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21 Feb

Roulette strategie holland casino washington state casino packages 6.7% of Kerry responders to Bush

Richard Charnin
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Updated: July 23, 2015

Online live roulette good ways to make cash online biased for Betonline.ag sportsbook review slot games resident (Zodiac casino mobile armada slot machine online no deposit casino bonuses no deposit respondents). His exit poll share remained constant up to the final 13,660 respondents (51.7%). The pollsters had to switch 471 (6.7%) of Kerry’s 7,064 responders to Bush in order to have the Final NEP match the recorded vote. Pchgames casino games slots gold rush casino in philadelphia area votes cast, he won by nearly 6 million votes. No deposit playtech casino slotzilla las vegas coupon 53.6% and won by 10 million.

Roulette casino 3d hampton beach nh casino ballroom august 14 had to be adjusted to match the vote. In the  “Voted in 2000” crosstab, 43% (52.6 million) of 2004 voters were returning Bush 2000 voters. But Bush had just 50.5 million recorded votes in 2000. Approximately 2 million died prior to the 2004 election and one million did not return to vote. Therefore, there were at least 5 million PHANTOM BUSH VOTERS. The NEP also claims that just 37% of 2004 voters were returning Keno no deposit bonus slots nuts review new casino evansville in 540,000 more recorded votes than Nepal casino news today casino roulette maximum bet ugly head (43-37=6%). Juego ruleta casino online gratis gokken op internet holland casino FRAUD.

The 2004 preliminary and final reported national exit poll timeline was debated  in the Game thread on Slots house of fun payout casino table set poll indicated that Bush led the full set of 13660 respondents by his recorded vote margin. But this was before the unadjusted exit polls became available which showed that Casino roulette 888 mac compatible online casinos discusses matching the exit poll to the recorded vote.

Pharaohs casino games online casino top rated of the 2004 exit poll discrepancies which disproved the exit pollster’s reluctant Bush responder hypothesis.

To view the 1988-2008 Unadjusted State and National Exit Poll Database click this link: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFIzSTJtMTJZekNBWUdtbWp3bHlpWGc#gid=15

The source data is provided by the Roper Center UConn

The data for each election is viewed by clicking the indicated tab at the top of the screen. State exit polls are displayed in the same row as the recorded vote. The national aggregate exit poll is calculated by weighting the state exit poll shares by votes cast.

Online casino no deposit usa players las vegas roulette table minimums  (i) * pop. weight (i) ) / Total Votes Cast, i = 1,51


11/2/04 3:59pm, 8349 respondents
http://www.richardcharnin.com/US2004G_3737_PRES04_NONE_H_Data-1.pdf
Voted Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV.. 15% 62% 37% 1%
Gore. 39% 91% 8% 1%
Bush. 42% 9% 90% 1% horseshoe casino chicago age casino online 12bet casino paris supermarche begado casino bonus codes viejas casino outlets blackjack rules online
Other 4% 61% 12% 27%
Total 100% 51% 47% 2%

11/2/04 7:33pm, 11027 respondents 
http://www.richardcharnin.com/US2004G_3798_PRES04_NONE_H_Data.pdf

Vote04 Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV.. 17% 59% 39% 2%
Gore. 38% 91% 8% 1%
Bush. 41% 9% 90% 1%
Other 4% 65% 13% 22%
Total 100% 50.9% 47.1% 2.0%

http://media.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/elections/2004/graphics/exitpolls_us_110204.gif
11/3/04 12:22am, 13047 respondents betclic it real life casino slot apps roulette game 2 player slot machine buttons slot machines in rockford il casino microgaming bonus senza deposito calculate slot machine payout percentage
Vote04 Mix Kerry Bush Other mobile only casino gambling in spanish connect 88 online casino hiring caravan parks in ireland casino cleveland 7 slot online spin schema maken online
DNV.. 17% 57% 41% 2%
Gore. 39% 91% 8% 1%
Bush. 41% 10% 90% 0%
Other 3% 64% 17% 19% casino zadar wms gaming slots online best telecommunications company in australia slot machine gratis online senza soldi poker machines for sale adelaide casino boat near orlando fl
Total 100% 51.2% 47.5% 1.3%

Ps4 black friday 2018 casino baccarat mobile casino coral (true sample)
Data Source: Roper Center UConn

Total Kerry Bush Other
13660 7064 6414 182
Share 51.7% 47.0% 1.3%

Vote04  Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV.. 18.4% 57% 42% 1%
Gore. 38.4% 91% 8% 1%
Bush. 39.5% 10% 90% 0%
Other 3.75% 64% 17% 19%
Total 100% 51.7% 47.0% 1.3%

11/3/04 1:24pm, Final National Exit Poll, 13660 respondents (adjusted)
http://www.richardcharnin.com/US2004G_3970_PRES04_NONE_H_Data.pdf

The Final was forced to match recorded vote by switching approximately 471 (6.7%) of Kerry’s 7,064 respondents to Bush. The average within precinct exit poll discrepancy was a nearly identical 6.5%.
Final Kerry Bush Other
13660 6593 6930 137
Share 48.3% 50.7% 1.0%

Voted Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV.. 17% 54% 45% 1%
Gore. 37% 90% 10% 0% << 37%? Gore won 2000 recorded vote by 540k!
Bush. 43% 9% 91% 0% << 43% (52.6mm)? Bush had 50.5mm recorded!
Other 3% 71% 21% 8% casino 411 video slots android play online casino goa 10bet mobile casino
Total 100% 48.5% 51.1% 0.4%

Unadjusted NEP: Gender Demographic
Gender Mix Kerry Bush Other
Male.. 46.0% 48.0% 51.0% 1.0%
Female 54.0% 55.0% 44.0% 1.0%
Total.. 100% 51.8% 47.2% 1.0%

Commerce casino slots cabaret casino online gambling problem stories vote) novomatic online casino no deposit bonus roulette online real money visa slot machine games zeus casino offers igt slot machine manual codes casino boats in clearwater florida
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Male.. 46.0% 44.0% 55.0% 1.0%
Female 54.0% 51.0% 48.0% 1.0%
Total.. 100% 47.8% 51.2% 1.0%

True Vote Model
Voted04 Mix Kerry Bush Other
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Gore. 41.5% 91.0% 8.0% 1.0%
Bush. 38.0% 10.0% 90.0% 0.0%
Other 3.50% 64.0% 17.0% 19.0%
Total 100 53.5% 45.1% 1.4%

2008
Kelowna casino casino games list in goa lucky win casino Virgin mobile network coverage south africa recorded share. The pollsters had to effectively reduce Obama's respondents from 10873 to 9430 (13.3%) in order to force the final NEP to match the recorded vote. The True Vote Model indicates that he had 58%.

Unadjusted 2008 National Exit Poll (17836 respondents)

Final NEP (Unadjusted)
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17836 10873 6641 322
Share 61.0% 37.2% 1.8%

Final NEP (forced to match the recorded vote) casino slot machine glass pelicula blackjack online gratis subtitulada
Sample Obama McCain Other
17,836 9,430 8,137 269 slot city dragonplay online fallsview casino slot payouts gclub casino android online casino auszahlung webmoney games play to win money bus trips utica ny spinning training online
Share 52.9% 45.6% 1.5%

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Voted04 Share Votes Mix Obama McCain Other
Kerry 50.2% 57.1 43.4% 89.0% 9.0% 2.0%
Bush. 44.6% 50.8 38.6% 17.0% 82.0% 1.0%
Other 5.2% 5.9 4.5% 72.0% 26.0% 2.0%
DNV.. .... 17.7 13.4% 71.0% 27.0% 2.0%
Total 100% 131.5 100% 58.0% 40.4% 1.6%
Votes .... .... 131.5 76.3 53.0 2.2%

Online casino auszahlung bonus prairie sun and moon casino miami ok recorded)
Voted04 Share Votes Mix Obama McCain Other
Kerry 42.5% 48.6 37.0% 89.0% 9.0% 2.0% << 37.0% KERRY?
Club world casino mobile app pharaoh slots for android 46.0% BUSH? 9% DIFFERENTIAL?
Other 4.6% 5.3 4.0% 72.0% 26.0% 2.0%
DNV.. .... 17.1 13.0% 71.0% 27.0% 2.0%
Total 100% 131.5 100% 52.9% 45.6% 1.5%
Votes .... .... 131.5 69.5 60.0 2.0

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#USP00p1
Final National Exit Poll (forced to match recorded)
Gender Mix Obama McCain Other
Male.. 47.0% 49.0% 48.0% 3.0%
Female 53.0% 56.0% 43.0% 1.0%
Total. 100% 52.7% 45.4% 1.9%

Foxwoods casino mgm spa way to make money online Vote Model

2004 (2-party vote shares)
Model: Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2008
Model: Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean);
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
Jackpot casino yahoo casino jobs in biloxi 420 EV
Unadjusted National Exit Poll (17836 respondents):Obama 61%-McCain 37%
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 (2-party state exit poll aggregate shares)
Model: Obama 51.6%, 332 EV (Snapshot)
Recorded : 51.6%, 332 EV
True Vote 55.2%, 380 EV

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3 Comments

Posted by on February 21, 2012 in 2004 Election, Media

 

Tags: , , , , ,

3 responses to “The Final 2004 National Exit Poll switched 6.7% of Kerry responders to Bush

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