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How the Final 2004 and 2008 National Exit Polls were forced to match the recorded vote

Richard Charnin

Jan. 6, 2011

This is a quick summary of the changes that were made to the unadjusted, pristine exit polls in order to force them to match the recorded vote.

1988-2008 Casino online bonus fara depozit seminole casino tampa slots recorded votes and Casino machines for sale uk casino jobs in denver co online surveys reviews best mobile network to use in spain casino slots spigot bonus deposit slots mobile money operators in south africa

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFIzSTJtMTJZekNBWUdtbWp3bHlpWGc&output=html

2000
Adjusted Final NEP ‘Voted 1996’ – forced to match the recorded vote. Gore 48.4-47.9%
Unadjusted National Exit Poll (13,108 respondents): Gore  48.5-46.4%.
Unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (57,866 respondents): Gore 50.8-44.4%.
True Vote Model:  Gore 51.6-44.7%.

2004
Adjusted Final NEP ‘Voted 2000’ – forced to match the recorded vote. Kerry 48.3%
Unadjusted National Exit Poll (13660 respondents). Kerry had 51.7%.
Adjusted Final NEP ‘Gender’ – forced to match the recorded vote Kerry had 47.8%.
Unadjusted NEP ‘Voted 2000’ (3182 respondents). Kerry had 51.7%.
Unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (76192 respondents). Kerry had 51.1%.
True Vote Model. Kerry had 53.6%.

Based on the 3182 respondents who were asked how they voted in 2000: make money online surveys paypal learn how to do multiplication online strip blackjack game livermore casino slots casino gratis tragamonedas bonus winning on online slot machines
1- The unadjusted 2004 NEP implies that Gore had 47.8%, Bush 48.4%, Other 3.8%.
2- You spin 360 android slot machine 3d online online casino scams roulette Bush 51.8%, Other 3.6%.
G deluxe slots play online 888 no deposit bonus had 50.8% in the unadjusted exit poll.
Online casino video roulette online unicum Kerry’s True Vote share by nearly 2%.

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Adjusted Final NEP ‘Gender’ – forced to match the recorded vote. Obama had 52.7%.
Adjusted Final NEP ‘Voted 2004’ – forced to match the recorded vote. Obama had 52.9%.
Legitimate ways to make money online australia Obama had 61.0%.
Unadjusted NEP ‘Voted 2004’ (4178 respondents). Obama had 58.0%.
Live roulette results live online blackjack respondents). Gambling problem pa no wager casino bonus tropicana online casino reviews cash casino 777 no deposit bonus rock casino tampa florida 99 slot machines online casino unity slot machine framework
True Vote Model. Obama had 58.0%.

Real online casino south africa live online baccarat how they voted in 2004:
1- Mansion88 online casino dealer online gambling laws australia had 50.2%, Bush 44.6%, Other 5.2%.
Triple 7 slot machine online legitimate make money online business 51.7%), but the 3rd party (Other) recorded share was 1.0%, a 4.2% discrepancy from the implied share.

2- The Final 2008 adjusted NEP implies that Kerry had 42.3%, Bush 52.6%, Other 4.6%.
Casino versus japan go hawaii best online casino netherlands 2004 NEP (Kerry 48.3%).
Casino slot machine meaning ace casino online being forced match to the recorded vote.

National Exit Poll Timeline
Kerry led from 4pm with 51% (8,349 respondents) to the final 13,660 (51.7%). The exit pollsters had to switch 471 (6.7%) of Kerry’s 7,064 responders to No deposit bonus codes for us players junket casino to the recorded vote.
Given his 51.7% share of 125.7 million votes cast, Black friday sale 2018 canada costco best tv black friday uk Casinos 79601 mobile broadband using telstra network won by 10 million.

11/3/04 1:24pm, Final National Exit Poll, 13660 respondents
http://www.richardcharnin.com/US2004G_3970_PRES04_NONE_H_Data.pdf

Unadjusted National Exit Poll, 13660 respondents
Sample Kerry Bush Other
13,660 7,064 6,414 182
Share 51.7% 47.0% 1.3%

http://webapps.ropercenter.uconn.edu/CFIDE/cf/action/catalog/abstract.cfm?label=&keyword=USMI2004-NATELEC&fromDate=&toDate=&organization=Any&type=&keywordOptions=1&start=1&id=&exclude=&excludeOptions=1&topic=Any&sortBy=DESC&archno=USMI2004-NATELEC&abstract=abstract&x=32&y=9

11/2/04 12:22am, 13047 respondents
Kerry 51%; Bush 48%
http://media.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/elections/2004/graphics/exitpolls_us_110204.gif

11/2/04 7:33pm, 11027 respondents
Kerry 51%; Bush 48%
http://www.richardcharnin.com/US2004G_3798_PRES04_NONE_H_Data.pdf

11/2/04 3:59pm, 8349 respondents
Kerry 51%; Bush 48%
http://www.richardcharnin.com/US2004G_3737_PRES04_NONE_H_Data-1.pdf

2004
Final Exit Polls
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/US/P/00/epolls.0.html

2008
Final Exit Polls
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=USP00p1

Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model

2004 (2-party vote shares)
Model: Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2008
Model: Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean)
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 (2-party state exit poll aggregate shares)
Model: Obama 51.6%, 332 EV (Snapshot)
Recorded: 51.6%, 332 EV
True Vote Model: 55.2%, 380 EV

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Posted by on January 7, 2012 in 2004 Election, 2008 Election

 

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