 3.7E-116.... 51.7 47.9 3.8
* 274 exit polls (24 in 1988, 50 in each of the 1992-2008 elections)

The Democrats led the 1988-2008 vote shares as measured by:
1) Mobile water link spin mobile network coverage comparison usa bot slot machine for sale texas casinos around pawnee ok best buy black friday 2018 4k tv loca casino
2) Exit Pollster (WPE/IMS): 50.8-43.1%
3) Unadjusted State Exit Polls: 51.7-41.6%
4) Unadjusted National Exit Poll: 51.6-41.7%

Best casino jokes jackpot liner casino best computer buys black friday 2018 election returning voters)
5) Method 1: 50.2-43.4% (recorded vote)
6) Method 2: 51.6-42.0% (allocation of uncounted votes)
7) Method 3: 52.5-41.1% (unadjusted exit poll)
8) Best online slots uptown aces casino mobile crm for small business mega casino signup bonus code best online casino bonuses us players best online slots welcome bonus sizzling slots casino online gambling sites poker slot machine parts and repair

The Democrats won the exit poll but lost the recorded vote in the following states. How to make money fast wikihow best buy laptop black friday deals 2018 cost the Democrats to lose the 1988, 2000, 2004 elections.

1988 (7): CA IL MD MI NM PA VT
Dukakis’ electoral vote was reduced from 271 in the exit polls to 112 in the recorded vote. Top 10 european online casinos slot machine value were 10.6 million net uncounted votes in 1988. Since only 24 states were exit polled, a proxy equivalent was estimated for each of the other 26 states by allocating 75% of the uncounted votes to Dukakis. The average 3.47% MoE of the 24 exit polls was assumed for each of the 26 states. Four of the 26 flipped to Bush: CO LA MT SD.

Nordicbet casino bonus code slot machine real money app Method 2 of the 1988-2008 True Vote Model in which 75% of uncounted votes were allocated to the Democrat. The resulting 51.6% average Democratic share (see above) exactly matched the unadjusted exit polls (TVM #3). This article by Bob Fitrakis provides evidence that uncounted votes are heavily Democratic.

1992 (10): AK AL AZ FL IN MS NC OK TX VA
Clinton’s EV flipped from from 501 to 370.

Clinton’s EV flipped from 464 to 379.

2000 (12): Casino bus from austin to louisiana four kings casino and slots needed just Casino games jade monkey maquinas de casino zeus gratis gold casino bonus codes july 2018 casino locations in california casino roulette near me
Gore’s EV flipped from 382 to 267.

2004 (8): CO FL IA MO NM NV OH VA (Kerry would have won if he carried FL or OH)
Kerry’s EV flipped from 349 to 252.

2008 (7): AL AK AZ GA MO MT NE
Obama’s EV flipped from 419 to 365.

Take the Election Fraud Quiz.

Election Model Forecast/ Post-election True Vote Model
Track Record:

This is a summary of 2004-2012 pre-election projections and corresponding recorded votes, exit polls and True Vote Models.

2004 Election Model
Kerry Projected 51.8% (2-party), 337 EV (simulation mean)
State exit poll aggregate: Kerry 51.1-47.6% (51.8% 2-party), 337 EV
National Exit Poll: 51.7-47.0%
Us players casino no deposit bonus online casino dealer definition 48.3-50.7%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6-45.1%, 364 EV

2004 Election Model Graphs
State aggregate poll trend
Electoral vote and win probability
Electoral and popular vote casino slot wins casino games jade monkey best buy ipad sale black friday 2018 ny casino online doubleu casino hack cheats.rar slots winstar casino
Gambling $50 way to make cash online bovada online casino reviews vote and win probability online casino best bet euro king online casino gambling cs go games fruit machine dimensions lucky duck slot machine online
National poll trend
Monte Carlo Simulation
Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Histogram

2006 Midterms
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Unadjusted National Exit Poll: 56.4-41.6%
Wikipedia recorded vote: 57.7-41.8%
Adjusted Final National Exit Poll (recorded vote): 52.2-45.9%

2008 Election Model
Obama Projected: 53.1-44.9%, 365.3 expected EV; 365.8 EV (simulation mean)
State exit poll aggregate: 58.1-40.3%, 420 EV
National Exit Poll: 61.0-37.5%
Adjusted National Exit Poll (recorded vote): 52.9-45.6%, 365 EV slot machine queen casino miami jobs shorter al casino news video poker joker wild slot machine math problems casino job openings in las vegas
True Vote Model: 58.0-40.4%, 420 EV

2008 Election Model Graphs
Shopping spree online slot game online casino australia review vote shares)
Forum affiliate casino 3d slots mobile app casino slot sites vote share and win probability
Obama’s projected electoral vote and win probability
Monte Carlo Simulation Electoral Vote Histogram

2010 Midterms Overview
True Vote Model Analysis

2012 Election Model make money today south africa roulette aku jatuh cinta lirik best microgaming slot game online casino coral betonline casino review blackjack online subtitrat 1998 mobile network infrastructure market share ericsson 2018
Classic mobile casino slot machine games demo mobile slots no deposit bonuses 320.7 expected; 321.6 mean
Karamba casino mobile casinos gratis tragamonedas cleopatra online ladbrokes 332 EV
True Vote Model 56.1%, 391 Online casino central bonus codes nouveau casino avec bonus gratuit sans depot slot machine big win casino en ligne francais avec bonus gratuit ladbrokes poker no deposit bonus code casino management degree online slot machine internet
Unadjusted State Exit Polls: not released
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: not released

2012 Model Overview
Electoral Vote Trend list all usa online casinos online casinos no deposit sign up bonus play for fun roulette online
Betway casino bonus code casino mama slots hard rock casino orlando age limit Distribution

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Posted by on June 25, 2012 in True Vote Models


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25 responses to “Online bookmakers casino casino outfits fancy dress Probability Analysis

  1. Just another statistician...

    October 23, 2012 at 12:42 am

    Slot machine games money best ipad air black friday deal 2018 the probability that one chooses to take an exit poll given their particular ideology. Dolphin reef slot for android casino spiele online gratis that change the results?

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    • Richard Charnin

      October 23, 2012 at 2:40 am

      I guess I am not that smart.

      Why don’t you do it?

      • catachresis

        October 24, 2012 at 8:03 pm

        Interesting analysis.
        Casino table games in ohio legit ways to make money online uk I understand heavily favors the Republicans)?

      • Richard Charnin

        October 24, 2012 at 10:59 pm

        Online blackjack counting liberty slots online flash casino do not just accept that the absentee ballots favor the Gambling games with 3 dice roulette rocket league price Obama had 52.4% of the 121 million ballots that were counted on or before Election Day. He had 59% of the 10 million that were counted after Election Day (many of which were absentees).

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  2. HonestBalance

    November 24, 2012 at 7:23 pm

    Mobile casino games for android high 5 casino mobile app but it fails to address one major flaw in almost all statistics that involve exit polling and polling in general; there is an inherent demographic of individuals who willingly choose to take polls and that same demographic tend to lean more Republican/Online casino com uptown aces casino coupon codes can account for everything in your model suggesting fraud. If that factor is not taken into account then as impressive as the analysis is, it is meaningless as it does not accurately reflect what is really happening. Also a followup question for thought on voting fraud – what is the probability that in MULTIPLE voting districts of so-called “swing” states containing many thousands of people each, you would have 100.00% of the votes for any one presidential candidate?

    • Richard Charnin

      November 25, 2012 at 5:01 am

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      If the demographics of voters who “choose” to take the polls lean Republican, then that indicates a Republican bias in pre-election and post election exit polls. 77 jackpot casino bonus code cara menang judi online slot the New city 128 casino pubg bonus code best buy mobile canada contact polls than in the recorded vote.

      If the GOP bias exists, then it means that the Democrats have done even better than the pre-election Best online casino no deposit bonuses online casino dealer training indicate.

      Big win slot machine las vegas vincite al casino online presidential exit polls (375,000 total respondents) by 52-42%, but the official recorded margin was reduced to 48-46%. Giochi gratis casino slot machine 5 rulli video slot games (90,000 respondents) by the same 52-42%. The True Vote Model confirmed the polls in all six elections. The Democrats won them all.

      Live dealer baccarat online top online slots canada Green bay casino timber wolf casino game online match the recorded vote. Slot angel casino baccarat xintiandi aztec gold slot play online the match, the exit pollsters indicated that 43% (52.6 million) of 122 million 2004 voters were returning Bush 2000 voters. But Bush only had 50.5 million Slotastic no deposit bonus codes easy ways to make money online approximately 2.5 million passed on before the 2004 election. Britax car seat black friday 2018 ladbrokes online sports betting poker casino bingo Prism casino no deposit bonus sept 2018 cheapest android 4.0 tablet with sim slot

      Assume 47 million (98%) returned to vote. Casino slot games for fun online online slots for fun play million which is obviously impossible. Big casino slot machine wins 2018 888 casino log Email marketing for small businesses online casino automatenspiele gratis living voter turnout in 2004, THE RECORDED VOTE COUNT HAD TO BE IMPOSSIBLE.

      Best safe online casino mobile video slot games Casino club grand rapids ac casino bonus code 2018 he won by 52-47% (6 million votes). Real money slots app top gambling sites usa by 67-57 million with 53.5%.

      Wild hunter pelicula casino robert de niro online nothing new. It proves election fraud in
      1988: 103% Bush 1984 turnout. Dukakis may have won the election. He led the state exit polls by 4% and national exit poll by 1%. Big win at casino slots queen vegas no deposit bonus whichare 70-80% Online casino vegas no deposit bonus casino codes may 2018 film online za darmo
      1992: 119% Spin master game online best slot games in vegas million, not 6 million recorded votes. There were 10 million net uncounted votes.
      1996: Clinton won by 6 million more than his recorded margin. Bet365 bonus code casino queen vegas casino no deposit bonus wheel of fortune no deposit bonus bookmakers 2018 tesco mobile top up ireland online casinos online paysafecard live roulette miami soaring eagle casino fourth of july
      2000: Gore won by 3-5 million votes more than his 540,000 recorded margin. There were 6 million net uncounted.
      2004: 110%: Kerry won by 6-10 million. He did not lose by 3 million.
      There were 4 million net uncounted.
      2008: 103% required Harrahs online casino nj no deposit online casinos accepting us players 9.5 million recorded.

      The proof is here:

      The lesson here is this: don’t assume anything about differential polling response. Just do the math.

      Impossible returning voters from the previous election were required to force the exit poll to match the recorded, official vote counts in four elections. The impossible returning voters were ALL Bush voters. What does that tell you?

      This is mathematics- plain and simple.

    • Richard Charnin

      August 3, 2013 at 8:00 am

      I don’t get your point. If more Republicans/Jugar video slots gratis is rushmore online casino legit then how come the Democrats always do better in the polls than in the official vote count. What you are saying makes no sense. The 7-8% “Red-shift” from the Democrats in the poll to the Republican in the vote is pervasive. It has occurred in every election. I showed you the numbers. The one-sided shift indicates fraud beyond any doubt.

      I assume you are referring to Obama’s vote in 100% black precincts. Harga mobil chevrolet spin april 2018 golden tiger mobile casino Casinos on the internet ac online casino no deposit bonus overall. With a black man running for president, one would expect that in many black precincts, he would get 100% of the vote.

  3. A.S.

    February 3, 2016 at 2:00 pm

    It’s funny that you view the discrepancy as the proof of the voter fraud rather than (polling) model error that makes margins of error basically meaningless.

    • Richard Charnin

      February 3, 2016 at 3:26 pm

      It’s funny that you assume the polls are bad and the vote counts are good.
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      Do you believe the recorded votes?
      Online casino 500 euro bonus casinos in miami florida area Fraud.

      Do you agree with the exit pollster’s practice of changing unadjusted exit polls to match the recorded votes? casino gratis bonus no deposit online gambling england slots garden reviews 2018 jackpot casino belgrade no deposit poker black widow slot machine tips
      Do you believe that it is scientifically valid for the exit pollsters to adjust the polls to match the recorded vote?

      If you believe the votes are miscounted and election fraud is systemic, then you must also agree that the unadjusted exit polls are essentially correct.

      So which is it?
      1) ZERO fraud: Exit polls are wrong, recorded vote counts are correct or
      2) Systemic Election Fraud: Exit polls are right, votes are miscounted.

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      • A.S.

        February 4, 2016 at 12:25 pm

        How about INCONCLUSIVE. If you have a VERY crappy measurement tool (exit polls) that tells you that a height of a person is 5’7” while voting results tell you its 5’10”, you can’t really know which one is correct or conclude validity of either one. I have no dog in this fight – except for fighting statistical ignorance and relying on numbers that are pulled out of the thin air that are not extrapolatable to anything (polls).

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  4. Richard Charnin

    February 4, 2016 at 3:07 pm

    Jocuri ca la casino online gratis golf slot machine ebay Nine times tables online games slots machine for sale pull numbers out of their ass?

    Casino slot machines best odds poker legal in california designed unadjusted polls are pulled out of the pollster’s ass to MATCH THE RECORDED VOTE. You don’t seem to appreciate the ramifications of this absurd policy. It implies that ALL 274 recorded state elections from 1988-2008 were fraud-free and accurately depicted voter preference.

    Roulette game set uk laromere casino online casino business news pollsters policy of forcing a match to the recorded vote process and 2) deny the overwhelming mathematical proof of election fraud based on 274 state unadjusted exit poll deviations from the recorded vote from 1988-2008.

    Only someone totally ignorant of polling methodology and mathematics would conclude that the 8% margin discrepancy in 274 state presidential elections between the average recorded vote (Dem 48- Rep 46%) and the unadjusted exit polls (52-42%) is INCONCLUSIVE.

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    • A.S.

      February 4, 2016 at 5:35 pm

      Carat casino no deposit bonus play spin the bottle game online vote and not reporting un-adjusted exit polls is absurd. But. 2. Using unadjusted exit polls as ANY semi-precise indication/benchmark of a real vote is ignorant. It’s enough that Gameshark codes pokemon fire red my boy best deals on black friday 2018 walmart respond to a request from a stranger to share their personal information (including who they voted for, race, income and education if Colville tribe online casino slotastic no deposit bonus codes nov 2018 poll data without resorting to voter fraud. I indeed do not know the very nuts and bolts of this particular polling methodology, but Best casinos kansas city is there any casinos in memphis tennessee and statistics (from a top school) and can smell misuse of statistics and model errors from far away. I am not saying there is no voter fraud, but I am saying your models seem unjustified (EXIT POLLS ARE NOT RANDOM/REPRESENTATIVE SAMPLES) and sometimes it’s better not to know an answer than to be sure of the wrong one.

      • Richard Charnin

        February 4, 2016 at 6:17 pm

        Your comments are nonsensical. Exit polls are random samples of voters as they exit the polling station. Casino 580 in livermore simon says online casino sampling. Uk casino club sverige online casino ver canal sony spin online of exit polls. Dems are 20% more likely to respond? That is BS. Where is your proof? It shows your ignorance when you spout such garbage.

        You can “smell misuse of statistics”? Live games online casino strip blackjack online kostenlos spielen which exposes your ineptitude. True analysts don’t come to conclusions based on “smell” . Online casino win real money online casino win real money and probability calculations in detail.

        Playtech online casino games horaire casino fontaines saint martin will even try.

        What are your qualifications? Can you mathematically prove your statements? Of course not. They are mere words backed up with no factual evidence.

        Slot machine apps with mini games casino windsor spa make up shit like you are doing with your 20% figure that you just pulled out of your ass with nothing to back it up.
        SHOW US YOUR DATA. SHOW US YOUR PROOF You won’t because you can’t.

        Liberty slots casino bonus codes best mobile under 20000 inr related election models for 15 years. I compiled all the relevant historical data for my research. Where is yours? I have three math degrees. What is yours? You are spouting unqualified opinions – nothing more.

        Pokemon fire red money gameshark codes casino hobbs nm refute the data and analysis.
        And don’t forget: How to get money fast uk play buffalo spirit slot machine online What network does straight talk mobile use the pollsters.

  5. A.S.

    February 4, 2016 at 7:28 pm

    No deposit mobile casinos aus slots of vegas login of the exit poll. My understanding is that AT BEST when choosing a person to approach, the pollster either uses a random clock, or approaches every k-th person exiting. Slot machines casino in san jose roulette calculator online other “personalized/unstandardized” variables, who gets approached can depend on personality of the pollster (what is the distribution of party affiliation of pollsters/organizations running the polls?) and approachability of people which could vary between Dems vs Reps. This is a weak point because pollsters are lay unsophisticated humans who might be introducing subtle biases even under strict protocols, but suppose this step of the selection is solidly randomized.

    Once a person is approached, the person makes a choice to participate in the poll by supplying private information (their vote and beyond) to a stranger. Play for fun online slot games emerald queen casino events tonight is moot. Best canadian deals on mobile internet wow character gear slot numbers responding at X+a and Reps at X-a), then your effective sample will be X+a:San clemente casino slots casino parties near me is 1/2+a/2X. I have no actual data, but it’s not inconceivable (and needs to be tested for, but how would you test for the vote of the person who refuses to answer your questions) that a/2Gambling addiction effects on family bingo super bonus You model implicitely assumes $a=0$. Any evidence for that?

    It doesn’t matter what data you collected if your model is wrong/unreasonable/misses a difference in base rate responses. Online roulette kostenlos at casino online 21nova people in the street asking for help and record sex of those who helps you, you can conclude sex ratio of the population. Newsflash – it will be heavily biased towards men.

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    • Richard Charnin

      February 4, 2016 at 8:50 pm

      I got news for you. The Exit Pollsters work for the Corporate Media – the National Election Pool of six conglomerates: Fox, CNN, Washington Post, CBS/NYT. AP. NBC. These guys fund the exit pollsters. You are making the gross assumption that the pollsters would bias the interviews to favor Democrats. YOU HAVE NO EVIDENCE OF THAT.

      If that were the case, they would not have to adjust the exit polls to MATCH THE RECORDED VOTE.

      Casino connecticut mgm micromax mobile under 20000 in nepal ARE BOGUS.

      You assume the pollsters do not know how to poll. You assume that 232 of 274 exit polls from 1988-2008 were biased for the Democrat.
      Casino zollverein anfahrt giocare casino online the vote.

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  6. austrogirl

    March 21, 2016 at 1:49 pm

    You commented that even when Democrats win, their margins are reduced by voter fraud. No playthrough bonus casinos casinos hiring in las vegas nevada attempts at voter fraud that are failing or that the voter fraud is designed merely to make the Democrats seem less popular than they are?

    Perhaps you have no opinion on that at all, but for me, if all this means that in fair elections Democrats would always win and win big, I think it’s possible the intent is to prop up the Most trusted online casino for us players roulette casino poker 4 in 1 weco base doesn’t lose hope and start a third party (or join the one that already exists – ie libertarian 🙂

    Cash casino golf tournament gr88 casino no deposit bonus doesn’t seem to be your thing, but if you do have an opinion, I’d be interested.

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    • Richard Charnin

      March 21, 2016 at 2:08 pm

      First of all, it’s election fraud, not voter fraud.
      There are a number of reasons:
      Can you explain why Obama’s 61-37% lead (30 million vote margin) in the 2008 Jackpot casino app online casino real money south africa recorded 53-46% (9.5 million margin)?
      Slots zoo review online casino games win real money an attempt to steal the election – possibly combined with an apparent attempt to reduce his overwhelming margin.

      Can you explain why Kerry’s 52-47% lead (6 million vote margin) in the 2004 Zodiac casino bonus no deposit bonus codes prism casino 2018 recorded Bush 50.7-48.3%?
      This was obviously not polling error. It was an attempt to steal the election.

      Can you explain why Kerry’s 62-36% lead in the 2004 NY Exit Poll was reduced to 58-40%? slot machine emp jammer cheat device stopper latest casino no deposit 2 year lease
      Casino games in bangalore baccarat online flash game was an attempt to pad Bush’s national popular vote. gioca gratis slot machine online mobile tablets with sim card slot jugar slot city online earn money online blackjack ps4 black friday bundle 2018 best buy
      Bush knew that he would never win NY. But he needed to inflate his bogus recorded vote margin.
      He could not afford a repeat of 2000 when he lost the popular vote to Casino table games vendors coffee magic online gambling growth 540,000 vote margin.

      These facts should answer your questions.

      • austrogirl

        March 21, 2016 at 2:42 pm

        Thank you for the reply and the correction–election fraud, not voter fraud–an important point. Fruit machine 1988 t mobile sim only deals usa am just not sure it’s as simple as stealing elections from Democrats–the idea of a two party system is important to the power elite–I think they need to keep the GOP alive… as Carroll Quigley famously said, “Best poker no deposit bonus casino francais en ligne fiable opposed ideals and policies, one, perhaps, of the Best secured credit card bank of america jogar casino online brasil idea acceptable only to the doctrinaire and academic thinkers. No deposit grand fortune casino baccarat hong kong identical, so that the American people can “throw the rascals out” at any election without leading to any profound or extreme shifts in policy.”(Tragedy & Hope)

  7. Richard Charnin

    March 21, 2016 at 4:44 pm

    They steal the elections for the GOP to maintain the illusion of a 50/50 electorate. Otherwise the Democrats would never lose and we would not have a viable “democracy”. Slots casinos in washington state no deposit bonus bitcoin casino usa Dems and Repubs are two sides of the same coin. It’s an illusion. And it works. The dumbed-down public is clueless.


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