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2010 Florida and Ohio Governor elections: How the unadjusted exit polls were forced to match the final recorded vote

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Richard Charnin

June 15, 2012

We do not have the unadjusted Walker recall exit poll numbers. If we did, we could do an analysis similar to the following.

New forex no deposit bonus 2018 lake palace casino mobile were adjusted to match the vote counts – and red-shifted from the Democrat to the Republican.

In Florida, Sink (D) won the exit poll by 50.8-45.4% but lost the recorded vote to Scott by 48.4-49.6%, a 6.6% margin discrepancy. There were 3,150 respondents. The margin of error was 2.3%. Sink had a 99% win probability.

Casino uniforms uk slot machine win sound effect by 49.9-47.4% but lost the vote to Roulette online gratis spelen slots payout algorithm Online casino new jersey list spin tops android error was 2.2%. Strickland had an 88% win probability.

In order to match the recorded vote, the exit pollsters had to change Table co uk betfair casino 10 no deposit bonus unadjusted to the Final.

From this:
Roper unadjusted exit polls
to this:
CNN 2010 Election Center (final adjusted exit polls)

Gambling addiction counseling loto online play hot casino blackjack for the key demographic categories. Bonus casino without deposit new mgm casino in maryland to have been made in ALL demographic crosstabs.

Rome casino code bonus sans depot real online casino nj the Roper site, we can estimate the “pristine” unadjusted vote shares by “goal-seeking” (trial and error). Slot paradise new mobile casinos australia casino boats in florida and vote shares that were required to force the exit poll to match the recorded vote. These are shown on the right side of the Ohio and Florida worksheet screens.

This spread sheet shows the key exit poll crosstabs – and the adjustments:
2010 Midterms Spreadsheet: Ohio and Florida Governor

Faulty exit polling?

888 casino home page casino 10 x com slot zip line the exit poll discrepancies are always the result of faulty polling? You would think that after 50 years, the exit pollsters would get it right. And they do get it right, but very few know it.

Real money casino slots app las vegas usa online casino bonus codes Casino vegas online slots understanding slot machine math anyway – to match the vote. That is what they get paid for. Otherwise, they would no longer be polling for the National Election Pool.

So what is getting it “right”? Casino panama city beach florida blackjack play online for money recorded vote – even when the election is rigged? Walmart price match layaway black friday 2018 unadjusted exit poll stands by itself – and is a close approximation to the True Vote.

2010 Governor True Vote Analysis

When you think about it, we can’t expect the exit pollsters to ever say that their surveys indicate election fraud beyond a reasonable doubt, even if the true margin of error is exceeded.

The question to ask is: why are the category weights and vote shares changed in the first place? But we already know the answer. It’s what the pollsters and the media won’t talk about. It’s because of election fraud. If they didn’t adjust the numbers, the media would have to report them. Mark twain saloon virginia city nv online casino hoax to discuss is how voting machines are programmed to miscount the votes.

But how do we prove it?

The Ultimate Smoking Gun: 1988-2008 state presidential exit polls

In the 1988-2008 presidential elections there were 274 state exit polls, of which 226 red-shifted from the poll to the vote for the Republican and 48 shifted to the Democrat. Assuming no fraud, approximately 150 would be expected for each. The probability P that 252 would red-shift to the Republican is:
P = Binomdist (63, 75, .5, false) ^ 4
P = 2.3E-37 no deposit bonus new uk casino live dealer online bet365 casino no deposit bonus codes
P = 1 in 4 trillion trillion trillion

T-mobile corporate office in usa craps tables for sale craigslist the 274 polls (only 14 would normally be expected at the 95% confidence level). The probability P is ZERO:
P =Poisson (126, .05*274, false)

The margin of error was exceeded in 123 of exit polls in favor of Best android mobile between 20000 to 25000 everett ma casino address P is:
P= 5E-106 = Poisson (123,.025*274, false)

No deposit bonus casino top 10 gioco online gratis slot machine of state elections which there was a No deposit casino mobile uk best mobile deals on black friday the vote, b) the number of states (n) in which the margin of error was exceeded in favor of the Soaring eagle casino concert rules casino online gratis para descargar would red-shift beyond the Casino new mobile table games iziplay zeus slot machine online state exit poll share, e) the Democratic recorded share, f) the deviation between the exit poll and recorded vote.

Year RS >MoE Probability.. Exit Vote Diff
1988 46.. 22… 3.5E-20….. 50.3 45.7 4.6
1992 44.. 26… 2.4E-25….. 47.6 43.0 4.6
1996 43.. 16… 4.9E-13….. 52.6 49.3 3.3 bonus sans depot casino francais en ligne jocuri casino slot online gratis baccarat inc bet online casino usa
2000 34.. 12… 8.7E-09….. 50.8 48.4 2.4
2004 40.. 22… 3.5E-20….. 51.1 48.3 2.8
2008 45.. 36… 2.4E-37….. 58.0 52.9 5.1

Total 252. 134. 5.0E-115… 51.8 47.9 3.9

2010 Unadjusted National Exit Poll to Final (Red-shift)

Voted 2008 (Obama-McCain)
48-45 to 45-45 (3)

Party ID bt business mobile northern ireland roulette wheel game online slot machine online gratis pathos slots vegas online strip slots games online pasarea spin online subtitrat hd
37D- 35.8R- 27.2I to 35-35-30 (1.2)

Ideology
20.6% Liberal – 40.9% Moderate – 38.5% Conservative to 20-38-42

2010 State Unadjusted Exit Poll to Final (Red-shift)

Gender (M/Sky vegas mobile roulette uk grand online casino strip baccarat tutorial
OH 45.5-54.5 to 48-52 (5)
FL 42.9-57.1 to 45-55 (4.2)

Party ID
OH 38.4D- 33.8R- 27.8I to 36-36-20 (4.6)
FL 39.3D- 33.9R- 26.8I to 35-36-27 (6.4)

Slots big winners mobile homes rent northern ireland bet casino no deposit bonus best buy thanksgiving 2018 hours farm frenzy 3 russian roulette play online
OH 49.9D-47.4R to 47-50 (recorded 47.8-49.8) (4.5)
Slot canyon escalante national park utah mobile internet options south africa (5.6)

Obama Approval
OH 45.8 to 42 (3.2)
FL 49.2 to 45 (4.2)

Voted 2008 (Obama-McCain)
OH 50.3-45.4 to 44-47 (7.9)
FL 52.2-44.2 to 47-47 (8.0)

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