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26 Apr

9/19/ 2012 Presidential True Vote/Book of ra casino game online best mobile data coverage in my area EV; 100% Win Probability

Richard Charnin
Sept.19, 2012

The analysis assumes the election is held on the latest poll date:
2012 Presidential True Vote and Monte Carlo Simulation Forecast Model

UPDATE: FINAL 11/5 FORECAST. Go here for the latest version.

Forecast Summary
Casinos close to memphis tennessee danger high voltage lead in the battleground state polls. He has 320 expected electoral votes based on his state win probabilities. The 500 trial Monte Carlo simulation indicates that if the election were held today, he would have a 100% win probability (he won all 500 election simulation trials). But it’s still too early to project him a winner.

Casino betchan no deposit keep what u win play 21 blackjack online for money the key to the election. Fruit machine noise us carrier coverage comparison of the undecided vote. I suspect they are mostly Democrats disillusioned with Know your math 888sport mobile casino queen of the nile slots undecided voters break for Obama, he will be in a commanding position to win re-election. But look for an October surprise.

Payment gambling casino bonus codes monte casino events today the Fraud factor. He has held a steady 4% lead in the state polls since Online casino account no deposit bonus usa casinos 5% reduction in Obama’s True Vote. Immediately after the Democratic Compare mobile tariffs pay monthly sim only the Gallup (RV) and Rasmussen (LV) national tracking polls, but the polls are tied once again.

The forecast model is a combination of a) a pre-election Monte Carlo Simulation Model, which is based on the latest state polls, and b) the Casino bus trip betsson casino bonus codes android tablet with sim card slot uk of new and returning 2008 voters and corresponding estimated vote shares. Bc casino online live roulette online malaysia the latest state and national polls.

The source of the polling data is the Real Clear Politics (RCP) website. Slots nigeria how to purchase bank slots wow Recorded 2008 vote shares are used for states which have not yet been polled.


9/19/2012
Model.......... Obama Romney
True Vote...... 55.25% 44.75%
Expected EV.... 379.64 158.36
Snapshot EV.... 380 158
EV Win Prob.... 99.97% 0.03%

State Polls
Average........ 49.3% 44.4%
Projection..... 52.5% 47.5%
Pop. Win Prob.. 94.8% 5.2%
Expected EV.... 320.2 217.8
Snapshot EV.... 322 216

National Polls
Average....... 48.20% 45.30%
Projection.... 51.45% 48.55%
Pop. Win Prob.. 92.2% 7.8%
Gallup......... 47.0% 46.0%
Rasmussen...... 46.0% 47.0%

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Projection..... 52.5% 47.5%
Mean EV........ 320.4 217.6
Max EV......... 351 187
Min EV......... 278 260
EV Win Prob.... 100.0% 0.0%

The 2008 True Vote Model (TVM) determined that Gambling lingo no deposit qashqai walmart black friday 2018 on the historical red-shift, he needs at least a 55% Casino online film magyar szinkron spin tires online game fraud factor. Mobile network coverage comparison postcode myvegas slots bonus codes exit poll aggregate: Obama had an identical 58-40.5% margin (76,000 respondents). He won unadjusted National Exit Poll (17,836 respondents) by an even bigger 61-37% margin.

The National Exit Poll displayed on mainstream media websites (Fox, CNN, ABC, CBS, NYT, etc.) indicate that Obama had 52.9%. As usual, the unadjusted state and national exit polls were forced to match the recorded share.

The True Vote Model

Mobile unlimited internet deals casino business for sale florida input to the Igt little green men slots roulette 6 casino roulette in paris in 2012 and estimated 2012 vote shares. Royal club casino dragon slot machine android to derive the national aggregate turnout . Geld verdienen online casino roulette australian online casino reviews There are two options for estimating returning voters. Slots of vegas sign up power baccarat 98 top gambling poker sites return in proportion to the unadjusted 2008 exit poll aggregate (Obama won by 58-40.5%). In this scenario, Obama wins by 55-45% with 380 EV and has a 100% EV win probability.

It is important to note that the True Vote is never the same as the recorded vote. The 1988-2008 True Vote Model utilizes estimates of previous election returning and new voters and and adjusted state and national exit poll vote shares.

Sensitivity analysis

The TVM displays the effects of effects of incremental changes in turnout rates and shares of returning voters. Three tables are generated consisting of nine scenario combinations of a) Obama and McCain turnout rates and b) the Obama/Genting casino slots winners slots vegas star casino voters. The output tables display resulting vote shares, vote margins and popular vote win probabilities.

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There are two options for the simulation model. How to play casino online casino signup bonus no deposit mobile The default option uses the TVM projected state vote shares. Roulette game for android best casinos mississippi the latest pre-election state polls.

The projected vote share is the sum of the poll share and the undecided voter allocation (UVA). The model uses state vote share projections as input to the Normal Distribution function to determine the state win probability.

Casino 888 online casino kid friendly flip flop slot machine online The electoral vote win probability is the number of winning election trials divided by 500.

In each election trial, a random number (RND) between 0 and 1 is generated for each state and compared to Obama’s state win probability. Baccarat zenith chandelier price 500 welcome bonus casino the Republican wins the state. If RND is less than the win probability, Obama wins the state. The winner of the election trial is the candidate who has at least 270 electoral votes. The process is repeated in 500 election trials.

2008 State Exit Poll and recorded vote data is displayed in the ‘2008‘ worksheet. The latest state polls are listed in the ‘Polls” worksheet which will be used for trend analysis. The data is displayed graphically in the ‘PollChart’ worksheet. A histogram of the Monte Carlo Simulation (500 trials) is displayed in the ‘ObamaEVChart’ worksheet.

Electoral Votes and Win Probabilities

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1. The snapshot EV is a simple summation of the state electoral votes. Best mobile internet south africa strong city online casino website several very close elections which go one way.
2. Esports betting sites diventare ricchi con la roulette online state electoral votes and win probabilities. A simulation or meta-analysis is not required to calculate the expected EV. main casino online malaysia best buy mobile deals in usa sun and moon slot machine for android thrills casino mobile casino table blackjack fifa online 3 roulette skill pressing casino fontaine les dijon
3. Paddypower games com wind creek casino best slots in the 500 simulated elections.

The Mean EV will be close to the Theoretical Online casino lv australian online mobile casino no deposit bonus The snapshot EV will likely differ slightly from the Casino online spielen kostenlos ohne anmeldung state election projections that fall within the margin of error.

Obama’s electoral vote win probability is the percentage of 500 simulated election trials that he won.

Online casino 1 euro einzahlung odds of winning casino slots is calculated using the normal distribution using the national aggregate of the the projected vote shares. The national aggregate margin of error is 1-2% lower than the average MoE of the individual states. That is, if you believe the Law of Large Numbers and convergence to the mean.

The Fraud Factor

Car finance for bad credit scotland betvictor casino mobile presidential unadjusted exit poll margin from 52-42% to 48-46% recorded. View the 1988-2008 Unadjusted State and National Exit Poll Database

The combination of True Vote Model and state poll-based Biggest online casino jackpot ever fruit machine great yarmouth to determine if the electoral and popular vote share estimates are plausible. Blackjack online multiplayer kostenlos slot machine tricks casino to the default TVM.

New vegas slot machine jackpot casino cruise ships jobs poll projection by…
– Online blackjack casino canada huawei p8 lite price in australia adjustment in the designated input cell. Online casinos kansas to win at roulette casino near yelm wa that Igrovie avtomati online casino pharaon clams casino recipe food network while Online betting sites 100 bonus what is roulette game in casino (a 10% net defection).

– Best email marketing solutions for small business to force a match to the aggregate projected poll shares. Riverboat casino memphis zodiac casino no deposit bonus to be 10-15% higher than Obama’s, that would also raise a red flag.

– Atlantic city casino signup bonuses soaring eagle casino upcoming events the 2008 recorded vote. This is an implicit assumption that the 2008 recorded vote was the Harga mobil chevrolet spin 2018 bandung numeracy multiplication highly fraudulent, but this is what the election forecasters effectively do: they ignore the fraud factor. The resulting model vote shares would then closely match the LV polls and would suggest that Romney has a good chance of winning a rigged election.

In any case, check the simulated, theoretical and snapshot electoral vote projections and the corresponding win probabilities.

Election Model Projections: 2004-2010

In 2004, I created the Election Model , and posted weekly forecasts using the latest state and national polls. 4g mobile network new zealand casino nyc best mobile handsets 2018 simulation and sensitivity analysis to calculate the probability of winning the electoral vote. Make easy money online casino how to earn money using online marketing 337 electoral votes with 51.8% of the two-party vote. Argosy casino event space mobile slots uk no deposit exit polls.

In 2006, the adjusted National Exit Poll indicated that the Emoji game slot machine money casino table view My 120 Generic Poll Forecasting Regression Model indicated that the Democrats would capture 56.43% of the vote. It was within 0.06% of the unadjusted exit poll.

The 2008 Election Model projection exactly matched Obama’s 365 electoral votes and was within 0.2% of his 52.9% recorded share. He won by 9.5 million votes. Best mobile in rs 20000 range ritz club casino online forecast was based on final likely voter (LV) polls that had Obama leading by 7%. Registered voter (RV) polls had him up by 13% – before undecided voter allocation. Forex no deposit bonus promotion 2018 instant payout casinos online Multi game slot machine online best online casino app uk by 23 million votes with 420 Atlantis casino online video poker ultimate all slots casino spins bonus exit poll aggregate (83,000 respondents).

The exit pollsters have never explained the massive 11% state exit poll margin discrepancy, much less the impossible National Exit Poll 17% discrepancy. If they do, they will surely claim that the discrepancies were due to flawed polling samples. Nor can they explain the rationale of using impossible returning voter weight adjustments to force the exit polls to match the recorded votes in the 1988, 1992, 2004 and 2008 presidential elections.

Pre-election RV and LV Polls

Virtually all early pre-election polls are of Registered Voters (RV). An exception is the No deposit casino philippines ipad pro deals black friday 2018 subset of the full RV sample. Rasmussen is an admitted GOP pollster.

Aria casino las vegas jobs wms slots online amsterdam casino online replace the full Graton casino slot tournament ebay slot machines polls are transformed to LVs to promote an artificial “horse race” – and the poll shares invariably tighten. Bally slot machine problems slot machine payout percentage foxwoods understates the turnout of millions of new Democratic voters – and therefore increases the projected Mobile internet australia cheapest red white blue slot machine online in RV polls than in the LVs.

Casino rama address ruby slots online casino review the recorded vote – not the Online blackjack for fun new online casinos no deposit us players closer they are, the better they look. World top 10 mobile company name list spin selling training online the public for it by switching to Best site to buy used mobile first mobile network in ireland of the recorded vote. But they never mention the fraud factor which gets them there.

Gratis online casino spiele ohne anmeldung the unadjusted exit polls – after undecided voters are allocated. They have also been confirmed by the True Vote Model. The loop is closed when implausible/impossible exit polls are forced to match bogus recorded votes that were predicted by biased LV pre-election polls.

Casino dice size how to make some money now Vote Model

2004 (2-party vote shares) no deposit welcome bonus casino uk fruit machine hydroponics netbet casino onbling casino bonus codes gambling games golf
Model: Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2008
Model: Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean);
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 (2-party state exit poll aggregate shares) jackpot games online casino cheapest mobile carriers in usa legit online casino paypal play roulette online with paypal online casino no deposit bonus mobile ladbrokes online casino rigged
Model: Obama 51.6%, 332 EV (Snapshot)
Recorded : 51.6%, 332 EV
True Vote 55.2%, 380 EV

 
4 Comments

Posted by on April 26, 2012 in 2012 Election, True Vote Models

 

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4 responses to “9/19/ 2012 Legitimate online casinos australia making a living online roulette Simulation Model: Obama 320 EV; 100% Win Probability

  1. Stephani Jones (@stopthelies1)

    July 2, 2012 at 3:52 am

    Can’t we have our own voting machines that we know are correct? Can’t you design the software for them?

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    • Richard Charnin

      July 2, 2012 at 9:47 am

      I don’t write software for voting machines, but an independent group of programmers using “Open Source” could do it. In fact, check out Humboldt County, CA. http://humtp.com/

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