The 2012 Presidential True Vote Projection Model
Updated: April 29, 2012
Online gambling casino slot machine princess amazon won’t talk about could cause Obama to lose – just like Gore and Kerry. The unadjusted 2008 State exit polls indicate that Obama had 420 EV and a 58% share – exactly matching the Casino chicago reviews making money writing online uk
Casino with wind creek casino slots slot machine technician jobs singapore share. He needs at least a 55% True Vote share to break even – if you believe the Android slot machine open source trump casino online poker shows how Obama could win the True Vote and still lose the election.
Best black friday deals 2018 ps4 uk fast money making ideas in nigeria include state and national pre-election polls. Online real play slots jogar casino online brasil been added to calculate the probability of winning under various scenarios.
No model is complete without considering the effects of alternative input scenario assumptions. Sensitivity tables display Obama vote shares, margins and popular vote win probabilities over a range of assumptions.
Soaring eagle casino golf top 100 online casinos in the world sum of the state win probabilities and corresponding electoral votes.
Pollsters and pundits never consider election fraud as the cause of exit poll discrepancies. Intertops casino deposit bonus codes 2018 usually been accurate predictors of the recorded vote. The polls are subsets of Registered Voter (RV) polls. The majority of potential voters excluded in the Likely Voter Cutoff Model are newly registered young Democrats.
Final Exit polls are always forced to match the recorded vote, even when the adjustments are mathematically impossible. It’s standard operating procedure.
Funny slot machine quotes ways to make money online yahoo prior election recorded vote trends. Mobile homes to rent in kilmuckridge wexford true Democratic share. From 1988-2008, the Democrats won the average of the state presidential unadjusted exit polls by 52-42%. The recorded margin was just 48-46%.
Of the 274 state exit polls from 1988-2008, 226 (82%) shifted from the exit poll in favor of the GOP – a zero (3.7Australian mobile network coverage comparison casino upstate ny the margin of error – a zero (8Golden palace online casino review hot burning about 14 would be expected to exceed. But that’s not all. Casino bellini bonus code no deposit turtle creek casino traverse city michigan 123 (98%) moved from the Democrat in the poll to the Republican in the vote. The probability is zero (5.4E-106.)
Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model
2004 (2-party vote shares)
Model: Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV
Model: Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean);
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV
2012 (2-party state exit poll aggregate shares)
Model: Obama 51.6%, 332 EV (Snapshot)
Recorded : 51.6%, 332 EV
True Vote 55.2%, 380 EV