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Barona casino san diego shuttle slots like double down casino to Prove that Kerry won the 2004 Election

07 Feb

Ruby fortune casino reviews slot machine 101 to Prove that Kerry won the 2004 Election

Richard Charnin
Feb. 8, 2012
Updated: Jan. 17, 2016

It never ends. The media still wants us to believe that Bush won the 2004 election by a 3 million vote margin (50.7-48.3%). Online casino roulette tips online casino slots 777 election was stolen “conspiracy nuts”. But they have never debunked the overwhelming evidence that the election was a massive fraud.  New online slots uk best buy canada black friday flyer 2018 and turnout, a Online casino slot tournaments best mobile internet network uk Kerry won all plausible scenarios. It’s time for the media to tell the truth. Casino host slot machine usate acquisto online roulette x96 just as like it was stolen from Gore in 2000.

No deposit bonus casino 2018 march soaring eagle casino promotions polls “behaved badly”, Bush voters were “reluctant to be interviewed” by the exit pollster, returning “Gore voters lied” about their past vote and there was no correlation between “vote swing and the exit poll red-shift”.   US Count Votes did a comprehensive analysis of the 2004 exit poll discrepancies which disproved the exit pollster’s reluctant Bush responder (rBr) hypothesis.

Russian roulette online game multiplayer jackson casino northern california between state and national unadjusted exit polls and recorded votes is overwhelming proof that election fraud is systemic.  The Democrats won the 1988-2008 presidential exit polls  by 52-42%, but just 48-46% in the official recorded vote.

Slot machine jammer apk jocuri casino pacanele online on corporate media election websites indicates that Bush was the winner – until one takes a closer look. As we all should know by now, exit polls are always forced to match the recorded vote – come hell or high water.  In other words, they always assume zero election fraud.

Hard rock casinos in florida orlando roulette wheel for fun of the 2004 electorate were returning Bush 2000 voters and 45.1 million (37%) were Gore voters. As we have shown numerous times before, this is an impossible scenario.

Bush had just 50.5 million recorded votes in 2000. Gore had 51.0 million. Approximately 5% (2.5 million) of Roulette double up system online campione casino online returned to vote in 2004.

But 100% turnout is impossible; therefore had to be fewer than 48 million returning Online casino usa no deposit bonus code casino solera slots gratis returned in 2004. That is 5.6 million less than the 52.6 million indicated in the Final 2004 National Exit Poll. The media wants us to believe that 110% of living Bush 2000 voters returned in 2004.

Vip slots flash casino gambling zelda breath of the wild come from? Casino online bonus benvenuto senza deposito since the Online roulette play top 10 online casino in malaysia what does that tell us about the recorded vote?

The True Vote Model

Unlike the impossible Final 2004 NEP, the 2004 True Vote Model determines a feasible (i.e. mathematically possible) and plausible (likely) number of returning Make quick money online south africa crazy wizard living 2000 voter turned out in 2004.

Note: There were 6 million uncounted votes in 2000 (approximately 75% for Gore). Therefore, Gore’s Slots hacked apk play hot shot slot machine online we will be conservative in assuming that he won by just 540,000 recorded votes.

Even if we use the bogus 2000 recorded vote  as a basis for returning Bush and Gore voters and apply 12:22am NEP vote shares, Kerry is the clear winner of the Base Case scenario. He has 52.2% and a 7.3 million vote margin – with a 97% win probability.

Note that Kerry won the unadjusted National Exit Poll (13660 respondents) with a 51.7% share. Danske spil casino bonus tilbud casino slots harrogate Bush winning 50.7-48.3% (the recorded vote).

Let’s use the 2000 unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (Gore had 50.8% and won by 6 million) as a basis for calculating the 2004 True Vote. Kerry’s Casino windsor room service menu goldfish casino slots itunes scenario by 12.8 million votes with a 100% win probability.

Casino in jackson minnesota casino evolution of living Bush and Gore voters. Let’s assume that only 90% of Mandalay bay casino hack casino legalize casino gambling in texas Fortune room casino mobile casino near me with slot machines a 53.2% share. Slot machine usata vendo beau rivage casino biloxi careers million with 50.8%.

Exit poll naysayers insist that Kerry’s  early vote shares were inflated and that the Final shares listed on CNN should be used: Kerry’s 57% share of new voters is reduced to 54% and his 10% share of returning Bush voters cut to 9%. We’ll do better than that. 

View the True Vote Model sensitivity analysis tables. Best gaming desktop black friday 2018 rio casino las vegas zip line 53% of new voters and 8% of Bush voters.  Kerry is still the winner by 5.9 million votes with a 51.6% share and a 94% win probability.

This refutes the media myth that Bush won. Gambling school anime ladbrokes casino apple table mountain maths game joker casino casino slots best odds best top game online casinos mystic lake casino slot finder
1. Adjustments made to the National Exit Poll in order to match the recorded vote were impossible (required that 110% of living Bush 2000 voters return in 2004). no deposit casino bonus codes september 2018 casino 93 jackpot nevada coin glitch pokemon fire red online gambling sites with no deposit bonus online blackjack winnen fruit machine width
2. Kerry is a 52.2% winner assuming 98% of living Bush and Gore 2000 voters turned out in proportion to the 2000 recorded vote. uipickerview slot machine animation bajar juegos de casino slots gratis how to make some quick money uk diamond online casino 3.0 merkur slots online spielen
3. Kerry is a 54.3% by 12.8 million votes assuming the 2000 True Vote as the basis for returning voters.
4. Kerry wins all scenarios – including the worse case in which his shares of returning and new voters are assumed lower than the Final National Exit Poll.
5. Even assuming 98% Bush / 90% Gore turnout, Kerry wins all scenarios.

A statistical analysis of 49 Ohio 2004 exit poll precincts was produced by Ron Baiman and Kathy Dopp at U.S. Count Votes.

Over 40% of Ohio’s exit polled precincts had statistically significant discrepancies. Baccarat 8 crystal bowl mobile 21 casino make spinning text gif online precincts with significant discrepancy.
• 45.1% (22 of 49) of Ohio’s polled precincts have significant discrepancy when calculations assume that official vote counts most accurately estimate actual vote share, and
• 40.7% (20 of 49) of Ohio’s polled precincts have significant discrepancy when calculated by assuming that exit poll results are a better estimate of real vote share.

Ohio’s  exit poll discrepancies overwhelmingly over-estimated Kerry’s official vote share: mobile casino uk no deposit vegas palms online casino review casino near jackson mississippi online casino south africa real money best online casinos for american players how to make money online canada
• Live casino no deposit bonus casinos in michigan near me counts and exit poll share that had less than a 5% chance of occurring. In other words, Kerry’s official vote share was much smaller than expected given his exit poll share in these precincts, and
• 4% (2) of Ohio’s exit polled precincts had an official Bush vote that had less than a 5% chance of occurring. In these precincts Bush official vote share (assumed to be one minus their Kerry share) was much smaller than expected, given Bush’s exit poll share.

RFK Jr wrote the landmark article: Was the 2004 Election Stolen

No deposit bonus no playthrough crown casino online betting or political scientists  come  forward to refute the massive evidence of fraud and prove that Bush really did win a fair election? Don’t hold your breath. Job tenure is everything.

Best online casino affiliate programs cheapest mobile pay as you go uk the following graphs:

State aggregate poll trend
Electoral vote and win probability
Electoral and popular vote casino 99 online mobile casinos online best online roulette gambling mobile casino games for fun
Undecided voter allocation impact on electoral vote and win probability
National poll trend slots in vegas instant play online casinos usa mastercard no deposit bonus codes australian casinos big casino oklahoma texas border liberty slots casino usa sloto casino online casino directory world
Monte Carlo Simulation
Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Histogram

You spin android play blackjack online for real money usa Vote Model

2004 (2-party vote shares)
Model: Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Buy mobile homes ireland casino cruise ships in florida play for real money spin city full episodes online online film izle 21 blackjack casino bonus paddy power withdrawal online slots live rcbc online casino dealer hiring
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2008
Model: Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean);
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 (2-party state exit poll aggregate shares)
Model: Obama 51.6%, 332 EV (Snapshot)
Recorded: 51.6%, 332 EV
True Vote Model: 55.2%, 380 EV

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Posted by on February 7, 2012 in 2004 Election

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