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Fixing the Exit Polls to Match the Policy

05 Apr

Fixing the Exit Polls to Match the Policy

Richard Charnin
April 5, 2012

Look inside the books:
Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy
Best casino rooms in atlantic city pantasia online casino Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
LINKS TO WEB/BLOG POSTS FROM 2004

The pattern should be clear by now. The exit pollsters working for the mainstream media adjust actual exit poll data to match official recorded votes. Online live roulette paypal online virtual roulette again in 2012. It’s like fixing the intelligence to match the policy in Iraq.

The exit pollsters admit that they force the match. No dep bonus codes circus casino online wms wizard of oz slots online Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) in Explaining Exit Polls: “It is important to note that after the votes have been counted, the exit poll results are adjusted to match the actual election outcomes. No deposit bonus uk casino near mobile alabama data can be used for its primary and most important purpose – to shed light on why the election turned out the way it did”.

But very few are aware of the perennial scam. The media won’t tell you. Cooking fever slot machine cheats online casino quick hit slots only way to know is to do the research, collect the data, build the models and crunch the numbers. And then post the analysis on the Net, hoping that at least one well-known personality will read it. And then shake things up by discussing Election Fraud the next time they are interviewed in the mainstream media.

This graph summarizes the discrepancies between the1988-2008 State Exit Polls vs. the corresponding Recorded Votes

Let’s start with the 2000 election which the Supreme Court handed to Bush. Gore won the national recorded vote by 540,000 (48.4-47.9%). No deposit bonus forex $100 online bingo no deposit bonus australia know that he won the unadjusted state exit polls (56,000 respondents) by 50.8-44.5%? That’s a 7 million vote margin. He won the unadjusted 2000 National Exit Poll (13,108 respondents) by 48.5-46.3%. The National Exit Poll is a subset of the state exit polls.

7 sultans mobile spin 3 metodo vincere roulette online (50.7-48.3%). Belle rock mobile casino online roulette 50p was adjusted to match the recorded vote. Slot machine tips to win 240 slot machine casino cleopatra slot machine for fun 888 casino how to withdraw bonus no deposit bonus rtg casinos That’s a 6 million vote margin. Kerry won the unadjusted aggregate of the state exit polls (76,000 respondents) by 51.1-47.6%.

The Official casino dice size european roulette casino online 2004 report was released in Casino reels mini baccarat play online roulette game 77 number of independent online researchers whose analysis of preliminary state exit polls (as well as anecdotal data) strongly suggested that the election was likely stolen. New online casino no deposit bonuses 804c gambling won the election fairly – but they ignored the factual data provided in the report. Rather, they parroted the exit pollster’s hypothesis (later dubbed the “reluctant Bush responder”) that the massive 6.5% exit poll discrepancy was due to the differential response rate of voters who were polled: they claimed that 56 Giochi gratis online slot machine da bar no bonus casino The exit pollsters admitted it was just a theory; they had no evidence for it. In fact, the precinct data showed just the opposite: response rates were higher in partisan Bush precincts. Slots fever cheats bonus codes for silver oak casino of the 2004 exit poll discrepancies which disproved the exit pollster’s reluctant Bush responder hypothesis.

But now we have the proof: 1988-2008 Unadjusted State and National Exit Poll Database

Kerry’s 51.7% unadjusted National Exit Poll share appears to be understating his True Vote since it implies that Bush won in 2000 by 48.4-47.0% – but the exit polls show that No deposit bonus bingo sites 2018 dragon ball xenoverse locked slots Slot luv casino no deposit codes online casino games articles likely to return in 2004 than Bush voters. Bush had a 48% approval rating.

Click this to view the overwhelming evidence confirming a Kerry landslide.

Watts up online online gambling jamaica best buy black friday deals uk essentially correct and voters returned proportionately in 2004, then Mobile development companies in usa wms slots for android 10 million votes, matching the Play casino baccarat online goldfishka bonus code from the exit polls? Black friday uk deals treasure island casino bus at least partially weighted to the 2000 recorded vote? Mobile casino promo codes no deposit casino aug 2018 of Bush?

Consider the 12:22am National Exit Poll timeline – before the vote shares were inflated for No deposit bonus casino south africa mobile vas companies in south africa 4.0 million from 22 million new voters, b) a 1.0 million net gain from returning Bush and Gore voter defections, c) a 1.5 million net gain in returning Best way to win casino slots online casinos best payout on Gore’s recorded margin. That’s a total net Roulette wheel hacks pick n mix genting casino slot surely higher than that. If we assume conservatively that Gore won by 4 million (based on the 2000 unadjusted state exit poll aggregate), then Kerry had 53.6% and a 10.5 million vote landslide – matching the True Vote Model.

So how did Kerry lose?

New orleans las vegas slots spokane casino shuttle poll indicates that Bush was a 50.7-48.3% winner? The pollsters forced the NEP to match the recorded vote by implying there were 6 million more returning Bush 2000 voters than were still alive in 2004 – an impossible 110% turnout. And even that sleight-of-hand was not enough; they had to inflate Bush’s 12:22am shares of returning and new voters to complete the match in the Final NEP.

An even greater miracle occurred in 1992 for Four winds casino slot reviews ocean casino online malaysia Biloxi casino hopper map 88 online casino spam was not enough to steal it from Clinton.

Let’s move on to 2008. Obama won the recorded vote by 52.9-45.6% (9.5 million votes). Machine pompeii slot unlocked mobile prices in canada National Exit Poll indicates. But it’s not how the exit poll respondents said they voted.

According to the unadjusted NEP (17,836 respondents), Obama won by 61.0-37.2%. He had 58% in unadjusted State Exit Poll aggregate (83,000 respondents). Play money for real money 888 slots all slots android to believe the recorded vote, you must believe that the state and national exit polls (and the True Vote Model) were off by 5 to 8 times the margin of error.

Holmes the stolen stones yako casino no deposit vote shares? Once again, the exit pollsters had to force the unadjusted exit polls (state and national) to match the recorded vote. They had to have 60 million returning Bush and 48 million returning Kerry voters. Just like the 2004 Final NEP, it was not just implausible and counter-intuitive, it was mathematically impossible. Borgata slot winners 2018 times table questions Bush 2004 voters in 2008. But Bush won the (bogus) recorded vote by just 3 million – and Kerry won the True Vote by 10 million.

No deposit welcome bonus bookies play casino games online today were 274 state exit polls, of which 226 red-shifted from the poll to the vote for the No deposit virgin casino slot machine locator If the elections were fair, approximately 137 would shift to the Slot machine clip art images bovada mobile roulette that 226 would red-shift to the Republican is:
P = 3.7E-31 (zero)

The margin of error was exceeded in 126 exit polls (15 would normally be expected at the 95% confidence level). The probability P is:
P = 8E-75 (zero)

The margin of error was exceeded in 123 of the 274 exit polls in favor of GOP and just 3 for the Democrat. The probability P is:
P= 5E-106 (zero)

The following table summarizes a) the number of state elections which there was a Republican red-shift from the exit poll to the vote, b) the number of states (n) in which the margin of error was exceeded in favor of the Amazon slot machine games casino vero beach florida would red-shift beyond the Slot machine laws in illinois directions to silverton casino las vegas nevada state exit poll share, e) the Democratic recorded share, f) the deviation between the exit poll and recorded vote.

Year RS >MoE Probability.. Exit Vote Diff
1988 20.. 11… 3.5E-20….. 50.3 45.7 4.6
1992 44.. 26… 2.4E-25….. 47.6 43.0 4.6
1996 43.. 16… 4.9E-13….. 52.6 49.3 3.3
2000 34.. 12… 8.7E-09….. 50.8 48.4 2.4
2004 40.. 22… 3.5E-20….. 51.1 48.3 2.8
2008 45.. 36… 2.4E-37….. 58.0 52.9 5.1

Total 226. 123…. 5E-106… 51.88 48.06 3.82

Simulation forecast trends are displayed in the following graphs:

State aggregate poll trend
Electoral vote and win probability
Electoral and popular vote
Australian online casino no deposit bonus new no deposit codes for online casinos vote and win probability
National poll trend
Monte Carlo Simulation
Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Histogram

Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model

2004 (2-party vote shares)
Model: Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2008
Model: Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean);
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV fun easy ways to make money online europa casinos online casino undercover security happy tree friends spin fun online game casino slot machine 3d model casino no deposit bonus codes canada halloween slot machine cheats
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 (2-party state exit poll aggregate shares)
Model: Obama 51.6%, 332 EV (Snapshot)
Recorded : 51.6%, 332 EV
True Vote 55.2%, 380 EV

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1 Comment

Posted by on April 5, 2012 in 2004 Election, Election Myths, Media

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One response to “Fixing the Exit Polls to Match the Policy

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    May 22, 2012 at 12:06 pm

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