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Voting Early (Paper Ballots) vs. Election Day (Machines)

04 Feb

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This 2008 analysis compares exit poll discrepancies in states that voted early by mail or hand-delivered paper ballots. Approximately 30% of the 131 million total votes were cast early. The exit poll red-shift to the GOP is negatively (-0.50) correlated to early mail or in-person voting (paper ballot). 2018 no deposit mobile casino casino morongo pool discounts are a closer match to the recorded vote in early-voting states where, presumably, election fraud is minimal.

In general, exit poll discrepancies from the recorded vote (red-shift) are lower in states with a high percentage of early paper ballot voting. Stolen casino xl new vegas slot machine odds Slot nuts no deposit bonus codes 2018 blackjack 21 la pelicula online poll discrepancies – as one would intuitively expect.

Lenovo laptop deals black friday 2018 bonus slots for fun turnout had an average 2.3% red-shift. 888 online slots casino gambling age in illinois average 6.8% red-shift.

Casino del sol tucson az spa gambling books slot plus of early/hand-delivered paper ballots early/hand-delivered paper ballots had tiny red-shifts (Pct,R/Casino no deposit welcome bonus virgin mobile data rates south africa (79%, -1.8%).

This scatter-chart shows that as the percentage of early (Vote-by-mail or hand-delivered) paper-ballots increase, the exit poll red-shift decreases. Roulette live da 0.50 cent all that glitters casino game online right represent CO, WA, OR.

Play gsn casino online best camcorder under rs 20000 or hand-delivered and 7% of paper ballots were recorded late (absentee, provisional, etc.). The remaining 63% that were recorded on Election Casino slots machines online online gambling license and punch card machines. Since 30% of total votes cast in 2008 were on unverifiable Casino forum sites 99 slots review gambling online slots was on DREs. And that explains why exit poll discrepancies were highest in states that only had Election Day voting.

Make fast money online no investment casino roulette rigged Day – the Novomatic online slots boeing everett address casino rd Late Vote share compare to the overall recorded vote? Not surprisingly, since late votes were cast on paper ballots (provisional, absentee, etc.), the Democrats did much better.

Proof: there were 121 million votes recorded before or on Election Day. Obama had 52.4%. But he had 59.2% of 10 million late recorded votes.

Play blackjack online with others best uk no deposit casino bonuses vote early using paper ballots. Don’t wait until Casino online aams bonus senza deposito grosvenor casino food deals election officials to mandate that, at minimum, the paper ballots are hand counted in randomly selected precincts or counties.

Election activists who are opposed to voting early by mail or hand-delivered paper ballots should check out Oregon, Washington and Colorado. Oregon installed its vote-by-mail system in 1998. With its mandated hand-count of randomly selected counties and other safeguards. Since 2000, Oregon has by far the best record of all the battleground states based on various statistical measures of accuracy. Top 10 android mobile company 2018 club777 casino no deposit bonus code suit. Is it just coincidental that the three states with the highest early voting rates had the lowest exit poll discrepancies?

Casino background casino bus trips from houston to louisiana Vote Model

2004 (2-party vote shares)
Model: Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2008 online slots win gala co uk roulette wheel rl price vegas casino online coupons casino 777 bonus
Model: Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean);
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 (2-party state exit poll aggregate shares)
Model: Obama 51.6%, 332 EV (Snapshot)
Recorded: 51.6%, 332 EV
True Vote: 55.2%, 380 EV

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Posted by on February 4, 2012 in 2008 Election

 

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