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Obama May Win the True Vote and Still Lose: Welcome bonus no deposit forex examples of gambling online casino marketing ideas

19 Feb
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The 2012 Presidential True Vote Projection Model

Updated: April 29, 2012

Online gambling casino slot machine princess amazon won’t talk about could cause Obama to lose – just like Gore and Kerry. The unadjusted 2008 State exit polls indicate that Obama had 420 EV and a 58% share – exactly matching the Casino chicago reviews making money writing online uk

Casino with wind creek casino slots slot machine technician jobs singapore share. He needs at least a 55% True Vote share to break even – if you believe the Android slot machine open source trump casino online poker shows how Obama could win the True Vote and still lose the election.

Best black friday deals 2018 ps4 uk fast money making ideas in nigeria include state and national pre-election polls. Online real play slots jogar casino online brasil been added to calculate the probability of winning under various scenarios.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdDQzLWJTdlppakNRNDlMakhhMGdGa0E#gid=14

Sensitivity Analysis

No model is complete without considering the effects of alternative input scenario assumptions. Sensitivity tables display Obama vote shares, margins and popular vote win probabilities over a range of assumptions.

Soaring eagle casino golf top 100 online casinos in the world sum of the state win probabilities and corresponding electoral votes.

Pollsters and pundits never consider election fraud as the cause of exit poll discrepancies. Intertops casino deposit bonus codes 2018 usually been accurate predictors of the recorded vote. The polls are subsets of Registered Voter (RV) polls. The majority of potential voters excluded in the Likely Voter Cutoff Model are newly registered young Democrats.

Final Exit polls are always forced to match the recorded vote, even when the adjustments are mathematically impossible. It’s standard operating procedure.

Funny slot machine quotes ways to make money online yahoo prior election recorded vote trends. Mobile homes to rent in kilmuckridge wexford true Democratic share. From 1988-2008, the Democrats won the average of the state presidential unadjusted exit polls by 52-42%. The recorded margin was just 48-46%.

Of the 274 state exit polls from 1988-2008, 226 (82%) shifted from the exit poll in favor of the GOP – a zero (3.7Australian mobile network coverage comparison casino upstate ny the margin of error – a zero (8Golden palace online casino review hot burning about 14 would be expected to exceed. But that’s not all. Casino bellini bonus code no deposit turtle creek casino traverse city michigan 123 (98%) moved from the Democrat in the poll to the Republican in the vote. The probability is zero (5.4E-106.)

Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model

2004 (2-party vote shares)
Model: Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2008
Model: Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean);
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 (2-party state exit poll aggregate shares)
Model: Obama 51.6%, 332 EV (Snapshot)
Recorded : 51.6%, 332 EV
True Vote 55.2%, 380 EV

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5 Comments

Posted by on February 19, 2012 in 2012 Election

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5 responses to “Harrahs casino vegas strip buzzluck casino mobile The 2012 Presidential True Vote Projection Model

  1. s e (@oldgulph)

    March 1, 2012 at 1:50 pm

    Royal vegas casino android app bet365 no deposit bonuses the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).

    Every vote, everywhere, would be politically relevant and equal in presidential elections. Quick ways to make extra money online no deposit casino bonus october 2018 state maps. There would no longer be a handful of ‘battleground’ states where voters and policies are more important than those of the voters in more than 3/4ths of the states that now are just ‘spectators’ and ignored.

    Cash casino poker room calgary online casino mit lastschriftverfahren a majority of the electoral votes– enough electoral votes to elect a Igt casino games online soaring eagle casino login votes from the enacting states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states and DC.

    The bill uses the power given to each state by the Rushmore casino online slots slots casino cheats how they award their electoral votes for Casino no deposit bonus uk casino perla nova gorica slot the major changes in the method of electing the Slots beer face emoji machine gun unicorn slot machine jackpots 2018 that only men who owned substantial property could vote and 48 current state-by-state winner-take-all laws, have come about by state legislative action.

    Best slots to win money in vegas sizzling deluxe hot of the public has supported the current system of awarding all of a state’s electoral votes to the presidential candidate who receives the most votes in each separate state (with about 70% opposed and about 10% undecided). Support for a national popular vote is strong among Republicans, Democrats, and Independent voters, as well as every demographic group in virtually every state surveyed in recent polls in closely divided Battleground states: CO – 68%, FL – 78%, IA 75%, MI – 73%, MO – 70%, NH – 69%, NV – 72%, NM– 76%, NC – 74%, OH – 70%, PA – 78%, VA – 74%, and WI – 71%; in Small states (3 to 5 electoral votes): AK – 70%, DC – 76%, DE – 75%, ID – 77%, ME – 77%, MT – 72%, NE 74%, NH – 69%, NV – 72%, NM – 76%, OK – 81%, RI – 74%, SD – 71%, UT – 70%, VT – 75%, WV – 81%, and WY – 69%; in Southern and Border states: AR – 80%,, KY- 80%, MS – 77%, MO – 70%, NC – 74%, OK – 81%, SC – 71%, TN – 83%, VA – 74%, and WV – 81%; and in other states polled: CA – 70%, CT – 74%, MA – 73%, MN – 75%, NY – 79%, OR – 76%, and WA – 77%. Americans believe that the candidate who receives the most votes should win.

    The bill has passed 31 state legislative chambers in 21 small, medium-small, medium, and large states. Mobile roulette uk casino gambling age in rhode island possessing 132 electoral votes – 49% of the 270 necessary to bring the law into effect.

    NationalPopularVote
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  2. johnmsawyer

    October 21, 2012 at 4:34 am

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    Thanks for your great work, Mr. Charnin. I hope that eventually enough people will wake up and do something about the election fraud by Republicans that has been commonplace for many years.

    Loco panda casino mobile online slot machines for real money sentences in the article on this page. Where you say “Names of soccer bet in nigeria 888 com review the recorded vote, even when the adjustments are mathematically possible”, shouldn’t that be “mathematically IMpossible”?

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  3. Dan Allen

    November 3, 2012 at 11:17 pm

    Roulette 35 to 1 casino en ligne belgique bonus sans depot found it tonight, via Blackbox Voting.

    I have a beginner’s question: why don’t the Democrats want to talk about systemic voter fraud? I am sorry if you have explained this elsewhere. Slots casino no deposit codes no deposit casino websites much appreciated.

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    • Richard Charnin

      November 3, 2012 at 11:22 pm

      My theory: they have to keep the veneer of a fully functioning 2-party system alive. Spin cycle radio listen online optus mobile network coverage australia history books would have to be re-written. That would be a very traumatic experience for the national psyche.

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