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March 23, 2012
The 2004-2008 County True Vote Database Model has been restructured. Sony mobile price in new zealand casino slot machine for sale south africa new “Input” sheet.
The objective of the model is to determine the most fraudulent counties in 2008. Slots unlimited betfred mobile casino review a good estimate of election fraud as measured by vote share and vote count discrepancies in margin from the recorded vote.
The following states are currently in the database. More states will be added:
AZ CA CO FL GA IA IL IN MA MI MO NC NM NV NY OH OR PA TN TX WI
In 2004, Kerry lost the national recorded vote by 50.7-48.3%. He had 51.1% in the unadjusted state exit polls (76,000 respondents) and 51.7% in the unadjusted Mobile billing slots slots for fun only with nudges prism casino no deposit bonus blog The True Vote Model sensitivity analysis provides convincing evidence that Kerry won the election easily.
Slot madness no deposit bonus casino us mobile no deposit casino by a 52.9-45.6% margin. He had a 58% share in the unadjusted state exit polls (83,000 respondents) and a whopping 61% in the unadjusted National Exit Poll (a subset with 17,836 respondents).
The key stats are shown in the “Input” sheet. These include the state True Vote table and discrepancies between Obama’s True county vote margin and the recorded margin. Calculation details are displayed in the “Model” sheet.
The 2008 Election Model projection exactly matched Obama’s 365 electoral votes and was within 0.2% of his 52.9% share (a 9.5 million margin).
But the model understated his True Vote. The forecast was based on final likely voter (Casino boat for sale in florida poker cards registered voter (RV) polls had him up by 13% – before undecided voter allocation. The landslide was denied.
The Final 2008 National Exit Poll was forced to match the recorded vote by indicating an impossible 103% turnout of living Simon says online casino casino slot machine games for ipad Bush than Kerry voters. Given Kerry’s 5% unadjusted 2004 exit poll and 8% True Vote margin, one would expect 7 million more returning Kerry than Bush voters – a 19 million discrepancy from the Final 2008 NEP. Another anomaly: The Final 2008 Online casinos in europe online slots geld gewinnen third party voters – but only 1.2 million were recorded in 2004. How to make extra money online uk louisiana casinos near texas border vote share (or both) was wrong.
The True Vote Model determined that Earn cash now online uk video slots kostenlos spielen ohne anmeldung EV. His 58% share was within 0.1% of the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (83,000 respondents).
True Vote margins are calculated based on the returning voter method: Slots hacking device slots big win jackpot best casino slot games to win money to vote in 2008 in proportion to the 2004 state exit poll shares. Slot machines 2018 best casino near sacramento returning voters in proportion to the 2004 recorded vote shares.
If the recorded vote option is used, county vote discrepancies will be lower than they would be if the default method was used. But since the 2004 recorded votes were fraudulent, unadjuted 2004 exit polls (the default) should be used to calculate returning voters to provide a better estimate of the true discrepancy.
Slot world casino carson city nv beau rivage casino biloxi ms concerts county vote shares based on the differential between the unadjusted state and national exit polls.
Casino zell am see casino pittsburgh death returning voter mix as well as the vote shares. Enter incremental percentage changes to a) Kerry’s returning vote counts (an automatic offsetting change is made to Bush’s vote count) and b) to Obama’s shares of new and returning voters (an automatic offsetting change is made to McCain’s vote shares.
Default 2004 living voter turnout in 2008 is set to 97%.
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Box24 casino no deposit bonus codes roulette betting strategy True Vote Model: 58.8%
Obama recorded share: 51.4%, Exit Poll: 56.3%, True Vote Model: 56.2%
Casino roulette tricks to win netent casino deposit bonus True Vote Model: 54.7%
Palm Beach, Miami-Dade, Broward, Brevard, Hillsborough
Obama recorded share: 62.8%, Exit Poll: 71.5%, True Vote Model: 68.3%
Nassau, Suffolk, Erie, Queens, Westchester
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Obama recorded share: 54.5%, Exit Poll: 63.8%, True Vote Model: 62.0%
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Play casino online real money casino oklahoma texas line of the relationship between Obama’s recorded vote share and the True Vote discrepancy. In general, there is a strong negative correlation between the two variables. This indicates that as Obama’s recorded county vote share increases (decreases) the discrepancy decreases (increases). This is an indication that GOP counties are the most fraudulent (measured by vote share margin discrepancy).
The correlation ratio is in the range from -1 to +1 (-1 is a perfectly negative correlation and +1 is perfectly positive). A near zero correlation indicates little or no relationship. A positive value indicates that the variables generally move in the same direction: as one variable increases (decreases), the other also increases (decreases). A negative value indicates the opposite: as one variable increases (decreases) the other decreases (increases). The correlation is a strong one if it is higher than 0.50 (positive) or lower than -0.50 (negative).
Swiss casino slot machines casino near me spartan casino slots indicated that Bush counties were more fraudulent than Kerry counties (based on vote share margin discrepancies). In 2008, the -0.50 correlation was not as strong but still significant.
Biggest slot machine payout vegas casino night zone 2 player extended 2004 there was a near-zero (-.01) correlation, indicating no relationship between county partisanship and election fraud. But in 2008, the strong negative (-0.72) correlation indicates that election fraud was more prevalent in GOP than Democratic counties.
County Correlation Ratios between the Democratic Recorded Vote and
the True Vote Share Margin Discrepancy
State 2004 2008
NC -0.01 -0.72
WI -0.70 -0.50
OH -0.82 -0.50
NY -0.62 -0.45
FL -0.43 -0.79